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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
As I described on the Tignes thread the Atlantic pressure Charts here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1452556800
look like a 3 year old has gone mad with the crayon box. Any forecasting model is ultimately based on crunching basic data about the atmosphere, currently the atmosphere above us in the Alps and out into the Atlantic (where our weather is coming from at the moment) is chaotic so any run of any model is going to change from run to run - digitising something does not make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

PS. I am not a meteorologist but spent 30 years with them as a military flier so I have a basic understanding of weather and the limitations that professional forecasters face and in no way do I mean to detract from the people on here that know a lot more about weather than I do. But I am happily retied so I guess I learnt something!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Guys will it warm up from the 16th and if so what would the freezing level be? What would the warmer temps do to the snow quality?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@chocksaway, this period has looked like being a mess for some days now. High snow line, heavy precipitation, high winds. Temperatures dropping a lot by Monday evening (unless it goes Barton Bank) and a snowy week to come. Be interesting to see how things look by this time next week.
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@angusert4, too far ahead to tell as I have said (a few times).
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@nozawaonsen, I think we have more chance of picking the Brit Lotto numbers than forecasting past Tuesday! Though I suspect Monday might approach biblical up here at 2100m.
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@chocksaway, I'm pretty confident temperatures will drop considerably from Monday night and will stay below average for most of next week. It looks like there will be quite a bit of wind, but perhaps not the storm strengths we can expect over next few days. There should be snowfall to low levels in much of the Alps. Beyond Friday gets a lot more tricky.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@chocksaway, do you remember that photo of the guy who had an avalanche come through the window onto his bed? When all the lifts in Val dIsere were closed and pedestrians prohibited from walking outside in parts of the town?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@nozawaonsen, beyond Friday get a lot more tricky......spill please
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
That said of course... It was Boxing Day... Fifteen, fifteen lengths ahead... Nothing could go wrong... The crowd rose as one... Cheering... Screaming... He... Fell... At the last... Silence... Then only beer.
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
@pam w, Yip, but I can't find that picture sadly.

Meanwhile Tignes has just issued new advice on what to do if there is an avalanche alarm in the village, my apartment block is one of the very few that is outside the risk zone. I wish I could say that about my flat in York!!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
@Chris Brookes, just tricky to tell. A lot of shifting from run to run. That said ECM keeps it cold in the Alps until at least 18 January.

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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Fwiw I saw it the last few days in 3v definitely raining 2300 plus and arguably higher (depending on definition of snow). Years gone by i've been conscious of there not being snow late christmas, but I always thought it was because of no precipitation rather than not low temperatures. Tended to go places where the focus wasn't on snow cannons. Bided my time this year, waited for the snow and came after lots of it, to encounter rain at that height in Jan a little galling. Albeit it was apparent from forecast that freezing line would rise so perhaps I should have known better.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@8611, yes, it's unusual to have rain so high in January. But then the river Don never burst its bank before and 2015 was (I think) the warmest year on record. It was above freezing at the north pole some time very recently. Davidof's wife was stung by a wasp yesterday and my brother in law in Worcestershire two days ago. The times they are a changin'.......
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Quote:

and my brother in law in Worcestershire two days ago. The times they are a changin'.......


Does he normally fly south for winter?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Thawmageddon?
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Switzerland skiers down -11% from a year ago during Xmas / New Year 2015...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fcaa770-b5d8-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz3wh6vEBbX
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Handy paywall that. Mind doing a copy and paste?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Actually went outside to make a phone call, at 2000m, in a T-shirt, and it's raining, like proper drops of rain.

Ill shut up now - may the snow be good to those who follow me out, and the forecasts interesting for those who follow from afar or disinterested positions too
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Waspmageddon

It'll be grand, warm, cold, warm, cold
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
pam w wrote:
@8611But then the river Don never burst its bank before..


Bit rash. https://books.google.co.uk/books?id=RXU2AQAAMAAJ&pg=RA1-PA148&lpg=RA1-PA148&dq=river+don+aberdeen+flooding&source=bl&ots=ShInrNxw4J&sig=nP6uVG7WMirmL0JthJIWGYVcqT0&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwj789a3pJvKAhXFVRQKHcQDDLU4KBDoAQgZMAA#v=onepage&q=river%20don%20aberdeen%20flooding&f=false


That said, yes the time are a changing.
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
Piemonster wrote:
Handy paywall that. Mind doing a copy and paste?


