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The All New Weather Outlook 24/25

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
On my years on here I don't think Ive ever read a long range forecast like above which turned out to be correct for the following winter season.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
US 2024-25 winter predicted to be warmer and rainier than average.

Given the boiling ocean temperatures right now, it's hard to see anything but a warm winter for the Northern Hemisphere in the upcoming months.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
munich_irish wrote:
How much use these sort of forecasts are is arguable but neither ECM or UK met office are suggesting a snowy start to the winter for most of Europe (head to Scandinavia maybe) https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-first-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ .

This thread will be on fire from November onwards rolling eyes
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Good to see snow, even though it is transient on the high mountain webcams this morning!
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
munich_irish wrote:
How much use these sort of forecasts are is arguable but neither ECM or UK met office are suggesting a snowy start to the winter for most of Europe (head to Scandinavia maybe) https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-first-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ .


Well, Tirol looks ok on the ECMWF in December. I hope this means the beginning of December as I'm in Lech Dec 10th.

And January in France looks decent too according the Met Office. Also happy with this as just confirming a chalet in Val Thorens early Feb.



However if I look at the opposite model for the opposite months then both my trips will be a disaster....! Shocked rolling eyes


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Fri 6-09-24 15:45; edited 1 time in total
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Does anyone have any thoughts on likely weather themes for the rest of September in the Italian Dolomites (roughly speaking Cortina area)? My parents were hoping to spend a few weeks in the area walking, via ferrata, etc, but the short term forecast doesn't appear exactly inspiring right now!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@TJ1, There does seem to be a big change in the weather coming in on Sunday evening. I know I am the other side of the mountains to Cortina but a quick look at the forecast for Cortina suggests almost identical to here (which is unusual). We have had (and have at the moment) warm / hot sunny weather with a few thunder storms for weeks now but Sunday night seems to be a change for around 10 days to cool damp / wet weather. Looks like it might be back to more typical September weather - dry and sunny but not too warm, after that. Might see some snow on the glaciers Smile
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
munich_irish wrote:
How much use these sort of forecasts are is arguable but neither ECM or UK met office are suggesting a snowy start to the winter for most of Europe (head to Scandinavia maybe) https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2024-2025-first-snowfall-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ .


Oh dear, should I cancel my Les Arcs Christmas trip then? snowHead
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Always makes me happy to see this yearly thread appear...winter is near!!
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Sub zero temps and snow showers showing up on the forecast for the highest tops in Scotland on Tuesday and Wednesday.
snowHead
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Peter S wrote:
Sub zero temps and snow showers showing up on the forecast for the highest tops in Scotland on Tuesday and Wednesday.
snowHead


And much lower temps for a day or two in the Alps next weekend. Could see the hills turn white for 24hrs before autumn returns.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
I think there was a bit of snow there in the higher resorts in the Alps in the last few days
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
From Meteo Alpes du Nord:

The cold (for the season) is inviting this week with a beautiful and extensive cold anomaly in perspective
As far as the Northern Alps are concerned, temperatures will drop significantly behind the cold front expected in the night of Wednesday to Thursday
The height of the isotherm will "crash" from 4000m at the beginning of the week to 1500m. In this cold air mass, light snowfall will occur Thursday and Friday
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
We waved goodbye to summer at 6pm this evening, from a warm & sunny 28 degrees to a wet 18 degrees. Wet all week with lowering temperatures, a maximum of 7 next Saturday. Some sign of a return to more normal autumn weather by the following weekend. We should see significant snow fall in the mountains over the next 10 days. Nothing particularly unusual about September snow, it is normally gone within a week but it could be good news for anyone contemplating a glacier skiing trip come October.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Forecast suggest 1m plus for schladming, snowline between 1000 and 1500m. Bike Park will be fun next weekend.

https://www.bergfex.at/schladming-planai/wetter/berg/
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
it could be good news for anyone contemplating a glacier skiing trip come October
Or bad news for anyone who has booked a couple of nights in refuges at about 2,200m in the Austrian Tirol for 15 & 16 September - ie me and Mrs MA... Shocked
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2024/09/08/first-snowfall-on-the-way-with-excessive-precipitation-amounts

Beginning to look a lot like ski seas

Although flooding risk seems high sadly
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@mountainaddict, snow shoes / touring skis?

@8611, There have already been a number of incidents of landslides caused by excessive rainfall eg St Anton / Stanzertal, the amounts being forecast might mean more similar incidents
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Quote:
snow shoes / touring skis?
The terrible Austria forecast in @8611's post above makes it look like a bit of a write off - a probable navigation nightmare at altitude, with paths/way markers all snow covered in whiteout conditions; and possible flooding and landslides lower down Confused

Not looking like much fun to be in the mountains.
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mountainaddict wrote:
Not looking like much fun to be in the mountains.


The first of many times this is said in this thread. Let's get the water skis out boys, it's going to be wild out there..
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@mountainaddict, I have had some really good days out later in September post the first snow. A memorable trip along the Mittenwalder Hohenweg, it was actually easier with snow as in some of the gullies you could kick steps rather than plod up scree. However next weekend looks pretty miserable, sorry.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Not much fun when its snowing

But surely could be some (considerable) fun in Hintertux after? I would think they could get 20km plus open with that snow
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Cheers @munich_irish and @8611.

