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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like snow set in around Schladming, temps now starting to drop.
http://www.hauser-kaibling.at/en/news/weather-webcams/webcams
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Snow at 1274 metres in Wengen. Austrian team have just arrived for the races at the weekend.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
nozawaonsen wrote:
Dance break.


Nice!! Cool
Dance breaks are good for the soul!!
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Pretty pants in terms of snow fall here in Serre today even up the hill and was very windy with top lifts closed.

Snow level was at 1,700 on the way up then did look like weather was closing in but alas not the case.

Though was not expecting viz as good as this today, though was for all of ten or so minutes !



More in Serre thread.
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@telford_mike, so unlikely that the Inferno will finish anywhere below Winteregg then?

Phew.
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under a new name wrote:
@telford_mike, so unlikely that the Inferno will finish anywhere below Winteregg then?

Phew.


Yup, the run down to Lauterbrunnen is good if you need to walk the dog, but not for much else.
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Weathercam, I don't know how you have the gall to post a photo like that during office time, while people are trying to concentrate on work. Especially when you also complain about the snow conditions. Smile
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@AthersT, @clarky999,
The piste you see is blue 23. This is one of 4 avalanches which were not 'planned'. It came at just after 11am yesterday morning. As usual piste rescue were on scene within minutes.
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It was only -1c, at 5pm today, at 1400m in Lech, near St Anton, west Austria, so temperatures still not very cold in many parts of the Alps:

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Fair to say that today under delivered hugely in the Northern French Alps compared to all the predictions? When I left yesterday it really looked like it was gonna snow snow much..
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Fair to say that today over delivered for the Eastern Austrian Alps and still dumping!
This is roughly at 1650m

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Yep, under-delivery it was. I am now well above the snowline but it makes little difference as there's been little or no precipitation for much of the day. we've had a few centimetres...possibly.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Alex A wrote:
Fair to say that today under delivered hugely in the Northern French Alps compared to all the predictions? When I left yesterday it really looked like it was gonna snow snow much..


Hard to say really. Today isn't over. Don't know which forecast you are referring to? Don't know where you are seeing reports of snow from? Some places will almost certainly have got more, some less (Serre Chevalier sounds like it may have missed out so far) being the nature of stormy weather. Measuring any snowfall in the high winds will also be fun...
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@pam w, sounds like some places got more, some less.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
It snowed/precipated for most of the day in Sainte Foy, plus heavy (precipation) last night. Hard to say how much fell in total. About 10cm of "powder on the piste" this morning, depends what time they groomed it! Starting to fill in again with colder snow during the day.

Closed up high due to winds and avalanche risk, but we had a good day playing in the slightly-mushy trees.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Been snowing hard in Les Arcs for about three hours, but not much fell before that. If it continues it should be very nice tomorrow or the day after. Avalanche risk will be very high, made worse at mid-latitudes by the graupel which fell today, so low angle or piste for me for a couple of days.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Still snowing well in val d'Isere - probably had 20cm at resort level
Hard to tell up the mountain as a LOT of wind transport ..... But lovely snow everywhere
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Looking at next week the 12z GFS intensifies the low pressure system coming in early next week which if it happened would be heavy snow at altitude.

You can see it here for Lech



But you can also see the op run gets almost zero support for that idea.

ECM meanwhile keeps it cold next week till Thursday and builds high pressure.
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Quantities being dialled down again by Meteo Chamonix. 65 - 85 cms including Thursday's fall.
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Still sounds pretty nice to me. Hooray!
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Yes, that would be excellent but the apparent flakiness of the forecasts and the local variations could mean some gaps in the coverage. Probably worrying about nothing.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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pam w wrote:
Quantities being dialled down again by Meteo Chamonix. 65 - 85 cms including Thursday's fall.
Perhaps a good thing. Some of the figures which we being generated by GFS would have been very disruptive, especially when coupled with high wind and an already unstable snowpack. Three quarters of a metre of fresh over a few days is pretty good, by any yardstick Happy
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Well there have been several pages so far this season devoted to the difficulty of effectively predicting snowfall and that's before you factor in such a violent system as the one currently passing through. However, here is a further article on the complexity that is worth a read

https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/perspective/9071/predicting-snows-matter-most

From a quick glance at various threads some parts of the northern French Alps have seen heavy snow already, some have not and some parts of Austria have seen more snow that was expected. So it may not be that the snow hasn't fallen as much as it hasn't fallen where people expected (or wanted depending on where you are).

Of course it's pretty hard to know what is driving people's expectations. Many will have been looking at forecasts based on the GFS operational run. Up until yesterday the op run was still a considerable outlier even quite close in. It was showing some extreme accumulations which when switched into a simple figure would suggest some very high accumulations. Other ensembles were still showing snowfall, but not as much. In circumstances like that (particulalry when it will be accompanied by violent weather which increases the complexity) it pays to be cautious.

And of course this week's snowfall is far from over.

This is how WRF sees it over the next five days (but of course don't assume that the detail will be precise, that's not possible).



