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The All New 20/21 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looking back at the season to March....given background of moderate La Nina which peaked Nov-Dec.

Zonal winds crashed in January, with the AO also weak up to mid Feb.



High pressure over Greenland / Arctic (-AO), with low presure over NW europe. No sign of an Atlantic ridge anomaly so similar to 2010 for europe but not as strong. This year the deepest anomlalies were over the Alaskan side of the arctic ridge.



Temperatures were mostly above the 1981-2010 average, with France the only neutral spot across mid-latitudes



Sep to Mar, closer look at the pressure anomalies for Europe



Dec to Mar similar pattern with stronger low anomaly pushing further east



January much whooping



February dreadful, just sunny and dry.



March doesn't show the good NW'ly blast around the 10th as the rest was dry, colder in the east



So an above average season for most parts, especially Swiss, and northern French alps.....imagine northern Italy and most of Austria also did well?

And it continues to look snowy and well below average to mid April

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Locked in now on two systems, making a south-north sandwich

Sunday from the south


Monday from the north


This link for the Rhone Alps area shows Genoa should see the heaviest precipitation, 200mm possible.
7 models to flick thru out to next Wednesday.

https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/german/rhone-alpes/accumulated-precipitation/20210414-2100z.html
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For those that can read a little German or for those that cannot then go straight to the tables. This is the annual report of Austrian glaciers up to Sept 20. The negative numbers in the table 1 show glacier reduction (length). Even with increased snowfall the hot summers take their toll.


https://www.alpenverein.at/portal_wAssets/docs/service/presse/2021/gletscherbericht/Alpenverein_Bergauf-2-21_Gletscherbericht.pdf
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Well it was the usual no-show Sad

I'm going for what will probably be my final tour of the season, hoping to drive up a trail to gain some elevation and then climb up to around 2400m and maybe score 10cm of fresh over crud rolling eyes
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Snow at 700m. Apparently 25cm up top. Should be good tomorrow with the return of the sunshine. Last week of lifts in Verbier
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Weathercam, must have been snow somewhere in the south? guess the Italian side is out of bounds.....plenty fell up north, good covering down to below 600m in places near Annemasse when I passed this morning. Inspired by Bob's nighttime hikes am keen to try it later now that I have a fancy head torch.

Latest 8 day forecast from GFS 06z shows a few cm's still possible in the south west

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@polo, sorry I should have mentioned that we did indeed have a lot of precipitation, but only turning to snow for a few hours.

I drove up the trail opposite me to where it meets the piste and bottled it going any further as I thought it might still be deep in snow-canon snow, but they had cleared the trail.

So was nigh on Winter parking up at 1,500m, and only ten min hike to put skis on.



And then when I came back three hours later to meet OH and dogs it was positively Spring.



Did score some good snow above 2,000m but was hard work with wet skins and carrying 2kgs of heavy wet snow under and on top of the skis.



And now it's blowing a hooley up there with the snow getting ripped off the summits in a most spectacular display.
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It’s always colder up around Morzine latitude NehNeh

Snow melts ridiculously quickly now even with below avg temps. I’ve watched the southerly faces turn green - white - green - white etc the last week

Still, expecting the north facing snow above 1500m to have held up well here. I’ll find out soon enough
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Interesting read about drought and snowpack in the Western USA.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/western-u-may-entering-worst-015010067.html

Quote:
Jeff Berardelli
Sun, April 11, 2021, 6:50 PM
Extreme drought across the Western U.S. has become as reliable as a summer afternoon thunderstorm in Florida. And news headlines about drought in the West can seem a bit like a broken record, with some scientists saying the region is on the precipice of permanent drought.

That's because in 2000, the Western U.S. entered the beginning of what scientists call a megadrought — the second worst in 1,200 years — triggered by a combination of a natural dry cycle and human-caused climate change.

In the past 20 years, the two worst stretches of drought came in 2003 and 2013 — but what is happening right now appears to be the beginning stages of something even more severe. And as we head into the summer dry season, the stage is set for an escalation of extreme dry conditions, with widespread water restrictions expected and yet another dangerous fire season ahead.


Right now, the U.S. Drought Monitor places 60% of the Western states under severe, extreme or exceptional drought. The reason for the extensive drought is two-fold; long term drying fueled by human-caused climate change and, in the short term, a La Niña event in which cool Equatorial Pacific waters failed to fuel an ample fetch of moisture.

Consequently, this past winter's wet season was not very wet at all. In fact, it just added insult to injury, with only 25 to 50% of normal rainfall falling across much of the Southwest and California. This followed one of the driest and hottest summers in modern times, with two historic heat waves, a summer monsoon cycle that simply did not even show up and the worst fire season in modern times.

The Pacific Northwest, however, is faring much different this season. The northern half of the West experienced normal to even above normal snowfall this winter, on par with what is expected during a typical La Niña event featuring a further north jet stream storm track. That good fortune did not extend further south, however, with most areas now at only 50 to 75% of normal snowpack.

