 Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| Mattmulkeen wrote: |
Tops - loved this banter last year - whatever happened to carled - i seem to remember some massive barny occuring  |
He he, just re-read the first few posts... makes for interesting reading actually...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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shoogly, unfortunately yes! But it has been this warm for the last week (not everyday but there have been a few!) WE have goggle tans from hell all over the valley!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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lol... can just picture it. 
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brian
brian
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shoogly, sorry your question and my other post crossed. A system can zip across the atlantic in a day or less with the jetstream in the right place ... or it can stall, dissipate and never get to us. A bit of a how long is a piece of string I'm afraid.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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carled, ROFLMAO .... excellent style ! BTW --- 3 degrees warmer than predicted by most here now , so tomorrwow could be a scorcher ........ systems not behaving well !
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brian
brian
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Temperatures should return to something like average wed-thu then getting a good bit colder at the weekend with what looks like moderate-ish snowfall on Saturday to low levels pretty much across the alps. This is no nailed on megadump however, so crossed fingers and copious snow dancing are probably the order of the day.
No clear picture emerging from Monday onwards yet.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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brian/carled, ever fancied doing this for a living?
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carled, wouldn't want to be on the wrong end of it, but I just LEURVE your style!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Hurtle, I have been...... and it was wicked 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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At one stage during the posts I was going to ask a question.....but thought better of it! I've now stopped looking at the 'punter' sites and just rely on this one...both for sensible info and entertainment 
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Baking here today. Been walking rather than skiing; bare arms, loads of suncream, picnic overlooking the Hauteluce valley. The local forecasts do not seem to be talking about big snow, though they never (never!) mention quantities. Lap of the gods indeed. The Chamonix meteo forecast, which is usually reasonably accurate, is only talking about a few showers. Am snow dancing. Was chilly overnight, but despite clear skies not really cold; barely freezing at 1550m (big inversion, it was probably freezing hard down in the valley and colder higher up). We had breakfast on the terrace in the sun at 0900 and needed the umbrella to shade us from the sun. Ridiculous, but truly enjoyable as long as it gets cold again soon.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Mon 28-01-08 17:25; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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carled, whatever you do... don't do a google search for that at work!
"(admin, can we have a pink gay bunny smiley please?)"
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Poster: A snowHead
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you could always just use this though
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Did everyone else just hear the clattering of keys and the excited "whirr" of the Google server farm then following Shoogly's post...? If ever there was a "don't think about pink elephants on surfboards" post, that was it...
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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carled, 'but I'm sure Abar-some-number-that-escapes-me-right-now will be along shortly to fill in the relevant depth for those interested. '
ooooooooo, i got to you..... haha
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brian
brian
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ski-finder, if I'd wanted to do it for a living, I wouldn't be telling you all where to find the data to do it yourselves. It's nice that a few people like reading this stuff but I reckon I'm only considered an expert on here because nobody bothers to go back and call me for the stuff I get wrong. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| abar1990 wrote: |
carled, 'but I'm sure Abar-some-number-that-escapes-me-right-now will be along shortly to fill in the relevant depth for those interested. '
ooooooooo, i got to you..... haha |
Oh yes. I'm stalking these very boards looking for posts by you right now so I... whoa... wait...
Yep. *zing* indeed. I am well and truly "got" to. "pwn3d", even, I believe the word is amongst you young scalliwags?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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brian, have you ever known a weather man always get it right??? I think both you and carled, do a very good job and are probably much more correct than i am with my witchy beliefes and following the moon! Dont stop me looking here though eh! And you lot aren't the only ones who think i'm mad with my moon predictions, aparently my mates here are buying me a cauldron for my birthday! We'll see by the end of the season when it did snow, i'm making a chart!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Think that this plenty for anyone going in a week to 10 days time to be fairly happy about at this stage. Ensembles still continue the trend.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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(takes deep breath...) (counts to 10...)
...
(counts to 20...)
Fruity, OK, maybe the thread is a little hard to find. It's hidden away at the top of the page where it's very difficult to, erm, see... obviously... so here are the edited highlights...
| Quote: |
As you can see there are quite a few lines, each one tells us one possibility of the model (in this case GFS). The closer together they are, the more certain the prediction.
The thick red line is the 30-year average.
The thick blue line is the most probable model run (and is the one seen in the colourful maps shown on here)
The grey line is the average of all the model runs
- The lower set of lines represents precipitation, following the same arrangement as the temperatures. The total precipitation at a given location is proportional to the area bounded by each line. One can say that, the further off in time, the less probable a prediction is.
To calculate snowfall:
- The 850mb pressure level is at about 1450 meters altitude |
| Quote: |
Ensembles:
All the major numerical models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMO etc) run more than once each time they are issued. The reason for this is that although they each get fed a lot of data into them for each run, the data can never be considered perfect. To counteract this the model is run again with slight changes to the original data. Using the GFS as an example, the model is run 10 more times, 5 times with the data positively changed and 5 times with the data negatively changed.
By following the ensembles you can get an idea of the likelihood of the forecast given by the main (control) run of the model being correct - if a large number of the ensemble runs are very similar to it, it is a good indication that confidence is reasonably high of the outcome. If very few of the ensemble runs show that outcome, then it is quite probable that it may well change.
The ensembles are done four times a day and are known as "00z", "06z", "12z" and "18z". They are generally available on about a 6 hour delay, so you can see the 00z until around midday, when it will change to the 06z and so on... The data input into the forecasts changes on each run as follows:
00z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
06Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data
12Z - Shipping data, Satellite data ONLY
18Z - Weather buoy, satellite data, shipping data, country data, NOAA data
Basically you want to see low temps in conjunction with precipitation in order to achieve the best snow possibilities! |
Howzat...?
