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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?
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I asked the very same question NSEW

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=1929992&highlight=wakkitt#1929992
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Gaza wrote:
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?


My interpretation - The Northern side of the SW to NE running Alpine ridge - weather fronts arriving from the NW in many cases are trapped on that side of the ridge - similar to that of Atlantic weather fronts getting trapped on the Manchester side of the Pennines.

If I'm wrong I would like to know the correct answer - I think you could probably extend my red area a little further south on the French end.



Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Thu 3-12-15 11:42; edited 1 time in total
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AthersT wrote:

If I'm wrong I would like to know the correct answer.


Glad I'm not the only one who isn't sure. Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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@Gaza, and here's some more from the archives... The HISTALP link is good for north versus south.

Quote:
mheadbee, the Portes du Soleil are in the north and the west.

See this from last year. Linking to the year before. Few of the resorts have crossed from one side of the Alps to the other in the intervening period.

nozawaonsen wrote:
In terms of the geography of the Alps have a look at this from last year (click on the HISTALP link).

nozawaonsen wrote:


HISTALP has a useful map, but I tend to think of the Eastern Alps as roughly east of a line between Lake Constance (Bodensee) and Lake Como (so further west than it appears on the HISTALP map).



Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Thu 3-12-15 11:49; edited 1 time in total
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Gaza wrote:
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?


I would always answer this by suggesting that you draw a line extending east to west through the middle of Lake Geneva.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, but the HISTLAP link seems to have been removed as I'm getting "404 Not Found".
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@downhillalltheway, and if the Alps followed that line exactly you'd be exactly right.
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@Gaza, check again I've dusted it off.
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downhillalltheway wrote:
Gaza wrote:
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?


I would always answer this by suggesting that you draw a line extending east to west through the middle of Lake Geneva.


Doesn't quite work as the Alps are on a crescent.

If you were to draw a line along that crescent to represent the main alpine ridge, everything on the North side of it would count as the Northern Alps. At least that's the most useful way to think of it in weather terms, as they are the area that will pick up snow from the North.

As discussed recently on another thread, you can get resorts at the same latitude that are technically on different sides of the main ridge, and so pick up snow from different directions.

Everything probably gets a bit blurred to the SW of the crescent, where you go West-East to cross the ridge, though still the Western side would pick up significantly more snow from a system coming from the North than the East side would.
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@clarky999's crescent is the thick black east west line on the HISTALP map linked above.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
GFS 06z still has light snowfall in 09 December for the northern Alps.



FI then brings further snow showers around 12 December before getting more serious 15-17 December. Although one shouldn't take that er seriously at this stage.
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 You know it makes sense.
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Gaza wrote:
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?



Think of the European Alps as a "banana" (not a tummy banana).

The northern bit is the top half of it.

Most of France, some of Switzerland and Austria, all of Germany, etc.

The southern Alps is mostly Italy, a bit of Switzerland and Austria, etc.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS 06z still has light snowfall in 09 December for the northern Alps.



FI then brings further snow showers around 12 December before getting more serious 15-17 December. Although one shouldn't take that er seriously at this stage.



Scotland set to get pounded next week.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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I think that chart just happens to have an 8 and a 3 near to each other over Scotland. Not 83.
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nozawaonsen. Would you mind posting the link to your map of snow fall forecast? I have been wandering round the Wetterzentrale site randomly clicking buttons but I have no German and am not getting very far. Thanks
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@chomski, change it to 00, 06, 12, 18 to get the run you want.

http://www2.wetter3.de/Animation_06_UTC_05Grad/180_24.gif

Treat it with a fair degree of caution, it is just a graphic representation of the op run, but it gives you a rough idea.
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So we are looking at a cooling down with a little bit of precipitation from the 8th/9th?
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@roscoeh, a very brief one if GFS is right. Beyond that hard to tell. ECM seems to want it colder.

Incidentally very cold way above the Arctic.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_30_2015_merra.pdf

Strong polar vortex and + AO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html
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wakkitt wrote:
I asked the very same question NSEW

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?p=1929992&highlight=wakkitt#1929992


The most interesting statistic from that thread is that in 11/12 we were at page 30 by this time and this year we are only at page 21. The weather is clearly less interesting this season.
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It's us lurkers not making any input
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Pretty nice conditions on the Chamrousse cross country trails at around 1600 meters. They've done a good prep on 30cm of snow. Not the icy conditions found elsewhere. That said, I managed to break a ski having a downhill race with a guy who was clearly much much better than me, doh!



You can see the snow has melted off the SE facing slopes in the background in the Arselle area. Surprisingly not as warm as yesterday but the FL is still around 3500m in the French N.A. It was odd skiing around as you occasionally skied through pockets of warm air mixed in with the cold. Temp was 5C at a resort level at 10.30am (1700m) and exactly 5C at 800m and at valley level at 230 m. Looks smoggy in Grenoble with the pollution level at "mediocre" today, falling to "mauvais" tomorrow. It is much worse in Lyon mind, I was cycling there last Friday and the air was foul.

We're expecting 3-5cm on Saturday, not a lot but always welcome.


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Thu 3-12-15 15:21; edited 1 time in total
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@roscoeh, a very brief one if GFS is right. Beyond that hard to tell. ECM seems to want it colder.

