The Scottish areas are looking quite good for the next few days with continued colder temperatures and lighter winds forecast (and even some sun!).
Tomorrow at Glenshee looks very good, with quite a few lifts scheduled to open and decent snow.
Cairngorm seems to have got quite a bit of new snow today, the weather is looking clearest on Thursday (at the moment).
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@bobmcstuff, good to know thank you - won't gavevto go to SnowFactor this week then
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
buchanan101 wrote:
AthersT wrote:
@Whitegold, from my experience, and speaking to locals it doesn't normally freeze until early - mid February. After all it is only at 750m and requires a good few days of very low temps all day and night.
Doesn't always freeze fully over either...
Anyone trying to predict for certain when the Zellersee will freeze over is probably skating on thin ice...OK, I'll get my coat!
North of Grenoble it was snowing at 1000 meters (3C) and the FL was at 1300 meters. A fair bit of snow on the roads from 1100 meters with a good few cm at 1350 meters on the pass and snow showers could be fairly heavy. There is about 5cm of fresh snow.
@BobinCH, wow, that looks like 150cm overnight? Or are those fella's a bit on the short side
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@langball, I think there'll have been some drifting there!
After all it is free
After all it is free
rob@rar wrote:
Heavy snow for most of the day so far at Les Arcs. Was this in the forecast? I thought there was going to be a bit of a lull, before more snow tomorrow?
I think tomorrow looked more likely to see a lull.
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Noza! I started to think you'd gone on holiday
From my very amateur hour look over some of the runs the indications seem to be a stark warming in the week commencing 21, would you be able to explain those long range FI forecasts please?
@BobinCH, wow, that looks like 150cm overnight? Or are those fella's a bit on the short side
As Noza mentions, it is drifting against buildings. Looks like Verbier got 30-60cm snowfall in the past 24 hours.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
nozawaonsen wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
Heavy snow for most of the day so far at Les Arcs. Was this in the forecast? I thought there was going to be a bit of a lull, before more snow tomorrow?
I think tomorrow looked more likely to see a lull.
Thanks, must have been getting ahead of myself. Moderate to heavy snow continues here, and it feels like it's been snowing since I arrived in resort last Wednesday. The snowplough needs to make an unprecedented 4th daily visit to clear the access road to our garage as I think it's not passable at the moment.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
It's interesting to read some of the comments about the reliability of forecasts (and some of the moans from the usual suspects... ).
For what it's worth I'd argue that the models have handled the build up remarkably well.
The very first hints were visible in GFS FI before the end of the year, though clearly not something to take seriously. From 02 to 04 January the signal started repeating in FI and by 04 January was developing cross model consensus. And from then on it became a drum beat...
By last weekend it was evident this week would see cold temperatures, heavy snow, high wind, disruption and raised avalanche risk across the northern Alps and the west in particular.
But it hasn't all been clear.
- Initially at times the signal for cold was stronger than the signal for heavy snow, although that subsequently became clear too.
- Early on it was also not clear that it would be so focussed on the northern Alps, but again that became clearer.
- The GFS op run was at times quite an outlier in terms of snowfall. That would have driven some slightly high expectations.
- Overall it seems to have pushed slightly further east into Austria and as a result has had less impact at the far end of the French Alps (such as Serre Chevalier).
Clearly in volatile scenarios like this it is nigh on impossible to predict exact snowfall (as discussed repeatedly), but it can also mean that a small shift can have a big impact (as Weathercam pointed out a few pages back) in terms of where the snow falls.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
30 December, so nearly two weeks ago.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@rob@rar, picking at FI straws 10 January currently looks to have potential for another substantial snowfall across the Alps, but it really is too far out to tell at this stage.
Further out still a number of runs recently have hinted at a ridge building in Western Europe which could force the jet over the top. That would favour the eastern end of the Alps. But again way too far out.
This is from 10 days ago on 02 January.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Bit of a glance ahead... The pattern looks broadly the same for the second week of January. That will keep things unsettled in the northern Alps, and it looks like being milder than average from Thursday for at least a week. Snow at altitude looks most likely at the western end of the northern Alps, but keep a watch on the freezing levels. Out in far FI a switch to cooler temperatures mid month?
Courchevel
From 03 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS FI again hinting at cold spell mid month, but a long way off.
And again later.
nozawaonsen wrote:
18z GFS is also another run which would introduce a colder spell from mid month.
On the 4th.
nozawaonsen wrote:
00z GFS has both the operational and control going cold (and drier) for at least a brief spell mid month. Although it's just at the edge of ECM's range, it hints at similar this morning as well.
And later.
nozawaonsen wrote:
Brrrr.
ECM has some cold weather arriving around mid month. And GFS does too. So the likelihood of this is increasing. Though at this stage it is unclear how long it will last.
