@elefantfresh, I pop in occasionally....not sure whether or where I'll post any analysis, but am enjoying the current output and looking at every twist and turn. This early season La Nina type atlantic ridge / greenland high pattern has produced huge early dumps in the last 10 years, so it's certainly loaded with potential, but some runs have drifted too far west initially (17-18th), bringing threat of milder air from the SW....this is also a pattern we've seen in the last few years as good set ups get spoiled by west based -NAO / phasing of low's from the north and SW. Blahdy blah. Need slight shift east for the bullseye.
Unfortunately I've done my back in after some over eager wood chopping so not sure I'll even get on a board if it does snow soon. Have trips planned to Italy next week and maybe Engelberg end of month.
Still there is time, GFS 06z just out looks great (50-80cm at 1200m-1500m in the NW, hmmmmm long shot), but might be time to order winter tyres, wax and a massage gun.
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Val Thorens are still trying a bit of snowmaking - for what good it is doing. Probably the system is set to automatic and comes on just before dawn when it is cold enough. Next week will see a bit of snow in the French Alps on Tuesday before a return to more settled weather with maybe a bit more snow on the 17th. There is a lot of depth on the frontier with Italy at 3000 meters.
Wepowder has (I think) the Apennine resorts getting hit in Italy, or at least loads of Italian resorts I've never heard of
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
davidof wrote:
Val Thorens are still trying a bit of snowmaking - for what good it is doing. Probably the system is set to automatic and comes on just before dawn when it is cold enough. Next week will see a bit of snow in the French Alps on Tuesday before a return to more settled weather with maybe a bit more snow on the 17th. There is a lot of depth on the frontier with Italy at 3000 meters.
Val Thorens are still trying a bit of snowmaking - for what good it is doing.....
Colder weather is coming - You can see several of the higher Austrian resorts currently madly making snow here: don't think they'd be bothering if they didn't think it would last, and probably have early season opening to consider
Looks like it could be a reasonable amount for the more southerly areas
After all it is free
After all it is free
polo wrote:
@elefantfresh, I pop in occasionally....not sure whether or where I'll post any analysis, but am enjoying the current output and looking at every twist and turn. This early season La Nina type atlantic ridge / greenland high pattern has produced huge early dumps in the last 10 years, so it's certainly loaded with potential, but some runs have drifted too far west initially (17-18th), bringing threat of milder air from the SW....this is also a pattern we've seen in the last few years as good set ups get spoiled by west based -NAO / phasing of low's from the north and SW. Blahdy blah. Need slight shift east for the bullseye.
Unfortunately I've done my back in after some over eager wood chopping so not sure I'll even get on a board if it does snow soon. Have trips planned to Italy next week and maybe Engelberg end of month.
Still there is time, GFS 06z just out looks great (50-80cm at 1200m-1500m in the NW, hmmmmm long shot), but might be time to order winter tyres, wax and a massage gun.
Glad to hear you're about and keeping an eye on things. Very sorry to hear about your back. Massage and yoga and stretches as we get older I think.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
polo wrote:
@elefantfresh, I pop in occasionally....not sure whether or where I'll post any analysis, but am enjoying the current output and looking at every twist and turn. This early season La Nina type atlantic ridge / greenland high pattern has produced huge early dumps in the last 10 years, so it's certainly loaded with potential, but some runs have drifted too far west initially (17-18th), bringing threat of milder air from the SW....this is also a pattern we've seen in the last few years as good set ups get spoiled by west based -NAO / phasing of low's from the north and SW. Blahdy blah. Need slight shift east for the bullseye.
Unfortunately I've done my back in after some over eager wood chopping so not sure I'll even get on a board if it does snow soon. Have trips planned to Italy next week and maybe Engelberg end of month.
Still there is time, GFS 06z just out looks great (50-80cm at 1200m-1500m in the NW, hmmmmm long shot), but might be time to order winter tyres, wax and a massage gun.
Good to hear from you again @polo - sorry to hear about your back, hope it feels better soon.
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Great to see a bit of snow on the various webcams this morning in Italy and France. Plenty more please!
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Yes a nice little dusting for the NW alpes overnight. Shows how quickly it can change. Unfortunately it's going to warm back up over the next few days so unlikely to stick around.
Keen eys on the weather starting the 18th November which has had it cold and wet for a few runs now.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:
Great to see a bit of snow on the various webcams this morning in Italy and France.
Indeed! Heartening to see Tignes Val Claret looking quite white at last
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Cervinia webcams have a dusting all the way down to Magdeleine and Chamois
You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
With the outlook looking better next week lifting the mood I’m not so keen on the South Westerly that keeps cropping up in the distant future , as last season anything from that direction is going to be warm .
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Viewing ECMWF ENS Meteogram, the median values show intense cold from a week today, with some precipitation every day. They’ve been consistent with that.
Viewing ECMWF ENS Meteogram, the median values show intense cold from a week today, with some precipitation every day. They’ve been consistent with that.
I choose Arosa because that’s our first trip.
also, but until now in Bergfex und co. i do not see anything special
@stanton, All the long term forecasts are the same . Above av temps and below av precipitation.
I thought no one took any notice of anything beyond mid range forecasts? Other than trolls hoping to relay news of mild temperatures.
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
turms2 wrote:
Snow&skifan wrote:
Viewing ECMWF ENS Meteogram, the median values show intense cold from a week today, with some precipitation every day. They’ve been consistent with that.
