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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@jellylegs, might do.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The Beaufortin has had 190cm of snow since 1st Jan (1800 meter reference) but conditions are probably better in the Haute-Tarentaise with 160cm cumulated snowfall and higher summits as the weather was colder and there was less rain.

Here are the weekend (Friday to Monday 96 hour totals)

Beaufortin 60
Haute-Tarentaise 55 (Espace Killy etc)
Mont-Blanc 40
Haute-Maurienne 40 (80cm @ 2700 m)
Maurienne 37
Chablais 35
Aravis 35
Vanoise 35
Bauges 30
Grandes-Rousses 20
Belledonne 15 (50cm @ 2300m)
Oisans 15 (110cm @ 3000 meters)
Champsaur 16
Pelvoux 16
Thabor 15 (55cm @ 2450m)
Queyras 11
Embrunnais 11
Ubaye 11
Haut-Var 10
Chartreuse 7
Mercantour 5
Vercors 3
Devoluy 1

Note the figures in brackets are from the automatic weather stations as an example of snow depths locally at altitude. The amount of new snow increases rapidly after 2000 meters as most areas saw significant rainfall to this altitude on Friday and Sunday. For example: Belledonne with 15cm of snow at 1800 meters but 55cm of new snow 500 meters higher up.

Thursday thru Sunday is looking like last chance saloon for many low lying ski areas to get skiing going for some time as more settled, warmer weather next week.


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Wed 13-01-16 13:47; edited 3 times in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
@jellylegs, might do.


Fingers crossed for the Atlantic shift Very Happy Keep up the great work! Very Happy
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06z kept below average temperatures until 22 January.

But in far FI (or well beyond reliable) reintroduced colder weather from 26 January.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Just to throw a little point in about the right amount of snow, the people who rented our apartment in december and xmas/new year with sunshine seemed a lot happier than the people there this week with heavy snow and no sunshine.
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Quote:

Chartreuse 7

Mercantour 5

Vercors 3


Looking pretty grim for the Vercors and Chartreuse resorts Crying or Very sad
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Red Dave wrote:
Quote:

Chartreuse 7

Mercantour 5

Vercors 3


Looking pretty grim for the Vercors and Chartreuse resorts Crying or Very sad


The Chartreuse didn't lack precipitation, just that it was too warm. Vercors seems dry this year plus a lot of rain at altitude as well. Col de Porte is open (40cm of pisted snow) for skiing though and the snow cover looked very good yesterday. It has new owners who want to develop the area - they put in a rollerski track in the summer. It is really a case of the Two Savoies picking up the lions share of snow this season. The Chartreuse is normally like the Bauges for snowfall. Look at the Bauges resorts, doing well, but quite high too:

Aillons-Margériaz (1400 m) 60 cm 22 / 24
Aillons-Margériaz (1000 m) 25 cm 0 / 16
Albiez-Montrond (1500 m) 50 cm 15 / 27
Savoie Grand Revard (1450 m) 55 cm 11 / 34

but compare to

Alpe du grand serre (1367 m) 8 cm 1 / 38

Okay that should change by Saturday, but maybe not enough snow at 1000 meters.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Wed 13-01-16 13:42; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
emwmarine, I guess it all depends on the individual. Snow conditions look to definitely be improving for future weeks which is good news (hopefully some of the less fortunate regions will improve now too). There seems to have been a mixed bag since the snow arrived (not that everywhere has been lucky). Some great days with fresh powder but other days with high winds and some rain (or at least wet snow). If you're able or willing to just ski at the better times then there seems to be lots of fun to be had but perhaps not if you want to ski 09:00-16:30 every day of a holiday. I expect the colder weather forecast for the next week will please some people in resort (and everyone at home) but be less appealing to others too.
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Looks like wettercentrale is having problems with GFS FI again:-



No such issues for the same chart with meteociel

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=45.4506&lon=6.9781
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Excuse my ignorance, but which of the ranges below includes Serre Chevalier? Thanks

davidof wrote:
The Beaufortin has had 190cm of snow since 1st Jan (1800 meter reference) but conditions are probably better in the Haute-Tarentaise with 160cm cumulated snowfall and higher summits as the weather was colder and there was less rain.

Here are the weekend (Friday to Monday 96 hour totals)

Beaufortin 60
Haute-Tarentaise 55 (Espace Killy etc)
Mont-Blanc 40
Haute-Maurienne 40 (80cm @ 2700 m)
Maurienne 37
Chablais 35
Aravis 35
Vanoise 35
Bauges 30
Grandes-Rousses 20
Belledonne 15 (50cm @ 2300m)
Oisans 15 (110cm @ 3000 meters)
Champsaur 16
Pelvoux 16
Thabor 15 (55cm @ 2450m)
Queyras 11
Embrunnais 11
Ubaye 11
Haut-Var 10
Chartreuse 7
Mercantour 5
Vercors 3
Devoluy 1

Note the figures in brackets are from the automatic weather stations as an example of snow depths locally at altitude. The amount of new snow increases rapidly after 2000 meters as most areas saw significant rainfall to this altitude on Friday and Sunday. For example: Belledonne with 15cm of snow at 1800 meters but 55cm of new snow 500 meters higher up.

