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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@mountainaddict, Sun is going to shine next weekend for the opening of Oktoberfest, likely to be perfect mountain walking weather ......
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Someone needs to un-sticky last years thread and sticky this one! snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Colorado planned opening dates.

Keystone Resort: October 25, 2024
Winter Park Resort: October 28, 2024
Arapahoe Basin: November 2, 2024
Breckenridge: November 8, 2024
Vail: November 8, 2024
Loveland: November 10, 2024
Copper Mountain: November 11, 2024
Purgatory: November 16, 2024
Crested Butte: November 20, 2024
Steamboat Springs: November 20, 2024
Aspen Snowmass: November 21, 2024
Beaver Creek: November 27, 2024
Monarch Mountain: December 4, 2024
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@luigi, agreed and seconded
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Beautiful scenes in the Tuxertal this morning Very Happy Hintertux Glacier should be decent when it reopens.

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Steinplatte webcam this morning (German/Austria border). Approx 1600 m.

https://tinypic.host/image/Screenshot-2024-09-15-11-17-52-67-40deb401b9ffe8e1df2f1cc5ba480b12.2v8wOO
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
mountainaddict wrote:
Beautiful scenes in the Tuxertal this morning Very Happy Hintertux Glacier should be decent when it reopens.
.... However... Confused


http://youtube.com/v/5lO81y0vFvs
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Awful that @geoffers Sad
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The North Atlantic is still at record high average surface water temperature between 60* and 80* north but should start to decline from here.
https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/
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mountainaddict wrote:
Beautiful scenes in the Tuxertal this morning Very Happy Hintertux Glacier should be decent when it reopens.



I believe it has now reopened...
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Am i right in thinking there is a chance for some snow above 2000m in the NW French alps next week? GFS appears to show temps dropping with some precipitation. I'm no weather expert so could be completely reading the charts wrong.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@pmercer, Chamonix Meteo seems to think there is this Sat in this mornings forecast

https://chamonix-meteo.com/
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:
I believe it (ie Hintertux) has now reopened...
Just spotted that Stubai Glacier is now open too Very Happy - albeit with very limited lifts/slopes. Still, it's a good, early start.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Every opening and closing date for most major Western European resorts in the upcoming winter.


Tignes: 23 Nov 2024-25 April May 2025

Val Thorens: 23 Nov 2024-4 May 2025

Val d’Isere: 30 Nov 2024-26 April 2025

Alpe d’Huez: 30 Nov 2024-21 April 2025

Les 2 Alpes: 30 Nov 2024-4 May 2025

Courchevel: 6 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Les Menuires: 7 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Megeve: 7 Dec 2024 (partial opening)-6 April 2025

Meribel: 7 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Avoriaz: 13 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Morzine: 13 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Flaine: 14 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

Samoens:14 Dec 2024-21 April 2025

La Plagne: 4 Dec 2024-18 April 2025

Les Arcs: 14 Dec 2024-26 April 2025

Les Gets: 21 Dec 2024-6 April 2025

Chamonix: 21 Dec 2024 – 4 May 2025
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
La Plagne: 4 Dec 2024-21(26) April 2025
and Valdisere And Tignes have as closing day the 5 May 2025
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hmmm, I think Grands Montets and Les Houches ( Shocked ) are planning on opening earlier, snow permitting. Clicking through to the source, the review on Chamonix is a bit pants rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Just a few French resorts Whitegold
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@under a new name, judging by the reviews of places I know a poorly trained AI program wrote them. It certainly scrambled descriptions of actual named pistes and seemed to invent a few new ones.

For example I am sure @Idris will be interested to hear that his piste patrol have a black run in their patch running from the top of Aiguille Croche right down into Megeve. The description of it as "challenging" sounds fair though.
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@j b,
Quote:

a poorly trained AI program wrote them


That was my impression as well. Or a poorly trained intern with a copy of "Where to ski and snowboard 1986.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
turms2 (and Whitegold), you are missing a "1".
La Plagne dates for coming season are 14 December to 26 April (Altitude)
https://en.la-plagne.com/opening-dates
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yes indeed...i copy - paste the dates and changed only the closure dates.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
Every opening and closing date for most major Western European resorts in the upcoming winter.




French....
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@munich_irish, the linked website with the dubious reviews did include Austrian, Swiss and Italian resorts.

Though their opening dates may not be much more reliable than their reviews. As @under a new name points out some of the Chamonix ski areas (e.g. Grands Montets area) are certainly going to be open several weeks earlier than the date given of 21 Dec; on the other hand they say Megeve will open 7 Dec which is decidedly optimistic and the resort's website clarifies that most runs won't open until 21st.
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Back to actually talking about weather outlook

Dec to Feb is looking dry with a blocking high bringing stable weather. Good for resorts with snow canons. Avoid the Pyrenees and Southern Alps and Italy



temperatures will be above average, so some nice ski days where there is snow



current previsions are for below average snowfall except in Norway/Sweden
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davidof wrote:
Back to actually talking about weather outlook

Dec to Feb is looking dry with a blocking high bringing stable weather. Good for resorts with snow canons. Avoid the Pyrenees and Southern Alps and Italy



temperatures will be above average, so some nice ski days where there is snow



current previsions are for below average snowfall except in Norway/Sweden


This far out, do you know how reliable these projections are typically?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
No one does. Effectively informed guesswork at more than 7 days out............................
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Maersk wrote:
No one does. Effectively informed guesswork at more than 7 days out............................


yes I agree.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Extremely-rare deep snowfall this week of 15-40cm in (eastern) South Africa.

