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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
At least El Nino's working for someone...


http://youtube.com/v/LWIXp-y1IP8

But then again...


http://youtube.com/v/cUliUWMrMZA
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Driving to Milan from Cervinia yesterday it was snowing down to about 1100m.
Forecast for there is for even colder temperatures this week.

I say this as the Alps are big and the overall situation should be judged a little wider than just the view from one (or two) poster(s) bedroom windows.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Feels quite foehn-like. Still very wet and mild at 1550m. Local chairlift not running. Usual reason is wind up top. Gutters running noisily but no rain, it seems, just heavy cloud.
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Update. It's raining heavily. I've no thermometer but it feels so mild, despite the wind, that it's probably raining right up to the top at just over 2000m. disappointing, though will make it easier to go and pick up some skis I left from servicing yesterday. Every cloud....
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Rain, +3C here, higher lifts closed - wind.
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Temperature has dropped slightly here (Les Arcs) at 1800m, so everything coming out of the sky is now falling as snow. Varying from nothing, to light, to occasionally heavy snow. Reckon the snowline is just below us. Local weather station reporting 8cm of fresh snow has been added this morning at 2300m.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@pam w, do you or others get a headache with the Foehn like wind?

Last Saturday felt as if I had a hangover head all day - and the first time I encountered that was in Wengen many moons ago, and still do get the occasional head for no drink related reason?

And yes I do know when it is a hangover and when it shouldn't be one rolling eyes

Seem to recall the Foehn can be used in mitigating circumstances in court!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:


Well except the snowline moved between 1400 and 2200m give or take! Wink



not so much
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Not been aware of any foehn-related headaches. Foehn is always a pain but i do like seeing ski tracks and footprints standing up above the surrounding snow afterwards.
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A wet base is good for snowmaking and it due to get colder.
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In CH from the slf figures looks like Les Diablerets, Villars , Gstaad, Leukerbad corridor getting hammered (50cm+ Up high) over the last 12 hours. PDS and Zermatt doing well too. Less in Verbier and everything shut above Ruinettes (2200m). Need snow line to drop for after school sledgemaggedon in Les Pleiades snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
davidof wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:


Well except the snowline moved between 1400 and 2200m give or take! Wink



not so much


Went up and down. Went above 2000m (more than I thought) went below 2000m. Stopped briefly at times. Depended where you were a bit. Varied. Kind of stormy. Not especially pleasant. And very wet lower down.

Anyway 06z GFS moving away from the idea of a high pressure dominated week from 18 January.

Just one option at this stage but if this played out that low pressure system near the Mediterranean would bring a lot of snow for the southern Alps. If.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?ech=222&code=0&mode=0#
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Snowfall totals by region, French Northern Alps at 1800 meters (Meteo France figures) through to Saturday 9th January. The Bauges is still in 1st place but some southern range like the Tabor are moving up the league

Bauges 150
Beaufortin 145
Mont-Blanc 123
Chablais 108
Aravis 123
Haute-Tarentaise 120
Vanoise 125
Maurienne 98
Thabor 86
Haute-Maurienne 78
Pelvoux 77
Champsaur 70
Chartreuse 68
Grandes-Rousses 66
Oisans 61
Belledonne 59
Queyras 48
Embrunnais 47
Vercors 36
Devoluy 31
Haut-Var 26
Mercantour 10
snow conditions
 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
And since Wednesday through to Saturday night


Bauges 50
Beaufortin 50
Haute-Tarentaise 50 (EK, Ste Foy, La Plagne, les Arcs)
Vanoise 50 (Three Valleys)
Mont-Blanc 45 (Chamonix)
Maurienne 40 (les Sybelles)
Haute-Maurienne 40 (Val Cenis...)
Chablais 35
Aravis 35 (la Clusaz...)
Thabor 35
Grandes-Rousses 30 (l'Alpe d'Huez)
Champsaur 28
Pelvoux 27
Oisans 25 (les Deux Alpes)
Belledonne 20 (Chamrousse)
Queyras 11
Embrunnais 11
Chartreuse 9
Vercors 9
Haut-Var 1
Devoluy 0
Mercantour 0
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, Reference CFS - Thanks.

Checked today, CFS looked better.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Jam yesterday and jam tomorrow. Meanwhile trees that were white yesterday were green as far as I could see this morning around 1900m.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
Jam yesterday and jam tomorrow. Meanwhile trees that were white yesterday were green as far as I could see this morning around 1900m.


snow's no use on the trees pam, now they can squeeze the water out and move it onto the pistes wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Ischgl yesterday. Lots of other big slides too. Be careful...

