 Poster: A snowHead
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davidof, Is that what's known as "the infection rate"?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| ALQ wrote: |
| davidof, Is that what's known as "the infection rate"? |
Its the combination of infection rate and the determination of a large number of at-risk people to ignore anything the evil imperialists have to say, because its all probably just a trick. Note that the current ebola outbreak began in Guinea, which has a lower rate of new infections than Liberia because the people there appear to be a lot less wilfully self-destructive.
Naturally, it makes total sense to extrapolate the current behaviour of people who do not seem understand what is happening, or what they should do to avoid it, to demonstrate that everyone in the whole world will be dead Real Soon Now.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| T Bar wrote: |
It can spread to the West because anyone can travel to the Wet who has caught it. It will not spread within the West because its mode of transmission is known and is relatively easily controlled within rich countries.The only people who are really at risk are intimate contacts of people who have the disease and health care workers.
The reason why They are telling the truth is because They are the doctors and epidemiologists who have to deal with it and have a need to know the truth for their own protection. |
Assuming it is doctors and nurses doing the truth-telling (a lot of the info I've read is actually coming from the White House press spokesman, presumably via the CDC, with all the political filtering that that suggests), the trouble is
1) that a lot of doctors and nurses are catching it, which suggests it is quite transmissible, even if you're taking serious precautions
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2) 'intimate contacts' could be a large number of people, particularly if an infected person works in a club, or a shopping mall, or a school. Then exponentiality kicks in. This is what outbreaks do - they break out.
Still not panicking, but definitely mildly concerned.
Meanwhile, it now seems from the New York Times that Thomas Duncan, the guy who brought ebola to the States, almost certainly knew he had it, or was going to develop it, because he had literally carried his friend (who was in the very late stages, she died the next day after being turned away as there was no room) into hospital in Sierra Leone.
Then, four days later, he got on a plane to the US without as far as we can tell mentioning his situation to anyone, which seems, er, selfish at best.
That said, I can understand why he did it - his own chances of survival once he developed the condition were obviously greater in the USA than in Liberia.
But it does pose the question, in an age of porous borders, how many more people will make a similar calculation?
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| Serriadh wrote: |
| ALQ wrote: |
| davidof, Is that what's known as "the infection rate"? |
Its the combination of infection rate and the determination of a large number of at-risk people to ignore anything the evil imperialists have to say, because its all probably just a trick. Note that the current ebola outbreak began in Guinea, which has a lower rate of new infections than Liberia because the people there appear to be a lot less wilfully self-destructive.
Naturally, it makes total sense to extrapolate the current behaviour of people who do not seem understand what is happening, or what they should do to avoid it, to demonstrate that everyone in the whole world will be dead Real Soon Now.
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I don't think anyone thinks we're all doooomed, not least because we usually aren't. In fact, across history, we never have been, yet.
But occasionally something does cut a bit of a swathe - Spanish flu sort of thing.
If I didn't have kids I'd be completely chilled, not least because if necessary I can shut the door and not leave the house for a bit.
Having kids makes me a bit more concerned, obviously for them but also because it makes the calculation as to if, when and how to act a bit harder.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| northernsoulboy wrote: |
Having kids makes me a bit more concerned, obviously for them but also because it makes the calculation as to if, when and how to act a bit harder. |
Knowing kids they'll probably bring it back from school.
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northernsoulboy, unfortunately health care in the countries concerned is not as well-funded as our own. The basic precautions needed to control the outbreak are not necessarily available, so they may not be taking 'serious precautions' . They will be trying to control transmission as best they can with the equipment they have.
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Sooner or later we'll have to deal with an outbreak of a different strain of Ebola, like Marberg rather than Zaire. 70% mortality rate will seem like a fricken pickernick. Mortality rates of 95%+ will be the order of the day.
There was a firm impairing monkeys for labs use in America, there was an outbreak of Marberg in the quarantine zone. It killed all the monkeys, all of whom were separately caged , the conclusion of the CDC was airborne transmission. Fortunately for the people that worked there this particular strain did not cross the species boundary. 
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| Hells Bells wrote: |
| northernsoulboy, unfortunately health care in the countries concerned is not as well-funded as our own. The basic precautions needed to control the outbreak are not necessarily available, so they may not be taking 'serious precautions' . They will be trying to control transmission as best they can with the equipment they have. |
yep, I understand that Hells Bells - but 300 medical personnel is a lot, and people from MSF and other organisations who are extremely well-equipped have contracted it. Sierra Leone's 'top ebola doctor' recently died from it, and I assume he both knew what precautions to take and was taking them.
