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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
My thermometer has a little stream of water coming out of it, I'm thinking icicle by the morning.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
pam w wrote:
Heavy rain here at 1550m too...


darn, looks like I've put the mokkers on the weather.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Not raining cats and dogs, just dogs out of the sky Laughing

Was incredibly light snow for a couple of hours, and temps here still below freezing -2.2

So like I often say 100km or so weather can be so different!
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and here's the front hitting western austria - snow / rain limit between 800 - 1400m, lower towards the east, accordign to wetter.at

http://www.wetter.at/wetter/wetterradar
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Am in Les Saisies picking up friends staying in town without a car, to come round for an apero. Absolutely foul. We've had a great deal of snow and the ploughs haven't kept pace. Huge piles of snow and slush everywhere and vehicles struggling with parking. Lots with chains. P1ssing with rain. Reckon Thierry avait raison.
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loads and loads of snow in Verbier...and all the way down to Le Chable (900m) too
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@pam w, 90km as the crow flies from Briancon to Les Saisies
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Weathercam wrote:
@pam w, 90km as the crow flies from Briancon to Les Saisies


Unfortunately there is no escape, tomorrow chez toi:-

pluie-neige 1700 m 2100 m
Iso 0°C 2200 m 2500 m

FL in the Maurienne, Isere ranges now around 2200 meters (various realtime sources: nivolog, meteo france, flowcapt). At least we added 15cm of new snow in the Chartreuse this morning at 1300 meters.
snow conditions
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Obeservations in the Jura - at 1677 metres, temps have risen from -2 at 11am to 0.8 now, westerly winds gusting up to 94kph....so here comes something.. There's been a decent amount of snow over the past few days, but still not quite enough for the rockier pistes to open. I'd expect full cover by next wednesday or so, assuming it doesn't all run down the mountain between tomorrow and sunday!
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@davidof, keep the faith, and wear Paramo Toofy Grin

Should have maybe gone up this afternoon for a thrash around rolling eyes
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Temperature (at 1800m) in Les Arcs didn't get much above 1 degree this afternoon, and I think the snow line was here or hereabouts. It got a bit sleety but compared to this morning, when it was snowing quite heavily, the increase in temperature came at about the same time as a decrease in precipitation (so perhaps that was a good thing). There was definitely a bit of a thaw this afternoon, looking at the water dripping off our roof.

On piste conditions tomorrow should be good, with the off-piste a bit claggy and continued high or marked risk (was quite windy today, so some slopes will be loaded with fresh, heavy snow on top of continued weak layers). Forecast is for a bit more snow tomorrow (another 20cm?) and relatively high zero isotherm (1800m).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Its tipping it down in PDS Sad up to very high after huge amount of snow overnight and this morning all the way to Morzine... such a shame as it was really getting good. Hope tomorrow not too bad.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Comborcière Les Arcs
Statut: en ligne
Altitude 2300 m
Mise à jour: Il y a 53 minutes
Enneigement: 103 cm
Température: -1 °C
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
davidof wrote:
pam w wrote:
Heavy rain here at 1550m too...


darn, looks like I've put the mokkers on the weather.


Don't worry you said we were looking at four days of rain below 2000m. Much of the morning it was snowing well below that ; ).
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
SLF's evening update.

A critical avalanche situation will be encountered in some regions

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN


"Observed weather on Thursday, 7.1.2016

Skies were overcast and over the course of the day, snowfall set in from the west, which became more intense during the afternoon. In the afternoon the snowfall level in western regions ascended from generally low altitudes to approximately 1500 m. In eastern regions, snowfall down to low lying areas continued until evening.

Fresh snow

By Thursday evening above approximately 1500 m, the following amounts of snowfall were registered:

- Valais not including Saas and Simplon regions: 15 to 30 cm
- western and central sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, as well as Saas and Simplon regions: 10 to 20 cm
- eastern sector of the northern flank of the Alps, Ticino, Grisons: only a few centimeters;
-on the southern flank of the Alps it remained dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between -1 °C in northwestern regions and - 5 °C in southern regions and in Grisons.

