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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
hd wrote:
Piemonster wrote:
Snow forecast seems have dropped the temps in its forecast.

That's now out of date.
When SF updates to GFS 12Z in about 4 hours it will show much warmer temps, at least for the weekend.
It'll probably change again.


Another beer please barman!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Speculation that Hong Kong may see 1cm of snow in the next 7-10 days:

http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/1902717/desktop
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Whitegold wrote:
Speculation that Hong Kong may see 1cm of snow in the next 7-10 days:

http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/1902717/desktop


That's interesting - is there a trip report somewhere?

on a serious note - will be looking for a Tahoe forecast
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Weathercam wrote:
Looks like Corsica will be getting some along with Alpes Maritimes.



Is that heading into Northern Italy at all likely?
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@ishay, unfortunately Italy is the one place it won't fall (borders on the west might get 5cm or so).

A few parts of the northern Alps and Pyrenees could see 10-20cm. Most less.

The majority of it looks like falling in the sea.

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Top 10 North American ski resorts - For current snowfall totals.

http://unofficialnetworks.com/2016/01/the-ten-snowiest-ski-resort-so-far-this-season
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:


on a serious note - will be looking for a Tahoe forecast


@HeidiAmsterdam Here you go. Looks rather enticing. https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

FI models seem to point to the ridging that has been weakening and splitting storms to move and open up the snow machine. Not that having storms split but still deliver close to 2 feet in two days at a time has been all that bad either. But as we all know with FI, need to give it a few days to see how things shape up. But end of January could get interesting. Not that it hasn't been really good on the West Coast of North America, from Alyeska all the way down Mammoth way and into interior resorts like Taos.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
thanks @Toadman,

have a conference end of the month in SFO - but could be too much of a good thing, that snow. I still have to drive up the I-80 - or fly to Reno rolling eyes

going to get me an epic west coast ski experience Laughing
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HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Speculation that Hong Kong may see 1cm of snow in the next 7-10 days:

http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/1902717/desktop


That's interesting - is there a trip report somewhere?

on a serious note - will be looking for a Tahoe forecast



It has only snowed there 4 times in the past 150 years, so it is an extremely rare event.

Tahoe is getting blizzards on Tuesday and light snow for most of the rest of the week.
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Whitegold wrote:



It has only snowed there 4 times in the past 150 years, so it is an extremely rare event.


Sounds like some of the Bavarian resorts I've visited!
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@HeidiAmsterdam. We skied Heavenly @ Tahoe in Early December and although they'd had little snow it was fab. They ve since had multiple storms. My sis lives in SF and was up in Northstar last weekend epic conditions so I think the trip will be worth it. Just look at road conditions for the Donner pass before you decide to drive/fly.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
In Geneva this morning, snow is falling with about 2 inches on the ground, a good sign for the nearby mountains.
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much


Snowing lots of lovely fluffy white stuff in Les Arc 2000 this morning
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Whitegold wrote:
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
Speculation that Hong Kong may see 1cm of snow in the next 7-10 days:

http://app.scmp.com/scmp/mobile/index.html#/article/1902717/desktop


That's interesting - is there a trip report somewhere?

on a serious note - will be looking for a Tahoe forecast



It has only snowed there 4 times in the past 150 years, so it is an extremely rare event.

Tahoe is getting blizzards on Tuesday and light snow for most of the rest of the week.


Doesn't sound very likely this time either.

http://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/1902717/snow-hong-kong-city-facing-big-chill-internet
Just a bit chilly which happens from time to time.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
snowmam wrote:
@HeidiAmsterdam. We skied Heavenly @ Tahoe in Early December and although they'd had little snow it was fab. They ve since had multiple storms. My sis lives in SF and was up in Northstar last weekend epic conditions so I think the trip will be worth it. Just look at road conditions for the Donner pass before you decide to drive/fly.



I was thinking Northstar because I can drive up the I-80, which they clear before they clear Highway 50, which is what I'd take were I going to Heavenly or Kirkwood...
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Piemonster wrote:


Snowing lots of lovely fluffy white stuff in Les Arc 2000 this morning


Its a beautiful resort.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snowing in Chamonix😀
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@blahblahblah, cruel but had me laughing. Laughing
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Thank you Lemond: saved me from an embarrassing post - I thought blahblahblah was being serious Embarassed
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@blahblahblah,

Very Happy but yes, it is pig ugly. The (new this season) block I'm staying in is very nice however. So long as you try not to look at the surrounding buildings.

Still snowing as well.
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Hahnenkamm training openned this morning.

This is ZAMG's take (auf Deutsch)

http://www.zamg.ac.at/cms/de/wetter/eventwetter/archiv/hahnenkammrennen-in-kitzbuehel

Friday and the Super G looks sunny, but ZAMG make the point that the models are jumping from one forecast for another for Saturday and the downhill so it's not possible to make a reliable forecast yet.

