The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

A snowHead

‘Then on Thursday the jet stream is currently lined up for a direct hit due west. It doesn’t normally do that.’

@polo, The best route for the Haute Tarentaise hits La Rosiere and Sainte Foy straight in The Gob !

Could be interesting

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Am I seeing more of a view emerging of MAR trying to get up to Greenland again around the 29th-1Dec? Laughing

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Bergfex have just downgraded their precipitation / snow forecast after the first wave on Tuesday - both for the NW Alps as well as the Dolomites. It never goes the other way, does it?

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@Ackie68, definitely, models too quick to sweep away those 'stubborn' heights, but it will probably just mean the real cold stays north (UK) as SE europe likely to be also under a high.

Here are the 3 day10 means.....all variations on the same theme with GFS (middle) slowest to adjust, but SW flow towards alps via southerly jet. No anomalous mid atlantic ridge unfortunately, but high lat blocking keeps the overall temps down....maybe we get blocking further E/NE, for a colder and drier signal. Canon weather.

A few other developments....warm up is nailed on for the weekend but still looking like peaking on sun 24th, no consensus yet on how much rain and to what level, seems to be getting pushed back to mon/tues. Basically need the Iberian high to get in faster, divert the flow north of the alps, and then see the high move into the SE med. Best case a relatively short warm up with minimum porridge. But we are talking fine margins and a week away.

ICON 6z just out also keeps a recent trend for tracking the thurs low further south....leading to less mild air mixing in as it crosses and more disturbance ending up over the med...good for Italy

Jet stream on thurs/fri.....more NW than W, colder

Western alps, long snorkels

@franga, I've never been more relaxed. Even managed to get my socks on in under a minute this morning.

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Looking at the last 4 GFS depth charts, you could say there has been a slight 'downgrade' vs 24 hours ago, but then a recovery

Peak depths have gone from 181cm (yesterdays 12z), to 144 on 18z, then 149 on the 00z, and just now 157cm on the 6z update.

And this link has 6 models showing predicted snow depth out to Saturday....ECM (Yr and Bergfex) has 100+ around Zermatt. Swiss model has a 250cm peak further east. Other models 50-100 widespread.
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/swiss-mrf/rhone-alpes/snow-depth/20241123-1200z.html

As usual, just run to run swings and model to model variance

After all it is free

According to this reliable source, all good news.
https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/opencharts_meteogram?base_time=202411180000&epsgram=classical_15d&lat=46.7833&lon=9.66667&station_name=Arosa

The only conflict is how mild it’ll be (daily maxima) at altitude from next Sunday?

ECMWF median forecast is 3c, MeteoSwiss +6c. Fine margins so far out.

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The GFS 06z just out shows the perfect outcome for next week, too perfect, and an outlier, but nice to see.
First the Iberian high nudges the potential rain north of the alps on Sunday towards the north sea

Leaving a sharp thermal gradient either side of the SW flow, eg 1500m temps of zero in UK and 8C over alps. With cold air trapped over northern Italy, looks like sud fohn?

Temps continue to rise Monday up to a scorching 12C at 1500m along northern ridge before dramatically collapsing overnight back to zero on Tuesday/Wednesday, for more snow.

Anyway it’s a long stretch, just one possibility and against the run of play for 25-26th……as mean temps are only expected to come back down to climate average next week, about 3-4C, with a 2000m FL. But the various model outputs aren’t giving any consensus on pattern / detail, so not much to add.

Re-visiting the 3 mean anomaly charts for the 27th, now at day9, the GFS has caught up with the other 2, so they all show heights near Iceland as well as over Balkans and to the east, leaving alps in no man’s land. Cold air only reaches UK, while a large Azores low sits it out in the Atlantic. Stalemate for now. We need to lose the heights over balkans and gain heights in the east Atlantic or get something completely different like a scandi high.

Anyway all of that speculation is beyond the reliable. No major change short term, ECM has slightly lowered thurs snow, but ICON has bumped it up. Just looking at pressure chart I would expect Thursday to very good, maybe bigger than Tuesday, but most models don’t agree with me. Let’s see, I’ve caught them out before Cool

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Somebody give this man a job!
Thanks @Polo - great insight as always

You know it makes sense.

amazing insight and gratefully recd

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

Ah come on, I’m just copy pasting and spinning a story…..hope others chip in,and that soon my back will allow me to get off this iPad and out into the wild and treacherous snow covered meadows below 1800m

A snowHead

I havent understood a word uve said polo but im grateful for it Happy

A snowHead

Fair enough, I like to throw in some unnecessarily technical terms to sound like a meteorologist…..I could have just said:

Heavy snow for much of alps, followed by warm and hopefully dry weekend, next week more normal but uncertain

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Very happy with the new twist next week let’s hope it’s stays that way , perhaps @polo, we have the fantastic in depth analysis, with a paragraph like the above either at the start or the end . Kee- up the good work

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Looking good. Non-hyperbolic MeteoSuisse and MeteoFrance both forecast it snowing by tomorrow evening and much colder.