(I read somewhere that fatigue is the big killer - you have the gear, but you're working such long hours that eventually you make a mistake.)
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northernsoulboy,
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Assuming it is doctors and nurses doing the truth-telling (a lot of the info I've read is actually coming from the White House press spokesman, presumably via the CDC, with all the political filtering that that suggests), the trouble is
1) that a lot of doctors and nurses are catching it, which suggests it is quite transmissible, even if you're taking serious precautions
and
2) 'intimate contacts' could be a large number of people, particularly if an infected person works in a club, or a shopping mall, or a school. Then exponentiality kicks in. This is what outbreaks do - they break out.
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Intimate contacts is not people you are working with unless your relationship is intimate. It is people you are having sex with people you share needles with or in the case of Ebola people who are burying you when you are leaking body fluids and so forth.
Nobody has said that health care workers cannot catch it on the contrary they are in the at risk group because they are dealing with the body fluids when the people are very ill. However the facilities for isolating people and for maintaining proper precautions are infinitely higher in the first world than they are in Africa.
People may come over with the virus very occasionally a health care worker may contract it, it will not spread. To get an 'outbreak every case has to infect more than one other person the figures for Africa are only just over one. With first world medicine they will be way under one.
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| northernsoulboy wrote: |
| 1) that a lot of doctors and nurses are catching it, which suggests it is quite transmissible, even if you're taking serious precautions |
It really, really doesn't. These people are working long hours in continuous contact with infected bodily fluids and people at their most contageous and in less than perfect conditions. People who work in warzones get shot, but that doesn't mean ISIS are going to kick down your door and take an AK to you in the near future, does it.
| northernsoulboy wrote: |
| 'intimate contacts' could be a large number of people, particularly if an infected person works in a club, or a shopping mall, or a school. Then exponentiality kicks in. This is what outbreaks do - they break out. |
Sure, if they work in a club, or a supermarket, or a school, and then vomit blood all over people. If you or your kids go to the sort of club where that's the norm, perhaps a change in hobby might be in order, however.
Ebola isn't like flu... you can't just pick it up incidentally. Even if you're living in Liberia (where millions of uninfected people still live) you're not doomed, if you take basic precautions. What we're seeing is a lot of people doing the worst thing possible, and unsurprisingly infection rates are shooting up as a result.
| northernsoulboy wrote: |
| But occasionally something does cut a bit of a swathe - Spanish flu sort of thing. |
New flu variants are exactly the sort of thing to be concerned about, because they spread so easily and serious pandemics can and have happened on multiple occasions in the past.
Ebola isn't anything like as bad as a dangerous new flu strain and likely won't ever be, but because the effects are so graphic it gets blown up out of all proportion.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| Serriadh wrote: |
| ...These people are working long hours in continuous contact with infected bodily fluids and people at their most contageous and in less than perfect conditions... |
The height of bravery. Truly remarkable.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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northernsoulboy, northernsoulboy, healthcare in Sierra Leone is not like in the UK. Indeed, if you went to Sierra Leone you might think there was no healthcare.
ResurgeAfrica suggests there in only one trained anaesthetist for the whole country. I didn't think there were any.
This report from the British Society for Surgery of the Hand gives you some flavour of the place.
But to really understand medicine in Africa you need to talk to Keith Thomson. Keith has been involved in African medical care and organising courses there for a long time. It is well worth reading some of his articles. Like this 2011 diary of a visit to Sierra Leone.
However, if you really want to press the Panic Button, then read this article.
It is suggested the Ebola and other Viral Haemorrhagic Fevers have been around a long time. Before roads moved into the forests we never saw them: if someone in a village got infected, the whole village was wiped out. End of story.
But now with roads and rapid travel, infected individuals can move away from the source, and a new disease appears.
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| Serriadh wrote: |
| New flu variants are exactly the sort of thing to be concerned about, because they spread so easily and serious pandemics can and have happened on multiple occasions in the past. |
Exactly. There's about 500.000 deaths every year as result of influenza, and noone makes big deal out of it. And flu goes around "a little bit" easier then ebola which is now such a big deal. Sure death rate with ebola is much higher, but still... until now there was hardly a bit over 1000 deaths which is pretty low number compared to half million/year for disease noone cares about 
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You know it makes sense.
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Interesting article in Daily Mail.
"Ebola victim was sent home with painkillers and remained at large for a WEEK"
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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There is an endemic VHF in Scandinavia, harboured in Voles.
