Is there a temperature where it is too cold to make snow?
It can't be too cold to snow, but it can be too dry. There are dry, cold, deserts.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Indeed. It isn't clear to me that snow cannons are lacking water though....
As I understand it; snow crystal size gets smaller as the temperature drops under -5C, so I'm wondering if there is a fundamental limit where it becomes too cold for the crystal to form?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@afterski, I've seen cannons running at minus 20, so if there is a lower limit it isn’t a meaningful one in the context of European ski villages.
@Origen, apologies for yesterday, it's no excuse that I might have been over the drink-post limit. 2 strikes for me.
Here are some of those interesting patterns for next week....t+168 is a critical timeframe, i always respect a ECM/UKMO solution (with JMA thrown in) over the GFS/GEM at same timescale
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Judging from the various forms of webcams and weather stations including mine on my balcony it’s seems that the LPN has risen quite high this early evening above 1850m, raining in Val D but snowing at Tignes Le Lac , Temp is just under 3c at Villaroger and I understand the Meribel La Tania road is shut from a landslide , just looked at the webcam at TOVIÈRE Tignes and it looks most of the snow has been stripped by the wind , the temps are due to plummet again late this evening according to weather experts with snow again to low levels , quite a night I’d say .
The joys of the internet a decade ago I’d have been oblivious.
@Rob Mackley, 20 years (at least) ago surely? I was intently eyeing the Stella-Galaxy Hotel's webcam in Les Gets in 1999 ...
Certainly here it was gently raining by 17h00 .... but very gently indeed. Still warming up ... hey ho it's only late-mid November
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
Here are some of those interesting patterns for next week....t+168 is a critical timeframe, i always respect a ECM/UKMO solution (with JMA thrown in) over the GFS/GEM at same timescale
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@Ackie68, not seeing it, all the means point to Greenland/Iceland, with south euro high, so best case would be cold from the NE. Obviously calmer and drier than now but there is scope for northerly flow, especially eastern alps
Do you follow the MJO? Next cycle supposed to be favourable mid dec, but lots can happen before that independently. Still very windy here.
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@Snow&skifan, yr is ecm based, and although it’s the best model statistically, it’s only by a few percentage points. Usually I’d also have a look at the GFS ensembles for the same location and see how they stack up. Eventually they all converge
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polo wrote:
Do you follow the MJO?
I assume this is the Madden-Julian Oscillation? In answer no, I just keep an eye on the IOD for Australian weather (Indian Ocean dipole for others = surface sea level temps on either side of the the Indian ocean) [quote="polo"]
polo wrote:
Still very windy here.
seen that and looking at cams at high alts it was stripped snow that accumulated but clearly very localised evidence.
UK where I am now is going to get hit by storm Bert over the weekend 70mph winds, heavy rain in the west and major snow on the hills up north it seems, drawing up winds from the azores/Canaries.
Looking at begining of Dec, there is a signal from the KMA that the highs build in the Atlantic bringing the air from the north again, but little support from GFS 00z - looks Atlantic flat westerly flow and 06z mild ....
That said the ECM signals scandi ridging with winds coming in from the east and a cut-off low...could be return to cold
So ECM and KMA favour colder early Dec, with GFS mild....will have to wait to see if other models support one or other once they extend that far out.....
All to play for for beginning Dec to help maintain the current dumps.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
polo wrote:
@Snow&skifan, yr is ecm based, and although it’s the best model statistically, it’s only by a few percentage points. Usually I’d also have a look at the GFS ensembles for the same location and see how they stack up. Eventually they all converge
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Ackie68, no one understands the IOD-MJO mumbo jumbo. Is it going to snow in the Aosta valley the 18th Dec? Yes or no.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Snow&skifan, I’ll post charts tomorrow for you
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
polo wrote:
@Ackie68, no one understands the IOD-MJO mumbo jumbo. Is it going to snow in the Aosta valley the 18th Dec? Yes or no.
Shrug shoulders, arms to side, palms raised emoji
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
polo wrote:
@Snow&skifan, I’ll post charts tomorrow for you
Thanks, your expertise here is loved .
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow&skifan wrote:
polo wrote:
@Snow&skifan, I’ll post charts tomorrow for you
Thanks, your expertise here is loved .
Love heart, love heart
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The basic forecasting problem at the moment is that you have the GFS model (which lots of automated forecasts use) showing this for 10 days time -
Note the high pressure and heights (oranges and reds) centered to the S and SW pumping warm moist air from the azores to the alps.
VS the ECM model (which some other automated forecast use) showing this -
Note the high centered to the N and drawing cold dry air over the alps.
This results in the following temps at 5000ftish on GFS -
VS these temps on ECM -
So the automated forecast sites eg Snow Forecast (GFS) and YR.no (ECM) will be spewing out very different numbers and conditions because they simply read the raw data values for the wee bit of the world you choose.
Text forecasts like WEpowder have some human input so people will look at all the models and use their experience to say which solution they think is most likely.
Pick of the bunch tonight is the UKMO which at 7 days out is showing this -
Which could/should lead to a LP attack from the west drawing in cold air from the East or another flood of cold air from the N like the one we are currently in. Watch for high over UK moving NW (more likely IMHO) to give cold from N or moving NE to draw cold underneath from the East. Or it may just sink and alps will be left in warm SW flow.
Really wouldn't call myself an expert but I suppose it's all relative, and hopefully I can spot any early developments for better or worse, and explain some of the issues with trying to predict the future......but there's no love when it's bad news
And I didn't get near my expected 20cm to 1200m in the NW, guess the winds were too strong and we missed out on convection behind the main front....it was an unusual pattern, so you always learn something, and there are still a few cm's potentially later today and it looks wintery. This is at 1600-1800m.
