Oh dear. He's trolling across multiple threads now
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Piemonster puts it in a nice way .Millom I'll just say what most people are thinking just do one and leave Noz alone his posts are most welcome,and you are just a pain in the back bottom kisses
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@nozawaonsen, Nice to see Dolomites getting some snow today. The weather is so confusing, I guess we can't be sure of anything further out than a few days. Thanks for all the updates, you're a star.
@Nozawaonsen, just to echo the sentiment of almost everyone on here - your daily, often hourly, updates and guidance on here are very much appreciated!
Keep up the good work and ignore the detractors!
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@nozawaonsen, I was wondering if you could look in to the weather coming up in Livigno.
I understand that realistically it's difficult to see past 3 days but a general trend would be good. From what's been said this coming week will be cold, will this cold continue to the week after which is the MYaSH bash. Thanks
Or could you point me to a good forecast site, as I've read (a few pages back) that some sites update more regularly than others.
@Nozawaonsen, just to echo the sentiment of almost everyone on here - your daily, often hourly, updates and guidance on here are very much appreciated!
Keep up the good work and ignore the detractors!
Hear hear!
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
davidof wrote:
Millom wrote:
"weather (rain/wind) and/or snow conditions (grass/ice/rocks) have been disappointing"
The start to the last two seasons has been nothing short of bad. Bad for people who like skiing, bad for everyone in the business. Stack of skis left unsold at the end of the season, people laid off or never employed at the start of the season. In France with unemployment around 5.5 million that's not good. Ski resorts nursing losses for the second year running. Hotels, shops, restaurants with unsold stock.
I echo the comments above. I am a member of the management board of a ski resort that currently is virtually closed. The commercials are up in arms and blaming the management, the staff, everyone - however the truth is there is very little that you can do when mother nature deals you a poor hand.
In addition we have had a house full of guests for the last two weeks, one group has been many times before and know how fantastic the conditions usually are, the other group it is their first time and of course they are disappointed. However we are lucky with the choice of 3 resorts which has meant that they have still had some good skiing - and managing expectations certainly helps, it is no good lying, the honest truth is the only way.
We have just invested 8.5 million euros in a new lift, and as yet it has not carried a single fee paying customer, and already people are saying why spend the money. However during the last 5 years we have had tons of snow and a long and busy season - this year is just an extreme anomaly.
Unfortunately the cold weather still seems reluctant to set in - but the season is still just getting going, so there is hope yet.
After all it is free
After all it is free
@nozawaonsen, I am one of many who appreciate all your efforts and your evenhandedness. This is my favourite snowHeads thread by far, winter or summer. As someone who taught meteorology and climatology (there is a huge difference BTW) for years both as a teacher in the classroom and also an instructor on the hill, I envy your ability to explain such complex situations so clearly and succinctly. Please continue forever, I'm learning how to explain "weather" to knobHeads who think they know it all and also to genuinely interested people but, how shall I put it, who are somewhat intellectually challenged maybe.
In case it is of interest to any genuine skiers coming out to enjoy the central Austrian mountains, it is pissing down here in Altenmarkt, but it is also bloody cold. That equates even to the simplest of minds to snow "oop top". Sadly I have to return to work on Monday, so I hope all of those out here to enjoy the post Chrimble/Sylvester pistes, lots of empty slopes and masses of new snow. I'll be back in 2 weeks and may even manage a couple of slides downhill next weekend as well.
PS Does that make me have a vested interest in promoting false snow reports, etc for personal gain?
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Pouring down with rain in Innsbruck now, but was snowing in the car park at the bottom of Axamer Lizum (~1500m) when I finished skiing. Offpiste just isn't possible there atm, and only half of the pistes are open, but the ones that are were actually pretty nice!
Was snowing hard over the Arlberg pass on Friday night too, with lighter snow down to St Anton town.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
First year I was in Les Arcs, there was so much snow I couldn't ski it without getting stuck. First year in Italy in 2 weeks and I may be skiing machine made snow, but I'm going to love being there. C'est la vie and up yours El Ninio.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sat 9-01-16 23:13; edited 1 time in total
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
chopkins13 wrote:
@Nozawaonsen, just to echo the sentiment of almost everyone on here - your daily, often hourly, updates and guidance on here are very much appreciated!
Keep up the good work and ignore the detractors!
I have nothing to really contribute to this thread, but as a regular lurker....
++1 on the hear, hear
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@pam w,
Only ever heard it on the BBC from Valerie Singleton and Penelopy Keith. In fairness Pam, I may be over egging the point but there is a grain of truth in there. I do however stand firm about my views on the preferability of twopence sized flakes.
