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The All New 16/17 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Back for brunch. Top of Prato Nevoso 22/24cm, very light winds but poor visibility and some lifts/runs closed due to avalanche risk.

I like this place!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Growing indications that the sustained high pressure which has been bringing very cold temperatures and dry sunny conditions across the Alps will start to break up as we cross into February. Initially a week band of snow looks like crossing on 31 January with slightly elevated temperatures. Out in FI more serious snowfall to lower levels is now being flagged.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen You mean weak or in a week's time?

It does look better in the long term ATM.
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@Jellybeans1000, I meant weak, but was typing on a chairlift.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
Out in FI more serious snowfall to lower levels is now being flagged.

snowHead snowHead I'll take that waffer thin mint now please.....
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@nozawaonsen,
Quote:

I meant weak, but was typing on a chairlift.

I have been told not to stand under chairlifts - now I know why!! wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Quote:

Out in FI more serious snowfall to lower levels is now being flagged.



Smiles everyone, smiles!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
At work (I work in Finance) we track how our sales teams' forecast evolve with time and as we get closer to the month in question - without fail the revenue forecast reduces over time, on average the downgrade level for all teams / the whole group (some up / most down) is circa 18% over a 3 month period. I'd love to do the same for FI.

Don't drop your phone @nozawaonsen, we'll all go paranoid if you stop posting until you get a replacement.
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Getting patchy snow cover on piste in Wengen at the moment. Dodging a few rocks on red runs.
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Wonder if they'll have the snow cannons on in meribel / St Martin / les menuires etc this week. Might be too warm for it?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
In Austria can safely say it is still absolutely freezing when the sun goes down. Conversely south facing slopes were feeling the impact of the sun this afternoon. Pistes still in good condition if hard packed in Zell am See. Lake still very frozen.

As heralded for some time...



... both GFS and ECM show the Atlantic pushing in as we head into February. So as we go into February we'll leave the cold sunny weather behind for a while and see more unsettled weather with snow and given the Atlantic influence at times milder weather.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Looks like a FL lottery into next weekend, should be great above 2000, lower down will be drama.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@langball, too soon to tell.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen okay, enjoy the snow.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Looking at the current forecasts it seems my first two days in Saalbach should be glorious but the dreaded r word is mentioned for Tuesday and maybe Thursday. At least it looks like St Anton is due for a dump just as I arrive next Saturday. Subject to change as always.

I will say that the on the bus ride from Salzburg airport to Saalbach everything looked lovely and snowy. Very pretty scenery snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Continues to look good for a shift of pattern into February. Here's ECM.



Tuesday snow looking a bit stronger this morning, but will fall as rain lower down. Quantities and FL still moving around.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Happened to be looking at snow-forecast this morning and they had "heavy" snow for Serre Che for Friday, Sat and Sun and wanted to show friends who arrived yesterday renting cars from Turin following up on a conversation from last night in that they really should check the snow chains they have etc before having to use them in anger, and all that snow has moved to the following week, such is the volatility of the system(s).

But the law of sod should play it's hand on the Saturday as that is when Paris is on holiday, and the hordes will be travelling down Toofy Grin
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Still very cold overnight. -14C and a hard frost. Beautiful.
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How 06z GFS sees snowfall out till next Sunday.

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I think that's looking good for the BB.....
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Good photo from Mike Pow in Kiroro, Japan, worthy of a wider audience.

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Up to Mike P's usual standard..... snowHead
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
up to a meter of new snow in the southern Massif Central



Here on the col de Finiels today, did someone say snowchains?
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Village of the Damned today #steep

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Random sunday afternoon photo uploads.....lake geneva shore (an hour ago) rapidly melting. Will be washed away by Tuesday.

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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Going out to Bormio for the English National Champs on 9th February. The webcams are showing bits of green and brown amongst the white so some snow would be very welcome. Hopefully it won't dump down from 12th when the kids start racing. I'm trying to figure out what region of the alps Bormio is in. South East? South Central?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Gaza wrote:
Going out to Bormio for the English National Champs on 9th February. The webcams are showing bits of green and brown amongst the white so some snow would be very welcome. Hopefully it won't dump down from 12th when the kids start racing. I'm trying to figure out what region of the alps Bormio is in. South East? South Central?


I'd say it's on the Southern side being in Italy and it's pretty central being in the region of Lombardy.

Bergfex has some snow forecast for the end of the week there...

http://www.bergfex.com/bormio/wetter/berg/
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Morris beginning to get interested in 4 - 6th February and beyond. But how much snow do most places need to make off piste viable. Say three falls, one meter?

