The last few GFS runs look crazy. Like a child has gone wild with an Etch a Sketch for the FI ensembles
Not for the Dolomites. Looks like another 7 days of mostly dry weather. One half decent snowfall in 3 entire months. Absolutely unbelievable, even for a usually dry area like the Dolomites.
You're right it has been an extended period of dry weather for most of the Italian Alps and that looks to continue for the next week or so. But there is a signal for some precipitation right at the end of the month. The latest GFS hits the Dolomites pretty good on the 29th. I don't like posting weather charts out that far because verification is so low, but the trough that ends up digging south to the Mediterranean is clearly visible over the Atlantic at 168hrs. The upstream trough over the eastern USA would amplify it from this point. This is a slight change from weeks and weeks of fast zonal flow into the northern UK. It's not a perfect setup for the southern Alps, but it's a glimmer of hope. The CMC and ECM also have a trough for the same time period (albeit weaker and less amplified).
Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Sun 23-02-20 10:24; edited 1 time in total
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
This is an example of how it could progress favorably. This polar jet is definitely less zonal than in recent times.
(this image auto updates and is initially valid from the Feb. 22 18z GFS run)
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Sun 23-02-20 14:47; edited 3 times in total
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
And here is a nice looking surface chart. The imagine auto updates and is no longer valid.
Last edited by Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see? on Sun 23-02-20 10:29; edited 1 time in total
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Start the drive home on the 28th
After all it is free
After all it is free
The 06z GFS cut back on snow a little bit next week, especially in the south. But at this stage that's just noise and well within the ensemble envelope.
There's also still the short-term snow threat late Sun. - early Mon, especially in eastern Austria near the tri-province border of Salzburg, Styria, and Upper Austria. This looks like mostly an elevated (>1500m) snow threat, except maybe further east where the FL will be lower. Right now this wet snow or rain won't help much. But guidance - CMC, ECM, ICON, and GFS - is kind of straddling the edge between a nothing event and ~15cm. It could easily shift either way. I would hedge towards a warmer solution right now if forced to guess.
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@altaski8, I have had a word with him upstairs and the 12z will put the heavy snow back.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Smokin Joe wrote:
@altaski8, I have had a word with him upstairs and the 12z will put the heavy snow back.
Hallelujah!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Still looks like an unsettled period setting on from 26 February for the northern side of the Alps. As others have mentioned the ensembles are still rolling back and forth so picking out detail is going to take time. There are cold spells around 26/27 Feb and 01/02 March, but as stormy weather crosses over you may well see some rain to snow set ups. For what’s its worth (as ever do not read too much into the figures). Here‘s how 12z GFS saw snowfall to +186.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Longterm forecast for March suggests a sunny and dry month ahead.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Whitegold, great means I can ski ice in the morning ,drink Rose in the sun and go for a bike ride in the afternoon . We need more of you on here
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Rob Mackley,
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Rob Mackley wrote:
@Whitegold, great means I can ski ice in the morning ,drink Rose in the sun and go for a bike ride in the afternoon . We need more of you on here
No we don't
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
luigi wrote:
psyxologos wrote:
luigi wrote:
Skied from La Thuile over to La Rosiere today. At midday, the sun came out and it was showing 11C at 1900m on a chairlift thermometer. The soft corn snow was enjoyable, but it did feel a bit too springlike. Don't tell Whitegold that global boiling is back on!!
I am travelling to La Thuile on Sunday. I really hope the temperatures will be nowhere as high as you say they were yesterday. Hopefully a snowfall this week, perhaps? Here is to hoping.
There was report of 15cm there this week. Also, probably the best snow conditions I encountered over the 5 days I was in Aosta Valley were at La Thuile, the combination of catching enough out of the westerlies as they funnel through the Little St Bernard Pass and the NE aspect of many of the runs conserves it well.
La Rosiere gets a lot of sun from its southerly aspect, I expect it will be suffering from Spring conditions this weekend, but catch it as it softens and before it gets too sticky and it's nice. Looks hopeful for some colder weather and snow by middle of next week maybe??
