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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@kitenski, Aliens. Just before it went really bad!!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
emwmarine wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run.


At least it's meant lots more enquiries for places at Val Thorens.


Still confident about your big Friday dump?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
duncansarmy wrote:
emwmarine wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run.


At least it's meant lots more enquiries for places at Val Thorens.


Still confident about your big Friday dump?


My zx81 GFS simulator seems to be suffering from that same disappearing snow malaise that the real GFS does. Back to the drawing/programming board.
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kitenski wrote:
It's still November folks.. Stay frosty (guess the movie)


Aliens ?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
emwmarine wrote:


My zx81 GFS simulator seems to be suffering from that same disappearing snow malaise that the real GFS does. Back to the drawing/programming board.


As it is cyber Monday, for a very reasonable price, I can offer you an upgrade to a zx spectrum and if you really want to splash out I can offer you a Spectrum +2........ (really) otherwise I would suggest the BBC weather app on your iphone
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Looks like a week of melting below 2000m in the European Alps.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
Looks like a week of melting below 2000m in the European Alps.


Grim isn't it. My one week of the year is at the end of December and I'm starting to get nervous Sad Although, there is still time.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
duncansarmy wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Looks like a week of melting below 2000m in the European Alps.


Grim isn't it. My one week of the year is at the end of December and I'm starting to get nervous Sad Although, there is still time.


I wouldn't go out on a limb and use the word, "grim" but it seems the past few ski seasons for Europe seem to start with nail biting and stressing about the future weather situation for Christmas break.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
So far looks like a repeat of last season, only shifted couple weeks forward: conditions were similar last year couple weeks before official opening, followed by warm weeks and disappearing snow in December. At least resorts could open this year due to snow arriving a little later.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Slight covering of new snow in Tignes this morning, nobody forecast that rolling eyes
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
on the first day of christmas my true love gave to me, 3000m FL for the next few days.... thanks for that.

Luckily I've heard that this snow stuff is magic, and won't all instantly melt away, due to some science stuff I should know from my energy engineering degree Wink
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Met Office Contingency Planners worth a read. Positive NAO continuing for December increased chance of blocking (and possible SSW) later in winter.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/m/5/A3_plots-temp-DJF_v1.pdf

"... we consider there to be an increased risk of storms and very wet conditions in the early part of the winter, and a greater risk of cold weather impacts in late winter"
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
RetroBod wrote:
emwmarine wrote:


My zx81 GFS simulator seems to be suffering from that same disappearing snow malaise that the real GFS does. Back to the drawing/programming board.


As it is cyber Monday, for a very reasonable price, I can offer you an upgrade to a zx spectrum and if you really want to splash out I can offer you a Spectrum +2........ (really) otherwise I would suggest the BBC weather app on your iphone


16 or 48K ?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Looks like there is 20cm of snow in the eastern alps today that wasn't forecast yesterday!
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
cant change it, so little point in stressing about it.

plenty could happen between 10th & most resorts opening..............

well it needs to..........aaarrrrrgggghhhhh!!!!!! LOL
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
emwmarine wrote:
duncansarmy wrote:
emwmarine wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
Unseasonably mild weather for at least the first ten days of December according to this evening's GFS op run.


At least it's meant lots more enquiries for places at Val Thorens.


Still confident about your big Friday dump?


My zx81 GFS simulator seems to be suffering from that same disappearing snow malaise that the real GFS does. Back to the drawing/programming board.


If my parents hadn't thrown out my ZX81 with the additional 16k memory module then you could have had that to use as a slave to boost the computing power. I think they also through out the old Atari machine I had so I can't donate that to the project either.

I just wonder what they would be worth now if they had kept hold of them..... Toofy Grin Toofy Grin
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Met Office 30 day forecast right out to almost New Year is unsettled Atlantic dominated weather bringing gales, rain and periods of mild and colder interludes. Sad

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Potentially good however for the West Highlands and Lake District if the wind ever calms down enough. Are we about to witness the third winter in a row where Glencoe is one of the snowiest places in Europe Shocked
snow conditions
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Sun streaming through the window here in North London - as the radiators are on and the windows won't open, i've got the door open and sitting here stripped down to my undies - was hoping to set a trend, but none of the ladies seem to be following Sad
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Hope we get a winter. Not even a frost last year and only one so far this year.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
06z keeps high pressure in charge across much of continental Europe for the length of it's run. On the plus side mild and dry weather has less impact on snowpack than mild and wet weather.
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Nice little documentary from the BFI on how the movies make do without snow...