And for much of the French Alps "65 - 85 cms including Thursday's fall" was what WRF was suggesting yesterday.
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@nozawaonsen, I was in Morzine and it had upwards of 80cm today on many models (meteo Blue, SF, J2SKI, YR.no, Meteo France)... But in the end, very little fell even at altitude. I'm going to Val Disere next and that had snow for sure, but again no where near the numbers that were suggested. But it may do a 1m tomorrow ! That chart above has that area in the 100-150cm bracket. I was hoping for the game changer so we are left with a 150cm - 250cm base.. But trust me.. I'm over the moon at what's happened in the last week apart from the rain that washed so much away last week for the people in PDS.. so much fell... 80-90cm and then it really damaged. Shame for the locals Sad
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Haven't been up the mountain today but we've barely had a dusting in resort.............
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@pam w, why did you buy in such a low resort on the Western fringe of Alps? All I have learnt from this thread is that les Saises is all doom and gloom. It only rains. Snow is always undelivered and melts overnight. Huge swathes of Western Alps now have above average snow despite horrific start to season with apparent exception of les Saisies and your glass remains nearly empty as it always seems to be. In fairness a few weeks ago if anyone had known 2016 would have started like this they would have whooped for joy. We now have full on ski season. Why all the pessimism? It's just wild weather
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
My expectations were largely based on Meteo Chamonix which is fairly consistently in the ballpark for this area. I never take much notice of the random numbers on snow forecast - I always look at GFS to get a feel for the wider picture. And read this thread, of course.

I am usually pretty phlegmatic about weather but having two friends arriving tomorrow, who are completely new to this area I naturally want to be the perfect hostess and deliver good conditions! I would have no problem with half a meter or so of snow, so let's hope forecasts for the coming days are more reliable.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@pam w, if you can deliver that for me I'd be delighted Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Alex A, I think 80cm for today was wildy optimistic (pessimistic) and if I'm honest I'd be surprised if all those sites had 80cm for one day. 80cm in a day would shut the resort for at least a day if not more. That said if that is what you were hoping for I can see you would have been disappointed. But perhaps be thankful for small mercies! Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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For what it's worth I see over in The view from............Val d'Isere and the Espace Killy thread... http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=82612&start=3440

Steve Angus wrote:
SPARE A THOUGHT FOR THE PISTEURS

Well folks it was MIGHTY snowy again today.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
So this has been making its way around today. Supposedly in SkiWelt Wilder Keiser and can't confirm if it is actually from the weekend. But a bit depressing to see.
http://youtube.com/v/WrBj5FH0CYU
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Grim video, however here is a more recent shot of Wilder Kaiser from this afternoon.



I like mine better


Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Mon 11-01-16 22:39; edited 1 time in total
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Steve also said that they'd had 120cms of snow since the beginning of the year. Which puts some of the dafter figures which have been thrown around into perspective.
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@nozawaonsen, let's hope that Austria will be in line for some decent snowfall as the western alps has received recently.
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pam w wrote:
@nozawaonsen, Steve also said that they'd had 120cms of snow since the beginning of the year. Which puts some of the dafter figures which have been thrown around into perspective.


120 is not to be sneezed at and other high altitude resorts like La Rosière, les Arcs, Courchevel 1850 (about 1750 on the front neige mind) will have had a similar amount of snow. Val Thorens a bit more. Unfortunately there is a lot of the alps, and home runs, below those kind of altitudes. 21 out of the 23 French Alpine ranges were blitzed with rain over the weekend and it was even raining over 2000 meters in the Haute-Tarentaise at times according to Rob and others.



For example, the 7 laux was in a much worse state Monday lunchtime compared to a week ago. Now you could argue that they should have built higher access points and it is something the head of the Hautes-Alpes CBI is arguing for today for his department - he wants to build a high altitude super resort in the Ecrins national park.
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davidof wrote:
........... he wants to build a high altitude super resort in the Ecrins national park.......


And pigs and elephants have been preparing for take off Toofy Grin
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extremerob wrote:
So this has been making its way around today. Supposedly in SkiWelt Wilder Keiser and can't confirm if it is actually from the weekend. But a bit depressing to see.
http://youtube.com/v/WrBj5FH0CYU


That video is from before Christmas (and yes I'm aware of the date The Local uploaded it wink).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
extremerob wrote:
So this has been making its way around today. Supposedly in SkiWelt Wilder Keiser and can't confirm if it is actually from the weekend. But a bit depressing to see.
http://youtube.com/v/WrBj5FH0CYU



As above, it's a few weeks old, but still looks cool. Good bar story.

Rockhopping while the whirlybird flies in some freshies snowHead
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I've just searched you tube for skiwelt videos and sorted by date uploaded, this was the top result.


http://youtube.com/v/a2Z7lbUIhT4

Also this official video

http://youtube.com/v/J_cvydWRcHg

Just to reassure anyone who's heading to ski welt. Very Happy
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Sometimes you need to be in the right place at the right time for the most intense conditions ......


http://youtube.com/v/NgIeT22QrSY
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