Wind

Winds in the Valais and on the northern flank of the Alps were westerly during the night, blowing predominantly at moderate strength. During the day, winds then shifted to southerly to southwesterly and were blowing at moderate to strong velocity in Lower Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps and in Grisons; in Upper Valais and in Ticino, at light to moderate strength. During the afternoon, winds again shifted to westerly.

Weather forecast through Friday, 8.1.2016

During the night a small amount of additional snowfall is anticipated in northeastern regions. During the day in western and northern regions, skies will frequently be overcast and light snowfall is expected to set in during the afternoon. The snowfall level is expected to ascend from low altitudes to nearly 2000 m.

In Ticino and Grisons, it is expected to be quite sunny.

Fresh snow

- Valais, northern flank of the Alps, northern Grisons: 5 to 10 cm
- in other regions, dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between 0 °C in western regions and - 5 °C in eastern regions.

Wind

At high altitudes in general and in the Prealps, westerly to southwesterly winds will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity, intensifying to storm strength during the afternoon. In other regions, winds will be light to moderate.

Outlook through Sunday, 10.1.2016

Over the weekend, conditions are expected to remain variable, accompanied by westerly to southwesterly winds. Repeated bouts of snowfall are anticipated, most of which will fall in western regions. The avalanche scenario will remain highly treacherous in western and northern regions. In eastern and southern regions, the danger level may well increase somewhat, depending on the amount and intensity of snowfall."
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Yep was snowing until lunch at 1300m


Then turned to sleet and eventually rain by about 4pm. Strong winds, soaked thru, time to toughen up
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Sorry to ask a question which I am sure has been asked hundreds of times before.

What does heavy rain do to fresh snow? Does it wash it away or does it help compact it and build a better base for more snow when the SL drops? Or something else entirely?
snow report
 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@langball, going to be grotty through to early next week. High winds, stormy, snow line going up and down, but as the shift takes place the jet will not be blasting straight into the western Alps. Much colder weather to come with snow to low levels.
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@nozawaonsen, Whats it looking like for austria (Soll in particular)? Going next weekend and looks ok at moment but v little base and hope not to much rain?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@nozawaonsen, seems to be panning out as called. I was surprised at how cold it felt up there, even as it began to rain. But as soon as you head down the mountain, by about 800m looked and felt autumnal, not a flake to be seen, car read +8. Am gonna need a few days to dry everything out, batten hatches, light fire, listen to funk and soul Cool
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@FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS, where there's very little snow a couple of days heavy rain can wash it away entirely. But where there's a decent base it's not too bad. Actually quite nice to ski on, though deeply unpleasant in heavy rain. Funk and soul preferable. If it wasn't going to get very cold and snow masses next week, I'd be concerned.
snow conditions
 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Weathercam, or even if you look out the window. But it does make you sound so much more tough and superior when you swear and swagger.


Well, you know what they say about the weather, "If you want to know what the weather is like, just look at the window." And you know what they also say about the weather? "If you want to know what the weather will be like in a few days, well, just wait a few days, and look out your damn window!!!" NehNeh

I suppose if you need to know the temp you will have to stick your head out the window though...


Classic El Nino set up for us PNW West Coast USA folks kicking in for early January. Which means nasty wet conditions for SoCal. They are getting pissed on, and good right now. But means decent conditions for folks headed to NorCal and Tahoe though. We will be dry and cool for the next week or so. Might be good conditions setting up for some of the more Southerly resorts like Taos, and Southern Utah ski areas.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Toadman wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
@Weathercam, or even if you look out the window. But it does make you sound so much more tough and superior when you swear and swagger.