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Poster: A snowHead
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We have a collection box in our office for a colleague's family following the death of his sister who worked in a clinic in SL - am sorry am by-passing the politics of the thread but bringing it nearer to "home" but then I do work in international development.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The British nurse who has survived it and has appealed for more help before intending to go back to continue to work is the definition of a hero in my book. I think the Daily Mail angle is just mirroring the no doubt hysterical US media.
There's an interesting moral & political question here though - at what point in time does somewhere like Liberia close itself off to the outside world (or at least non outbound travel) on the basis that it stands more chance of getting the help it needs if its permanent or temporary residents are not leaving to travel elsewhere ( & save themselves)?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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jonpim, serriadh, jogi, others - yep, I definitely bow to those with proper medical knowledge.
Like the rest of us, all I do is read the papers and, if I'm feeling a bit adventurous, the medical journals (where available online) and websites.
I absolutely accept that the chances of this coming in any big way to the west are fairly small, and of spreading dramatically smaller still, for all the reasons given. (Though that's not the same as no chance, and it's foolish IMO to think we're OK because we're in the west. Cities may be better for transmitting viruses than rural communities.)
As I said above - if I didn't have kids I'd be completely chilled about it, and even having kids I'm no more than mildly concerned.
I'm really just questioning (and just casually, I'm not conspiracy-theorising) how much detail we're being given, and - assuming we're being told everything the authorities know - how complete that info is, anyway. That is, there are bound to be 'unknown unknowns'.
It's (from what I have read) highly unlikely that this virus will mutate to go 'airborne' - lots of other nasty vuiruses have been around a lot longer and haven't.
But equally (again, as I understand it, I'm open to correction on all of the following) it's not true that you have to have 'blood vomited on you', or handle corpses, to become infected, either.
These are merely more efficient modes of transmission.
It's also transmitted through faeces, ordinary vomit, mucus, saliva, semen etc.
Additionally, people can be infected, and be symptomatic, for quite some time before they realise exactly what they have, because it mimics or resembles a number of other conditions, some of which you might not bother to go and see your doctor about for a while (eg a bad cold).
Thus, my point about the potential issues involved if a person with ebola works at a club or school is not about whether they vom all over the kids, but whether they (for instance) go to the loo, have a bit of explosive d+v, and maybe don't wash their hands too well, or wash their hands just fine but leave viral traces on the taps and soap dispenser and cubicle doors.
re the flu and that killing far more, yes but there are several reasons we don't worry (too much) about that.
Familiarity is one. Mortality rate is another. Who dies - mostly old folks - is another (swine flu I think killed younger people, so there was a lot more concern).
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
The British nurse who has survived it and has appealed for more help before intending to go back to continue to work is the definition of a hero in my book. I think the Daily Mail angle is just mirroring the no doubt hysterical US media.
There's an interesting moral & political question here though - at what point in time does somewhere like Liberia close itself off to the outside world (or at least non outbound travel) on the basis that it stands more chance of getting the help it needs if its permanent or temporary residents are not leaving to travel elsewhere ( & save themselves)? |
Doesn't having had it and survived confer some immunity, Dave?
Re isolation, Eyam is a very moving place to visit.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| jogi wrote: |
| Serriadh wrote: |
| New flu variants are exactly the sort of thing to be concerned about, because they spread so easily and serious pandemics can and have happened on multiple occasions in the past. |
Exactly. There's about 500.000 deaths every year as result of influenza, and noone makes big deal out of it. And flu goes around "a little bit" easier then ebola which is now such a big deal. Sure death rate with ebola is much higher, but still... until now there was hardly a bit over 1000 deaths which is pretty low number compared to half million/year for disease noone cares about |
The CDC believes there are 2.5x more cases than have been reported, and, on the basis that the number infected doubles every twenty days, is predicting 1.4 million cases in Liberia and Sierra Leone by January (worst case, and depending on what action is taken - they also believe it's controllable with cash and action).
This seems to be own-brand ebola lite, in that it is less likely to kill you than other strains (I believe roughly 50% vs up to 90%, though the WHO now says it has a 70% rate).
But that in itself is part of the problem - the full fat strains never get going because they pretty much kill everyone they touch before they can pass it on very far.
Anyway, in that worst case, that is 70% of 1.4 million people dead, or 980,000.
By January.
That's quite serious, even vs box-standard flu (though still a pinprick versus a Spanish Flu-type swine/bird flu).
What happens if it reaches major population centres, who knows.
