 Poster: A snowHead
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| mheadbee wrote: |
My mate tells a story of a chair lift stopping in Italy 20 years ago and he say there and saw the lift man ski past. He screamed. The guy stopped. made a call on his walkie talkie and 10 mins later the lift started and he went up. A bloke was waiting for him at the top and sat with him on the way down. It was about 5pm, he takes 50% responsibility for it but they should have checked someone was on the way up. |
After watching that American film, Frozen, I never take a sneaky last lift now.
BTW snowing outside bedroom window at 300 meters altitude now. Snow settling.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Both this morning's GFS and ECM have settled on a switch to above average temperatures next Friday. Next week in general looks very different from this with high pressure meaning more settled, sunny weather. Still some further snow fall on the northern side of the Alps between now and Sunday before drier weather arrives.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@davidof, much obliged, have bookmarked that. Good to have a recent history of the wind direction and intensity.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| Both this morning's GFS and ECM have settled on a switch to above average temperatures next Friday. Next week in general looks very different from this with high pressure meaning more settled, sunny weather. Still some further snow fall on the northern side of the Alps between now and Sunday before drier weather arrives. |
My very amateur interpretation of this morning's ECM output is that it's suggesting a W-NW'ly flow for Friday next week onwards which if (big if...) it happened presumably would mean snow for the northern alps...or have I got that completely wrong??? 
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/ecmpanel1.gif
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@hd, your link suggests high pressure and warm for Friday 22nd. For snow you need a front and/or airmass instability, neither of which are present after this weekend unfortunately.
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@hd, ECM does head in that direction from next weekend (not so much on Friday) as does GFS (and GFS has been toying with something like this around 24/25 Jan in a few runs recently), but too early to get much of a sense of it at this stage.
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@buchanan101, that graph shows a lot of uncertainty from the 18th onwards....but a trend to cooler temps over the next few days and *perhaps* some precip around the 15th/16th???
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| kitenski wrote: |
| @buchanan101, that graph shows a lot of uncertainty from the 18th onwards....but a trend to cooler temps over the next few days and *perhaps* some precip around the 15th/16th??? |
All I was saying is that it IS indeed warming up in a few days' time, but to still around or just below seasonal average (so can't complain) and some runs showing a fair amount of precipitation from 21st onwards. The snow 15th to 17th is showing up on Bergfex. It's already pretty cold looking at webcams (with snow cannon running in the daytime for the first time in ages), but dropping further.
Depths still below average in eastern Tirol, but a lot better than a couple of weeks ago.
Reading somewhere that December is the driest month in Austria - why was everyone so surprised when this turned out to be true ( I guess it was exceptionally dry..)
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| why was everyone so surprised when this turned out to be true ( I guess it was exceptionally dry..) |
Possibly because it was the driest December in Austria since 1865 and the warmest ever recorded (in the mountains +6.6C above seasonal average). Rainfall was 80% below seasonal average for December.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen - am I reading the graph wrong as the white line I thought was average of the runs is still a little below the red line which I am reading as the 30 year average temp? Only a little, and as you say rather uncertain.
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Things looking up a bit now though?
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You know it makes sense.
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| buchanan101 wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen - am I reading the graph wrong as the white line I thought was average of the runs is still a little below the red line which I am reading as the 30 year average temp? Only a little, and as you say rather uncertain. |
I think Noza means the operational run as the thick green line on the Wettercentral GFS charts (the ones with the black background, red as average 30 year, white as the average of the runs). To me, the operational run seems often to do crazy things and the white, average run seems more reliable.
However, I'm sure Noza will be along shortly to clarify.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snoozeboy wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen - am I reading the graph wrong as the white line I thought was average of the runs is still a little below the red line which I am reading as the 30 year average temp? Only a little, and as you say rather uncertain. |
I think Noza means the operational run as the thick green line on the Wettercentral GFS charts (the ones with the black background, red as average 30 year, white as the average of the runs). To me, the operational run seems often to do crazy things and the white, average run seems more reliable.
However, I'm sure Noza will be along shortly to clarify. |
yes, was comparing the white average (best thing as you say) with the red 30 year average. To me being 2 or 3 deg below 30 year average in January is not "warm" but has warmed up from the temp in the next few days. Nozawaonsen is saying above seasonal average and i can't see that, but I am willing to be shown to be wrong. (never doubted the sunny bit. I do like the second plot he put up with the cloud cover top band)
(Of course the white line shows the temp through the days and occasionally it spikes slightly above the red, but the red presumably is average daily temp, then averaged over 30 years)
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Poster: A snowHead
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| buchanan101 wrote: |
| why was everyone so surprised when this turned out to be true ( I guess it was exceptionally dry..) |
Possibly because it was the driest December in Austria since 1865 and the warmest ever recorded (in the mountains +6.6C above seasonal average). Rainfall was 80% below seasonal average for December. |
Ok, true! I stand corrected.