Well, you know what they say about the weather, "If you want to know what the weather is like, just look out the window." And you know what they also say about the weather? "If you want to know what the weather will be like in a few days, well, just wait a few days, and look out your damn window!!!" NehNeh

I suppose if you need to know the temp you will have to stick your head out the window though...


Classic El Nino set up for us PNW West Coast USA folks kicking in for early January. Which means nasty wet conditions for SoCal. They are getting pissed on, and good right now. But means decent conditions for folks headed to NorCal and Tahoe though. We will be dry and cool for the next week or so. Might be good conditions setting up for some of the more Southerly resorts like Taos, and Southern Utah ski areas.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS wrote:
Sorry to ask a question which I am sure has been asked hundreds of times before.

What does heavy rain do to fresh snow? Does it wash it away or does it help compact it and build a better base for more snow when the SL drops? Or something else entirely?


remember that the rain is still very cold, often just above freezing even if the air temp is higher, so it is not putting a lot of energy into the snow so a bit of rain isn't too much of a problem, especially on piste where the snow is compact. Off piste it is not great for the quality and forms crusts but can stabilize an unstable snowpack when it refreezes.
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FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS wrote:
Sorry to ask a question which I am sure has been asked hundreds of times before.

What does heavy rain do to fresh snow? Does it wash it away or does it help compact it and build a better base for more snow when the SL drops? Or something else entirely?


How ironic. Local meteorologist just posted this comment on rain/snow pack effect this morning. Although comment relates to PNW snow pack, which is around 3 meters right not. But with fresh snow, it can compact and densify it.

The snow pack is much deeper than at any time last season. Even if we were to get a major warm Pineapple Express (PE), the snow pack will NOT melt away. I have investigated the effect on snowpack of every major PE in the last two decades and it just doesn’t work that way. PE’s melt very little of the snowpack, mainly consolidating the snowpack and absorbing the rainfall. Also, I’ve seen heavy rain, run off the top of the snowpack. Have you ever seen the shallow parallel channels on top of the snowpack after a big rain on snow event? They are called rilles – a good answer in some future Final Jeopardy. One more thing, to be clear, there is no PE in the forecast.
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@Toadman, well my experience of a PE in BC 11 seasons back was it did wash away most the snow, though there wasn't a 3m base. It warmed up by about 20 degrees and rained for days. Having said that I've experienced numerous, less serve, rain events and as said above doesn't do that much harm to compacted piste.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@Toadman, I think you missed the point.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
nozawaonsen wrote:
SLF's evening update.

A critical avalanche situation will be encountered in some regions

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN


"Observed weather on Thursday, 7.1.2016

Skies were overcast and over the course of the day, snowfall set in from the west, which became more intense during the afternoon. In the afternoon the snowfall level in western regions ascended from generally low altitudes to approximately 1500 m. In eastern regions, snowfall down to low lying areas continued until evening.

Fresh snow

By Thursday evening above approximately 1500 m, the following amounts of snowfall were registered:

- Valais not including Saas and Simplon regions: 15 to 30 cm
- western and central sectors of the northern flank of the Alps, as well as Saas and Simplon regions: 10 to 20 cm
- eastern sector of the northern flank of the Alps, Ticino, Grisons: only a few centimeters;
-on the southern flank of the Alps it remained dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between -1 °C in northwestern regions and - 5 °C in southern regions and in Grisons.

Wind

Winds in the Valais and on the northern flank of the Alps were westerly during the night, blowing predominantly at moderate strength. During the day, winds then shifted to southerly to southwesterly and were blowing at moderate to strong velocity in Lower Valais, on the northern flank of the Alps and in Grisons; in Upper Valais and in Ticino, at light to moderate strength. During the afternoon, winds again shifted to westerly.

Weather forecast through Friday, 8.1.2016

During the night a small amount of additional snowfall is anticipated in northeastern regions. During the day in western and northern regions, skies will frequently be overcast and light snowfall is expected to set in during the afternoon. The snowfall level is expected to ascend from low altitudes to nearly 2000 m.