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brian
brian
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carled, crawler ! 
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| brian wrote: |
| carled, crawler ! |
Shhh. I was a teensy bit sarcastic too...
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Poster: A snowHead
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Carled / Brian,
I surely bow to your superior weathergence.....I have followed both last season and this.
I see this GFS which is what I follow but have seen other models mentioned and have noticed very different numbers on netweather.tv for example which would tell me they use a different model or do they just pick one ensemble?
BTW off to Morzine 9th Feb so if you can cook up some pow for my 40th b-day that would be the most perfect present!!!!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| RetroBod wrote: |
Carled / Brian,
I surely bow to your superior weathergence.....I have followed both last season and this.
I see this GFS which is what I follow but have seen other models mentioned and have noticed very different numbers on netweather.tv for example which would tell me they use a different model or do they just pick one ensemble?
BTW off to Morzine 9th Feb so if you can cook up some pow for my 40th b-day that would be the most perfect present!!!! |
Cor blimey. There're loads of the little buggers. GFS, GEM, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMO, FAX, ECMWF... In fact, go here: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html and look in the top left box... there the little darlings are - click away.
Each model has its own fans and each has its own traits, strengths and weaknesses. netweather.tv has a very good learning area to help out a bit: http://www.netweather.tv/forum/index.php?showforum=24
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yeah but the precipitation is progged to fall as the temp is dropping on the cold front moving in. With Kitz being a bit on the low side some of this early precipitation may be a bit wet/sleety... Same goes for the blob likely to be around on the 7th-ish. Bear in mind that these temps are at 1500-ish metres, way, WAY above the valley level in Kitz and a large amount of that area. Good snow potential higher up, but borderline lower down. Not too windy around either time though, so a better chance of evaporative cooling I suppose. It's always hard to predict what'll happen around mountains, but in the worst case scenario there will at least be fresh snow on the upper slopes.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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carled - OK, I'm getting the hang of the temperature/precipitation aspect of these graphs, but windy - now that's a new angle for me! Are you reading wind of this chart as well or from some other source?
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Calling out for an expert who is prepared to stake their reputation on a forecast for this coming weekend it the Otztal valley, Solden to be precise. Reding between the lines, I'm thinking clear blue skies Thur-Sat, maybe a little wind, possible snow towards the end of the weekend, temps around freezing ??
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brian
brian
Guest
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RetroBod, a quick expansion of carled's post above. I don't follow netweather so I don't know which numbers you're referring to but if it's a free forecast that goes out to 15 days then it's 99% certain to be coming from GFS data.
So the currently available state of NWP (numerical weather prediction, 1st acronym in already ).
The clear leader in the verification stats and therefore the current leader of the pack is (drum roll .....):
- ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts, it's a collaborative venture between numerous european countries.
They run twice a day (midnight and noon) and the freely available output goes out to 240 hours in 24 hour steps and consists of surface level pressure and 850 hPa temperature and wind charts. They run an ensemble of 50 members but we can't see it (except for one location in Holland, not much use).
Fighting it out for 2nd place, the other 2 members of the so called "big 3":
- GFS, Global Forecast System, the model of NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, a US govt agency.
They run 4 times a day (every 6 hours) and the entire dataset is published for free by a variety of sites out to 384 hours in 6 hour steps (the first 180 hours at 3 hour steps). You get everything with this one, pressure, precip, temp/wind at various heights etc. etc. They run an ensemble of 20 members.
- UKMO, our own UK Met Office.
They run twice a day (midnight and noon) and publish pressure charts out to 144 hours in 12 hour steps to T+96 then 24 hour steps. They also publish temp and precip charts out to 72 hours. No free ensemble data, don't know what they do.
So that's the 3 it's worth looking at. Then we have the "lesser models". Actually that tag is a little unfair on ...
- GEM, the Canadian model, which isn't far off GFS and UKMO these days.
... but these aren't much cop:
- JMA, Japan
- NOGAPS, the US Navy
- DWD, the Germans
On top of that little lot, we have the FAX charts. These are produced by actual human forecasters using the model output and they draw on the fronts, troughs etc. This requires a pretty high degree of skill. It can be quite illuminating to look at the met office's ones though, as they have full access to their own model (obviously) but also the ECM and GFS, so you can sometimes get an idea of which model the real experts have confidence in.
So where can I look at all this stuff, brian, I (don't) hear you cry ? 
Why at http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
and http://meteociel.fr/modeles/
of course !
Happy weather watching. 
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| AlexF wrote: |
| carled - OK, I'm getting the hang of the temperature/precipitation aspect of these graphs, but windy - now that's a new angle for me! Are you reading wind of this chart as well or from some other source? |
Not wind from the 850hpa chart. Another set of charts from wetterzentrale as per Brian's post just above.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Brian, I've posted your detailed thread into the beginners guide....hope thats ok 
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brian
brian
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masmith, ah, our premium service, how would you like my bank details ?
Oh, ok then,  This is what it looks like now, but detail will likely change a bit, Sunday is 5 days away which is really too far out for detail.
Thurs - sunny, FL peaking around 1500m.
Fri - clouding over, wind picking up a bit, FL rising to 1800m or so.
overnight snow (not huge amounts) down to 1000m or so then
Sat - much colder, FL right down to valley floor, skies clearing
Sun - cold and sunny
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FAQ
act like that, thank God 
I do quite like you now, honest... (admin, can we have a pink gay bunny smiley please?) 