Incidentally very cold way above the Arctic.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_30_2015_merra.pdf

Strong polar vortex and + AO

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index.html


Which could lead to, if my understanding is correct, a disruption to the polar vortex and much colder weather over the UK in the latter part of the winter. I think that is what occurred 2 or 3 years ago and we had a long cold and snowy spell through March and in to April. I skied at a near empty Glenshee in some of the best conditions I've ever seen there in late March/early April.

EDIT - These were taken on 4th April 2013



Caenlochan from the Meall Odhar Cafe



Sunnyside



Top of Cairnwell over looking Scotland's "3 Valleys" - Glas Moal in the far background



The Mighty Maol

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nice pics for april in scotland

A lot of temperature inversion going on at the moment here in the alps....had a quick check of the temps last night about 11pm, and it read thonon (lake level) -3, morzine +5, avoriaz +10.
But it feels very cold down by the lake today, thick fog, must be clear skies above resorts......think the worst is behind us. Am chopping wood like crazy.
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@Gaza, my take is that the current cold temperatures over the pole and strength of the vortex won't in themselves lead to colder surface temperatures in Europe. It's the strength of the vortex which is leading to a +AO and +NAO and driving the mild stormy weather across the Atlantic. However, if the vortex weakens and is disrupted that could see cold air spilling down into Europe. One route to this would be a SSW event which I understand to be more likely later in winter in El Niño years.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
12z GFS just about holds onto some snow showers for 09 December, but doesn't seem that keen. Get's involved around 15-16 December again, but obviously FI la la land at this stage. ECM was good this morning so will be interesting to see if it follows up this evening.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS just about holds onto some snow showers for 09 December, but doesn't seem that keen. Get's involved around 15-16 December again, but obviously FI la la land at this stage. ECM was good this morning so will be interesting to see if it follows up this evening.


Keeping everything crossed rolling eyes
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langball wrote:
nice pics for april in scotland

A lot of temperature inversion going on at the moment here in the alps....had a quick check of the temps last night about 11pm, and it read thonon (lake level) -3, morzine +5, avoriaz +10.
But it feels very cold down by the lake today, thick fog, must be clear skies above resorts......think the worst is behind us. Am chopping wood like crazy.


Temperature inversions common this time of year apparently.

At 5pm today, top of Kitzbuhel was showing 10°C, resort level in Saalbach (i.e. next door) showing 0°C.

Loads of toothpaste blobs of artificial stuff on lower slopes at Saalbach. And shots of near empty reservoirs. Seems they've been making snow like mad and much of it will go, especially lower down. Wouldn't like their water and electricity bills.
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Gloom and Doom.
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ECM keeps it mild this time round...
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nozawaonsen wrote:
ECM keeps it mild this time round...


Ffs. May as well take my bike at this rate.
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AthersT wrote:
Gaza wrote:
Can someone help me understand what constitutes the "Northern Alps"?


My interpretation - The Northern side of the SW to NE running Alpine ridge - weather fronts arriving from the NW in many cases are trapped on that side of the ridge - similar to that of Atlantic weather fronts getting trapped on the Manchester side of the Pennines.

If I'm wrong I would like to know the correct answer - I think you could probably extend my red area a little further south on the French end.



Yes, I would extend that red line down to include all of the Savoie and even the Isere. Basically anything north of Grenoble, and sometimes a bit south of it too. Alpe d'Huez and Les 2 Alpes, for example, are normally thought of as being in the southern French Alps, but weather-wise I would classify them as just in the north. The Col du Lauteret would be my dividing line. Most of Austria I would classify as "northern Alps" except Carinthia and (most) of Osttirol. Switzerland is a bit trickier, but if you were to draw a line roughly from Zermatt up to Andermatt and across to the Fluelapass, anything north and west of that is "north. This is just a rough guide of course, there are considerable overlaps when we talk about southerly and northerly weather patterns.
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> Alpe d'Huez and Les 2 Alpes, for example, are normally thought of as being in the southern French Alps

Only by people who don't know geography.

The Southern Alps begin at the Lauteret and at Lus-la-Croix-Haute south of Grenoble. The Vercors can be thought of as the Northern Alps, for the most part. The Drome in the Southern Alps. La Grave is in the Northern Alps, Serre Chevalier in the Southern Alps.
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@weathertoski, agree with you about Alpe d'Huez and Les 2 Alpes weatherwise - think they did quite well out of the recent "northerly" storms? Whereas Serre Chevalier on the other side of the Lauteret got much less.
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A Scottish ski area was open tonight with a nice covering of snow.





I felt very smug tonight when people were struggling to get up the hill and slipping and sliding in the car park but we just scooted on as normal thanks to 4x4 and winter tyres! Toofy Grin
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@Gaza, didn't see you, guess you left around time I arrived, 6pm? Then skied freshies over plastic with my LSRA trainees all evening Happy

Coming in I nearly made it up the road but had to stop at the last steep bit due to another vehicle in front. Even with winter tyres I couldn't move again, but snow socks took just a minute or two to get on and got me into the car park.
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Hi @balernoStu, I was up doing my induction with Emma. We left at around that time. TK was busy with the pick-up trying to get grit down and cars moving as we left. We got home okay although it took Sheena 2 hours to get home from Murrayfield. Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

Oscar was up with me and spitting feathers that he didn't have any kit with him. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead
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Gaza wrote:
Oscar was up with me and spitting feathers that he didn't have any kit with him. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin Toofy Grin snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead


Ouch!
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Ha ha lovely, not gets much better than anempty Hillend with a little snow. awesome.
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