In Ticino and Grisons, it is expected to be quite sunny.

Fresh snow

- Valais, northern flank of the Alps, northern Grisons: 5 to 10 cm
- in other regions, dry.

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m, between 0 °C in western regions and - 5 °C in eastern regions.

Wind

At high altitudes in general and in the Prealps, westerly to southwesterly winds will be blowing at moderate to strong velocity, intensifying to storm strength during the afternoon. In other regions, winds will be light to moderate.

Outlook through Sunday, 10.1.2016

Over the weekend, conditions are expected to remain variable, accompanied by westerly to southwesterly winds. Repeated bouts of snowfall are anticipated, most of which will fall in western regions. The avalanche scenario will remain highly treacherous in western and northern regions. In eastern and southern regions, the danger level may well increase somewhat, depending on the amount and intensity of snowfall."


Im glued to the Switzerland updates , 6 weeks off I know till we head off and a lot can change but one quick question.... where is the Jungfrau situated in relation to North, south, east, West regions ?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
The rain seems to be turning to snow as night is falling. It was horrible in Les Saisies earlier. We've had a lot of snow and the ploughs hadn't been keeping pace. Huge piles of snow, roads full of slush, cars stuck in snowy parking spaces. Pouring rain.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
davidof wrote:
FIRSTOFTHEGIANTS wrote:
Sorry to ask a question which I am sure has been asked hundreds of times before.

What does heavy rain do to fresh snow? Does it wash it away or does it help compact it and build a better base for more snow when the SL drops? Or something else entirely?


remember that the rain is still very cold, often just above freezing even if the air temp is higher, so it is not putting a lot of energy into the snow so a bit of rain isn't too much of a problem, especially on piste where the snow is compact. Off piste it is not great for the quality and forms crusts but can stabilize an unstable snowpack when it refreezes.


yep = latent energy of water to ice/snow makes skiing possible. A kg of water would have to be at almost 80°C to have enough energy to melt a kg of snow or ice. Similarly all that negative energy (lack of energy) in snow frozen overnight takes a fair bit of energy to melt the next day.

Was reading an article the other day about snow farming; somewhere in Switzerland I think they make some snow in spring and store it in a shaded valley over the summer covered in a foot or snow of bark. They only lose 20%! I guess it's just like the old ice stores before freezers were invented where the ice houses were dug in to the ground and insulated with straw.

(ice cools a drink not really because it is cold per se, but because it takes so much energy out of the drink to melt the ice)
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
North of Alpine ridge. Western alps.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Ain't physics great! Thanks all.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Some interesting thoughts from Matt Hugo on the general pattern change and the impact on the UK in particular.

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/topic/3-model-output-discussion-4th-january-2016-onwards/#comment-107
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So, everything that's poking its head up prematurely in the garden will succumb to frostbite. Ho hum.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Toadman, I think you missed the point.


Oh, I got the point, I just didn't refer to it in my post. IMO, somethings are better left ignored.
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Interesting "Inside Science" program on Radio 4 just now: El Nino Special
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b06tvm70#play
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
Some interesting thoughts from Matt Hugo on the general pattern change and the impact on the UK in particular.

http://www.ukweatherforecast.co.uk/topic/3-model-output-discussion-4th-january-2016-onwards/#comment-107



The coming cold spell in the Alps in the second half of January is sorely needed.

There is only about a month or so of proper cold weather left in much of the Alps before the Spring melt starts to arrive.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Whitegold,



I guess you are on the right. rolling eyes rolling eyes
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18:00 GFS seems to have given a nice little uptick for the Eastern Alps.

In desperate need. The most lying snow I've seen since summer was in September.
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@Gaza, indeed...

This is a rough idea of the snowfall over the next 8 days. Cleary over the next few days much of that will be at altitude (and the op run looked a bit inflated) especially in the west, but temperatures look set to fall steeply next week.

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