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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Whitegold wrote:


Almost 50% of the lifts in Val d' Isere were closed today. Around 40% closed in St Anton. About 20% closed in Verbier..


And how many of those were closed due to new snow/high winds and new snow vs no snow??
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It would have to be mostly wind, I would have thought.... apart from the Solaise lift which has mechanicals.
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We are in EK right now. Had a great days skiing on Bellevarde where all the lifts were running. Visibility could have been better but the snow was great! We chose not to venture out of the Val D'Isere valley in case high winds closed lifts, as it turned out we did not see that happen.
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Quote:

Whitegold wrote:


Almost 50% of the lifts in Val d' Isere were closed today. Around 40% closed in St Anton. About 20% closed in Verbier..



...and 90% closed in Via Lattea - is that the worst affected of the superski areas? I think so - Dolomiti seems to be managing with artificial far better than VL
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This is WRF's assessment of precipitation over the next 5 days. It's striking how the same areas have been getting most of the snowfall (or over the last few days rain lower donw) since New Year and the pattern is set to continue over the coming week with the French Alps, Valais and Arlberg looking like they will see the most.



A further positive is this is the first time in a while that there hasn't been a nasty red splash indicating exceptional rain over Argus and Aberdeenshire.
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VL certainly sounds bad and reports from the Pyrenees are dire too. The snow is not being very equitably shared out, it seems.
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sergeantslow wrote:
Quote:

Whitegold wrote:


Almost 50% of the lifts in Val d' Isere were closed today. Around 40% closed in St Anton. About 20% closed in Verbier..



...and 90% closed in Via Lattea - is that the worst affected of the superski areas? I think so - Dolomiti seems to be managing with artificial far better than VL


What has become clear from this 'snow crisis' is the Dolomites have invested in snow making equipment, Via Lattea has not. I was booked there for Christmas - New Years, cancelled it all. Booked now for early March, and I *hope* we have enough to ski on. Going to reserve a car anyway so we can pop through the tunnel to other side of the mountains that do have snow... hopefully, by late March it will be sorted out.


Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 10-01-16 21:58; edited 1 time in total
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Quote:

And how many of those were closed due to new snow/high winds and new snow vs no snow??


All of them. Absolutely everywhere in Val d'Isere has plenty of snow to open.
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stevomcd wrote:
Quote:

And how many of those were closed due to new snow/high winds and new snow vs no snow??


All of them. Absolutely everywhere in Val d'Isere has plenty of snow to open.


Exactly, same here in Les Arcs. Highest lifts shut for safety reasons, everywhere else open and in reasonable condition including some (heavy) powder on piste and side-country fun.

But that does't make for sensationalist headlines.

C'est la vie.
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Yup, Sainte Foy, La Rosiere 100% open (other than Avalanche risk / wind) too.
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stevomcd wrote:
Quote:

And how many of those were closed due to new snow/high winds and new snow vs no snow??


All of them. Absolutely everywhere in Val d'Isere has plenty of snow to open.


Solaise is closed due to mechanical issues...
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@rob@rar, its always the same. We moan when theres not enough, we moan when theres too much, we moan when its snowing in the day creating flat light.

Ive only ever had one perfect holiday - Winter Park 2001 where we had 4-6 inches of fresh snow EVERY night, then blue skies every day, utter bliss Happy
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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@PaulC1984, first time I skied in Japan we had about 30-40cm of fresh every other day for eight days. I was staying in a B&B lodge and on the days when it hadn't dropped 30cm of fresh snow overnight the guy running the lodge would offer his apologies for the conditions! I said I would live with my disappointment Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
100% open except for x% not open for wind/avalance and 100% open except for x% not open for poorer cover on lower slopes. One thing I've not mentioned much on SH because it's "chalet pimping" and I cba with all of that because I wouldn't participate in the apres zone if that's what it was all about… I'm sure people rebook from a lower resort to a higher one in poor snow years, but we've certainly benefited from short-term rebookings from higher resorts in windier/avalanche prone years when people can ski here and not where they've booked. Not interested in derailing noza's thread as I, like many others, hugely appreciate his efforts on the weather outlook, but "the weather" includes closures due to wind and avalanches.
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@rob@rar, sounds like I need to get my rear to Japan!! Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
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@miranda, sure, but there is a massive difference between wind/avalanche closures and no-snow closures. If the top lifts are closed due to heavy snow / avalanche risk, you can be fairly sure they will re-open to a powder bonanza within a day or two and that the lower (open) runs will be top-notch condition. Hence people tend to look on it pretty positively. Less so when runs are shut due to no snow and there's none on the horizon!

I'm impressed at people's forecasting skills if they're genuinely re-booking their holiday due to wind!!!!
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PaulC1984 wrote:
@rob@rar, sounds like I need to get my rear to Japan!! Happy
Hokkaido can be utterly amazing (but not guaranteed). Trying to work out when I can go back. Next season, or the season after...
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@rob@rar, whats the cost like for two weeks. I've never really looked as only been getting into offpiste the last few years.

Sorry about the thread hijack all
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@PaulC1984, I thought liftpass, accommodation and food similar to Euro prices (although you can go cheaper if you want), flights more expensive, obviously (£650 with BA/JAL IIRC). Better to take this to the Japan thread in snow reports where you'll get local advice from the likes of MikePow.
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@rob@rar, awesome thankyou Happy
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rob@rar wrote:
PaulC1984 wrote:
@rob@rar, sounds like I need to get my rear to Japan!! Happy
Hokkaido can be utterly amazing (but not guaranteed). Trying to work out when I can go back. Next season, or the season after...