I choose Arosa because that’s our first trip.
also, but until now in Bergfex und co. i do not see anything special
Just had a first look at the C3S Copernicus multi model seasonal forecasts, absolutely no chance of low lying snow if those charts come off, November is just a massive anticyclone over the whole of Europe, Dec is +NAO, mostly dry but chance of snow above 2500, Jan a write off, no precipitation and mild, Feb is best, might see a few showers below 1800m, Mar and Apr look just like Jan. it’s going to be the worst season since 1964 at least.
Meanwhile the latest near term modelling for 19-22nd Nov has improved, a nudge east, with less short wave drama mid Atlantic. Still risky but I think the potential is there for serious amounts of snow, to low levels. Records may tumble, long range schmlong range.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Presumably no cost-conscious resort management will be blowing snow until there's a half-decent chance that it will stick around?
Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
polo wrote:
@franga, cheers, I’ll try harder
Just had a first look at the C3S Copernicus multi model seasonal forecasts, absolutely no chance of low lying snow if those charts come off, November is just a massive anticyclone over the whole of Europe, Dec is +NAO, mostly dry but chance of snow above 2500, Jan a write off, no precipitation and mild, Feb is best, might see a few showers below 1800m, Mar and Apr look just like Jan. it’s going to be the worst season since 1964 at least.
Meanwhile the latest near term modelling for 19-22nd Nov has improved, a nudge east, with less short wave drama mid Atlantic. Still risky but I think the potential is there for serious amounts of snow, to low levels. Records may tumble, long range schmlong range.
http://youtube.com/v/qsERzK9fCCY just checking this out
Looking like high pressure, mild and dry for end of Nov into Dec.... for my son's uni trip to VT the week before xmas.
Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
mountainaddict wrote:
Quote:
I’m choosing to believe the Jet2 forecast which which is currently predicting between 1-4 meters of fresh snow between the 20th and 25th of November
You been on the Glühwein @fallingwithnostyle?
That link opens on the Les Menuires forecast - showing a maximum 13cm of snow over that period...
I promise, when I was looking at it last night it was showing 32-85cm of snow per day across the 23rd-25th...
saying that I did drive from Bristol to Manchester to Cheltenham yesterday and by the time I got home my brain was melting out of my ear.
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I think the models all agree on a cold snap beyond this weekend for possibly a week the big question is how long it stays in place before the milder air from the south west pushes it back .The trend in the models which are a long way out are suggesting that is likely .
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Quote:
I promise, when I was looking at it last night it was showing 32-85cm of snow per day across the 23rd-25th...
Cheers @fallingwithnostyle! Sorry to pee on your parade! We all continue to wait with bated breath!
I promise, when I was looking at it last night it was showing 32-85cm of snow per day across the 23rd-25th...
Cheers @fallingwithnostyle! Sorry to pee on your parade! We all continue to wait with bated breath!
What has happened to La Nina has that affect largely been disproven to having any affect this season?
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
La Nina is just one of several background drivers, and only has a marginal effect on europe. Although I referred to a La Nina type pattern (early season atlantic ridge / euro low) this pattern can happen under any ENSO state, it just happens to have a minor (small sample) correlation with La Nina afaik. In any case, current modelling is suggesting we might not even get a La Nina signal this winter, as the pacific is trending towards ENSO neutral. Then you'd have to look at the combination with the other drivers (QBO, Solar cycle etc), and see if ENSO nuetral is possibly a better fit than La Nina....ie higher correlation with cold / snowy winters in europe. Spoiler alert, it is. But will it matter.
The apps and resorts like above mostly use the GFS Op run, while some use ECM Op run, or a slightly adjusted version of the raw outputs. Point is, they will swing around massively more than 4-5 days ahead, especially wrt to precipitation. Temps too for sure will move a lot, but ppn is even less reliable. So not unusual to see a GFS run change from showing 5cm to 50cm at a given resort and v.v. every 6 hours, for any day next week. But with each run the consensus builds towards a more reliable forecast obviously as time draws closer....first given the pressure pattern, the models will guess the temps, and then how much snow willl fall each day.
The midday (12z) are rolling out, first up is the ICON (below)....and like the other models it has been trying to figure out the extent and positiion of this euro low.....this particular run is a great example of what we want to see.....high pressure up into greenland, and low pressure over europe with distrubances over UK /north sea, leading to N/NW flow into the alps. While some runs swing east and others swing west with the pattern, these shifts have huge ramifications for where the snow/rain will land. Recently GFS 12z is trending the pattern to the east, while ECM stays too far west.....so I like the odds of a consensus, bullseye middle ground. Only problem is this chart is 7 days away, so will undoubtably change.
Either way there is going to be fairly widespread snow in europe, including UK....the models though will not be able to tell just yet which alps resort / area is most likely to hit big numbers. Small chance it all goes wrong, probably tomorrow before anyone can make a good forecast for 18-22 window. I note GFS is still shifting everything east pretty quickly.....hopefully not too far.
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 13-11-24 17:39; edited 1 time in total
FAQ
Poster: A snowHead
- You can see several of the higher Austrian resorts currently madly making snow here: don't think they'd be bothering if they didn't think it would last, and probably have early season opening to consider
for my son's uni trip to VT the week before xmas.