Here is to hoping Luigi. I just do not fancy skiing with a T shirt. I would very much prefer a really cold holiday. But I won't be getting it, it seems.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Charliegolf wrote:
Rob Mackley wrote:
@Whitegold, great means I can ski ice in the morning ,drink Rose in the sun and go for a bike ride in the afternoon . We need more of you on here
No we don't
Every village need a ... Whitegold ...
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snowmageddon March
If these cold temps play out that would equal snow down to the lake and carnage on Wednesday!
@BobinCH, hope so! Not the traffic carnage but the low temperatures and snow!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Yup classic NW stau for Wednesday. Cold, dry snow especially in the northwest Alps where orographic enhancement is strongest. On the latest charts that's again followed by a ridge and warmer air for the weekend. We're in this weird cycle of cold mid-week - warm weekend. But even if it does play out that way, there's a couple of really good days in there.
The latest GFS and CMC flip the script and start hitting the southern Alps around the 29th. High precipitation signal days 8-10. That's a pattern change if it's real. But it's way out there and uncertainty is high.
Meanwhile 06z keeps the interest going at the turn of the month. This low pressure system Should catch the attention of the dirty south.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ECM agrees, a mythical "Genoa low" . A bit far away to be sure though
After all it is free
After all it is free
The latest GFS brings some snow to the Dolomites on Wednesday. That's a pretty potent mid-level low that it's spinning up. If that digs further west or deepens sooner a larger area of the Alps could be impacted midweek. The 00z ECM has it too.
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Everybody gets into the action on the 10-day GFS snow QPF chart. Even the distant, small, low lying ranges.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
nozawaonsen wrote:
.......Warm and sunny! Time to style it up......
Ok sensor is in direct sunlight, but......
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Weathercam, have you styled up though?
Cheeky Martini in the sun with the dogs?
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, I'm actually in my lycra having been on the turbo* in the garage in the sunshine, think that counts
*off-ski with bad knee
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
12z GFS sticking to it’s guns...
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
munich_irish wrote:
ECM agrees, a mythical "Genoa low" . A bit far away to be sure though
La Grave?
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This blog is always worth a look if you are interested in snowpack conditions and the general background in Tirol.
My final forecast for the long term in Europe this season. The final days of the month and first 10 days in March look more hopeful for snowfall prospects according to models and the tropical drivers. But this will subside in mid-March.
Thanks to everyone who has supported the blogs over the season
Hopefully the next few weeks are fruitful for snowfall.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
With colder temperatures on the way so too comes the potential for a generally snowier picture across Europe. As ever the figures will shift about, but this is how 06z GFS sees it to the end of next weekend.
@Jellybeans1000, not sure that it is correct to say that the northern alps are having an average to above average snow season. For higher elevations that is probably a reasonable statement however lower down that seems incorrect. Given the number of mild ie rain episodes in recent weeks that must have had an effect on total snow depths.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Worth keeping an eye on wind speeds in the coming week.
The northern side of the Alps could see some pretty stormy weather especially in the west.
At higher altitudes the combination of this with potential for relatively high snowfall could cause some disruption, but if it does play it smooth...
Raining and 8deg at 2000m in Mayrhofen, Ahorn and Penken this morning. Rain cleared this afternoon but temps up Penken were 10deg. Very very mild, snow was getting pretty slushy.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
deleted
Last edited by Then you can post your own questions or snow reports... on Sun 23-02-20 18:11; edited 2 times in total
After all it is free
After all it is free
The GFS continues to show an active stormy period for the foreseeable future. But the last few runs have slowly been moving away from the deep, amplified trough at the end of the month. That decreases snow chances for southern areas a little bit. But there are so many polar shortwaves in the flow and a relatively complex setup to resolve, so I expect additional changes in the modeling in coming days. The big trough could easily reappear on the charts. As is there's still a lot of precipitation modeled for most of the Alps and even lesser ranges.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
I don't believe the amounts forecast but it makes nice viewing all the same!!
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