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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@nozawaonsen sorry to trouble you, but is this pattern expected to carry on into the following week w/c 18th? i.e. very cold and plenty of snow?

Thanks for all the excellent info you post Smile
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Tonight's Meteo Chamonix is spectacular. Rain for days, to over 2000m at times with heavy snow by midweek with "accumulations to watch even in the valleys".

Plenty of wind, too.

High avalanche risk, presumably and there'll be loads of lift closures.

Forecast reliability"poor". A point to note before people start summing all the numbers of cms to fall on Resort X according to inaccuweather.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, pam w, if all that comes to pass, then I'm in the right place for once (wild wilderness of UB9). Rain, wind, poor visibility, lifts closed, plague, locusts, zombie invasion . . .
But then come the 20th (when I'm back): lovely Arctic temperatures , clear blue skies and zombies all gone . . . Perfick! snowHead
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@pam w, Cham-Met "rain...with foehn wind" - I was always told to keep my hairdryer out of the bathwater.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Haha, another "spring is coming"....it's all going to melt....run away run away, why even bother skiing when the season is only 2 weeks long?
How about just enjoying what we have, the sun at xmas was nice and the snow in Jan is nice.
Out of the 4 febs I've had here, 2 were brutally cold....-20 chill factor.
We have loads of snow, with 2 more meters on the way, it's going to be baltic next week so we may well get to the end of Jan cheering in the warm fronts like a bunch of romans.
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@pam w, I would note that only once does he suggest the possibility of a +2,000m R/S limit..

@langball, who was suggesting any of that? It's mild for the next few days but good snow typically above 1,500m. That's now the end of the world (for me anyway) ...

Feels very 1989.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@under a new name, previous page, it's ok now, I shouldn't post before having breakfast
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
As I just look out the jolly old window it's snowing lightly.

Just getting ready to go up the hill with Kenx, though when I say getting ready, reckon half an hour to dig van out!

Temp -0.5 so warmer than yesterday so will be interesting to see what happens rest of the day, but reckon we could well see +3.5 in the valley and SL around 1800 which will not be too bad.

Was very still in the valley yesterday and again this morning, so will there be wind up top. Curious to know what it's been like on the other side of the Col?

Fair bit of blasting I can hear going on.

And have edited a video of the Jack Russel tossing in the snow from yesterday, it's on the link below
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Thing is, we're due the same system which is causing havoc in Scotland. Very unstable weather, hard to forecast detail for a specific location at a specific time and big local variation.
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was quite some banging and sliding around here this morning...


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Fri 8-01-16 8:37; edited 1 time in total
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
This is our 12th season in the central Pyrenees and I have never experienced a start to the season like this one. Certainly in years gone by (not recently) there have been dry periods but cold, where the guns have been running to keep the pistes alive. However this year the consistently mild temperatures coinciding with heavy rain/snow are creating havoc. Two days ago, very cold, between 20 and 30cm of new snow had fallen, yesterday afternoon the new snow had gone and rivers were running at 1800m - crazy.

Luckily for us we have 3 resorts, 2 of which have extensive skiing above 1800 metres so the season is far from a right off, however without a long period of cold to consolidate the base any further mild weather is going to create a headache or two.

Luchon - Superbagneres: 15/10cm
Peyragudes: 50/25cm
Baqueira Beret: 85/40cm

We are patiently waiting the "Coldest winter in 100 years" prediction to come true.

Puzzled Puzzled Puzzled
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Hi there, could do with a bit of advice about Courmayeur. Am off there on Monday for the week and based on current forecast, was wondering if the resort tend to close most of the lifts and runs during heavy snowfall? I know some resorts can be more risk averse than others and terrain also lends itself to what stays open, so looking for a bit of local knowledge.

Also, am driving there from Geneva, presuming the ATMB motorway is kept pretty well clear to the tunnel given the amount of HGV traffic that uses it so shouldn't need anything more than car with winter tyres on (which is what I've hired anyway)
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, can I just ask please, those depths of precipitation on the chart are they in mm or cm? It's says 291 for our destination (which I know we shouldn't take as actual) but I had been reading cms until I had a lightbulb moment (I think)
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@NE1, cm, but should be taken with a large pinch of salt. I tend to ignore the precise numbers and just think in terms of light, moderate, heavy, massive, sort of categories. 291cm definitely trends towards massive...
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@bigtuboflard,
http://www.chamonix.com/road-conditions,10,en.html
The road is usually fine except for maybe an hour or so during the worst storms.