Sat 14th Sept is our travel day (flying into Memmingen with Ryanair). We fly back on Wed 18th, after a 4 night trip.

As it stands, we've got refuge bookings in the Stubai Valley as follows:
- Sun15th - Hike up from the valley to the Sulzenau Hütte.
- Mon 16th - Onward to the Nürnberger Hutte.
- Tue 17th - Back down to the valley. We'll be staying near Memmingen Airport that night.

As we're travelling down to Stansted on Friday, we're planning on making a decision on the Hütte stays (or not) by Thursday. Looking at the current forecast, we're minded to book a three night valley stay somewhere, with a view to day walks, come rain or shine, potentially at a lower level. We love Austria and will hopefully make the best of whatever weather we get.
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@mountainaddict, I have stayed in both huts a few times. Assuming decent weather there is a "secret" view from a small lake on the route between the two huts, you can get a mirror image of the Wilder Freiger and nearby peaks in the surface of the tarn. I remember the Mairspitze being a fairly steep haul though another good view from the cross at the summit. The Wilder Freiger used to be an easy snow peak though no idea what state the glacier is in these days, long way back for the Innsbruck bus on a hot summer day! Definitely need decent weather not places to get stuck out in a blizzard!
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mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
snow shoes / touring skis?
The terrible Austria forecast in @8611's post above makes it look like a bit of a write off - a probable navigation nightmare at altitude, with paths/way markers all snow covered in whiteout conditions; and possible flooding and landslides lower down Confused

Not looking like much fun to be in the mountains.

If you haven't already found it, this is an excellent live streaming webcam site for current conditions, cycling through many of the Austrian resorts including Neustift/StubaiGletscher

https://www.youtube.com/live/NIuO6hrFTrg?si=icC6EHbMUFoVec9t
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Any suggestion as to what whether I can expect at Lake Como in early October - not too far away and hoping to have late summer weather rather than autumn storms - so please can someone arrange that?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pisteoff wrote:
Any suggestion as to what whether I can expect at Lake Como in early October


weather?

damp in the morning but normally sunny and swimable in the afternoon, with a bit of luck
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@davidof, Thanks!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Thanks @geoffers.

Quote:
I have stayed in both huts a few times.
We've stayed in both over 20 years ago(!!) @munich_irish Had a great week doing the whole of the Stubai High Level Route.

No idea where the time goes! Laughing
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Wepowder now suggesting stupid amounts of snow on the Austrian glaciers in the next few days, many over 3m and 4m on the Kitzsteinhorn! How close this will be to reality no idea. Even lower down eg Saalbach & Flachau around 2m at the top though mostly rain at village level (hardly a surprise in early September) https://wepowder.com/en/forecast#snow-cumulative:144
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:
Wepowder now suggesting stupid amounts of snow on the Austrian glaciers in the next few days, many over 3m and 4m on the Kitzsteinhorn!

That's absolutely insane @munich_irish Shocked Shocked Shocked It's saying up to 2m at valley level in some places!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Salzburg and Steiermark avalanche services waking up from there summer rest for the incoming weather

https://lawine-steiermark.at/ (may have to navigate to the lates news section)

https://lawine.salzburg.at/blog/beitrag/?tx_news_pi1%5Bnews%5D=60&cHash=0508e7660f9d194e1810563b1e05b41a
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
Wepowder now suggesting stupid amounts of snow on the Austrian glaciers in the next few days, many over 3m and 4m on the Kitzsteinhorn!

That's absolutely insane @munich_irish Shocked Shocked Shocked It's saying up to 2m at valley level in some places!


Seems like the perfect storm, loads of moisture tracking NE from warm Med hitting a cold flow from NW and dumping crazy amounts over the Eastern Alps! snowHead snowHead

Likely flooding events lower down too! Shocked

Could seriously impact the September hiking season! Puzzled

They call it a Vb Low, where the V is the Roman numeral 5 and describes one of the possible tracks for lows over Central Europe, more explanation here:

https://meteonews.fr/en/News/N14152/What-is-a-Vb-low%3F
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^ Nice nerdy link about vb, was always visual basic or Victoria Bitter for me, seems like all the VBs are pretty good.
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I’ve had powder turns the last couple of days here in Remarkables and Coronet Peak in New Zealand. Winter in spring. Very Happy
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munich_irish wrote:
Wepowder now suggesting stupid amounts of snow on the Austrian glaciers in the next few days, many over 3m and 4m on the Kitzsteinhorn! How close this will be to reality no idea. Even lower down eg Saalbach & Flachau around 2m at the top though mostly rain at village level (hardly a surprise in early September) https://wepowder.com/en/forecast#snow-cumulative:144


Our Hausberg, Katrin (touring only) is predicting 80cm over the next few days….a mere 1400m high!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
A few images of September snow in the Bavarian alps https://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker/der-winter-klopft-an-der-erste-schnee-in-den-alpen--e1d88f2d-fff3-47ee-952f-abca93241c61
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
webcams here for schladming, plenty of snow coming down https://www.bergfex.at/schladming-planai/webcams/c977/
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Snow in town here in Wanaka NZ this morning. Quite a rarity at less than 300 metres elevation.
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Quote:
A few images of September snow in the Bavarian alps
Incredible low-level video footage on that link
@munich_irish, as well as info. about significant avalanche risk. We've cancelled our Tirol trip this weekend (and the mountain refuge bookings) Confused


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