I'm still not panicking, just not quite as relaxed about it as some!
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I might be wrong, but I would say if it would get this far, things will change. As long as you have people attacking hospitals trying to "free" patients and stealing everything from those "hospitals", they are actually asking for more. And in my opinion it's simply because there's not big enough population influenced with this... yet. When you get half of your local community, including your family, killed, you sort of realize thing is serious, and you start to behave differently... even if you don't have knowledge and western goods. So I would say these sort of predictions (1.4mio dead people in 10 mio population (4m Liberia and 6m Sierra Leone) are theoretical thing based on current progress. But people are (still) not that stupid, and once danger become more imminent, people start to behave differently.
As far as "situation is controllable with cash and action" it's pure BS. Yes it's true, but on very very long run, starting with educating people, building health system etc.. And this can't be done in month or two, but more in timeframe of 50-100 years.
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| jogi wrote: |
I might be wrong, but I would say if it would get this far, things will change. As long as you have people attacking hospitals trying to "free" patients and stealing everything from those "hospitals", they are actually asking for more. And in my opinion it's simply because there's not big enough population influenced with this... yet. When you get half of your local community, including your family, killed, you sort of realize thing is serious, and you start to behave differently... even if you don't have knowledge and western goods. So I would say these sort of predictions (1.4mio dead people in 10 mio population (4m Liberia and 6m Sierra Leone) are theoretical thing based on current progress. But people are (still) not that stupid, and once danger become more imminent, people start to behave differently.
As far as "situation is controllable with cash and action" it's pure BS. Yes it's true, but on very very long run, starting with educating people, building health system etc.. And this can't be done in month or two, but more in timeframe of 50-100 years. |
It's 1.4m infections, not dead Jogi, but I take your point.
I guess by 'cash and action' they mean flying in lots of field hospitals, protective clothing, palliative drugs, food, water, incinerators, civil plant (to dig latrines and probably lots of deep pits) and maybe more troops etc (UN?), and then effectively quarantining everyone.
All of which I would think could be done fairly quickly if there's the will.
But yes there's a long term requirement to drag African villages out of the past.
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northernsoulboy,
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Thus, my point about the potential issues involved if a person with ebola works at a club or school is not about whether they vom all over the kids, but whether they (for instance) go to the loo, have a bit of explosive d+v, and maybe don't wash their hands too well, or wash their hands just fine but leave viral traces on the taps and soap dispenser and cubicle doors.
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Fair enough but with the Wests ability to contact trace isolate etc. the risks of spread by these means are very low indeed a case has to on average infect more than one person in order for it to spread in a community.
There is not a zero chance of acquiring Ebola in the West if an infected person does come from Africa but the chances are very very very low indeed other than for the odd health care worker. The chances of it actually spreading within the West are lower still.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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The liberals as ever are playing this down as being tantamount to a mere bagatelle at worst. I, on the other hand am taking this far more seriously and hope that enough people get at the throats of those "experts" and the officials within the public sector who are more than aiding and abetting (and openly lying about), openly allowing those with this incurable deadly disease and the deliberate spread of this once again Africanus scourge..................
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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This is definitely a concern
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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From the article, "In all of Liberia, for example, there were only 51 doctors in 2010, and many of them have since died of Ebola."
That's pretty horrifying in itself, even without the current epidemic.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Serriadh, very scary.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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This was my point with NHS staff going to treat Ebola. It was over 2 weeks ago that this woman had treated the 2 spanish people with Ebola. Since then she has worked, and been on holiday and could have possibly spread the disease further. Surely anybody coming into contact with the disease whether nfected of not should be quarantined and monitored for a few weeks before leaving the country?!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You'd think people in the health profession would know better. Where do I get my dose of Tamiflu?
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PaulC1984, worrying indeed.
Key argument that this is a 3rd world disease is that the systems are in place in the developed world to deal with it and that it's not that infectious.
Patently, at least one of these is an over-estimation - with two glaring failures out of a tiny number of events.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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If the Military can't deal with a virus (not to say it's nothing) how would they ever deal with chemical warfare. In theory they should be the best people to deal with it... (in theory)
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As we book our holidays, it is chilling to consider that France is regarded as the most likely western country for an outbreak due to most extensive links with Africa.
Maybe consider xenophobic Switzerland or Austria instead?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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peanuthead, you're joking, right?
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under a new name, only the second statement. The first was reported on the news. I forget the source.
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FAQ
Possibly just one moment of absent mindedness, but if that's so it just underlines the importance of adhering to rigorous PPE protocol.