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Lech, west Austria, at 1400m, looking nice and snowy today:

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@clarky999, Is that Piz Val Gronda leading down to Gampenalp? Very close to the piste that!
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Verbier Les Ruinettes (2200) where the base is now over 1m and above seasonal average as of this morning



% of seasonal average across CH - looks pretty good in the West


The last 24hrs measured at 9.30 this morning


And update at 12:45 of last 24 hrs from the auto measure stations for bas-valais


Most of it fell this morning and it's still going strong


Pretty impressive snow info available on slf
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@AthersT, can't remember now, but most ridge lines looked similar. They were closing pistes for 15 mins or so while bombing all day. They choose to leave the home run 'til last, so a huge crowd built up waiting for it to reopen around 4pm, which made it even more chaotic than usual. Honestly, the amount of people who couldn't ski but still thought it was acceptable to straight-line at speed with no room to turn due to the crowds was unbelievable. Couple of families with small kids about too - I was terrified for them.
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
clarky999 wrote:
..... They were closing pistes for 15 mins or so while bombing all day. ......Honestly, the amount of people who couldn't ski but still thought it was acceptable to straight-line at speed with no room to turn due to the crowds was unbelievable. Couple of families with small kids about too - I was terrified for them.

If they were setting Bombs off... then I'd have straight-lined it off the mountain too snowHead
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Any experts in GFS stuff online today ?! Yesterday it seemed we were in for a relatively dry but cold week next week but from what I see today those models have switched to something potentially similar to this week, albeit a bit colder. I guess this could be great news for all resorts if I understand this correctly?!
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@bruisedskier, not too sure where you are looking? But as I said I'm not too sure how useful it is other than for giving a very broad picture. Don't pay the CFS "Daily" charts any heed.
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I'm certainly no expert but from looking at the GFS 06Z run for Chamonix area it looks very uncertain beyond Sunday and seem like there is a huge spread in the runs temperature-wise, but on average above this week's predicted cold temperatures. That's very much FI though - we will need to see the runs converging to have any confidence one way or the other.

EDIT: It seems nozawaonsen is around so you will no doubt get a better and much more informed response wink
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@stef88, too soon to tell.

Look at this chart for the Arlberg.



It shows a huge spread from 17 January. Within that you can see a general rise in temperatures to around seasonal average around 19 January. The op then goes colder around 20 Jan bringing snow in the 21, but is otherwise pretty dry and would bring at least a period of settled although not mild weather. ECM also looked settled. I don't see a repeat of this week next at this stage.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
My understanding, weak as it is, is that the reliability of any forecast more than a day or so ahead is poor at the moment - even more than usual. The evolution of this week is changing, let alone next week. there seems, judging from SH reports even from resorts in the northern French alps to be significant local variation too.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@pam w, pretty confident this week looks set to see temperatures fall as we go through the day and into the evening with high winds. Snowfall to low levels this evening and through to Wednesday, brief pause before further snow fall. Not sure what you think is evolving beyond the usual shifts you would expect.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Thanks all Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Looks like a load of snow in Tignes!

https://www.facebook.com/snoworks/videos/1105237239501210/
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Meteo Cham have scaled back expected snowfall today. temperatures seem to be dropping slower than was being forecast yesterday and (thankfully for those of us below the snow line) precipitation has been light. But that's just my corner. Forecasts elsewhere might have remained much the same. Currently I can see to the top of the treeline and they're all green.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Gaza wrote:
Looks like a load of snow in Tignes!

https://www.facebook.com/snoworks/videos/1105237239501210/


For Tignes, my distant 'test' on the amount of snow is Val Claret's webcam that shows half-pipe - if it is all white - that means snow is abundant Smile If rocks etc protruding, then it is still 'not enough'. looking good now Smile
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pam w wrote:
Meteo Cham have scaled back expected snowfall today. temperatures seem to be dropping slower than was being forecast yesterday and (thankfully for those of us below the snow line) precipitation has been light. But that's just my corner. Forecasts elsewhere might have remained much the same. Currently I can see to the top of the treeline and they're all green.


snowline is down to about 1200 in Chamonix..
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snow line down as low as ponte di legno 1200m
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
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Pam W I think one or two may have overestimated how quickly the temperatures would fall and the snow come in.

"There's a lot to come at altitude over the next 24 hours, but temperatures don't start to cool substantially until tomorrow afternoon so it will be rain lower down. Beyond that though there should be a lot of snow to low levels. The western Alps and the Arlberg look like doing particulalry well (though the south will also see some fresh). It will of course mean frequently low visibility, winds looks strong and avalanche risk will rise.

Sunday

1500z bulding in the west..."


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Mon 11-01-16 16:44; edited 1 time in total
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Dance break.


http://youtube.com/v/3ND4P-gy1PM


Last edited by After all it is free Go on u know u want to! on Mon 11-01-16 16:40; edited 1 time in total
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just starting to snow at 1000 now, its coming down Very Happy
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The temperature in Les Arcs nows seems to be dropping quickly, and the snow is slamming down hard.
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