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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Chairlift drama in Tahoe, California:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-3386749/The-moment-65-tourists-rescued-ski-lift-left-stranded-2-HOURS-chair-plummeted-snow-Lake-Tahoe-resort.html

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@Whitegold, why are you posting random Daily Mail articles to the weather thread. First one maybe, second one less so...
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Pattern shift is building support. There's still quite a bit of spread, but the operational and control both going for a sustained period of cold weather from around 12 January.

Lech



Chamonix



ECM on the way out now.
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@nozawaonsen, what do you think are realistic snow figures for les contermines next week from monday. the squiggles are going mad rolling eyes Laughing Laughing
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@harrymac, no idea where les contermines is still less what squiggles are.
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So Meteo France sees FL at 2000 to 2400 meters tomorrow with rain to 2000 meters in the afternoon. This will cause purging of recent snow on known avalanche couloirs at the snowpack humidifies with slabs higher up the mountain. Avalanchemaggedon.
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@nozawaonsen, no need for sarcasm just asked?!
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@davidof, given how stormy it will be it looks like the freezing level could be all over the place. Haute Savoie and Isere seem to be looking at 1500m compared to 2000m in Savoie. Very strong winds as well. So quite a messy day all in all.

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/oisans/OPP15

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/mont-blanc/OPP03

http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-montagne/bulletin-avalanches/beaufortin/OPP05
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@Whitegold, you are just ever so 5 days out of date Puzzled rolling eyes
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harrymac wrote:
@nozawaonsen, no need for sarcasm just asked?!


The honest answer is that the range of options being offered by the ensembles show that it is not possible to have any idea of what a "realistic" figure for snowfall is for a week starting five days from now (if it ever were).
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@harrymac, if the ensembles are "all over the place" then the picture is uncertain. If you want a nice easy number look at snow-forecast and search for Les Contamines. LC is close to Chamonix so you might also look at Chamonix Meteo though they will give a range, not a single number.

For what it's worth LC generally has the best snow around - above the top of the gondola at any rate.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
@Whitegold, why are you posting random Daily Mail articles to the weather thread. First one maybe, second one less so...

I've just had a horrible thought. White(gold) get it!
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A great ECM tonight. Gets right in behind GFS for cold lasting for several days quite possibly more.

Produces some nice charts like this which would bode well for the southern Alps around 14/15 January if it verified.



And as mentioned earlier both GFS and ECM would bring much colder weather for the UK.

Interesting.

Stormy times ahead, but cold to follow.


http://youtube.com/v/eIcdwwr-7K4
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
TUNE Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
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@pam w, Thank you. how is Les saises? I was out there 8 years ago after my Dad passed on its a lovely place. Very Happy
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 Poster: A snowHead
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nozawaonsen wrote:
...would bring much colder weather for the UK.



That would be good for the garden - we really could do with a good sharp frost to remind the poor plants what season it is


Last edited by Poster: A snowHead on Wed 6-01-16 20:21; edited 1 time in total
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A good explanation on the general pattern by Matt Hugo (though with a UK focus).

And some thoughts from Liam Dutton on UK potential.

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/winter-coming-snow/9530
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This is WRF's take on where the precipitation will fall over the next five days.



Obviously some of that at lower altitudes will fall as rain, but clearly a lot at altitude in places accompanied by some strong winds.

Scotland too is going to see a lot of rain, but as temperatures fall next week there may be some respite.
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Given the amount of water running off the fields up here and the sub zero temps next week, there is potential for some hairy moments on the roads next week.

On the brighter side potential for some local skiing too perhaps as early as this weekend ?
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@Timberwolf, theres no need to post to get notified. At the bottom of the page is a little hyperlink "watch this topic for replies"


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 6-01-16 21:20; edited 1 time in total
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Still looks a bit dry in the Dollies... They need a change from this westerly pattern
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Matt Hugo highlights a very interesting comparison with November 2010. That pattern brought widespread disruption to large parts of the UK for a number of weeks.

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@red 27, er...
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@nozawaonsen, I would be interested in your opinion on the outlook for the Scottish areas?

The various snow forecasts seem to be quite widely different, which I presume means it is quite uncertain.

Looking at the ensembles for Cairngorm and "Aberdeenshire" (only one I could find for Glenshee) with my completely inexpert eye, it looks like there will be a band of heavy snow moving though tomorrow into the early hours of Friday, then it should be relatively decent weather Friday with more unsettled weather arriving later on Saturday, and probably getting quite cold into next week.

I think that Friday looks like the day to go skiing, and Glenshee looks like they will get most snow, assuming they can open (heavy snow overnight often means delayed opening at Glenshee).
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@bobmcstuff, like you say it looks pretty stormy there tomorrow and Glenshee looks like it could pick up a fair amount of snow. Friday also looks like the best chance of a relatively clear window for a few days. Worth prepping a road trip and making a call first thing?
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Whitegold wrote:
About 60% of the lifts are currently open. Chances are, it will up be up around 80-100% by the time you land in Feb.

But Jasna is no powder mecca (despite its famous freeride zones). It only averages about 200cm snowfall a season, which is less than half of a good resort in Austria, France or Switzerland.


