 Poster: A snowHead
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Italian weather site. Shows Madonna di Campiglio at 9 degrees that day.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@scotspikey, well like I said it's almost certainly just spinning out the GFS op run.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @scotspikey, no idea what 3b meteo is but taking a wild stab in the dark I'd say it is based on the GFS op run. As I mentioned above it goes very mild at that date, but has very little support from the rest of the ensembles. |
Is the op run the thick green on the wiggles - the "GFS - Hauptlauf"?
Always thought the main one was the white line.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@snowheads68, no the thick green "hauptlauf" is the "main run" is the operational, the white line is the mean.
@red 27, yep strong winds could be disruptive at the start of the week as I mentioned earlier.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@snowheads68, white is the average so the one I pay most attention too but the green and blue maybe have some additional importance - noza, in what circumstances would be consider an outlier in the op and control to be important and why?
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@Millom, re your summary of the sesson so far: how do you gather your info? Are you out here?
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@under a new name, I obviously run user satisfaction surveys, consult weather reports, and if I have time ask God but isn't this the same for every other forum user who posts?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| rob@rar wrote: |
| harrymac wrote: |
| I do not want to come across as naive but want to be 100% sure. |
It's the "100%" bit which is tricky. Although incredibly rare, on-piste fatalities from avalanches have happened (one in Les Arcs a couple of season ago, one in Val Thorens I think). But these unfortunate incident are so rare I don't think you should give it a first thought, never mind a second. You are much more likely to be injured on piste from other types of accident, and even those are relatively unusual. If a piste is open you shouldn't worry about avalanche risk. |
The probability of death by onpiste-avalanche worldwide is roughly 0.000001% per year.
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Well, @Millom, the funny thing is that you clearly come across as a glass half empty kind of person. All of our clents so far have had a lovely time. It's the saisonnaires who aren't happy.
Based on interviews and personal experience. Yup. Real life actually,
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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You've neatly made UANN's point, @Millom. The question"did you have a good holiday?" is quite different from "were the snow conditions good?"
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Millom wrote: |
| ...I obviously run user satisfaction surveys... |
Are you a travel agent or tour operator?
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Poster: A snowHead
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Please stay cold, please stay cold, please stay cold... I'm out on the 30th
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Snowing heavily in val thorens all afternoon. Had lunch and left my skis flat, they gathered at least 5cm within 40 minutes. Snow felt a lot colder and drier than the stuff falling for the last few days. Intensity seemed to be increasing as I left.
Just passed the exact snow / rain line on the way home at St martin, 1450.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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but there's the thing pam_w I clearly talked about the weather/snow conditions
"weather (rain/wind) and/or snow conditions (grass/ice/rocks) have been disappointing"
and this is what was replied to by UANN
BUT
some people on this thread don't do reality they do "cloud cuckoo land" and mislead
for people who spent much more on their recent trips I'd have thought disappointing would also be a fair assessment for their holiday as well as the weather/snow
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Can we please let bygones be bygones and stop picking on Millom and especially keep the petty arguments out of this thread?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| 8611 wrote: |
| Snowing heavily in val thorens all afternoon. |
This pleases me. 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I've had some great holidays when the conditions have been poor and some so so holidays when the weather has been great. All depends a bit. Kind of subjective.
Anyway maybe the "Boo-life-just-sucks-I-reckon-everyone-else-is-having-an-awful-time! Oi-wahey-I-reckon-everyone-is-having-a-great time-thread" could go elsewhere?
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@Gaza,
Hmm, I wonder if we can shed some light on this simmering ambiguity. Here is my twopennorth (no pun intended!). Pre decimalisation their were coins to the value of two pennies and three pennies.
I don't recollect the two penny coin being called a tuppenny bit. There again, I am getting on a bit. One thing for sure is that it was a big sucker. Therefore, if flakes of snow are being thus described, one may rest assured that they were not insubstantial flakes.
On the other hand, the coin to the value of three pennies was very much known as a threepenny bit. To avoid confusion please also note that those from the higher orders commonly referred to the coin as a "thrupenny" bit and "thruppence" as a handy way of emphasising one's station. This was a much smaller 12 sided coin. Had the flakes been described as being like a threepenny bit, this would have been grounds for much less excitement.
If my memory is in error, I apologise now.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@davidof, no pain for me yet. Trip at Christmas was fine for the price I paid just not a ski holiday as such and it could have been so much better with decent snow. I'm off to Vorarlberg in February and hope to ski some off-piste during the trip so shall have higher expectations for good snow. I feel most sorry for the smaller resorts (<50km) and small pensions (locals renting) rather than the larger ski areas and/or TOs.
By the way I was making no comment on how things may turn out for the rest of the season only about how I considered the situation so far.
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The 12 run keeps it looking good.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Well how about this for editorial license etc and a good example of Tourist Offices trying to make the most of the conditions!
This was posted on the Serre Chevalier Face Book this morning for the weekend!
It was good to see various comments "having a go at them" for suggesting it's a Pow Pow weekend etc - should have been a photo of someone with an umbrella!
Currently two degrees and low cloud, every time the cloud cleared I looked up the hill with the telescope to see where the SL was but could not make it out, that's what I normally do in late March / April not into the second week of January!