Thursday thru Sunday is looking like last chance saloon for many low lying ski areas to get skiing going for some time as more settled, warmer weather next week.
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davidof wrote:
Impressive powder avalanche in Bessans, the main road was closed for a good reason

http://pistehors.com/impressive-powder-avalanche-at-bessans-24210566.htm



Pretty cool. And rare.

Worth emailing to the Daily Mail, Times or Telegraph and pull in some extra traffic.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Cheers all and thanks for the welcome Smile
Yeah I've been keeping a good look out on this thread plus your blog Weathercam. Great reading and thanks for the dedication.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@davidof, which weather stations are you using above. I check the lab.nivolog ones:

La Rosta, Chablais 1660m 78cm (frozen the last 14 hours, so no doubt higher now)
Les Contamines 1820m 128cm (live)
Comborciere 2300m 137cm (live)
Chamrousse 2000m 76cm (live)
Col de Porte 1300m 49cm (live)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
joshuaharrison wrote:
Excuse my ignorance, but which of the ranges below includes Serre Chevalier? Thanks


Serre Che is on the eastern edge of the Massif des Écrins, in which Mont Pelvoux is one of the highest summits, so Pelvoux from that list.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
davidof wrote:
The Beaufortin has had 190cm of snow since 1st Jan (1800 meter reference) but conditions are probably better in the Haute-Tarentaise with 160cm cumulated snowfall and higher summits as the weather was colder and there was less rain.


Maybe, although it's cold fresh snow from top to bottom (I assume, as it is here in La Giettaz, which is next door, where the levels are 60-140cm so slightly less than Les Saisies - and, no, there are no snow cannons here distorting numbers) whilst levels don't seem dramatically greater at significantly higher places than they are in the Espace Diamant?

e.g. Espace Diamant = 80/60cm at 1150/1250m, 107cm at 1600m and 160cm at 1940m

Les Arcs = 108cm at 1600m (the same) 126cm at 2000m (less) and 175cm at 3200m (15cm more)

Tignes = 110cm at 2000m(less) and 185cm at 3300m (25cm more).

Or perhaps - probably - you're talking about quality of base etc. which I confess I don't really understand. In any case I guess conditions vary locally within the same region but at least in the Savoie/Haute Savoie it's much better than it was!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@joshuaharrison, @luigi, we're actually on the border of both Pelvoux and Thabor

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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Great - thank you

Weathercam wrote:
@joshuaharrison, @luigi, we're actually on the border of both Pelvoux and Thabor

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Gaza, the wetter.de charts have been buggy for some time. Better off with meteociel.fr until they get fixed.
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For a while now the GFS op run has been extending the cold spell by a day, pretty much every day.

This evening's GFS 12z op brings that to an end.

And extends below average temperatures by two rather than one day and would keep it below average to 24 January.
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nozawaonsen, you naughty tease!
"This evening's GFS 12z brings that to an end"
and i thought that was the end of the lovely cold weather
Then read your last line . . . phew! snowHead
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Below average temps but pretty dry @nozawaonsen, ?

Thanks
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
For a while now the GFS op run has been extending the cold spell by a day, pretty much every day.

This evening's GFS 12z op brings that to an end.

And extends below average temperatures by two rather than one day and would keep it below average to 24 January.


Yay!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Decent temps and snowfall predicted for the Grandvalira - Andorra.

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Massive snow here yesterday evening and overnight. Drove up in a blizzard with blowing snow reducing vis to zero at times. We had to dig our way out this morning. a good few hours of sunshine was welcome this afternoon. Very few skiers about but one idiot managed to swap his hire skis for a pair I'd lent to a friend. We took the hired skis back. Wasted a good hour rolling eyes Messages have been left. They were an excellent pair of skis so fingers crossed they turn up.
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@nozawaonsen, At least it will stay cold until we get to Madonna di Campiglio next Saturday so we have a chance to see snow on the mountain from last weekend!
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Quote:

one idiot managed to swap his hire skis for a pair I'd lent to a friend


Sounds like theft to me... sorry to say Sad
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Minor thread diversion. Exactly same happened to my brother, someone took his skis at the top. We had to take a gondola down to hire some more. Took the gondola back up and they had reappeared. Skied back down with recently hired skis. Obviously hire place didn't give a sh*t and charged him for a full day. Expensive for one run.

Anyway, back to weather.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
langball wrote:
@davidof, which weather stations are you using above. I check the lab.nivolog ones:

La Rosta, Chablais 1660m 78cm (frozen the last 14 hours, so no doubt higher now)
Les Contamines 1820m 128cm (live)
Comborciere 2300m 137cm (live)
Chamrousse 2000m 76cm (live)
Col de Porte 1300m 49cm (live)


I don't know how those automatic meet station work, especially trying to measure snow when it is very windy. I follow the one at Comborciere (in Les Arcs) and this week I've been putting less and less faith in it. The snowfall that it records has not been anywhere near representative of what I've been skiing. Anyone know how these things measure fresh snowfall?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@pam w, Sad
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
"Very few skiers about but one idiot managed to swap his hire skis for a pair I'd lent to a friend. We took the hired skis back. Wasted a good hour Messages have been left."