Nothing has changed from the mid range view cited a few days ago, as per the 3 mean anomaly charts for the turn of the month.....high pressure remains over greenland-iceland, but critically most of the alps are also under a high. The only thing worse than an Azores high is actually an Azores low.....if that makes any sense
So we're not going anywhere until that euro high block moves on. As above there is scope for small features to crop up, especially for northern ridge and eastern end, but will need a little bit more consistency to make a forecast.
As Scott points out some ECM runs are looking colder than GFS, but you can see the mean temps on the ensembles are similar enough, below for Davos area. If anything ECM mean is slightly higher, seems to be a known bias, or GFS is too cold.
Interesting to see such a wide scatter on ECM from 27-30th.....which tells me there is no point looking into early Dec until the end of Nov synoptics are clearer.
TLDR....dry and mild
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@polo
Did you get enough for a hiked powder run? I remember last year you managed to make us rather jealous in the early season. Is your back up for it yet?
@elefantfresh, sadly no, first time in the 9 years I've had a place there that I won't be making first tracks....I might manage a long dog walk, we'll see
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
polo wrote:
@davidof, they are pretty good,
I've found that most people, including Wepowder, overpredict but I guess nobody likes the bad news bears. People were talking about 4 meters in this parish a week ago !
So I was thinking (as I said previously) around 60cm of snow for the week, which isn't over yet, perhaps a bit more around in the Mont Blanc range.
What have we got so far (from the Meteo France weather stations):
Mont Blanc Aiguilles Rouges: hard to tell as the wind has blown everything away but it looks like 40cm
Beaufortain: 60cm with the zero iso briefly at 2300m yesterday
Belledonne: 40cm
Bellecote (la Plagne, 3000m): 80cm
Haute Tarentaise (2500m): 50cm
Haute Maurienne: 10cm
Looking ahead a chance of snow/rain on Monday then perhaps more unsettled weather at the end of the month: rain turning to snow.
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After all it is free
@davidof, was a good call....pays to be on the conservative side, all the models seem to over-estimate, especially GFS (had peak depths of 150-180cm)
but we often forget that when models say 40cm tues and 30cm thurs, you have to account for the fact it's falling on warm ground this time of year and there will be a lot of compression, so even if the amounts falling are close to the mark, you don't get near a 70cm depth, and then the wind as you say was wild
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telford_mike wrote:
@afterski, I've seen cannons running at minus 20, so if there is a lower limit it isn’t a meaningful one in the context of European ski villages.
I've just gone down a Chat GPT rabbit hole on snow making whilst watching the guns continually working on the webcams in Lech. So a large fan gun can make about a 50m olympic swimming pools worth of snow in 24 hours (2500 m3). The pole type can do about 10-20% of that. That is a lot more than I had anticipated.
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@afterski, Is that working on the assumption of snow being 10x the volume of water?
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That is working on the assumption that Chat GPT says a fan gun can make 100 m3 of snow an hour and I asked it to tell me what a regular object might be that would equal that (a small residential pool).
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
We skied this morning. Was visible wind loading but excellent cover and didn’t touch anything. Around 60cm measured on the skin track around 2300m
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
polo wrote:
you have to account for the fact it's falling on warm ground this time of year and there will be a lot of compression,
even more once a piste basher runs over it
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Just for fun I was thinking about some of the ways to get to great winter set-ups for Scotland and the alps.......and along came the GFS 6z run today.
3 days time and the vortex looking pretty organised and slap bang on top of the pole -
As per Cohen a page or 2 back stratospheric vortex looking like it will force tropospheric vortex to spin up. Need some help from tropospheric pattern.
4 days later 2 ridges squeeze vortex a bit -
Another 3 days and the holy grail of cross polar heights link up (nearly) and split vortex -
Only going one way from here - stonking Greenland high and deep Scandi trough shoving proper cold, exciting weather into W Europe -
All just for fun of course - dreaming of Nov/Dec 2010
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@scottishandy, interesting charts. I'm not seeing much certainty between any of the models past the 26th November.
Anything could happen in December
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Bavarian radio giving out avalanche warnings for the Allgau alps. Apparently one of the small areas is going to open their lifts at the weekend.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Boarderfarce wrote:
@scottishandy, interesting charts. I'm not seeing much certainty between any of the models past the 26th November.
Anything could happen in December
Totally agree, it's nice to have attractive options on the table though.
Also interesting that this run starts with the cool pool which Polo highlighted on ECM a few days ago.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@BobinCH, that's only excellent cover because your skis are the width of battleships. (Very nice though )
Noticeable rise in temperatures this afternoon with the south-west wind. Zero iso will be > 3000 meters tomorrow. Some snow above 1500m starting Monday night. French Northern Alps.
Noticeable rise in temperatures this afternoon with the south-west wind. Zero iso will be > 3000 meters tomorrow. Some snow above 1500m starting Monday night. French Northern Alps.
Incredibly accurate mid range forecasts on this occasion then. Many days ago ECMWF forecast Saturday day time being the end of the intense cold by November standards, then mild, a return to cold on Tuesday. Hopefully.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Snow&skifan, always good to have forecasts confirmed. Except for rain.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Are some of those charts going to update, or will they continue to be a snapshot of the outlook when they were posted. I have found this confusing in the past. But then I find a lot of this confusing.......
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None of the charts posted will update here, they are just copy paste images of the projections at the time they were posted. Even then, they were just guesses of future patterns, so depending on how far away those guesses were projected, they will be wrong, on a sliding scale that is inversely proportional to t plus x, tending to zero
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
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