Looks to me like the winds could be worth keeping an eye on and the 06z WRF has snow coming into Tirol on Saturday morning.




http://youtube.com/v/jKPukQrwIiw
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
12z GFS suggests a fair amount of snow headed for the eastern Alps from Saturday through Wednesday. I'd be a bit cautious about this for now as there is quite a bit of chopping and changing at present.

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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
The FLs look quite high on there for the Tyrol. That would be rain for a lot of the resorts.
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@nozawaonsen, what do you make of this and how could it impact on the alps
http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/blogs/entry/5-potential-sudden-stratospheric-warming/
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nozawaonsen wrote:
12z GFS suggests a fair amount of snow headed for the eastern Alps from Saturday through Wednesday. I'd be a bit cautious about this for now as there is quite a bit of chopping and changing at present.


Of course this is the case, it's the night race (tues) and it always snows. (in my experience at least)
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@Drammeister, they would be high if it happened and if those temperatures were forecast to stay as they were, but there's a few too many ifs to be over concerned at this stage (but worth keeping a watch on it).

@waynos, yes it does always seem to snow then doesn't it!! Almost mentioned that earlier.

@Renry, it's relatively self explanatory and a nice explanation by Matt Hugo. The increased possibility of an SSW later this winter and northern blocking as a result is something that's been mentioned a few times over the last few months (and there is more on SSWs in the last few years threads - often referring to blogs by Matt Hugo). If it did happen it could lead to a more prolonged period of dep cold across Europe. You'd see a -NAO and with that in place you'd have an increased chance of snow getting through to the besieged southern Alps. So also worth keeping an eye on.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And I indeed this morning's GFS has jettisoned any snow in the eastern Alps next week for settled and a little above average weather (possibly cooler the week after, but still for now settled and generally dominated by high pressure).

Still looks like some snow on Saturday.

For those curious about stratospheric warming here is some being shown on 00z GFS in early February.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Quote:

I feel a stubborn High coming on , after all this weather recently some in the North/West Alps some will be pleased of a respite ,



not for too long I hope , we all know how long it takes to shift them once in place !



as posted last Friday , forecasts have it lasting into Feb
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Im heading to Les Arcs for 28 Feb so like it to snow like hell until about 25th Feb with a few days to clear up and re-open followed by cold sunny days and snow showers overnight Very Happy

The reality will probably be a 5 week blocking high and warm temps (aka 'December 15') for everything to melt followed by rain for a week !
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Interesting 06z FI. High pressure builds in Scandinavia. Low pressure in the Mediterranean.



Very cold in Europe.



Heavy snow in southern Alps.

Just one run mind you, but interesting none the less.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
The last 2 ski trips Ive been on have had big dumps of snow on leaving day. Im off to the Via Lattea 24-31 January so could this be three in a row Wink ... Hope it comes true though at least giving one day of powder and more importantly anyone in the south in February!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting 06z FI. High pressure builds in Scandinavia.


BBC/Met Office alluding to that last night. Suggestion is that we could see a distinct east/west split in the UK with the east getting cold air from the north sea and the west enjoying milder Atlantic temps.

The first of the kids Scottish Alpine Series races are due to take place this coming weekend at the Lecht. The forecast is not looking good with heavy rain forecast on Friday and then 8c temps on Saturday with potential storm force winds on Sunday. Sad Sad Sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen,

Quote:


Interesting 06z FI. High pressure builds in Scandinavia. Low pressure in the Mediterranean.


If this came off great for the Sth Alps and those south of the Alpine ridge it's nice for the snow to be shared around .

Sadly still have that funny feeling were in for a prolonged dry spell albeit not warm period , I really hope I'm wrong , off at the start of Feb for two and a bit weeks and would like to have some regular top ups while I'm away .
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nozawaonsen wrote:


Heavy snow in southern Alps.



ooooooooo snowHead


*crosses fingers*
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Interesting 06z FI. High pressure builds in Scandinavia. Low pressure in the Mediterranean.

Very cold in Europe.

Heavy snow in southern Alps.

Just one run mind you, but interesting none the less.




Little tour today up on South facing slopes and almost spring snow on the descent below 1,800m, was quite pleasant Shocked
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@nozawaonsen, sorry but when you say Fi when would that scenario hit if it played out (fully aware that FI chops and changes!!)
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@RetroBod, Looks to be from 28th/29th ish....but it's only one run so needs to be repeated for 3/4 days to build certainty.

Morzine - Savoie


Zell am See - Salzburgerland


Dolomites
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@AthersT, would I be correct in reading that as "it's all going batsh!t crazy first week of Feb"? (I'm in Val d'Isere first week of Feb)
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Dr John wrote:
@AthersT, would I be correct in reading that as "it's all going batsh!t crazy first week of Feb"? (I'm in Val d'Isere first week of Feb)


No, too far out and too much disagreement at the moment.
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That black precipitation ensemble for the Dolomites looks crazy but also completely isolated from all other ensembles. Wonder what the 12z will make of it in an hour or so!
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