Pretend you are google, you'll get a mate's rate from the FT

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fcaa770-b5d8-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Fri 8-01-16 23:51; edited 1 time in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@davidof, clever.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Piemonster wrote:
Handy paywall that. Mind doing a copy and paste?



If you paste the article's full title into Google, and click on the link it brings up, you should be able to read the full article from Google's saved cache of the FT.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Ta very much both Smile
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
jbob wrote:
@davidof, clever.


I know, I just found that method after experimenting with the web page myself. I think with the Current Bun I got round it by editing the Javascript that puts up the paywall banner; or the HTML class names anyway that didn't work with the FT but I noticed they had some info about search engine indexing in the page source so I thought, if Google can read it, so can we Happy.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Looking at the longer term picture...

It still looks for now like the dominant picture for the rest of winter is a +NAO (ie the base pattern we have had all winter and much of autumn).

That would tend to mean wetter weather in the northern Alps (and UK).

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euPrece3Mon.html

And generally (though not necessarily always) milder weather.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/euT2me3Mon.html

That said AO and NAO are due to go negative next week so will be interesting to see how this looks in a week's time.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Whitegold wrote:
Piemonster wrote:
Handy paywall that. Mind doing a copy and paste?



If you paste the article's full title into Google, and click on the link it brings up, you should be able to read the full article from Google's saved cache of the FT.


Did you try it, seems to work fine as well.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
^ Yeah, works fine.

Google cache also works with WSJ and Economist and a few others.


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Fri 8-01-16 23:55; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
Piemonster wrote:
Handy paywall that. Mind doing a copy and paste?


Pretend you are google, you'll get a mate's rate from the FT

http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fcaa770-b5d8-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html


Quote"Conventional snow producers “came under attack,” said Balzer Aspargaus, head of snow making"

Best name ever Smile
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Quote:

Did you try it, seems to work fine as well.


I just clicked the link. But I've done that before, just forgotten that it could be done.

I've reached a stage in life where the mind is full, and to add something new, something old has to leave.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Whitegold wrote:
^ Yeah, works fine.

Google cache also works with WSJ and Economist and a few others.


That's also good to know. Thanks again.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
The telegraph paywall is dead simple to avoid, just go incognito. They seriously need to sack a developer or two.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I can live without bypassing the Telegraph paywall tbh NehNeh
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I guess the business model depends on what the venn diagram showing 'people who aren't smart enough to bypass the paywall' and 'people who would be prepared to pay to read a website' looks like. Fried egg anyone?

EDIT: To make it clear that I see snowheads/ super / mega snowheads as paying to support a community not read a website Embarassed wink
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Quote:

I can live without bypassing the Telegraph paywall tbh

Toofy Grin
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 You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
waynos wrote:
The telegraph paywall is dead simple to avoid, just go incognito. They seriously need to sack a developer or two.


Isn't the Telegraph only read by upper class 'nice but dim' types, and retired military officers, neither of whom are likely to have the skills to send an email, no mind about defeat a paywall.


Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Sat 9-01-16 8:34; edited 5 times in total
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Whitegold wrote:
Switzerland skiers down -11% from a year ago during Xmas / New Year 2015...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fcaa770-b5d8-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f.html#axzz3wh6vEBbX


Hey, I am part of that stat! Sorry, Switzerland, you didn't have any cold smoke powder for me to play in! Sad
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@8611, I said earlier maybe this thread that it reminded me of 1989 because the freezing levels from Cham meteo were so similar...

Not so new...

But I didn't ski in Goretex in those days. Moist!!
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@ringingmaster, I'd better stop posting then or alternatively I could just call you a lazy stereotyper.

Could you tell me where to put a stamp on an e mail please?
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
chocksaway wrote:
@ringingmaster, I'd better stop posting then or alternatively I could just call you a lazy stereotyper.

Could you tell me where to put a stamp on an e mail please?
Very Happy
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