My 50th in 2017......kinda thinking it would be good timing to return!
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@kitenski, Laughing
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
langball wrote:
next weekend is shaping up to be the best of the season so far.....looks like the alps will get 1-2m this week, and then the sun will come out Cool


That is music to me ears. I am off to Saas Fee on the 16th
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stevomcd wrote:


I'm impressed at people's forecasting skills if they're genuinely re-booking their holiday due to wind!!!!


No, they generally are already in a resort where the lifts are closed and predicted to be so by "the experts" for a few days due to wind/avalanche risk and looking at resorts that are genuinely 100% open.


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Sun 10-01-16 23:39; edited 1 time in total
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kitenski wrote:
rob@rar wrote:
PaulC1984 wrote:
@rob@rar, sounds like I need to get my rear to Japan!! Happy
Hokkaido can be utterly amazing (but not guaranteed). Trying to work out when I can go back. Next season, or the season after...


My 50th in 2017......kinda thinking it would be good timing to return!


My main snowboarding partner in crime is 50 this year, I'm 50 in 2018. we're thinking of splitting the difference and doing a 50th trip to Japan next season. Laughing Must be something in the air.
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In terms of snowfall (and as mentioned a couple of pages back, p72) the snowfall in the northern Alps this week looks like pausing briefly Wednesday into Thursday (fading from West to East), before picking up again Thursday into Friday.

There's then a further band which looks like arriving in the early hours of Saturday and into Sunday falling to low levels. Quite a way out still, but might be worth keeping in mind and keeping an eye on if you are travelling that day (too early to say whether it will be heavy enough to cause any disruption, just noting it at this point).

After that this evening's GFS has things clearing up in the first half of the following week, but still remaining cold. But clearly that's FI.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
In fact 18z goes on in far FI to develop a very cold easterly. So if that happened the week after next would be very cold, but dry. Not necessarily a bad thing after all the snow on its way. But obviously way too far out to take seriously.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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Both GFS and ECM are toying with bringing high pressure across Europe in FI though take different routes to get there.

GFS takes things slightly milder (up to seasonal average) on 20 Jan, but only as a low pressure system pushes down pulling more cold and snow with it. It would be cold and dry thereafter.

So the look of next week is not set, but it doesn't look mild at present.

Nearer in today is the changeover day with temperatures across the Alps falling by evening.

These give an interesting view of the general picture (though be aware they are yet another way of displaying the GFS op).

It's the third frame in each I'm focussing on. It's been a while since we've seen a sustained period of below average temperatures coming up in Europe. In terms of precipitation note that it remains stronger in the northern Alps and also that the UK will become drier than it has been for a while!

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

http://www.wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.html

And with all these changes coming... RIP


http://youtube.com/v/pl3vxEudif8
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
rob@rar wrote:
@PaulC1984, I thought liftpass, accommodation and food similar to Euro prices (although you can go cheaper if you want), flights more expensive, obviously (£650 with BA/JAL IIRC). Better to take this to the Japan thread in snow reports where you'll get local advice from the likes of MikePow.



Save £200 by flying from Milan. They put you on a plane to Heathrow and then put you on the plane to Japan that would have cost £200 more if you'd just gone from Heathrow.
don't you just love airlines..........
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cameronphillips2000 wrote:
Save £200 by flying from Milan. They put you on a plane to Heathrow and then put you on the plane to Japan that would have cost £200 more if you'd just gone from Heathrow.
I've done that a couple of times to other destinations (once from Dublin, once from Rome), but I wouldn't do it to Sapporo. It's already a long enough journey without adding two extra flights.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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Politely calling time on this.

rob@rar wrote:
Better to take this to the Japan thread in snow reports where you'll get local advice from the likes of MikePow.
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@nozawaonsen, apologies, quite right Embarassed
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Foehn home, storm force "chinook" winds overnight blew in to the Alps and are now blowing out again. 17C in Grenoble at midnight.

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pam w wrote:
VL certainly sounds bad and reports from the Pyrenees are dire too. The snow is not being very equitably shared out, it seems.


See chart I posted a few pages back and as you, or someone said, if you have 50cm of snow and rain, you've got wet snow, if you've got 25 cm and rain, you've got a problem.


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Mon 11-01-16 9:30; edited 1 time in total
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where do you enjoy the snow noza?
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Föhn should be short lived.

http://www.meteocentrale.ch/en/weather/foehn-and-bise/foehn.html
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So what's happening where this morning? There's an awful lot of snowheads hoping it's snowing, not raining in the Doloimites this morning. It's hard to tell where the snowline is from webcams as there's so much low cloud and fog. The trees don't ssem white so I fear it could be raining.
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davidof wrote:
.....It looks like we are set for 4 days of pretty torrential rain to 2000 meters in the French Alps, maybe higher in the south..........


Spot on !!

Getting feckin depressing, that said snow line is only a 150/200m above us and trying to snow here now at 1,400 with temps +1.4

We're going up the hill later to take a look.
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snowing like mad in Tonale at 1800m but looks very much like rain down the valley in Ponte di Legno 1200m
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Weathercam wrote:
davidof wrote:
.....It looks like we are set for 4 days of pretty torrential rain to 2000 meters in the French Alps, maybe higher in the south..........


Spot on !!

Getting feckin depressing, that said snow line is only a 150/200m above us and trying to snow here now at 1,400 with temps +1.4

We're going up the hill later to take a look.


Well except the snowline moved between 1400 and 2200m give or take! Wink

Anyway hopefully should be a lot cooler by the end of the day.
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