Is it weather or climate...?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@snoozeboy, the mean is exactly what it says it is. It is the average produced by adding all the values and dividing by the number of ensembles. So it gives you an idea of where the middle point of the spread is. That said by definition it tends to flatten things out. Particularly further out and where there is a spread you will find more extreme options cancel each other out. This can actually me misleading rather than reliable. What it does do is give you a quick way to see how far out of kilter the operational is from the ensembles as a group. Still further out regression towards the mean can make it fairly marginal in value.
The 06z op run has next week more settled with cold temperatures recovering towards average before becoming slightly warmer than average next weekend. At the same time more unsettled weather is being suggested from Friday and Saturday which would bring further snowfall.
As @hd, mentioned earlier in FI there is a continuation of a general theme to introduce more northerly or north westerly weather as the jet rides over high pressure in the Atlantic. That would bring colder and snowier weather the following week, but it is too far out at this stage.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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All Scottish areas looking good for the weekend for anyone who's interested, with lots of lifts opening and staying cold with good snow (very good on piste). Saturday potentially looking the best.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, I'll take that for a transfer day. I'll be driving in Switzerland somewhere that day.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@snoozeboy, the mean is exactly what it says it is. It is the average produced by adding all the values and dividing by the number of ensembles. So it gives you an idea of where the middle point of the spread is. That said by definition it tends to flatten things out. Particularly further out and where there is a spread you will find more extreme options cancel each other out. This can actually me misleading rather than reliable. What it does do is give you a quick way to see how far out of kilter the operational is from the ensembles as a group. Still further out regression towards the mean can make it fairly marginal in value.
The 06z op run has next week more settled with cold temperatures recovering towards average before becoming slightly warmer than average next weekend. At the same time more unsettled weather is being suggested from Friday and Saturday which would bring further snowfall.
As @hd, mentioned earlier in FI there is a continuation of a general theme to introduce more northerly or north westerly weather as the jet rides over high pressure in the Atlantic. That would bring colder and snowier weather the following week, but it is too far out at this stage. |
Thanks for the clarification Noza, but the op run is the green run on wetterzentrale, correct? The one in thick green marked as Hauptlauf?
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Correct, green is the hi-res operational run. AIUI the Kontroll-Lauf is pretty much the same input parameters, but on a lower resolution run (i.e. a 1 degree grid rather than the half degree grid). That's how Nowzas predecessor described it anyway.
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@rogg, yep.
@snoozeboy, haupt lauf= main run.
@DaveMcSki, Could still be quite snowy that Saturday if (if) the latest GFS were right, just not as cold.
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@nozawaonsen, the way I read it, Saas Fee looks like it will be nice and sunny (albeit very cold) next week. Is that right? Thanks a lot!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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These ensembles are for Schladming the snow line would be around 1200m at the end of next week according to the op.
The op is a definite outlier in terms of the amount of snow it is suggesting for the end of next week, but there seems to be broad support at least for now for the current cold weather to deepen (Monday night looks like seeing temperatures below -30C at 2000m -and Tuesday morning will feel very cold) before being replaced by a milder spell at the end of next week and then likely a further colder spell around Tuesday or Wednesday the week after.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen, Thanks.
It's become obvious to me that xcweather uses the op run
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/schladming
I had wondered why the numbers would vary so much.
Do they all use the op run or do some use the average?
Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Thu 14-01-16 20:26; edited 1 time in total
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@snowheads68, no one uses the mean (or average) for the reasons I explained above. It's useful as a way of having a quick sense check, to see how much confidence you should have in the operational run.
Almost all products you see on the Internet will be produced using the GFS op run.
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen,
Thanks.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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I've learnt so much from this thread and noza in particular, it's amazing. Thanks is all I can say and much respect.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Quick question from a frequent/grateful reader. What does FI stand for? I've been trying to figure it out but my research has proved unsuccessful. Thanks in advance
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Fantasy island. Basically too far in the future to have much confidence.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@snowjho, Fantasy Island - basically in the future past 7 or so days on the ensembles.
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Fantasy island. Basically too far in the future to have much confidence.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I thought it might be fantasy for the F but it would have taken a while for me to work out the I was for island! Thanks for all replies.
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DUMPING here now in Schruns. Really cold dry snow too.
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All this snow and cold weather is great and I could be making something of nothing but I don't like the look of that rain around the 20th...
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Interesting commentary from Alex Deakin tonight on the BBC Weather for the Week Ahead. He was talking about what may happen at the end of next week. The gist was that the very cold air on the east coast of the USA and the cold air over UK/Scandinavia with a warm plume in the middle driving the jetstream up and over, make the computer models struggle.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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FAQ