Since the West relies on melting snowpack to fill lakes, reservoirs and rivers, like the Colorado, water availability will be limited this summer. The Colorado River and its tributaries provide water for around 40 million people and 5 million acres of farmland. The amount of water flowing into Lake Powell, on the Arizona-Utah state line, in the coming months is only expected to be around 45% of the typical amount. Lake Meade, on the Arizona-Nevada state line, is only at 40% capacity.

But this lack of snowpack is not a one-time issue; it is a trend. Over the past 40 years, snowpack has declined by about 25% over the Western states. Meanwhile, the population continues to increase. Thus, as of late, water demand has been outstripping what mother nature can deliver.

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@polo,

Still lots of good touring to be had in these parts. A little bit of walking required on occasion though!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@zzz, @polo, we drove up to nigh on 1,700m today and later I saw that I could have driven to 1,900m which is pretty good as gives us access to N facing slopes.

The only issue today was that wind together with a sun getting more powerful by the day had produced a complex snow-pack, to say the least, that was very technical to ski, so much so that I think I might be off games with a strained knee, after ploughing and laying furrows of tracks through polystyrene crust to the powder below Laughing

Video really shows how I was fighting it, and the tracks are more like tramlines Laughing

Great thing is that there are only a handful of people ski-touring here now and they all went to a more popular sector.

I'm going to have to get up to speed on how/when the snow will start to transform on the various aspects in these sectors, as in the past I would have driven to other areas I know well to tour this time of year as everywhere has their own nuances so it's not text-book.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
GFS continues to show below avg temps, out to the 24th apr now



Zonal winds always slow down for the final strat warming sometime in May usually.....meaning the last of the cold winter air above the arctic is pushed out to mid latitudes one last time before warm temps take over the northern hemisphere. It doesn't always mean snow for the alps, but the odds are good.

GFS 00z run shows a dramatic collapse in strat wind speed into the end of April. The Op is a bit of an outlier vs. the mean, but that too is also pointing below zero (ie net easterly wind, northern blocking likely).



12z ECM mean for end of next week shows two areas of low pressure over US and one over Scandinavia, with high pressure centering over Iceland. So 22nd-23rd give or take a few days keeps cropping up for snow potential. Even if this event is a miss, the potential background signal of slowing strat winds will likely carry through into next month.

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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
never mind the Alps and snow.. any idea when the UK will warm up and this easterly wind will stop?! It's been months now it feels ..
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Fantastic weather up here. In fact it’s been a good last 5 months on the eastern central side of the uk here. Definitely more sunshine and less flooding than normal these days. Temps have been low this month but so has the humidity and the lack of wind and very strong sunshine has made for a very pleasant spring with the daffodils still out here. The cool dry weather has meant there is still a patch of snow surviving in the North York Moors from February Shocked
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
There is snow almost in my back yard from February. It is perishing out of the sun!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Will this season ever end? At altitude there is tons of snow and it doesn’t look like stopping any time soon! The wife is desperate for some sun...
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@BobinCH, This is just ridiculous. We are all desperate for some sun!! What is going on? (Yeah, yeah, I know, weather...)
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Relative scorchio next Thursday, one more area of low pressure next weekend, then summer
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Still on for decent temps thurs-fri, another cool and wet weekend, then a slow rise in temps back towards average next week and getting drier.

Here are the day 10 mean ECM and GFS pressure anomalies....hinting that the long standing high block over Greenland and euro low will shift east-north east, leading to high pressure just to the west of UK.
Warmer and drier but not particularly hot with low pressure remaining over Scandi a while longer and bringing down cool N/NE airmass.
Of course when the sun does come out this time of year it will be strong, so I imagine much more pleasant weather for most of europe than has been for the last 4 weeks / 8 months of winter. Global warming taking some time out.





This chart hasn't changed much for over a month.....showing average temp anomaly over the next 9 days.....reckon it will feel better than it looks as we get closer to month end

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Thought I’d kick off a new season forum on midsummer’s day if people are happy with that? Hope you are enjoying the Hitzewelle.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, Absolutely. Looking forward to it. Let's hope more of us get to enjoy the snow this coming season.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:
Thought I’d kick off a new season forum on midsummer’s day if people are happy with that? Hope you are enjoying the Hitzewelle.


+1 the new weather thread starting on midsummers day is one of my favourite dates on the snowheads calendar - it means we're counting down the days to the new season!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Yea please!
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@nozawaonsen, +1
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@nozawaonsen, + 1
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Handy Turnip, me too!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, @Handy Turnip, +1 to both of you. Learnt lots about mountain forecasting through this thread. Thanks! And the occasional photos of love conditions are v welcome too.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
+1

And seeing the news today about the loss if thickness on the Swedish glacier, I’d be fascinated to know how the Alpine glaciers have managed. There was the summer snow a few weeks ago but then the heatwave. Sadly I expect it’s not good news again this summer season……
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Hottest September day in Scotland for 115 years. 26c in the Cowal peninsular today. Just fabulous Cool
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Anything happening in the Alps??
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@coochiemudlo, this is last years thread

this years is here

https://www.snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=155810&start=400
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Why is last year's thread still stickied but this years is not?
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