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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@nozawaonsen, Is it just me or do the GFS models seem to be a little all over the place today?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Snow level was anything from 1900m to 2200m in courchevel today, rain otherwise.
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Quote:

@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.


Icelandic, by the sound of things - I'll have mine with mushy peas
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
clarky999 wrote:
Please let the Nordstau wePowder is mentioning come true! Snow still sucks here. Lots of resorts only half open (Nordkette hasn't even opened at all!), valley run into Schruns hasn't opened at all... Worst season since I've been out here, and a lot worse than last season now.


I think it is a bit better than 2007 looking back at my notes.... if that makes you feel better.
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Can anyone shed any light on the conditions/forecast for Alpendorf and Ski Made area? ta!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Raining for a while at 2000m here..........
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@davidof, haha thanks!
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.


Yep definitely starting to look up! Really we need a big game changing dump like the 27-29 December one last year.
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@bamberd, @clarky999, sounds like schladming / amade area is fairing a bit better than other parts of Austria. Most piste open, some natural snow in the valleys, decent schnee making infrastructure, though of course a decent nordstau to get the free riding going is what's needed. http://www.hauser-kaibling.at/en/news/weather-webcams/webcams
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clarky999 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.


Yep definitely starting to look up! Really we need a big game changing dump like the 27-29 December one last year.


Unfortunately 27/29 didn't change things round here, maybe out east? It wasn't really skiable until the 2nd half of January except on piste or altitude. What 27-29 brought was 20cm snow at valley level which caused the traffic chaos.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@davidof, I'm not sure about really East, but in Vorarlberg and Tirol it brought enough snow to make tree runs possible. We have had snow to the valleys this season, but only 5-10cms at a time, and swiftly melting after. I had an interesting drive then as well with about 10+cm sitting on the motorway, but luckily for me it was deserted (at 2am mind) and with winter tyres and 4x4 I had no issues.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
clarky999 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.


Yep definitely starting to look up! Really we need a big game changing dump like the 27-29 December one last year.


Can a single dump really turn a season around? If so, who do I have to speak to? Smile
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@clarky999, Mid Jan last year I was anticipating the forecast dump in the Savoie, whilst on the way down there on 16th. Instead, it went to Austria and Dolomites. Need that to happen again wink
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@clarky999, I'm heading to Khutai SIGB again 22nd Feb for three days so please pull your finger out shortly Toofy Grin
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
At last some big numbers for the Eastern Alps.

I know I'll be told to not pay attention to the actual numbers but surely we'll get a decent dump out of that.



.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
forgive the ignorance what is "nordstau"? im assuming its a font coming in on a northern direction?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Thanks @Gaza, indeed didn't think of Bergfex thanks a lot!
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mikekimber24 wrote:
forgive the ignorance what is "nordstau"? im assuming its a font coming in on a northern direction?


A traffic jam in Prussia?
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@snowheads68, This is what's confusing me. Forecasts are winding the cm back for Dolomites, but these images are pushing them up.
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We do NOT want warmth from the 17th. Damn I hope those predictions change.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@mikekimber24, it's a name for a type of weather pattern with low pressure sitting right over Scandinavia and high pressure over the Azores. Cold air and snow races down towards the northern Alps. Unlike the recent weather which is driven from the west it comes more from the northwest and you therefore have much lower temperatures. We end up with something along those lines next week (though to be a real classic I think you'd need the pressure to be deeper and more sustained).
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
davidof wrote:
mikekimber24 wrote:
forgive the ignorance what is "nordstau"? im assuming its a font coming in on a northern direction?


A traffic jam in Prussia?


Kind of. A snowy one that gets stuck over the Alps. Honk honk.
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@Waffle, I'm not sure which forecasts you are referring to, but my guess is they are GFS based. The 00z had little snow in the Dolomites, the 12z has more.

But (and this is the important part) the weather forecast site you are looking at almost certainly lags the GFS data by several hours (one well known one is three hours behind). So although it is the same data it might take several hours for that to appear in the forecast you are looking at (whereas with the chart above it is almost as soon as it comes out).

This can also make people believe they can look at several forecasts on different websites and assume they have different data sources because the figures are different. But it might just be one is slower at updating than another.
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davidof wrote:
mikekimber24 wrote:
forgive the ignorance what is "nordstau"? im assuming its a font coming in on a northern direction?


A traffic jam in Prussia?


Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Weathercam wrote:
@clarky999, I'm heading to Khutai SIGB again 22nd Feb for three days so please pull your finger out shortly Toofy Grin


Cool - I'll also be there for a couple of days with Fall Line. Lets try and grab a beer and some turns?
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, Thank you Smile I'm looking at Meteociel, Wetterzentrale and Bergfex. I don't look at Snow Forecast anymore, it's not worth the subscription or the t-shirts and can be downright provocative at times..
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
J2R wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@clarky999, looks cod and snowy most of next week. Should transform things.