Courmayeur is usually reliable for lifts especially the lower ones, however the weather is exceptional at the moment so who knows. They opened late this morning!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Rain rain rain in Alpe d'Huez Sad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Rain in Les Menuires as well Crying or Very sad Crying or Very sad
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@NE1, it's actually a measure of precipitation (kg/m2) not snow.

As @rob@rar says very roughly that equates to cm, but that assumes a standard snow water ratio of 10:1 which it won't necessarily be (with heavy warm snow it will be lower with light dry snow it will be higher).

It's also just raw data pulled from the GFS operational run. So is as subject to change as that is.

But the take away is very heavy snow at altitude over the next few days (rain lower down) particularly in the western and northern Alps. Followed by snow to low levels from early next week.
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Quote:

And have edited a video of the Jack Russel tossing in the snow from yesterday

And it doesn't matter how you throw them - they always go back to where you threw the snowball rolling eyes
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Once we get past Monday's fun and games looks like snowfall on and off to low levels for much of the Alps next week. Less heavy, but colder.

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And as you can see from the Chamonix ensembles once we get to the end of next week (15 Jan) there really is no clear indication of how things will pan out.



With a difference of 25C between the different ensemble runs that extent of scatter indicates a high degree of uncertainty.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Over at www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk (I'm liking that site) they are saying this mornings GFS is showing the cold snap may not be as prolonged as was initially thought. What could be interesting though is if the low brings in moisture and it hits the cold air over the UK. That might deliver a fair bit of snow.



From the 17th onwards there is a 10c difference in temps.



That is still a long way off but it will make interesting viewing over the coming days.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Missus has just been stung by a wasp getting out of the car, not bad for the French alps on the 8th Jan.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
And as you can see from the Chamonix ensembles once we get to the end of next week (15 Jan) there really is no clear indication of how things will pan out.



With a difference of 25C between the different ensemble runs that extent of scatter indicates a high degree of uncertainty.


THese are really good. Are you a weather forecaster?
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
Ski the Net with snowHeads
I know nothing about all of this, but I'm finding it very interesting.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
davidof wrote:
Missus has just been stung by a wasp getting out of the car, not bad for the French alps on the 8th Jan.


it was the missus who was getting out of the car btw
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Quote:


davidof wrote:
Missus has just been stung by a wasp getting out of the car, not bad for the French alps on the 8th Jan.


it was the missus who was getting out of the car btw

She could be a White Anglo Saxon Protestant... rolling eyes


Last edited by And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports. on Fri 8-01-16 15:27; edited 1 time in total
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
davidof wrote:
it was the missus who was getting out of the car btw
Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Wasps love skiing. Actually they would probably board.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@davidof, but were you up the hill or down at home, bit of a difference in elevation, still barmy though!

Back down off the hill and now raining in the valley would imagine SL is circa 1,900 as temp here is +2.6
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
scotspikey wrote:
Wasps love skiing. Actually they would probably board.

wasps are utter pointless Fitzwilliams so probably more like a someone in a powder field on snow blades.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I got stung on the slopes last January, €10 for some lukewarm chips and an overly frothy 50cl of Kronenbourg.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
davidof wrote:
davidof wrote:
Missus has just been stung by a wasp getting out of the car, not bad for the French alps on the 8th Jan.


it was the missus who was getting out of the car btw

Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Lovely snow that was falling heavily yesterday morning all the way down to Le Chable turned into heavy rain later in the afternoon and it's still raining. Very warm, haven't yet needed to turn the heating in the apartment and one window has stayed opened for three weeks now. Up top snow is heavy, lower -very crusty. But at least it looks white everywhere Smile
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Looks like a reverse of fortunes next week. Drier colder air for the Uk. Stormy and wet in the alps !
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@davidof,
I hope your missus was wearing a helmet at the time? Otherwise and sadly, it's all her own fault....
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Does anyone have a link to a Val Thorens run? Snow-Forecast is suggesting -15 - -20 at resort level and just wanted to get a feel for whether it's actually accurate...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Compare and contrast - http://www.bergfex.com/val-thorens/wetter/prognose/
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@Peter S, it's mild and wet in both the UK and Alps now. Next week it will be cold in both the Alps and the UK.

00z GFS had 15 Jan as the day the ensembles diverged substantially 06z GFS keeps it cold till 17 Jan before the ensembles diverge.
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 Ski the Net with snowHeads
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Please let the Nordstau wePowder is mentioning come true! Snow still sucks here. Lots of resorts only half open (Nordkette hasn't even opened at all!), valley run into Schruns hasn't opened at all... Worst season since I've been out here, and a lot worse than last season now.
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