On 05 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
GFS and ECM both continue to suggest cooler weather around mid month this morning. Whether it is just a day or two or something longer is still unclear.
And later...
nozawaonsen wrote:
Looks like it will feel very different around mid month with temperatures a lot colder than they are now.
06 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
Pattern shift is building support. There's still quite a bit of spread, but the operational and control both going for a sustained period of cold weather from around 12 January.
07 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
Tricky few days coming up. A lot of stormy weather over the next five or six days. The snowline will be quite high this afternoon (looks like between 1500-2000m at times in the western Alps). Similarly on Saturday and Monday, but much lower, below 1000m on Monday evening dropping to 500m on Tuesday...
Next week looks likely to be the coldest of the season so far. How long the cold spell lasts remains unclear. More snow at the end of the week may well be on the cards too.
09 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
Temperatures remaining mild till Monday then falling through the day. Heavy snow falling Monday and then to low levels on Tuesday in the western Alps. Less so in the southern Alps.
Strong winds and heavy snow Monday and Tuesday in the west could cause disruption and lift closures, so keep an eye on that.
10 January
nozawaonsen wrote:
Here's some indications from WRF of how the snow will fall over the next few days. WRF is a good short term model, but obviously the detail is more unrelaible as we press on.
There's a lot to come at altitude over the next 24 hours, but temperatures don't start to cool substantially until tomorrow afternoon so it will be rain lower down. Beyond that though there should be a lot of snow to low levels. The western Alps and the Arlberg look like doing particulalry well (though the south will also see some fresh). It will of course mean frequently low visibility, winds looks strong and avalanche risk will rise.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Tue 12-01-16 20:50; edited 1 time in total
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@nozawaonsen, good summary.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Noza,
What website do you pull your squigglies from? Just want to self service rather than being the annoying guy that asks for what FI has in store for the Arlberg starting the 24th. Thanks for your posts!
I'm likely insane leaving snowy El Nino fueled California for St. Anton, but it is usually good for some pow and fun
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@Minion1980, both GFS and ECM stay cold till 20 January and both bring temperatures a bit above average around 21 January. After that they diverge. ECM goes colder than average, GFS milder.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Ok thanks a lot Nozawaonsen that is much appreciated!
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@comish, no offence, but I personally find people talking of squigglies and wigglies sound like they are at primary school, but each to their own I guess and as I said no offence intended!
You can get the GFS ensembles from Meteociel.fr here.
Tarentaise, Valais and Arlberg all look set to continue to profit.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
nozawaonsen wrote:
@comish, no offence, but I personally find people talking of squigglies and wigglies sound like they are at primary school, but each to their own I guess and as I said no offence intended!
You can get the GFS ensembles from Meteociel.fr here.
High avalanche danger will be encountered in some regions
"Observed weather on Tuesday, 12.1.2016
The weather was mostly very cloudy with frequent snowfall. During Monday night the snowfall level dropped to low altitudes. It was sunny only in the far south.
Fresh snow
The following amounts of snow fell in the period from Monday afternoon until Tuesday afternoon:
- Northern Alpine ridge from Chablais to the Aletsch region, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, extreme west of Valais and central Valais, Goms, Val Bedretto: 30 bis 50 cm, but as much as 80 cm in Montana and from Trient to the Great St Bernhard Pass
- Remaining areas of the western and central parts of the northern flank of the Alps, and of the main Alpine ridge in Valais: 20 to 30 cm
- Eastern part of the northern flank of the Alps, rest of northern Ticino, northern Grisons, Lower Engadine: 10 to 20 cm
- Central Grisons, Upper Engadine, Grisons southern valleys, central Ticino and Sotto Ceneri: less than 10 cm
In the last three days, 1 to 1.5 metres of snow has fallen in the regions of the extreme west of Valais and northern Valais that have been exposed to heavier precipitation.
...
Weather forecast through Wednesday, 13.1.2016
In the north there will be variable to dense cloud cover and snow showers. Bright spells are possible in the inneralpine regions of Grisons. In the afternoon it will become brighter in the west. It will be quite sunny in the south.
Fresh snow
Snow will fall even at low altitudes. In the period to Wednesday evening, the following quantities of fresh snow are expected:
- Northern Alpine ridge, Lower Valais, Goms and from Prättigau to Samnaun: 20 to 40 cm
- Elsewhere: 10 to 20 cm over a wide area, but less in central Grisons and Engadine
- Southern flank of the Alps: mostly dry
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m: -9 °C
Wind
Strong to storm force from the west to northwest
Outlook through Friday, 15.1.2016
After a mostly clear Wednesday night, cloud will build up quickly from the west on Thursday morning and snowfall will commence. In the south the weather will remain dry. On Friday it will snow on the northern flank of the Alps in particular. It will be sunny in the south.