Vehicles buried.

The biggest snowfall in the area since the last century.



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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Ryunis, found this whilst researching my Japan trip…. Not entirely what you’re after, and Japan specific, but suspect a similar dataset exists somewhere for Europe….

https://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/etrn/view/monthly_s3_en.php?block_no=47401&view=14
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Impressive South African pictures. How is the skiing?

Fresh snow forecast above 2200m in the Savoies today but that currently seems optimistic given the temperatures.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-update-more-snow-for-united-states-canada-less-europe-fa/

TL;DR

For snow: head to Eastern CH or AUS in December then Scandinavia after New Year

Europe forecast:
Quote:

First, the seasonal average shows below-average snowfall over most of the continent. However, more snowfall than normal is forecast over Scandinavia due to the influence of a low-pressure system and the jet stream over northern Europe.

The December snowfall forecast shows less snowfall than normal over much of the continent. A small area of normal snowfall is indicated over the Alps, with more snow again over northern Scandinavia.

The January forecast shows reduced snowfall potential over much of the continent. Overall the forecast is very similar to the previous month, with perhaps even less snowfall over the Alps.

February shows no major improvement, with most of the continent still under much less snowfall than normal, except for the northern parts under the jet stream. Some small snowfall areas are indicated over the Alps, similar to December.


North America

Quote:

The seasonal average for North America shows that most of the central and southern half of the United States is forecast with below-average snowfall. But compared to the forecast from last month, there is more snowfall in the forecast for parts of the northern United States and the upper Midwest.

Canada shows much more snowfall over a large part of the country, except for the far southeastern area.

An interesting area of below-normal snowfall is forecast over far eastern Canada, with less snowfall still forecast over the southern half of the United States. But overall, this looks much closer to the expected La Niña snowfall pattern in past winters.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I've read that there are predictions (between 70% - 85% depending on the source) of "la niña" occuring between September and November and lasting through until the spring.

For those more clued up on this stuff than I am, what effect is that likely to have on the weather in the Alps this winter? On the face of it, it seems like good news but I'm certainly no expert!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@PrinceJohn, AIUI, La Niña / EL Niño don't have enormous influence on European weather
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davidof wrote:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-snowfall-predictions-update-more-snow-for-united-states-canada-less-europe-fa/

TL;DR

For snow: head to Eastern CH or AUS in December then Scandinavia after New Year

Europe forecast:
Quote:

First, the seasonal average shows below-average snowfall over most of the continent. However, more snowfall than normal is forecast over Scandinavia due to the influence of a low-pressure system and the jet stream over northern Europe.

The December snowfall forecast shows less snowfall than normal over much of the continent. A small area of normal snowfall is indicated over the Alps, with more snow again over northern Scandinavia.

The January forecast shows reduced snowfall potential over much of the continent. Overall the forecast is very similar to the previous month, with perhaps even less snowfall over the Alps.

February shows no major improvement, with most of the continent still under much less snowfall than normal, except for the northern parts under the jet stream. Some small snowfall areas are indicated over the Alps, similar to December.


North America

Quote:

The seasonal average for North America shows that most of the central and southern half of the United States is forecast with below-average snowfall. But compared to the forecast from last month, there is more snowfall in the forecast for parts of the northern United States and the upper Midwest.

Canada shows much more snowfall over a large part of the country, except for the far southeastern area.

An interesting area of below-normal snowfall is forecast over far eastern Canada, with less snowfall still forecast over the southern half of the United States. But overall, this looks much closer to the expected La Niña snowfall pattern in past winters.


Are these forecasts ever completely wrong? That looks horrible for the central Swiss Alps.
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Yes of course. They can't even forecast the weather accurately a week out. They can look at the general trend though and make some decent long term estimates.
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Or 'guesses' as they are known...............................
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Maersk, the old threads are there if any one wants to check. However seeing as there is a vacuum and this thread exists it v gives something to discuss.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Any ideas what the units are on those snowfall predictions? If it's a reduction of 3% that's hardly a reason to get too depressed.
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The links to the severe weather site above are not forecasts, you most certainly cant extrapolate how much snow will fall in Verbier (say) in December. They suggest weather trends over the coming season, the suggestion being a bit more snow than average over Scandinavia and maybe less snow than normal over the alps. None of which means there wont be decent skiing in Avoriaz at Christmas (there might be!)
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FWIW - the equivalent report last year had low snowfall in December, high in Jan & Feb - almost exactly 100% wrong. I'm not making any plans based on it!
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