Snow business.


http://youtube.com/v/0IBRa-LsD-w

- Dr Zhivago - crushed marble
- The Shining - 900 tons of salt and styrofoam
- It's a Wonderful Life - 600 gallons of water, soap and foam
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
escooler wrote:
Quote:

It's still November folks.. Stay frosty (guess the movie)


Generation Kill?


nope Wink Aliens
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:


- Dr Zhivago - crushed marble
- The Shining - 900 tons of salt and styrofoam
- It's a Wonderful Life - 600 gallons of water, soap and foam


So which would be best to ski on, do you think?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
http://www.unige.ch/climate/Publications/Beniston/CC97B.pdf
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It was +11c at the bases of Glencoe and Cairngorm at 9pm this evening (Tues).
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
18z offers up a cold and snowy FI for the Alps. But it's a bit out on a limb in terms of recent runs. Be interesting to see if there is any hint of that in tomorrow morning's output or whether it's just a ghost in the machine...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z offers up a cold and snowy FI for the Alps. But it's a bit out on a limb in terms of recent runs. Be interesting to see if there is any hint of that in tomorrow morning's output or whether it's just a ghost in the machine...


Beats a kick in the head!

Storm a brewing tonight in the PNW. Could see upwards of a few feet of snow in the Cascades over the next 5 days. Will go and sample some tomorrow as part of my training for Christmas week in the Alps. Very Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Little sign of it in GFS this morning, but temperatures dropping at the end of ECMs run.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Scorchio in Grenoble this lunchtime, like an English summer[1]



but quite cold when you move out of the sun. I've had a look at the weather stations and the settlement/melt on sunny aspects is around 10 to 20cm since Sunday but more like 5cm on shaded slopes, so not so bad. My friend Anny sent me this picture from Chamrousse this afternoon. However this is at 1750m - higher than the recent rain/snow line. At les 7 Laux at 1550 meters there is "barely enough snow to ski at the bottom of the slopes but higher up it is all good".



don't worry she always skis knocked kneed but she skis pretty well all the same. Snow is crusty off piste except on shaded north facing slopes where it is beginning to facet up nicely. There is a very good overnight refreeze meaning some hard and icy snow. Take care. A guy was helicoptered off from Bareges yesterday after falling on hard snow.


[1]Sent la pluie comme un été Anglais
Entends les notes d'une chanson lointaine
Sortant de derriere d'un poster
Espérant que la vie ne fut aussi longue
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Not sure that "facet up nicely" is not a disaster waiting to happen as the season progresses. A faceted lay will often become a weak layer as further snow falls.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
12z GFS brings a brief and rather light snowy interlude to the northern Alps on 09 December with some cold weather in the eastern Alps.

Far FI gets interesting around 16 December, but at +336...
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan, last week received its biggest November snowfall in 60 years...

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
ECM looking much better at +240.

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Just as we touchdown into Salzburg. Go ECM.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
GFS 12Z looking better too?
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Toadman wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z offers up a cold and snowy FI for the Alps. But it's a bit out on a limb in terms of recent runs. Be interesting to see if there is any hint of that in tomorrow morning's output or whether it's just a ghost in the machine...


Beats a kick in the head!

Storm a brewing tonight in the PNW. Could see upwards of a few feet of snow in the Cascades over the next 5 days. Will go and sample some tomorrow as part of my training for Christmas week in the Alps. Very Happy


This thread needs more pics of snow!!!

Didn't quite get as much as was forecast but they received about 10CM of fresh on firm base. It was low crowds, and fun to get some exercise in for Christmas week in the Alps!

Still forecast holding for more PNW snow but FL to fluctuate, and of course the obligatory caveat on timing, precip amounts.



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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
escooler wrote:
Quote:

It's still November folks.. Stay frosty (guess the movie)


Generation Kill?


That was a great series, always thought it deserved a follow up.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
18z shows (a lot of) promise in FI from around 13 December, but will this be reflected in tomorrow morning's output?
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nozawaonsen wrote:
18z shows (a lot of) promise in FI from around 13 December, but will this be reflected in tomorrow morning's output?


And of course FI promise will continue to reflect into reality. wink
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00Z ECM showing a change taking place from 11th December.

00Z GFS OP run showing fair bit of precipitation around the 12th across the Alps though this has very little support in the ensembles. Still support though for lighter precipitation around the 9th for areas North of the Alpine Ridge. Temperatures also look like they could be heading closer to average across a lot of places
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