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@Rob Mackley, tbh I probably shouldn’t have highlighted the 25/26, was just a surprise to even see such an option…..most likely to be under mild high pressure

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@polo, No worries I would have spotted it .

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Val all white this am it seems .now lets have three days constant

After all it is free

well it's trying to settle on my terrace table at 1,020 masl Happy

@polo, ummm outlook next week is becoming more palatable

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Snow at 50 metres in Liverpool

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Live webcams of pistes in Parc National des Écrins show snow already settling down to 1,800m.

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@twoodwar, yeah was gonna say, Chamonix has nothing on the micro climate snow magnets around nottingham and stoke-on-trent

Snowline already at 1400m in the Haute Savoie, but we know the FL is going to rise tonight and thurs evening to about 1900m

@Rob Mackley, that GFS 00z is a big outlier vs the mean, and although it has repeated now for a few runs, and has support from GEM, every other model and run is saying otherwise...no change in my view, maybe brief high altitude snow in NW tues, but odds on next week will be dry for the vast majority and around average temps, 3-5c at 1500m, but still a wide scatter.

And a very deep low developing over Ire for Sunday.....thankfully still on track to stay well north of the alps

You know it makes sense.

@polo, knew you’d have a Mersyside focus Very Happy

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

anyone interested in deciphering the charts in laymans terms just ask questions.......am off for sauna therapy now but plenty of knowledgeable folk on here to help

A snowHead

A snowHead

@Ackie68, I'll go to any lengths to get on the snow again

OK, no more personal / unrelated content from me at least....banter, weather nonsense great.....but it gets messy if we don't try at least to keep it fully weather outlook focused.
Looks like the snowline is holding up around 1600m here locally, despite the rain now up to 1700m in the NW alps. Should be all good from tonight onwards for low level snow out to Friday....apart from the short spike in temps on thursday evening (just a few hours of rain so I don't expect much snow loss) and then Friday there should be some very wintery scenes to the valley floor.

Sometimes looking 7-10 days ahead you can make a confident call.....but next week is not one of those times. No consensus across the models, apart from high pressure trying moving back in.
I'll spend a bit more time explaining the charts....hard to tell how many people understand them, or have any interest in understanding them, but I'll crack on regardless, as I've always been keen to share my relatively limited knowledge with people whether they want it or not Cool

So exhibit one...the latest GFS chart for Friday 29th. This is just one model, showing one run (the 12 o clock, or "12z" if you are a wannabe meteorologist), and this model runs every 6 hours.
There is very little chance of a single Op run being right 10 days ahead. (Op refers to Operational, which just means the main run, or set of calculations, made at midday today). There are 30 other ensemble runs that are done at the same time, but we'll get to those another time. The data they use comes from weather bhoys, ships, planes, satelittes etc. There is even a live chart you can view of the location of the various ships and planes....some other time.

My only point today, is to show you this run, for day10 (+240 hours)...cause it's an interesting synoptic (pattern), and shows how temperatures are effected by the pressure pattern and the corresponding air source of their isobars.
So it caught my eye because France is the only country in Europe under low (or near neutral) pressure (ok Swiss too).
The main feature here is that europe is 'blocked', which means under a large area of high pressure....all those yellow and orange colours. While the stormy cold weather (blue low pressure) is confined to Greenland / Iceland and the arctic. As an aside this is a +NAO chart....but not important for now.

The key point is even if europe is blocked from stormy weather, it can still be cold. Once you start to get high pressure building up at high lattitudes (in this case Scandinavia), you will get cold air circling back under the high. Air flows clockwise around high pressure (and anti clockwise around lows) in the northern hemisphere, so you will get cold air from the arctic coming down the east side of a scandi high, and then under it travelling west back into europe.
In this case it makes it's way to france, which is really a "cut-off" low, as it's surrounded by high pressure, as you can see on the corresponding temp chart below.

So most of central and eastern europe is chilly, despite being under high pressure. Anyway, more later

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

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@Ackie68, yeah it's just one of many options that far out.....but look at ECM 12z....freaky.....colder chart as cleaner scandi high, albeit we want the high further north ideally

@davidof, what would you consider significant? It's very likely to be 50-100cm above 1800m, maybe more.....for mid-ish Nov

After all it is free

@polo, I'm thinking around 60cm at altitude to Friday and maybe 10cm in the valleys, enough to cause some traffic issues on Thursday.

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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

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