Presumably eastern austria and western italy better fixed than most in terms of base (if i've been paying attention properly)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
1st Feb and 3-6 Feb looks good for some snow, especially 5-6 Feb for hopefully some heavy falls.
This is thanks to the current state of the polar vortex.

The sad thing is this isn't forever and the vortex is currently forecast to move away from Europe on the 9th of Feb and the snowfall beyond that looks fairly bleak on CFS and EC Monthly, as well as GFS. Enjoy the freshies this week...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Watching the forecast for the week ahead on BBC Country File last night, surprised they didn't sign off with "and finally for the Alp looks like snow back end of the week".

That chart below is for 60hrs out and will automatically update, so you can monitor how that low is tracking, and it's going to be very windy back in the UK!

As this low tracks across, the Alps some places are going to get dumped on, and then as ever with storms, probably too much snow / wind making for very unstable conditions off piste, but at last finally we look set to get the goods big time (check out La Grave forecast), though who gets what and when will differ hugely over relatively small areas, Snowmagedon anyone at the weekend ?

Unfortunately for those out this week looks like a lot of bad viz / flat light along with snow flurries not making for much of a pleasant experience on the mountain.

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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Getting incredibly stoked looking at that succession of beautiful sawtooth fronts - looks like the south is in for a pasting! Where would be good to fly into on Friday morning to base ourselves for 4 days of stormchasing? Me and a mate quite keen to meet with some local snowheads and make tracks!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Skiwi 55, oooohhh that's an interesting question - think I'd head for La Grave with the current forecast - fly to Lyon, or Grenoble and stay at friends hotel http://hotel-edelweiss.com/ and they could organise a guide for you or even contact Pelle at Skiers Lodge.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Jellybeans1000 wrote:
The sad thing is this isn't forever and the vortex is currently forecast to move away from Europe on the 9th of Feb and the snowfall beyond that looks fairly bleak on CFS and EC Monthly, as well as GFS. Enjoy the freshies this week...


Over on the netweather.tv model forum there's lots of chat about mid Feb bringing snowy conditions (to the UK at least). It's mostly over my head, but interesting reading...here's what I've gathered so far....
SSW downwelling will lead to HLB / PV split. Increased chances for evaporative cooling, negative mountain tourque / angular momentum. MJO phase 7/8 should help and there's a negative tilt to WAA into scandi, but too much cyclogeneis NW.

Shocked

Yeah I've no idea. Back to metrociel and pretty pictures.
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Quote:

Snowmagedon anyone at the weekend ?

Certainly has potential although maybe a bit warm? Heads up for anyone leaving or arriving this weekend. I remember the thread with the live updates for Christmas / New Year changeover weekend a few years ago, the various stories of SHs trying getting to and from resorts were horribly gripping (unlike alot of tyres)!!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
jonathancarty wrote:
Quote:

Snowmagedon anyone at the weekend ?

Certainly has potential although maybe a bit warm? Heads up for anyone leaving or arriving this weekend. I remember the thread with the live updates for Christmas / New Year changeover weekend a few years ago, the various stories of SHs trying getting to and from resorts were horribly gripping (unlike alot of tyres)!!


That was my impression, snow above 1800m, at least in the Isere, there is talk of snowline dropping to 1200m next weekend on the French sites, at least in the far north (PdS).

The worry for the forecast is it means rain lower down which will not be good on a very thin snowpack - at least where they haven't laid down man made snow - which should resist okay.
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@langball, I spend most of my time looking at pretty charts myself... I don't know nearly as much as some of those netweather folks. But I do look at the vortex and MJO. Split vortex just means there is two low pressure maximums. And that can bring lower pressure heights to the mid latitudes. Which is good. But most weather commentators I have read have taken a wait and see approach to the next couple of weeks with SSW and different heights on different models and all other sorts of goodies. Changes to currently modelled weather is likely. Tourque is a bit over me at the moment.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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For those that missed it, or if you fancy reliving it:

http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=115242
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
If the predicted snow arrives on 11 Feb then that might well turn in to another transfer day hell .. but it's still FI at this point. Right?

I'm driving to Sallanches on Friday the 10th (w winter tyres, chains, a bag of cat litter and a shovel ) so hoping for snow on the hills but clear, dry motorways.
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Quote:


If the predicted snow arrives on 11 Feb then that might well turn in to another transfer day hell .. but it's still FI at this point. Right?

I think it's the snow this weekend that might be the problem, also first week of Paris half term
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jonathancarty wrote:

I think it's the snow this weekend that might be the problem, also first week of Paris half term


Snow is never a problem snowHead
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