 Poster: A snowHead
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Verbier opens on Saturday for weekend skiing until full opening on 30th Nov. Forecast next week looks cracking for some early season pow skiing 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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lets hope that comes true.......lots can and will change but should be a decent base above 1800m after that
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| bensaunders1973 wrote: |
| VT have today confirmed they are opening on the 23rd as they have been making snow and they are confident of next weeks dump! Fingers Crossed! |
VT got the ramps built on snow park
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bloody Azores!!!! Lets see what the cold air next week does to the models....as you say....perhaps clutching at strawss 
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I shouldn't get caught up in the run to run noise, but GFS 6z is bad for low resorts on the 20th, keeping most of the snow above 1800m. Shows the risk still of the first wave mixing in too much warm air before the cold decends. And there is a very similar feature on thursday night, another small low joining from the south west, and a spike up to 2000m.
Not worth worrying about....the second low looks like an outlier, so hopefully the next set of 12z will be better.....overall most models still looking very good, high altitude will be loaded
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@polo, snow above 1800m in Nov probably pretty usual in recent years???
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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This will be a record breaking year for low level november snowall in the NW alps for even years, this century.
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For even years 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@denfinella, if anyone tries to fact check me I'll add 'before the 21st, on a wednesday'
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You know it makes sense.
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Climatological norm is my hope rather than xs warmth, with that mean dropping...not expecting the extreme cold pattern to prevail
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Ackie68 wrote: |
| Climatological norm is my hope rather than xs warmth, with that mean dropping...not expecting the extreme cold pattern to prevail |
Based on a scientific insight on the current situation, or a layman's mental conditioning from recent mild winters?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Ackie68, let’s hope the models are wrong then!
Warm and nothing until January doesn’t sound appealing at all.
Not a thing anyone can do about it anyway. Just need to let it all play out. A week today things will look very different I think.
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Sorry if this is a stupid question but could a cold event such as we are expecting next week impact future weather for the region?
I mean, if regional temperatures have been lowered by snow at low levels then historically, will they be more likely to stay that way? Does snow on the ground mean the likelihood of marginal rain/snow weather events ending up as snow more likely?
Again, sorry if this is a dumb question. I’m just curious to know if this event and subsequent ground temps will in any way shape the winter weather as a whole.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Not really snow on the ground, micro climate , wont make a difference, more about if the future macro models change their view after digesting the big change we are going to get next week....but in reality the real, macro cold is driven by high or lack of high pressure in the Atlantic ideally over Greenland and Iceland for UK cold. If we have blocking highs up north which allows cold air to dig in south from the artic which will happen next week especially for UK but all of Europe we hope. A high over northern Europe "Scandi high" promotes the cold to dig in further south. If one has both, we are in for more sustained, widespread deep freeze.
What we are looking to avoid is low pressure replacing the high over northern latitudes which pulls up warmer wind patterns from the atlantic and Azores, that seems to be what the current models are looking at later in the month ...but this is all to far away to be certain....lots will change for sure.
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Thanks for that Ackie. Beyond looking out for my own trips this winter I find reading predictions of where things will go utterly fascinating.
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@polo a bit of chatter that the Greenland high is being modelled to be quite stubborn to move. Whether it just keeps Northern parts inc UK cold or could it keep the cold further south too?
Will be really interesting to see the models next week
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I like this thread but far too much crystal ball stuff. Dump next week and potentially nothing until January is just fantasy. The thread should be kept to the next week or two something that might come true rather than scaremongering.
@polo seems to have a great hold on the near view enjoyable read.
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10-14 days is the absolute max that I would take interest in, I’ve simply never seen any forecaster / modelling / climate driver that has a consistent useful predictive edge beyond week 2. But some very smart people on semi pro sites (netweather) can make mid range calls based on say the MJO phase for example, polar vortex state and things like atmospheric angular momentum, but they get it wrong plenty of times too due to overriding factors etc, or a change in signal / amplitude. There is definitely some value in these teleconnections, and interesting to read, but again there’s no single reliable source / driver that I’ve seen.
And then with hindsight, how can you even tell if a Greenland high block was caused by X factor or Y factor, or just by chance, with no drivers / forcing.
I’ll get back about the effect surface snow/ice has on the weather, unless others chip in, but as above, there’s no micro climate or feedback loop for the alps, it’s too small and variable an area compared to parts of the arctic. Which btw after another slow refreeze start is now doing quite well and above the average of last 10years, but well behind the averages of 80’s to 00’s.
