 Poster: A snowHead
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Thanks carled 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Next five days aren't looking great.
MetO models show it getting very warm by Friday with 14 degrees in Geneva and 15 degrees in Berne 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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any ideas how long this one is hanging on for?
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1st posting on this thread, Thanks everyone for sharing your knowledge - let's hope the prediction of cooler weather 21ish comes about, I have a few weeks yet before i go to Wengen, Fingers crossed. What a c**p season so far.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Saved this image on imageshack as it's a classic example of the control run being a mild outlier. Look at all the ensemble runs, then look at the ensemble mean (thicker grey line) then look at the blue control-run! It's the mildest of all of them and scarcely supported at all.
This is why the charts can swing around so much. This run, on the charts, would NOT have looked good. The next run on the mean of these ensembles would look pretty spectacular.
It's also pretty rare to get such a good agreement between ensembles so far out and is promising, to say the least...
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carled, It may be getting cold but doesn't look like a great deal of snow; what do you think?
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To be honest, the snow is a little secondary. It's so unpredictable that as long as there are sings of precip, it can always surprise us and dump more than predicted anyway. The cold temps are needed to get snow cannons going and preserve what's there and what falls. The precipitaion is shown as bubbling along with a constant 10-20cm a day there and after a few days of that, I'll be happy with the accumulated fall. Remember, the graph shows mm of rain and this translates to lots more snow than rain.
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carled, would you mind giving me your thoughts on todays 00z run? I'm just a little concerned that the mild temperatures could ruin what looks like good precipitation (hopefully snow!). It's for Bansko, Bulgaria.
Please and thank you.
http://85.214.49.20/wz/pics/MS_2342_ens.png
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| carled wrote: |
| The precipitaion is shown as bubbling along with a constant 10-20cm a day there and after a few days of that, I'll be happy with the accumulated fall. Remember, the graph shows mm of rain and this translates to lots more snow than rain. |
If the scale is mm, doesn't that translate (roughly) into cm of snow (ie 1:10)? That would imply 1-2cm snow per day wouldn't it?
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laundryman, only if you subscribe to the 1:10 way of thinking. I don't. I'm basing my estimations on previous falls and what the charts were showing then. I may be wrong. I'm guessing! Slightly-educated guessing, perhaps, but guessing none the less.
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brian
brian
Guest
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laundryman, yes 1:10 is about right ... but the scale refers to 6 hour periods, so if the lump of precip lasts over the 24 hour period then it would be more like 8cm or whatever.
In my experience (and probably anyone else's who's followed snow-forecast  ) GFS is not very good at estimating precipitation amounts, certainly not at more than a couple of days out.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, I guess that's nothing more than a very rough rule of thumb. Anyway, I hope you're right!! 
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| Quote: |
In my experience (and probably anyone else's who's followed snow-forecast ) GFS is not very good at estimating precipitation amounts, certainly not at more than a couple of days out.
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That's my experience, too, and for the past year or so, since I've been looking at snow-forecast, I have found they tend to underestimate the snowfall quantities, whilst being reasonably accurate in the short term about whether there will be some precipitation. The amount of precipitation is also more localised, especially in the mountains, than some other factors; most of us are familiar with two completely different weathers, on different side of even a modest mountain, especially in terms of cloud cover. If temps are coming down, that will be a big relief. 
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You know it makes sense.
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| brian wrote: |
| laundryman, yes 1:10 is about right ... but the scale refers to 6 hour periods, so if the lump of precip lasts over the 24 hour period then it would be more like 8cm or whatever. |
Ah, I didn't appreciate that.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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It's worth noting that the 1:10 rule can be a long way out and is very dependant on the type of snow. That said, I think that as some regions tend towards certain types of snow it will work well in some places if not in others. So if it's been good in the Alps then stick with it, but I *think* it doesn't work well in parts of the US & Canada.
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Poster: A snowHead
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skanky, and almost certainly not for whatever British Rail is called these days!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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laundryman, lol. But tbf when I lived in the SE with both of the "major" snow events recently, I was the only one getting the train and not only did I get home less late than anyone else from work, on one occasion, despite living considerably further away than anyone else, I was the only one who got in the next morning.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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how we looking?any change?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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bumpety-bump (keep having to rummage through the posts to find this one with the useful chart links!)
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Hornster, Based on this report does it look like agoodish time to go on 26th Jan? as I am.
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SP1R1T, I would say so, yes. I'm flying out on the 27th Jan and am confident that I will be skiing on a good layer of fresh snow.
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keep this positive vibe going people........... Schladming on the 27th
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I have just seen the forescast on avalanche-net.com for Chamonix 1050m. Tonight +5c, Wednesday night -24c - A 31c degree swing
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Frosty the Snowman, er ... 29?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Evening of 26th Jan, I'm arriving at Longefoy (below Montalbert, Aime/La Plagne).
It's certainly looking good.
I guess conditions will be like the first heavy dump in November or sommat like that.
I remember going to Zermatt a few years ago and the sunny mountains being bare brown rock everywhere. You can imagine how great it was to have it dump down on the Monday, and enjoy skiing even down to street level. I guess Morzine and other PDS villages may be so transformed in the middle of next week sometime.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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crosbie, Really do hope so 
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You know it makes sense.
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Frosty the Snowman, 29.......31....... who cares as long as it drops by one of the two  ready for this precipitation that appears to be in the forecasts
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
I guess Morzine and other PDS villages may be so transformed in the middle of next week sometime.
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Fingers crossed. They, like us and everywhere else below 2500m has been deluged with rain for the last 24 hours. I am maybe paranoid but why can I get nothing from snow-forecast since 6pm last night. Is their computer programmed not to give us news if it's too bad? We went to the Belleville side of Les Contamines with a view to a day's skiing but a couple of pisteurs in the bar at the bottom told us it had poured with rain all night up to 2500m and the visibility was very poor, so we didn't bother. The disconsolate man in the empty ski hire shop pulled a very Gallic face and said he was expecting only "un peu" de la neige next week. Let's hope he's wrong. Very wrong. 
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Poster: A snowHead
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Frosty the Snowman,
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Well, Scooter, MetCheck http://www.metcheck.com is descending to freezing at sea level - which sounds like fun.
Perhaps SF has ground to a halt under the strain of skiers about to fly out tomorrow?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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brian
brian
Guest
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frostynutz, no meteoblue are running NMM which is a shorter range, higher resolution model than the GFS. It's also a product of the US govt.'s NOAA though.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Snow-forecast has now updated itself and looks depressing, far less precipitation forecast. I would be less bothered about that (as they never get quantities right) if locals, e.g. ski hire shop proprietor, were not making faces about the "peu" de precipitation expected. They are not cheerful locally. If it had got cold without this terrible rain they could have started blowing snow, and keeping the existing snow in decent nick for a bit longer. As it is, there will be very little skiing available below 2500m without a really good dump. Val Thorens here we come.
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pam w, I 've just taken a peek and it's now forecasting cryogenic temperatures -16 at 1250m on Wednesday.
Maybe SF stopped updating earlier because various figures went off the scale?
Let's see how cold things truly are on Sunday morning - to see if things really are going to get colder...
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FAQ
but nothing! Let's hope it's good news. 
