 Poster: A snowHead
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| pam w wrote: |
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Hospitalisations were shorter and deaths fewer than with Delta and yet we are told that this is due to higher levels of immunity and younger age of population - UK has almost 3 times higher rate of vaccination which may offset this demographic advantage.
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My understanding (which might well be wrong) is that because of the low levels of vaccination in S Africa the population made a big leap forward in immunity after high rates of infection by Delta. So hospitalisation would have been lower anyway, even if there were no difference in virulence of Omicron. So Omicron has had less of an impact on severe illness and death in S Africa, than Delta did in S Africa. Transferring that difference across to a completely different population is not straightforward. Apples and Pears. |
Some published medical opinion opines there is no immunity legacy from Delta in the face of Omicron. Who knows 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Covid cases seem relatively flat, even declining today in some parts of northern Britain.
Sooner or later though the Omicrons are going to find a way out of London to overwhelm the Deltans!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| chocksaway wrote: |
@The Flying Snowplough, The numbers going into hospital are increasing slightly, the total number in hospital is plateauing, the number in intensive care is falling slightly. Given over 47 % of over 12s have now had a booster, there is cause for hope.
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Sorry to say that is not the whole story. The average is hiding the truth to some extent. If you look at where the Omicron wave is most advanced, London, you get a different picture. Admissions are up, total in hospital is rising, and at the same time staff absence is going through the roof. I know we all want top wish it away by pretending Omicron cases less severe illness, that it is all a storm in a tea cup, it is all ok because few people are dying right now. Just a tiny bit of deeper analysis shows a much more worrying picture.
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There may be some additional restrictions coming, but lockdown like before, I doubt it.
Not unless they want riots and unrest like Holland to deal with as well.
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| NickyJ wrote: |
Except people aren’t going about their business as usual. Restaurants and theatres etc have seen massive cancellations. Mask wearing is mandatory which allegedly makes a difference. People have been asked to limit their social interactions to what really matters and there is evidence that people are listening |
That's good news. It's more useful if "people" take it seriously and curtail their social activity than another government one-size-fit-all lockdown. And hopefully the change of behavior might help avoid the latter.
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| zikomo wrote: |
| chocksaway wrote: |
@The Flying Snowplough, The numbers going into hospital are increasing slightly, the total number in hospital is plateauing, the number in intensive care is falling slightly. Given over 47 % of over 12s have now had a booster, there is cause for hope.
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Sorry to say that is not the whole story. The average is hiding the truth to some extent. If you look at where the Omicron wave is most advanced, London, you get a different picture. Admissions are up, total in hospital is rising, and at the same time staff absence is going through the roof. I know we all want top wish it away by pretending Omicron cases less severe illness, that it is all a storm in a tea cup, it is all ok because few people are dying right now. Just a tiny bit of deeper analysis shows a much more worrying picture. |
Are Omicron cases driving the rise in hospitalisations in London? I’m no expert but the current state of play in London is sure due to Delta infections filtering through and/or undiagnosed Omicron cases from before when it was officially recognised. There just aren’t enough official Omicron cases to have driven meaningful hospitalisation stats I’d have thought.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| abc wrote: |
| NickyJ wrote: |
Except people aren’t going about their business as usual. Restaurants and theatres etc have seen massive cancellations. Mask wearing is mandatory which allegedly makes a difference. People have been asked to limit their social interactions to what really matters and there is evidence that people are listening |
That's good news. It's more useful if "people" take it seriously and curtail their social activity than another government one-size-fit-all lockdown. And hopefully the change of behavior might help avoid the latter. |
I wonder how much of the anecdotal evidence from the hospitality industry is genuine though. If you can sweet talk rishi into doling out free cash again then what’s not to like?
My single data point is our local cafe which was absolutely rammed today when I picked up a takeout. (We’re isolating as currently a “Plague House”.)
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when I picked up a takeout.
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Hmmmm, my wife uses that one and it really rips my knitting.
Its a takeaway unless you are from the US of A, or are an extra on Friends, no ???
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@GreenDay, aye, takeaway, kerryoot, and messages.
Don't get me started on the lunch/dinner debate. 
I'm off to order a takeaway for my tea.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@GlasgowCyclops, Oooft - my wife has just ordered a Thai delivery (so, no controversy there)...........but its for my dinner 
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Have a look at john Burns Murdoch's most recent thread. 80% or so of London's so-called Covid hospitalisations were admitted for reasons other than Covid. Given how prevalent omicron is (and will be), this distinction between 'with covid' and 'of covid' is going to become really important.
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Sat 18-12-21 19:26; edited 1 time in total
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You know it makes sense.
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Holland blinks first - suspect may be a lovely night there tonight
Mind you (conspiracy theory alert) will it get reported? There was allegedly a protest march in London today and I’ve seen nothing on news
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| GreenDay wrote: |
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when I picked up a takeout.
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Hmmmm, my wife uses that one and it really rips my knitting.
Its a takeaway unless you are from the US of A, or are an extra on Friends, no ??? |
Carryout surely?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| JamesHJ wrote: |
| GreenDay wrote: |
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when I picked up a takeout.
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Hmmmm, my wife uses that one and it really rips my knitting.
Its a takeaway unless you are from the US of A, or are an extra on Friends, no ??? |
Carryout surely? |
Nope, as Glasgow Cyclops says - a takeaway is food, a cairryoot is bevvy
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Lots of vids of large crowds in London on Twitter and nothing on Beeb. Thought they were meant to report news impartiality
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| GreenDay wrote: |
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when I picked up a takeout.
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Hmmmm, my wife uses that one and it really rips my knitting.
Its a takeaway unless you are from the US of A, or are an extra on Friends, no ??? |
Semantics! It was a chilli burger with blue cheese and ****ing fantastic!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| GreenDay wrote: |
| JamesHJ wrote: |
| GreenDay wrote: |
| Quote: |
when I picked up a takeout.
