Hmm. 18z GFS rolling out now and has snow in the northern Alps for Tuesday into Wednesday and Thursday into Friday and is slighlty milder. Tricky week to get a feel for at present...
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Packing the Ultrasun for Dolomites!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looks like we might actually have to Wait and See. And be ready for anything. Meanwhile I am working out what extra layers to wear for the next couple of days. Or maybe go cross country skiing. Much less chilly.
18z also brings some heavy weather to the northern Alps for next Saturday (though slightly milder than average).
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I know this is a Euro focused ski weather thread but for those coming out to North America in the very near future. And by very near, I mean, like this weekend, if not already on a plane in the air...It is going to be really good.
Going to Colorado? No problem, 3 storms lined up. What's that? You're going to be in Telluride, well, like I said, no problem. Or, you're going up North to Steamboat. Don't sweat it. They'll get their fair share of snow too. At least 3 storms forecast to hit Colorado over the weekend into beginning of next week.
Utah? Okay, they are lined up for snow as well. Small storms that are splitting but each one will deliver a few centimeters to 15cm over the weekend into the beginning of next week too.
Tahoe? Yep, they'll be looking at a series of storms too. They already are getting hit. Some places got close to a meter this past week. West Side of the crest ski areas should do well with around 50cm-80cm of snow forecast.
Maybe Jackson Hole is on your bucket list. The lucky folks skiing today are skiing about 30CM-40CM of dry light Teton pow with about 40cm-80cm more possible over the next few days. And then maybe more mid-Week too.
Possibly you are headed to Canada - Whistler forecast calling for up to 80CM over the next 5 days.
However, interior BC ski areas like Fernie, Big White, Kicking Horse, etc. are only going to see about 10CM or so
Or a bit farther South into Washington or Oregon. Same deal. Somewhere in the neighborhood of 80CM's forecast to fall on the slopes. They already received just over 50cm this past few days.
The week after could also see more unsettled weather and potential for more snow in the Western parts of North America.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
18z also brings a lot of rain for the Pyrenees for next week.
When is it going to get cold and stay cold??? Maybe not this year....
Every time it snows in the Pyrenees, there is rain right behind it.......
After all it is free
After all it is free
@Koleoptero, is there? I can't see rain forecast on any of the main weather sites (although I know they're not always the best source!).
@nozawaonsen, thoughts of the outlook for the Pyrennes in the coming days?
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@Koleoptero, I think I see where you mean - looks like it's going milder next Saturday with the FL rising dramatically. That's still a week away, plenty of time for that to change
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Interesting stats coming out of SLF on where we are this season. These run up to 14 January.
- snow in the Lower Valais and in northern Valais was 110 to 170% of seasonal average.
- in the Upper Valais and the western northern Alps around average.
- In the central and eastern northern Alps and in northern Grisons below average (60 to 90%).
- In Ticino, in Central Grisons and in the Engadine less than 50%.
- However, although snow levels, with the exception of French-speaking Switzerland, were still below average there is still more snow across the whole Swiss Alps than at the same time last season (2014/15).
Keeps snowfall crossing the northern Alps, west to east Tuesday to Wednesday. Temperatures will still be below average (though not as cold as Sunday night/Monday morning) so this should fall to low levels. Looks at this stage like a 5-15cm type snowfall, but it goes without saying that that could all change.
Temperatures fo creep slightly above average at the start of next weekend, more so in the west, but it's not much above average and they drop again by the end of the weekend. And there'll be snow too! Some runs have this looking more violent and the snowfall would be heavier, but so would the snowline. 06z gives less snow, but a lower snowline. It's likely that different runs will play with different varaitions on this in the coming days.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, any new for southern alps?
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Yes, anything coming for Alleghe/Arabba?
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The "black gnome" in action yesterday on fairly low angled terrain
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@PaulC1984, not a lot (promise I'd have mentioned if there were). Possible you might get some out of next weekend but there's a lot of uncertainty about that. 06z has a small low pressure system in the Mediterranean in far FI, but too far out to take seriously for now.
