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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@HeidiAmsterdam, +1

There at half term. Sold on your trip report last year, so better be good wink

@nozawaonsen, any news?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Safe to say the Nordstau totally over delivered in Tirol.

Skied 40cms of powder at Nordkette yesterday, another 60-70cm fell over night, was a good metre on the ground at mid mountain today (can anyone say faceshots?), dumped all day, and still dumping now.

Danke Frau Holle!
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
12z GFS still has warning next weekend (that looks likely). But is way way down on the precipitation levels



Whether that's right or not we'll find out. But hopefully makes the point.

Those asking after the southern Alps? It looks very dry. Will mention it if it changes.
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bruisedskier wrote:
@HeidiAmsterdam, +1

There at half term. Sold on your trip report last year, so better be good wink

@nozawaonsen, any news?


Where are you staying? Our half term is after the UK half term - - which is a big plus when it comes to the cost of this trip.
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@nozawaonsen, dry and cold for Italy is fine by me. Sooner that then warm and wet...
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@nozawaonsen, is that chart for western and northern french alps? Is that the warm weather that snow forecast had? This time with lower rain fall?
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@chrisb, it's a chart for Chamonix. And yes the 12z op has much less rain/snow. Snowforecast.com will update to that soon if it has not already.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, cheers
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Are we in for a longer period of warming than first indicated a few days ago or do you see this as a blip.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 17-01-16 21:49; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen, that looks much better....potentially a long settled spell at average temps

Thanks for the advice a few pages back about short term forecasts, have started to bookmark local avalanche sites. You mentioned WRF..is that the Weather Research & Forecasting model? They have a lot of blurb and technical notes, but no pictures of little snowflakes or sunshine Sad . In fact I couldn't see any link to a weather model at all, just lots of release notes. All very complicated. Wrong place?

In any case I have enough short term links to keep me out of trouble. You have remarkable patience for the vast array of amateurs like myself.
Speaking of which, some car owner who parked on the main street (at 1130m) has a lot of digging to do
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@RetroBod, there isn't really a sensible way to answer the last part of your question.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Ok @nozawaonsen, sorry. Does @langball have the trend of it in that we are in for a settled spell?
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Next few weeks will be winter prices for spring weather and snow. Hope not for long.....
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Koleoptero wrote:
Next few weeks will be winter prices for spring weather and snow. Hope not for long.....



You know the weather for the next few weeks?
I don't know why they bother with those pesky supercomputers to try and predict it a few days in advance. They should just give you a call.
rolling eyes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Getting warmer by the end of the week, more settled and sunny.

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

And looks dry this weekend at present.

More generally we look like we are heading towards a high pressure dominated spell which doesn't suggest much in the way of new snowfall on the horizon.

Pick some good shades, strike a pose and get ready for some attention.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Like I say so often on here the weather / conditions can be so localised in the mountains.

Here in the Serre valley for the past four days we've had strong winds at resort level and howling gales at altitude stripping the fresh snow off and raising the avalanche risk to severe. Last Saturday there was an avalanche across a piste that Ken and I skied above on Thursday, http://www.ledauphine.com/hautes-alpes/2016/01/16/avalanche-sur-une-piste-fermee-pas-de-blesses

Yesterday I decided on a ski tour in a valley behind us, that I've done before when conditions are dangerous, though I was a tad skeptical about what we might actually end up skiing on as here it's all wind affected.

So to put this into perspective - the Serre Valley goes down to Briancon, then you drive a couple of kms towards Montgenevre before turning off towards Nevache.

As the crow flies from here to where we climbed to is 6.6km but it looked more like 66km.

The valley had obviously not seen any wind as the trees were so snow laden, from when we turned off the road the temps were minus 4 and where we parked up it was -10.

I'm sure if we driven right up to the end of the valley (Nevache) the snow would have been even more.



More pictures here

Oh and we were blessed with perfect cold powder in the trees.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Looks nice and picturesque.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@davidof, had a local guide I know well asking me about it all after he saw the pics on my FB - must be hard for them at the moment to deliver the goods.
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Davidof...where is Morzine/avoriaz located within your long list above?
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Looks like some light snow showers crossing the northern Alps tomorrow. But pretty dry after that. 06z GFS keeps temperatures in the Alps below average out till Sunday.
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@nozawaonsen, Hi, sorry to be a pain, but do you have a link to the ensembles charts for Scotland (cant find it on the snowfinder link), thinking of maybe trying to get up there for a few days next week, but local forecasts say its warming up a fair bit from this weekend. I know its a week away but just trying to hazard a guess as to whether its worth the 5 hour drive? The period of high pressure you mention will that be true for the Uk too or just the Alps?
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neilkav wrote:
Hi, sorry to be a pain, but do you have a link to the ensembles charts for Scotland?