For snow sport participants venturing off piste the situation will remain critical over a wide area."
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, as Bernard Purdie might say 'whatcha see is whatcha get'
Being new to this I've found that 'knowing' what the weather is likely to do helps way beyond enjoying the snow. More efficient.
One other thing I had never noticed before is the incredible short term rise in temps as warm front comes in ahead of a big cold one. Can certainly lead to a lot of freaking out when waiting for half a metre of snow-forecast.
After all it is free
After all it is free
What impressed me today was digging at around 1350 meters (it rained here to 2100 meters over the weekend) is just how solid the 30 cm of base snow/ice is. Practically impossible to cut through with a sharp metal shovel. There is about 5-8cm of well bonded snow on top of this. One thing is sure, you won't be punching down to any hidden shark fins skiing on this, what you see, is what you ski.
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@davidof, high 5 to that
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Impressive powder avalanche in Bessans, the main road was closed for a good reason
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
davidof wrote:
Impressive ...
I'll say! Saw something similar in Zinal several years ago, although that one was triggered by lobbing explosives out of a helicopter on a Level 5 day. Most impressive (if you are some distance from it).
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Met office update isn't too bad. A return to milder air later next week but only average rather than above average temps.
Probably not great news for the Pennines but could be OK for Scotland and perhaps the Lake District where there is already good snow cover on high ground and more to come this week.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Massive uncertainty on the ensembles from the 19th onwards at least temperature wise - could be some more wild weather to come!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
GFS 18z keeps cold air over Europe till 21 January (it's been nudging this back for several days now). But it is trending towards returning high pressure across Europe next week for what looks like being a calmer week than this week.
This first picture shows the pressure anomaly overnight on GFS. Low pressure (blue) across Europe.
This second picture shows how GFS would see things by the end of next week (if it played out that way and there is still uncertainty about that). High pressure (red) having replaced the low pressure.
Interestingly in far FI that high pressure then pulls back into the Atlantic allowing the jet to come crashing over the top.
If (big if at this range) that happened it would bring back cold and snowy weather. But maybe something to keep an eye on to see if is picked up again as a theme. Still a fair amount of uncertainty about next week at this stage let alone the week after.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Thanks Noza, Fingers crossed the Jet actually does that, although we are probably jinxing it.
I would love to have a repeat of our experience in January 2012 when we got snowed in to St. Anton and had waist deep Pow for a couple of days. Getting out on a "special" train at 4:30am and transferring 3 times on the way to Zurich, all with 1 year old twins (double wide strollers don't fit through train doors) and a 3 year old was a higher degree of difficulty, but the skiing was amazing! Our Chalet mates didn't think so with all the closures, but the untracked pow was all-time!
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Still a lot of uncertainty about the end of next week.
GFS goes milder from 21 January (though the op was very much at the warmer end of the pack).
ECM keeps it cold throughout it's run.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
was snowing in Geneva when I headed to the tram at 07:30 but not settling much
.........I think tomorrow looked more likely to see a lull......
Might be a "lull" in precipitation today, but this is looking out of my window, and that's not cloud up on the ridge but the wind shredding the snow off, though as I type this seems to have eased off, but was pretty spectacular about half an hour ago with the whole ridge being stirred up by strong winds, and that's only at 2,400m!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looking at the meteograms. If GFS is on the right track for the back end of next week you would still expect some very low temperatures overnight in clear skies. -30C at around 2000m would be chilly.
@Weathercam, yes a lull in precipitation in the west is what I meant as it was referring to a comment about snowfall.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, I know
This is from our local bulletin - and note "these next few hours"............
The snowpack is unstable , especially above 2000/2200 m. Snowfalls are daily since last Thursday and the cumulative thickness of recent snow is about 80 cm in height. The wind blew hard in recent days, southwest and west / northwest , voluminous accumulations are in place. These next few hours, northwest wind will still carry snow, fragile new wind slabs will form , sometimes far ridges.
After all it is free
After all it is free
Weathercam wrote:
Snowfalls are daily since last Thursday and the cumulative thickness of recent snow is about 80 cm in height. The wind blew hard in recent days, southwest and west / northwest , voluminous accumulations are in place.
Doesn't sound like you've done too bad out of recent snowfall.
With conditions clearing up a bit people are going to find some of those big (Avalanche prone) powder fields mighty tempting...
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This is looking up to one of the top chairs.
And now zoomed in - and you can see how the wind has affected the ridges either side of the chair, one side is loaded the other side scoured.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen wrote:
Interestingly in far FI that high pressure then pulls back into the Atlantic allowing the jet to come crashing over the top.
Or it will sit bang on top of Germany for 4 weeks and give us another snowless month!
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
).