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Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, When would you consider GFS models and the like being in FI? I get the feeling anything more than about 7 days? Not necessarily to predict precipitation amount but just broad trends, i.e. what area of the alps will be dry or wet/snow etc.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@stef88, it's not an exact term it just means beyond the point where it is sensible to place much faith in the outcome. In very settled weather (eg high pressure) that can be 8 or 9 days. In unsettled weather that can be 4 or 5 days. Beyond 10 days you can't have confidence in much at all as you even though there may be some indications of something down the line you need to see it being repeated several times before confidence builds.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowfall Figures For the Savoie and Haute Savoie from 1st Jan to Friday 15th midnight
Beaufortin : 265 cm
Bauges : 220 cm
Aravis : 218 cm
Haute-Tarentaise : 216 cm
Mont-Blanc : 208 cm
Chablais : 199 cm
Vanoise : 195 cm
Maurienne : 174 cm
Haute-Maurienne : 140 cm
Snowfall from Tuesday to Friday inclusive (96 hours)
Beaufortin : 75 cm
Aravis : 70 cm
Chablais : 66 cm
Mont-Blanc : 60 cm
Haute-Tarentaise : 56 cm
Bauges : 55 cm
Maurienne : 49 cm
Vanoise : 45 cm
Haute-Maurienne : 27 cm
What's the prediction for Madonna di Campiglio up till Feb 10th?
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Solid 40cms overnight at Nordkette, and over 15cm in Innsbruck city at 11am. Snow came hard and fast - was still 0° and dry when I got home from the pub at 2am. Nice change to wake up too!
As I mentioned yesterday morning there is likely to be a bit of variation over how the models handle next weekend. 00z GFS goes for a more extreme mild, wet and stormy option (the chart below shows heavy snow above 1900-2100 next Friday to Saturday and again a week on Monday, but heavy rain below). But at this point it's just an option (and an outlier).
This is why looking at the ensembles can be helpful as it allows you to gauge likelihood (which forecasts just relying on the op run won't be able to give you a feel for). Still it's worth keeping an eye on how this shapes up, because it could yet be tricky.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Temperatures looking really high in the Pyrennes next weekend, with the FL up at 3000m!!! Looks like I'm going to get rained on when I'm out there next weekend
After all it is free
After all it is free
Doesn't look very rainy in the Pyrenees next weekend? (mild, but not very rainy) Where are you seeing that?
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@nozawaonsen, it was on snow forecast. Admittedly it was only a bit of rain but it was still a shock to the system when I saw it this morning. Not something you expect for January in the mountains! Good to hear that you don't think it'll be very rainy.
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@Handy Turnip, behave. That would be 3mm of rain overnight...
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Haha... you're right of course. I'm hanging my head in shame, @nozawaonsen,
My only excuse is that it was just a shock seeing temps suddenly shoot up on the forecast this morning!
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Handy Turnip, a Shock - thats a poor excuse. If you woke up in shock next to someone ugly after a night out you wouldnt tell jump on the internet and tell everyone about it. I rekon your just trying to scare everyone off so you can have the slopes to yourself
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@PaulC1984, you've seen through my cunning plan!!!!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Handy Turnip, id be more worried if you were booked up for the low lying french alps resorts...http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Morzine/6day/mid
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Very true @stef88, I should feel grateful that I'll be spending all of my time above 2000m. If I was going to Morzine and saw that forecast this morning I'd have probably have fainted! (but then I am feeling a little over dramatic this morning )
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@stef88, except you'd have thought to yourself hang-about-that-op-run-is-a-complete-outlier-over-five-days-out-so-although-it's-possible-I-won't-worry-about-it-too-much.
06z still relatively mild, but neither as high a snowlibe nor as much rain.
If you know Das Boat that particular sequence is a false alarm (it's a training exercise).
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Quote:
stef88
user
Posts: 46
@Handy Turnip, id be more worried if you were booked up for the low lying french alps resorts...http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Morzine/6day/mid
Holy crap, hopefully that will change in the next few days, it will wash away all the snow that has arrived.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
mheadbee wrote:
Quote:
stef88
user
Posts: 46
@Handy Turnip, id be more worried if you were booked up for the low lying french alps resorts...http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Morzine/6day/mid
Holy crap, hopefully that will change in the next few days, it will wash away all the snow that has arrived.
@chrisb, no offence but if you just read a few off the posts above before posting it might help.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, haha sorry
After all it is free
After all it is free
Slightly more seriously mild temperatures in the Alps next weekend have been looking quite likely for a few days now. How mild and whether it comes with precipitation (and if so how heavy) is less clear.
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@nozawaonsen, I have been lurking on here rather excessively for 4 weeks now and really appreciate all your posts (this is my first on this thread). Am trying to read through sensibly and not shudder at the words "Morzine, rain, be worried" all in one sentence in other Snowhead posts given it's 6 days until I'm next out there. Am still trying to recover from being rained on pretty constantly for 3 days in a row when I was over there 10 days ago (my iPhone 6 did not recover - will use a dry bag next time). Appreciate that it's too early to say but in the coming days I'd be grateful for any thoughts you have for what's in store for Morzine next weekend and beyond. In the mean time I have invested in some Goretex ski trousers....
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
Just want to go on record to say, waiting for a mega-huge dump in Via Lattea.
Wake me up when it seems likely. I'll grab my ski's and hop an arrow-plane
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