@Ackie68, yeah the models are quick to lose it unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much support/ favourable background.
But it’s one of those features in general that the models repeatedly get wrong, ie they often underestimate the resilience of blocking, whether that’s in Europe or scandi or anywhere. But hard to make a case for a Greenland high right now unless new signal emerges soon
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Sat 16-11-24 11:15; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Re Scaremongoring
Thread was started Weather Outlook 24/25 for forecasts and trends + conditions in general not specific resorts etc.
Even 2 weeks out is "fantasy"
So you could say "forecasts" model outputs as scaremongering if the outlook looks like little snow and warm airmasses, but if that is what the forecasts say or don't say, and only non-"scaremongering" posts are allowed, it could be a quite sparse thread at times...as it looks like for December....at the moment, but it's only an outlook or forecast and it will change...
if one wants "weather" "next week" you really do need to look at specific regional/resort reports/forecasts as in the Alps most of the time no-one can be that specific. The thread said keep resort specific stuff elsewhere.
Trends are all we have + the models but what is for sure, 3 days out we know what's going to happen but not with a accurate impact on any one location from the broad models. further out that that things change....as per one comentator picked up for UK:
I always mention the risk of disturbances/features popping up when we have unstable cold air filtering in 8z ECM generates a small low, maybe a Polar low? This delivers snow down the spine of the UK. Keep an eye out for the models picking these features up as we get closer in.
All fun and games.
and yes Polo does know his stuff.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| polo wrote: |
@Ackie68, yeah the models are quick to lose it unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be much support/ favourable background.
But it’s one of those features in general that the models repeatedly get wrong, ie they often underestimate the resilience of blocking, whether that’s in Europe or scandi or anywhere. But hard to make a case for a Greenland high right now unless new signal emerges soon |
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| polo wrote: |
| 10-14 days is the absolute max that I would take interest in, I’ve simply never seen any forecaster / modelling / climate driver that has a consistent useful predictive edge beyond week 2. But some very smart people on semi pro sites (netweather) can make mid range calls based on say the MJO phase for example, polar vortex state and things like atmospheric angular momentum, but they get it wrong plenty of times too due to overriding factors etc, or a change in signal / amplitude. There is definitely some value in these teleconnections, and interesting to read, but again there’s no single reliable source / driver that I’ve seen. |
I try to comprehend Judah Cohen @judah47 judahcohen.org a forecaster/snowhead from the states but his brain is the size of Greenland and brainwaves the size of the polar vortext as it weakens like right now!
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You know it makes sense.
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It's good to have multiple informed posters on this thread; I'm all for a variety of angles and timescales being discussed here 
A lot of focus on the NW Alps (understandably given the forecast), but how are the rest of the Alps likely to be looking after the coming week?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@polo thank you as always.
Looking beyond the ECMWF timeframe (for example) is pretty pointless imo.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Ackie68, you saying Mr Cohens brain is now weakening?
Yeah I read a lot of technical stuff, don't understand much of it, and then try to present the basic ideas....complete amateur hour, but enjoy trying to read the tea leaves.
And you can never have too many colourful graphs with mystic messaging. Here's a look at the 'regime' predictions from ECM for the mid range.
First graph from 10 days ago showed the near term as solid red, ie 100% of all ensembles agreed we were under a massive anticyclone first half of novemeber, and europe was blocked.
Fast forward to today, and we see the Atlantic ridge regime is dominating the current week.
But if you look further into future, you can see how the expectations for early decemeber have changed, the reds have grown over the last 10 days (dry signal) and unfortunately the green -NAO signal or atlantic ridge (purple) is still looking less likely.
So all I take from that is a dry early start to dec is the marginal favourite, but then I immediately dismiss it as rubbish as it's not what we want to see and we're pretty sure it will change anyway 
Quick look at the strat PV.....slight weakening from a week ago, and we are heading into a dip as mentioned, but really just hovering around the norm for the time of year (red line thru the middle). Again looking forward, the mean of the ensembles (dark blue) is modelled to above average speed into Dec. Bear in mind these graphs are all from the same ECM mid range model, so understandly they show the same outcome.
Strat PV is generally better for us when it's weaker, as leads to less westerly / mild influence in the troposphere.....but we also have periods like now where the tail is wagging the dog, ie the weather down here is having more of an effect on the upper layers instead of the other way around, where the strat pv often impacts our winter patterns here. So the longer the two PV's (strat and trop) stay disconnected the better for Dec.