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@Samerberg Sue, very well said. I love this thread, and I like to think I'm learning a bit as well.
I'm very grateful to Noza for all the updates, they're absolutely addictive!
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@HoneyBunny, I echo this as others have done. Though it is still very little, I understand more about weather than I ever have done before. Thanks noza!
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Why are some joining snowhead forum when they think it is krap?
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Glad so many of you are finding the thread interesting or entertaining.
@Millom, you raise a good point about whether to give the op run more weight if it is an outlier or the ensembles if the majority of them contradict the operational run. There will be others who have better view than I do on this, but I'd tend to agree that if the operational is not being supported by the ensemble pack then I would have lower confidence in that outcome. Crucially however it would be a signal to watch what happened over the coming runs. Does the operational run stick to its guns and draw support towards it? Or does it gradually shift towards the majority of the ensembles? Or does it simply switch from one outcome to another. It is often more useful to watch what happens over a series of runs rather than try to draw conclusions from a single snapshot. But it is a good question.
18z GFS stays solid gold cold out to Wednesday 20 January from this Monday. It's interesting how the GFS op run has gradually extended the cold further over the last 24 hours. (@pigeondave, no guarantee, but at present both ECM and GFS see that week at least starting cold in the Alps).
Here's SLF's take on the stormy weather on its way.
Skies were overcast and there was snowfall in western and northern regions. The snowfall level was between 2200m in western regions and 1600 m in eastern regions, and dropped lower only very gradually during the course of the day.
Fresh snow
Between Friday evening and Saturday evening above approximately 2200m, the following amounts of new fallen snow were registered:
- furthermost western part of Lower Valais, northern Valais: 20 to 35 cm
- remaining parts of Lower Valais, northern flank of the Alps: 10 to 20 cm
- other regions: 5 to 10 cm over widespread areas
...
Weather forecast through Sunday, 10.1.2016
The precipitation is expected to come to an end during the night and skies clear up temporarily. During the day, skies will be heavily overcast for the most part, accompanied by snow showers. The snowfall level will be between 1000 and 1500 m.
Fresh snow
By Sunday evening above approximately 1000 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated:
- furthermost western part of Lower Valais, northern Lower Valais, Vaud and Fribourg Alps, western Bernese Alps: 15 to 30 cm; along the French border as much as 40 cm
- remaining regions, 5 to 15 cm over widespread areas. In the Glarner Alps, in northern Grisons, in Lower Engadine as well as in the valleys of Visp, in the Simplon region and in central Ticino, only a few centimeters of new fallen snow is anticipated or else it will remain dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, -2 °C in northern regions and -4 °C in southern regions.
Wind
Winds will be westerly to southwesterly and are expected to intensify during the course of the day, blowing at strong to storm strength at high altitudes during the afternoon.
Outlook through Tuesday, 12.1.2016
Skies are expected to be heavily overcast for the most part and snowfall is anticipated frequently in southern regions above approximately 800 m and in northern regions above 1000 to 1400 m. In western regions, approximately 30 to 60 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated; in eastern and southern regions, approximately 10 to 30 cm. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly, blowing at strong to storm velocity. Avalanche danger is expected to remain tense and threatening."
@pam w,
Only ever heard it on the BBC from Valerie Singleton
Val Singleton, now there's a name from the past. She must be almost 80 because she's the same age as my mum. When my mum was a teenager she used to bring Val round to my gran's house now and again. My gran used to call her "that little jewess". I'm not sure Valerie has any jewish blood in her so I don't know where my gran got that from.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@davidof, I live next door to Mac, the Daily Mail cartoonist. Valerie Singleton is his wife's best friend. Not many people know that....
18z GFS stays solid gold cold out to Wednesday 20 January from this Monday. It's interesting how the GFS op run has gradually extended the cold further over the last 24 hours. (@pigeondave, no guarantee, but at present both ECM and GFS see that week at least starting cold in the Alps).
Many thanks
At least the snow that's there wont melt
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Sure noz you're great an all that, and thanks, but will it snow in Revelstoke in March and can you come round my house and do the washing up? Please.
Arrived in Rauris just east of Kaprun yesterday afternoon. Mixture of snow and sleet most of the night in the Village (950m).
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, Your efforts/expertise are, I am certain, greatly appreciated by many. I sincerely regret that you have cause to feel offended. Please be assured that for most of us, but for you, we would be lost in a myriad of lines & squiggles completely indecipherable. Not only that but again many of us have grown to trust your observations and interpretations - making perhaps sometimes serious decisions based upon them. Here I realise I take the risk of perhaps burdening you with unwarranted responsibility. Not so - we are all adults (well most of the decision-makers are I guess) and responsible for our own actions based upon reliable evidence.(as reliable as it is possible to be given the predictive nature of forecasting) I truly value your expertise and would be more than happy to buy you a pint at your local anytime.