Aviemore

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@neilkav, for future reference Smile Ensembles and webcams all on one page

http://greghilton.co.uk/snow_forecast/gfsruns.php?select=Cairngorm
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Thanks all, as I thought Scotland looks pretty warm for next week and looks like a little precip (rain?) too. will keep an eye on it
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@neilkav, @kitenski, as I've mentioned a couple of time there are some bugs with the ways that Wetter.de is displaying the ensemble data. I'd suggest you are better off with Meteociel until someone fixes them.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1

06z op brings back colder air particularly in the east next week.

Schladming



Chamonix



Cairngorm

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neilkav wrote:
Thanks all, as I thought Scotland looks pretty warm for next week and looks like a little precip (rain?) too. will keep an eye on it


What @noza says. I was just about to post the Meteociel chart but he beat me to it. Toofy Grin

Conditions were very good at the weekend. In areas where the fences had done their job there was great snow but there could be wide contrast on the same piste. The White Lady was a mix of full and half width. Where it was half width the non-skiable bit was VERY non-skiable.

I was hoping the rain and wind would stay away for another week as it is the first of the kids Scottish Alpine Series races this weekend and it would have been nice for them to race on good snow and in the dry!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Seems like a pretty dry week (or two) coming up for the Alps! At least those warm temps have stayed away like you said they could @nozawaonsen, snowHead
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
ah ha....now I see the WRF short term forecasts, very handy...was def in the wrong place....cue dr john

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs.php?carte=1
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@langball, that link takes to map showing GFS ensembles.

This is (one of several) WRF links.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=16&map=20

Or have a go with this

http://www.meteocenter.eu/WRF-forecast/CE/Central-Europe.html#model
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
yep I just scrolled down the left a bit on your link to get to WRF Europe 0.1, thanks tho'
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Poster: A snowHead
Sounds like nasty Avalanche in Valfrejus at least five French troops killed.

http://www.ledauphine.com/savoie/2016/01/18/une-avalanche-en-secteur-hors-piste-une-quarantaine-de-militaires-s-entrainait-dans-le-secteur
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The French army has trouble with group spacing when it is on exercise, photo from last week

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
RIP to those involved...

Id like to add a thanks to all for info, been glued to the thread for a bit as of to Zell Am See this Thursday....its been an interesting few weeks watching how things work.
Thanks again.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@neilkav, @kitenski, as I've mentioned a couple of time there are some bugs with the ways that Wetter.de is displaying the ensemble data. I'd suggest you are better off with Meteociel until someone fixes them.


Thanks, must have missed that suggestion before, guess I will have to get some SQL search replaces done Smile

Do you happen to know if Meteociel has a set format like Wetter.de as all my links are based on this URL (obviously the long/lat changes)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
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GFS 12Z is re-introducing the option of snow at the weekend snowHead

Looks like there's continuing significant uncertainty regarding if/how/when the current warm Atlantic air mass will or won't kick out the colder block sitting on the continent. Though not sure if this is any more uncertainty that normal 5 days out.
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kitenski wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@neilkav, @kitenski, as I've mentioned a couple of time there are some bugs with the ways that Wetter.de is displaying the ensemble data. I'd suggest you are better off with Meteociel until someone fixes them.


Thanks, must have missed that suggestion before, guess I will have to get some SQL search replaces done Smile

Do you happen to know if Meteociel has a set format like Wetter.de as all my links are based on this URL (obviously the long/lat changes)

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png


It does - http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.0833&lon=3.6667 - although you can put more decimal places in the URL.
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Snow forecast seems have dropped the temps in its forecast.

Be happy if it pans out that way. Mind you, I'm skiing in the Alps for two weeks.

I'll be pretty happy regardless.

Barmen, beer please.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Gaza, thanks, looks like I will/can be more accurate then for the exact long and lat of ski resorts which will be a challenge!
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Piemonster wrote:
Snow forecast seems have dropped the temps in its forecast.

That's now out of date.
When SF updates to GFS 12Z in about 4 hours it will show much warmer temps, at least for the weekend.
It'll probably change again.
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Looks like Corsica will be getting some along with Alpes Maritimes.

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