Wow, I managed to spend all that time telling you to just ignore the current warnings about early Dec.
Is it snowing yet?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@denfinella, more detail on other areas here.....and the well modelled roller coaster in freeze levels as those 2 short waves move across on tues and thurs. But ultimately I think the 2 SW lows have been a net positive, obviously huge gains at altitude, and they have stopped the main trough from drifting too far east.... essentially the westward phasing of the trough holds the pattern and cold air in place over the alps for 3-4 days, whereas otherwise it would probably be a shorter event
https://wepowder.com/en/weblog/2024/11/16/snowy-week-ahead-starting-with-the-northern-and-western-alps-on-tuesday
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| polo wrote: |
@Ackie68, you saying Mr Cohens brain is now weakening?
Yeah I read a lot of technical stuff, don't understand much of it, and then try to present the basic ideas....complete amateur hour, but enjoy trying to read the tea leaves.
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....no, his brainwaves just increase in amplitude as the PV weakens!
My interest was piqued when my undergrad tutor was Professor Ann Henderson-Sellers before she went back to Oz, I work in agri related industry where we do look at, and have faith in, some longer terms trends for the season including, where I'm involved, we have 10 year cycles on 50 year cycles with each season affected by annual factors - for snow is more by the pacific high pressures over Western Australia and IO dipoles ......but very much an amateur hour too.....
......and no it's not snowing.
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How nice to see so much discussion, nothing like a cold and Snowy week ahead to liven things up .
As last season it’s still beware the South West , one thing for sure it’s going to be warm and tropical again .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Ackie68, interesting background, I used to buy/sell Uk power before Enron blew up and the short term daily weather briefings was my first intro. Been interested in commodities ever since. Then moved to alps, found this place, then found netweather. I've never posted there, but if anyone wants to learn about literally anything weather related it's a great source. On the model thread you can tell if a particular run is good for UK snow or not if there are more than 5 pages of posts since the last run.
Back on topic, yep Rob and others have been right to be wary of next weekend, some strange looking charts.....it's 50/50 now imv on some very soggy powder
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Meteo France are dialing back on snowfall for the Alps. It seems like Tuesday will be the only really snowy day with the LPN/SL at 1700 meters in the Northern Alps. There will be flakes on the other days next week but nothing significant.
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Hmm, I wouldn't say that. The current forecast for Les Menuires suggests 1+ meters of snow from Tuesday to Friday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Météo France use the Arpege model out to day 5, not sure after that. But I haven’t seen verification stats on that model.
But any model in that range can be subject to big swings run to run for ppn, so best to compare vs a few sources like YR.NO (ECM) or snowforecast (GFS),…..most apps use that one.
There are a few higher resolution short term models too (eg MF uses Arome in France out to 48hrs), which are useful, but only to build a range of outcomes. Arome is actually my lower bound, always on the conservative side, but when it spikes up (summer storms) you have to take notice.
In any case, my personal take is always based on pressure pattern / thickness……can’t explain the physics, but dark blue sub 540 dam on the charts means good snow. We have almost 4 days of dark blue over the alps….heavy showers and high wind, followed by steady flow under slack winds in the inner valleys. Then on Thursday the jet stream is currently lined up for a direct hit due west. It doesn’t normally do that.
It’s going to be good
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| polo wrote: |
Météo France use the Arpege model out to day 5, not sure after that. But I haven’t seen verification stats on that model.
But any model in that range can be subject to big swings run to run for ppn, so best to compare vs a few sources like YR.NO (ECM) or snowforecast (GFS),…..most apps use that one.
There are a few higher resolution short term models too (eg MF uses Arome in France out to 48hrs), which are useful, but only to build a range of outcomes. Arome is actually my lower bound, always on the conservative side, but when it spikes up (summer storms) you have to take notice.
In any case, my personal take is always based on pressure pattern / thickness……can’t explain the physics, but dark blue sub 540 dam on the charts means good snow. We have almost 4 days of dark blue over the alps….heavy showers and high wind, followed by steady flow under slack winds in the inner valleys. Then on Thursday the jet stream is currently lined up for a direct hit due west. It doesn’t normally do that.
It’s going to be good |
Hi. MeteoFrance say this about their ensemble forecasts.
https://events.ecmwf.int/event/296/contributions/3247/attachments/1882/3384/UEF2022_Boisserie.pdf
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FAQ
looking warm again after the 24ish