Unfortunately it seems to be pretty well just artificial snow at the moment (which they apparently do well). I'm sure all the lifts will be up and running by the time we're there, but we need real snow for the off-piste, and plenty of it, in the next few weeks. I've not been there before and will be interested in seeing what it's like. It's the Ski Club's first year there so it's a bit of an adventure for them, too. Just don't know where it gets its snow 'from' - surely can't just be what's left over once the south westerly storms have finished dumping on the Alps?
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@nozawaonsen, Cheers! Clearly my ensemble reading isn't awful. Fortunately I'm only 2 hours away in Aberdeen so it's quite an easy decision! Normally it's only 1.5 hours but the bridge at Braemar has been damaged so you have to go round the southern route.
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So with the predicted cold temps after the warm spell.... what does this mean for the western alps snow conditions?? Blue ice or chalky packed powder? Is the predicted really cold weather a bit meh or is it something to excited about? Give me the run down on its effect on the snow and or what you think the snow will be like come 16th of jan at paradiski. Thanks heaps!! Very Happy Very Happy
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@angusert4, should be jolly good.
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So perhaps things are looking up for the Dolomites later this month? Fingers crossed!
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red 27 wrote:
Still looks a bit dry in the Dollies... They need a change from this westerly pattern


The latest Bergfex map indicates some action in NE Italy on Monday next. Friuli & Julian Alps have some very bright colours, though I'm sure that could move around. I'm guessing something is being driven up & under out of the Med for this one. Sometimes an active system gets trapped in that corner with spectacular results for the Dollies & Osttirol.

http://www.bergfex.com/schneevorhersage/?t=0_144
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Gaza wrote:
Matt Hugo highlights a very interesting comparison with November 2010. That pattern brought widespread disruption to large parts of the UK for a number of weeks.



I remember it well, I had a Swiss friend visiting at the time. Oh how he laughed.
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Gaza wrote:
Matt Hugo highlights a very interesting comparison with November 2010. That pattern brought widespread disruption to large parts of the UK for a number of weeks.




It's already causing chaos in Holland. They are skating on the streets on inches of black ice.
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Could this be the year for Elfstedentocht?
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This is les Houches. Mid day today. Note the hats on the high mountains and the mares tail clouds. Two hours later it was snowing.
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Ashamed to admit that I'm a bit of a meteo muppet... so what is the outlook for Via Lattea over the next couple of weeks....anyone? Thanks
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J2R wrote:
Whitegold wrote:
About 60% of the lifts are currently open. Chances are, it will up be up around 80-100% by the time you land in Feb.

But Jasna is no powder mecca (despite its famous freeride zones). It only averages about 200cm snowfall a season, which is less than half of a good resort in Austria, France or Switzerland.


Unfortunately it seems to be pretty well just artificial snow at the moment (which they apparently do well). I'm sure all the lifts will be up and running by the time we're there, but we need real snow for the off-piste, and plenty of it, in the next few weeks. I've not been there before and will be interested in seeing what it's like. It's the Ski Club's first year there so it's a bit of an adventure for them, too. Just don't know where it gets its snow 'from' - surely can't just be what's left over once the south westerly storms have finished dumping on the Alps?



It's one of the best resorts in central Europe, but still fairly small.

It is located quite a long way from the storms that come in off the Atlantic, Med, Black Sea and Russia / Siberia. Can give dry snow as a result, but not often much of it.
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luigi wrote:
red 27 wrote:
Still looks a bit dry in the Dollies... They need a change from this westerly pattern


The latest Bergfex map indicates some action in NE Italy on Monday next. Friuli & Julian Alps have some very bright colours, though I'm sure that could move around. I'm guessing something is being driven up & under out of the Med for this one. Sometimes an active system gets trapped in that corner with spectacular results for the Dollies & Osttirol.

http://www.bergfex.com/schneevorhersage/?t=0_144


I hope so.....I am obsessed with this thread...we travel out to Madonna Di Campiglio on the 16th
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darbyrw wrote:
luigi wrote:
red 27 wrote:
Still looks a bit dry in the Dollies... They need a change from this westerly pattern


The latest Bergfex map indicates some action in NE Italy on Monday next. Friuli & Julian Alps have some very bright colours, though I'm sure that could move around. I'm guessing something is being driven up & under out of the Med for this one. Sometimes an active system gets trapped in that corner with spectacular results for the Dollies & Osttirol.

http://www.bergfex.com/schneevorhersage/?t=0_144


I hope so.....I am obsessed with this thread...we travel out to Madonna Di Campiglio on the 16th


Some pretty serious action over the next few days in that region. I'm heading over to Madonna for 2 days that week. Reckon it will be fantastic by then, but very, very cold.
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Tricky few days coming up. A lot of stormy weather over the next five or six days. The snowline will be quite high this afternoon (looks like between 1500-2000m at times in the western Alps). Similarly on Saturday and Monday, but much lower, below 1000m on Monday evening dropping to 500m on Tuesday.

A lot of snow looks like it will fall over the next few days primarily on the northern side and at the western end (see below for an idea), but it should push east and south especially early next week. Wind speeds look very high later today and Monday, but will generally be quite high.

With this much snow falling at altitude and stormy winds the Avalanche risk will rise considerably in affected resorts. Expect disruption and closures as people try to manage the risk in resort.


Next week looks likely to be the coldest of the season so far. How long the cold spell lasts remains unclear. More snow at the end of the week may well be on the cards too.

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