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Hmmmm, my wife uses that one and it really rips my knitting.
Its a takeaway unless you are from the US of A, or are an extra on Friends, no ??? |
Carryout surely? |
Nope, as Glasgow Cyclops says - a takeaway is food, a cairryoot is bevvy |
Eating is cheating!
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@The Flying Snowplough, @The Flying Snowplough, I would love to debate further, but it appears the Thai has arrived.
Food then strictly - magnifico !
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| snowhound wrote: |
Have a look at john Burns Murdoch's most recent thread. 80% or so of London's so-called Covid hospitalisations were admitted for reasons other than Covid. Given how prevalent omicron is (and will be), this distinction between 'with covid' and 'of covid' is going to become really important.
https://twitter.com/drraghibali/status/1472134530173702145 |
This ^
Everyone admitted to hospital is tested for COVID; with low levels of community transmission, few will test +ve so few hospitalisations will be deemed COVID-related. With high community transmission, more will test positive even though the proportion of admissions which are genuinely due toCOVID may be no higher.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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| The Flying Snowplough wrote: |
| …. our local cafe which was absolutely rammed today when I picked up a takeout. (We’re isolating as currently a “Plague House”.) |
How can you be out collecting food whilst also ‘isolating’? I’m gonna tell the rozzers 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Dinner is the main meal - if it’s had at lunch time then it’s dinner, as in Sunday/Xmas dinner. The smaller meal in evening is then tea.
If it’s a small midday meal it’s lunch and you have dinner in eve
Simples
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Poster: A snowHead
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Even more hoping that they don’t lockdown- having now booked to second vaccine for my daughter on 30th for close to the area where we intend to be staying for attending funeral. Can’t get her that date or anywhere near it, anywhere local to home on that date (which is dead on 12 weeks)
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@pam w,
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There's a lot of wishful thinking going on
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That may well be the case, and as you say, the data isn't strong enough yet.
But as the NHS being overwhelmed, my wife and niece both work in our local teaching hospital and say the NHS is overwhelmed every winter! The UK normally sees circa 25-30,000 people a year die from flu and pneumonia and no-one bats an eyelid.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Red Leon wrote: |
| The Flying Snowplough wrote: |
| …. our local cafe which was absolutely rammed today when I picked up a takeout. (We’re isolating as currently a “Plague House”.) |
How can you be out collecting food whilst also ‘isolating’? I’m gonna tell the rozzers |
One of us is isolating officially. The rest of us are just keeping a low profile.
But good spot!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@abc, I'm with @KenX . No need to cause disruption and there is plenty of chat on there already.
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| mozwold wrote: |
| The UK normally sees circa 25-30,000 people a year die from flu and pneumonia and no-one bats an eyelid. |
The issue isn't with the numbers being admitted or dying from Omicron, it's that infection levels are high and will take a lot of front line workers/volunteers out of ICUs, the NHS and the immunisation programme over a short period of time. So there simply won't be the staff able to handle even the usual influx of patients over the winter. While at the same time staff shortages will be slowing the Booster Programme down as well.
The '25K die of flu and pneumonia anyway, so what's the fuss?' view misses the point. The fuss isn't about the numbers being admitted to hospital or dying. It's that a worrying number of Key Workers - not just in healthcare but in the supply chain, education, elderly care and the rest - will be at home with Covid over a relatively short period. It's a difficult call as to what action to take or not, thanks to lack of data, but on previous form, it seems 50:50 that we'll see more restrictions before the spring. Although it'll never be called a lockdown by anyone in the Cabinet.
There are lots of variations of this situation across the Alpine countries, so it seems to me that for this season at least, this 50:50 expectation applies - by all means make plans but engineer your holiday arrangements with a view to an even chance of them being cancelled. and however disappointing, there's no point in blaming governments or scientists if it happens. Plus, given the UK's own ongoing regulations, there is the question to ask yourself - "Can I afford to be stranded abroad due to a positive return test from just one person in my group?"
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| The Flying Snowplough wrote: |
| Boris wrote: |
SAGE do love their gloomy predictions
I don’t believe there will be another lockdown, can’t afford it and I don’t think many people will take any notice.
If it’s doubling every day, everyone will have it come NYE |
Prof Ferguson does seem to be on the gloom end of the scale. His predictions of doom over the summer post Freedom Day certainly didn’t come to pass. So whilst the current situation isn’t good, the Ferguson predictions hopefully won’t come to pass. |
The guy is a gucking menace who had consistently been wrong about every modelling prediction.
Why the  he is held in good standing and people listen to his horseshit is beyond me.
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Worth a read given it is this modelling which has put the Government in a tizz this weekend...
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/my-twitter-conversation-with-the-chairman-of-the-sage-covid-modelling-committee
The general theme is that they only get asked to do pessimistic scenarios because they are the ones which would require action. Which might be why we did far better over the summer and autumn than even the best case scenario SAGE put forward.
I see why they only do this, but without any sort of balance (this is what might happen if omicron is less virulent) seems wrong, or even without giving probabilities to how likely it is likely to be.
Last edited by After all it is free  on Sat 18-12-21 23:02; edited 1 time in total
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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"Modals" are just that, modals! You make assumptions with the modal and get some kind of output. You know it's not real. Just a possibility of that happening.
Someone has to be the pessimist. If everyone uses the most optimistic assumptions, we'll have a biased collection of predictions, which does no good.
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@abc, Yes, but ONLY pessimistic ones.....? THAT'S the bias and one that only leads to decisions going one way.
And I get models-I am a mathematical physicist....but many people still see them as predictions, not possible scenarios (and ones with no probabilities attached).
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FAQ