How did you/they know someone took the wrong skis rather than being stolen? How did you know the hire skis were left by the same person? I'm assuming you must have done otherwise you've (your friend) taken someone else's hire skis for no reason?
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@nozawaonsen, it does look as though thr second half of January will be drier in the alps?
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It looks bone dry after tomorrow for France. So that's it then until February (at this stage at least)?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
langball wrote:
@davidof, which weather stations are you using above. I check the lab.nivolog ones:

La Rosta, Chablais 1660m 78cm (frozen the last 14 hours, so no doubt higher now)
Les Contamines 1820m 128cm (live)
Comborciere 2300m 137cm (live)
Chamrousse 2000m 76cm (live)
Col de Porte 1300m 49cm (live)


The Meteo France ones, I was giving the fresh snow from Friday to Monday not the total snow.

Interestingly the Nivolog one at the Col de Porte is sitting right next to the Meteo France one. Nivolog says 48cm, Meteo France 28cm. Quite a difference. Yesterday there was probably about 8cm of fresh snow and around 30cm of completely frozen base (couldn't dig through it). I guessed around 40cm total but it could have been a bit less but not more. I will have to take a look under the Nivolog station to see how much snow there really is.
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rob@rar wrote:
langball wrote:
@davidof, which weather stations are you using above. I check the lab.nivolog ones:

La Rosta, Chablais 1660m 78cm (frozen the last 14 hours, so no doubt higher now)
Les Contamines 1820m 128cm (live)
Comborciere 2300m 137cm (live)
Chamrousse 2000m 76cm (live)
Col de Porte 1300m 49cm (live)


I don't know how those automatic meet station work, especially trying to measure snow when it is very windy. I follow the one at Comborciere (in Les Arcs) and this week I've been putting less and less faith in it. The snowfall that it records has not been anywhere near representative of what I've been skiing. Anyone know how these things measure fresh snowfall?


They have an ultrasonic measure. They, well the Meteo France ones, are supposed to be in areas that are representative of the area. The Meteo France snowfall measures are taken from the pisteurs, EDF etc made on the ground as well as the automatic weather stations. They are fed into a model (Crocus) which then calculates snowfall at 1800 meters.

If you look at the Aiguilles Rouges station it is in a very windy area. The Ecrins one is in the valley of the Glacier Noire and less exposed to wind. The Meije one is also in a very wind spot, it is currently reading zero. This also helps estimate snow transport. Flowcapt have a system with measures on both sides of a ridgeline so you can see the amount of snow transport across a ridge.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Thu 14-01-16 0:14; edited 1 time in total
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@zzz, a period under high pressure seems likely (yay! Sunshine!). Too soon to say it will last till February, although it might!
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@davidof, thanks, very interesting. The Aiguille Rouge one has been off line for quite a few days, which I guess isn't entirely surprising given the weather this week.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@zzz, a period under high pressure seems likely (yay! Sunshine!). Too soon to say it will last till February, although it might!


What will this possible high pressure bring in terms of temperature ?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Nice sunset tonight



spooky to get back to the ski station carpark and find no-one there and all the staff had gone home. I guess a last minute check of the pistes is too much bother - gives gallic shrug.
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rob@rar wrote:
@davidof, thanks, very interesting. The Aiguille Rouge one has been off line for quite a few days, which I guess isn't entirely surprising given the weather this week.


Here is possibly the nearest flowcapt one to you. They are a Suisse design used by the French road authorities to decide when to close roads due to the avalanche risk. This is on the Val d'Isere road

http://www.isaw.ch/index.php?nav=data_meteo_station_graph&lang=en&code=FCHE1

If you look at the snow measure there are two current figures: 3 meters and 1 meter. The difference is due to snow transport as the sensors are in two different locations on a col. We can probably split the difference and say around 2 meters depth at that point. The snow movement corresponds to the period of high winds. If you look at the sensor the wind went from the S to the N (hence the drop in temperatures). This is a good indication of some massive windslab and indeed Wayne Watson saw a 2 meter deep slide today in Val d'Isere.
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Quote:

davidof
snowHead
Posts: 9434

Nice sunset tonight



spooky to get back to the ski station carpark and find no-one there and all the staff had gone home. I guess a last minute check of the pistes is too much bother - gives gallic shrug.



Surprised to hear that, Normally they are bang on when it comes to safety etc.

My mate tells a story of a chair lift stopping in Italy 20 years ago and he say there and saw the lift man ski past. He screamed. The guy stopped. made a call on his walkie talkie and 10 mins later the lift started and he went up. A bloke was waiting for him at the top and sat with him on the way down. It was about 5pm, he takes 50% responsibility for it but they should have checked someone was on the way up.
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