Yep definitely starting to look up! Really we need a big game changing dump like the 27-29 December one last year.


Can a single dump really turn a season around? If so, who do I have to speak to? Smile


If it's big enough!

We got over a metre at mid mountain from the one mentioned, which was enough to make pretty much everything skiable after, and built enough base to last through mile weather without going right down to the rocks. The problem this year is that what snow has come came in small amounts - small enough to melt in the warmer days after, so it hasn't really accumulated in a lot of places. Even if we were to get a metre this coming week (optimistic?) we'd still be well below average, but again it would make pretty much everything skiable.

Who to speak to? Send me a blank cheque in the post and I'll take care of it for you wink
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Sunday afternoon through Monday is looking a bit rough in the Alps on the synoptic chart. Full on goretex weather.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/surface-pressure/#?
tab=surfacePressureColour&fcTime=1452427200
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
"... tense and threatening."

SLF's evening update for Switzerland.

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

And their thoughts on the weather (my bold).

"Observed weather on Friday, 8.1.2016

In Sotto Ceneri it was quite sunny. Otherwise, following the final bright spells in the furthermost eastern regions, skies were overcast for the most part. During the morning, new, light snowfall set in from the west. The snowfall level on the northern flank of the Alps was between 1600 and 2000 m; in other regions it was lower.

Fresh snow

By Friday evening above approximately 2000 m in the western part of Lower Valais, 5 to 10 cm of new fallen snow was registered; in other regions, less.

...

Weather forecast through Saturday, 9.1.2016

Skies are expected to be overcast, accompanied by intermittent snowfall. The snowfall level will drop from approximately 2000m down to about 1400 m.

Fresh snow

By Saturday evening above approximately 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are anticipated:

- furthermost western part of Lower Valais: 20 to 40 cm
- remaining parts of Lower Valais, northern Valais, northern flank of the Alps: 15 to 30 cm
- Grisons, Ticino: 5 to 15 cm

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, -1 °C.

Wind

Winds will be southwesterly to westerly during the night, blowing at strong to storm velocity. During the day, winds are expected to taper off significantly.

Outlook through Monday,

11.1.2016

Skies will be heavily overcast by and large, and above approximately 1000 m snowfall can be frequently expected..In western regions, approximately 30 to 50 cm of new fallen snow is anticipated; in eastern and southern regions, approximately 10 to 30 cm. Winds will be westerly to southwesterly, particularly in the Valais and on the northern flank of the Alps blowing at strong to storm velocity. The avalanche danger levels are expected to remain tense and threatening."
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Poster: A snowHead
More agreement between Gilles and Thierry tomorrow with rain varying from 1900 m tonight in the Haute-Savoie to 2200 meters further south.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
clarky999 wrote:
Please let the Nordstau wePowder is mentioning come true! Snow still sucks here. Lots of resorts only half open (Nordkette hasn't even opened at all!), valley run into Schruns hasn't opened at all... Worst season since I've been out here, and a lot worse than last season now.


I've always been a little confused: if I understand correctly, Arlberg on average gets more snow than French Alps. Which seems somewhat counterintuitive as I would have expected French Alps, being more Westerly, to get more precipitation, as they are now. Does France get more precipitation, but it is milder so more falls as rain? Or does an Azores high partly block French Alps, redirecting systems "up and over" to hit Austria? Or all down to idiosyncratic local topography?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
clarky999 wrote:
Please let the Nordstau wePowder is mentioning come true! Snow still sucks here. Lots of resorts only half open (Nordkette hasn't even opened at all!), valley run into Schruns hasn't opened at all... Worst season since I've been out here, and a lot worse than last season now.


I've always been a little confused: if I understand correctly, Arlberg on average gets more snow than French Alps. Which seems somewhat counterintuitive as I would have expected French Alps, being more Westerly, to get more precipitation, as they are now. Does France get more precipitation, but it is milder so more falls as rain? Or does an Azores high partly block French Alps, redirecting systems "up and over" to hit Austria? Or all down to idiosyncratic local topography?
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@peanuthead, weather doesn't always come in from the West.
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@nozawaonsen, it looks like the Alps is going to do okay next week but anything in the pipeline for the Pyrenees? It looks a bit thin on the ground (if you excuse the pun!) in some of the forecasts I've seen.
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Still raining over the Jungfrau Region with a FL of 2200m....................the joys !
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@Chris Brookes, that's not good... I'll be down the road in Melchsee-Frutt tomorrow... it tops out at 2200!
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Is it unusual for it to rain above 2000m in Jan? To use that phrase "an unusual weather event"?
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@8611, not unheard of, but not normal. But of course this winter so far has been anything but normal.

Though if you are referring to @Chris Brookes' post specifically I am not sure whether he is saying it is raining at that level or whether it is just the freezing level.

Either way not normal for January, but interestingly the very positive NAO was modelled some months ago.
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Live webcam at the station Kleine Scheidegg 2061m...that was all white until the rain arrived earlier

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