- there - I have had my say - it will be interesting to see if mine is the only voice. I venture to hope it will not be!
Noza - please, please keep up the good 'work' !
After all it is free
After all it is free
Stop defending noza!
How dare he turn off the snow! Turn it on noza, you massive spoil sport!
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Here in Serre looks like the start of nigh on a week of "weather"
Temps just above freezin here light snow been falling for around an hour.
Have cleaned all the previous snow off the bird table roof so you can see how much snow has / is falling will also put a meter stake in the ground so you can see on the cam (link below) in sig.
EDIT jumped the gun, light snow now turning to rain
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
@nozawaonsen, please, please, please keep up your absolutely sterling efforts.
Very much appreciated.
Thank you.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
kapt and under a new name, Hear! Hear! A pint from me too.
(though we'll have to be careful - if too many buy him pints, it would be easy to set him over the new 14 unit limit . . . )
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Jonpim, so I went over my daily limit within 30 minutes at lunchtime yesterday, my weekly limit by the end of lunch, probably my monthly limit by the end of the night and was keeping pace with a GP.
Idiots.
(The UK Govt. I mean, not me and my chums).
[/thread drift]
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Hurtle wrote:
@davidof, I live next door to Mac, the Daily Mail cartoonist. Valerie Singleton is his wife's best friend. Not many people know that....
No, quite.
If you see her you can ask her to ask Val if she remembers Liz George (another Liz) who is now living back in West Wickham.
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Brrr...
ECM keeps it cold out to 20 January with a ridge in the Atlantic forcing the jet to drive down from the north.
You can see the switch coming up quite nicely in these images from this morning's GFS 00z. In this first one you can see the jet today heading straight into France (still mild and stormy).
However, by the weekend it is diving down from the north.
And in between those two points we'll see a substantial drop in temperatures along with snowfall to low levels across most of the Alps. This will make a huge difference to the slopes.
Heading into next week GFS is similar but around 19 Janaury seems keen to flatten things out with the Atlantic pressing through. ECM currently seems less convinced. However (and this is far FI), GFS 00z again rebuilt the ridge in the Atlantic and again saw cold air flowing down into the Alps after a brief mild interlude. Be interesting to see where the 06z just coming out goes with this.
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@davidof, yes, of course, I can just see how this will go... 'was just chatting to this geezer off the Internet, whom I've never met, about the weather, when Val Singleton's name cropped up and he asked me to ask you to ask her if she remembers his gran'...
Apologies for thread drift, Nozawaonsen, especially when you bring such glad tidings.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen, thanks for getting us back on track.
That first chart looks like some seriously cold weather.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The torrential rain and thaw has done for the Vercors pistes what December's blazing sunshine and summer temperatures failed to achieve. Practically all the skiing on the plateau is closed this weekend. The ski resorts made it through Christmas on man made snow but that has now been largely washed away on lower slopes with even the top of ski areas close to 2000 meters suffering. Only Meaudre has been able to resist, keeping 4 learner runs open. Commentators are calling the situation "catastropic" for the region.
Lans en Vercors
Villard des Lans, view at 1920 meters altitude
Bois Barbu cross country ski area
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
The MF forecast on display in the tourist office says on Tuesday the weather "devient epouvantable" That's the day I have to go down to Megeve to pick up a couple of visitors arriving by Chamexpress from GVA. Could be the first snow chains of the year.
@davidof, yes, of course, I can just see how this will go... 'was just chatting to this geezer off the Internet, whom I've never met, about the weather, when Val Singleton's name cropped up and he asked me to ask you to ask her if she remembers his gran'...
Apologies for thread drift, Nozawaonsen, especially when you bring such glad tidings.
Well I've no idea what you London types make small talk about, to be honest, apart from the weather.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Whats the view on the cfs model?
Further out into February this seems to suggest very mild conditions, which seems to alignwith a Netweather pediction of a warm February.
Conerned as we are going out for half term.
I know its a long way out but Netweather called this some time ago.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Sun 10-01-16 11:41; edited 1 time in total
The MF forecast on display in the tourist office says on Tuesday the weather "devient epouvantable" That's the day I have to go down to Megeve to pick up a couple of visitors arriving by Chamexpress from GVA. Could be the first snow chains of the year.
I think you'll be alright Tuesday, the snow seems to arrive on Thursday according to MF. Tuesday they say some showers so the snow tires should largely be ok.
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
on the state of the Vercors).