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Surely everyone said "thruppence" no matter what order they belonged to?
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You know it makes sense.
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| HammondR wrote: |
@Gaza,
Hmm, I wonder if we can shed some light on this simmering ambiguity. Here is my twopennorth (no pun intended!). Pre decimalisation their were coins to the value of two pennies and three pennies.
I don't recollect the two penny coin being called a tuppenny bit. There again, I am getting on a bit. One thing for sure is that it was a big sucker. Therefore, if flakes of snow are being thus described, one may rest assured that they were not insubstantial flakes.
On the other hand, the coin to the value of three pennies was very much known as a threepenny bit. To avoid confusion please also note that those from the higher orders commonly referred to the coin as a "thrupenny" bit and "thruppence" as a handy way of emphasising one's station. This was a much smaller 12 sided coin. Had the flakes been described as being like a threepenny bit, this would have been grounds for much less excitement.
If my memory is in error, I apologise now. |
"Half a pound of tupenny rice
Half a pound of treacle
That's the way the money goes...
Pop goes the Weasel"
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@snowheads68, that looks like a lot of snow for the alps. Hopefully it will all be bashed into place by the time I get there on the 23rd jan
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Poster: A snowHead
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Could any of you shed some light on the chart above and this link http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png.
I know they are of different places but which one says more snow.The first one on this page has far higher spikes but the second one has less height to the spikes but its spread across more days i think? Thanks
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@red 27, in St Anton now and it's bucketing down. Was yesterday as well, but 90% of people couldn't benefit because dreadful flat light and whiteout. Seen many people having big problems with conditions.
Tour operator reports should always be ignored, Crystal particularly need to be held responsible for some of their, there's no other way to describe it, bare face lies.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Dr John, what did the to say that was lying? 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@harrymac, if you find those places on the map that @snowheads68 posted you can see how the operational run for each would roughly translate into precipitation. Obviously you have to take into account all the points mentioned a couple of pages ago. It would (bearing these points in mind) translate into a lot more snow for the ensemble set in the western Alps compared to that in the eastern Alps.
It is not sensible to look at the mean rather than the operational. The mean can allow you to gauge the confidence you should have in the operational. In the near term a few days out GFS becomes more marginal than WRF in any case. In the longer term the mean will (not surprisingly) tend to illustrate regression to the mean.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Dr John, Thanks for the report.
I like a good blizzard myself but it's not to everyone's taste. It also helps to be in a resort you know well as route-finding can be an issue
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@noza, so are you saying that if the op and the rest of the ensembles are very different then the confidence is just very low even if the rest are all in agreement and op is a sole outlier? Over recent days the op has been an outlier in both prec and temp at a number of points on recent runs.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 9-01-16 20:12; edited 1 time in total
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ECM keeps it cold from Monday evening till Tuesday 19 January at least.
GFS has it turning mild around that time (and has support from the control run), but in far FI returns it to cold by the following weekend (too far out to pay much attention to).
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@Millom, I have a dilemma which I've being weighing up all day. I normally try very hard to answer questions people put on here to the best of my ability. I get no material benefit in any way from doing this. And I try where I can to be helpful and cheerful. So normally I'd want to answer your question. But the dilemma is this. I have not come across someone who posts in quite such a calculatedly offensive way as you for a long time. It's not the content of what you are saying. You can have a point of view and that's as valid as any. Though sometimes I do wonder when you claim to be able to represent what others think in such a sweeping way as you tend to. And sometimes I think you make some valid points. But I just find the way you often choose (and you do choose this) to post frequently really unpleasant. I know you have copped some flack and maybe some of that has been unfair. But I really would find it easier to help out if you would in return scale back on some of the bitterness and scorn. It's not necessary. Sorry to be blunt. But that's the way it is. I'll answer your question after I've popped out to the pub.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Ok so I found on another forum (sure something similar will be here too somewhere) this definition:
"Operational run = high resolution model, no change to initial conditions
Control run = as operational model but a lower resolution model (i.e. less horizontal and vertical grid points)
Ensemble runs = the lower resolution model (same as control run) but with small changes to initial condtions
The control is a "control" when it differs from the op then you know the resolution is having an effect on the outcome."
@Noza, I find the https://forum.netweather.tv/ forums much more friendly and less bias than these forums but they obviously have a slightly different focus. There is an Alps thread but it doesn't get the quantity of responses as you get here. I've never felt the impulse to tackle anything written there but you're right I have taken exception to some of the comments made by people on here. So once you get off your high horse I'll point out that I've been only pleasant to you up to this point but I do take a little exception to the post above. You can answer what you like to who you like but please don't fall into the trap of others by saying don't be offensive whilst be exactly that yourself! 
Enjoy the pub and no need to answer the question anymore.
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@Noz
Just from the usually generally lurking perspective. I'm super impressed by your effort on this thread, and I'm very grateful of people such as yourself that make such efforts. Both on this thread and outwidth as it goes, my life is quite heavily dependent on people who make such actions. I wont go as far as to say altruistic, altruism is a wierd beast too complex to discuss here and possibly online full stop.
Anyway, keep up the good work old chap. I'll take it with a pinch of salt as with any weather predicting. But your very much appreciated.
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