 Poster: A snowHead
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| Piemonster wrote: |
I took an avalanche safety course a couple of years back.
In which it was stated that taking the course makes you statistically more likely to get avalanched. |
It is a dichotomy - that's welsh btw.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof, yes, I understand that, and it's for the same reason that more people get caught near the piste: frequency with which you ski off piste. Some categories of snow pro spend a high proportion of their time off piste, so are more likely to be taken by a slide.
The point I'm trying to understand is whether travelling further from the piste makes the snow safer. I don't think it does, but the report of HAT's talk raised a question for me.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@rob@rar, I can't see how it would?
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @rob@rar, I can't see how it would? |
I guess with a higher number of skiers skiing near the piste there might be a higher proportion of accidents caused by slides being triggered by other skiers (as I believe was the case in Val d'Isere yesterday), but I can't understand how the snowpack itself would be more dangerous.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@rob@rar, my thinking was that "side" pistes are often pretty compacted (and nice and bumpy) and so more stable.
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@under a new name, yes, I think that can often be the case. One way of avoiding a weak layer caused by lots of surface hoar is to compact it until it's a bump field!
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Understand from the Met Office (part of my job) that the forecast trend is for a continuation of wet and unsettled weather in the UK from around 16 January to the end of the month.
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| langball wrote: |
@nozawaonsen, hope you're right....was looking at wunderground, snowforecast, yr and icyblasts calling for rain at 1600, FL's 2000
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If it's "calling for rain at 1600" why do you say heavy rain from 2000m? The freezing level and snow line are quite different.
@Feast, not sure if you are referring to my comment about a potential shift in UK weather pattern? If so would be interested to know which Met Office product you are referring to? The pattern shift has only started to come into focus in the last few days with the UK being on the marginal end of it. Today is the strongest signal I've seen across all the models.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I'm in trouble now.....sorry I was a bit lazy there, please don't give me lines
WU is saying rain at 1300.
SF is saying rain at 1600, with a FL 2000-2300 thurs to sat
YR is saying rain in the village 1200
Icy has FL 2000-2400
So not much evidence of rain at 2000  , but some pretty high FL's thrown in
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For those interested in exactly what Henry said it's the 34min mark on the video linked above. He mentions avoiding slopes greater than 30 degrees, and steep areas "next to the pistes", which have "caught and killed many"
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Feast, not sure if you are referring to my comment about a potential shift in UK weather pattern? If so would be interested to know which Met Office product you are referring to? The pattern shift has only started to come into focus in the last few days with the UK being on the marginal end of it. Today is the strongest signal I've seen across all the models. |
The BBC Weather for the Week ahead that is currently on iPlayer is supporting a significant cooling with drier conditions in the UK from next week. It also showed that high pressure is building over the artic and that supports the suggestion of much colder weather as it pushes south.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@langball, thanks.
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Chamonix meteo forecasting snow down to 1500 and then 1600 over the next few days. Not too bad. colder today; quite a lot of snow cannons operating in Les Saisies and Notre Dame de Bellecombe. 
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You know it makes sense.
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@nozawaonsen, on a tele con with the Met Office and Environment Agency this morning the pattern for a colder drier period from mid to end of month was suggested. There was a counter argument that whilst there is a trend towards a colder drier spell in the UK from 9 Jan to 16 Jan, that the UK would return to a pattern of more showery weather from mid to end of month.
I am not sure which product they were using. I will find out this afternoon.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| langball wrote: |
| For those interested in exactly what Henry said it's the 34min mark on the video linked above. He mentions avoiding slopes greater than 30 degrees, and steep areas "next to the pistes", which have "caught and killed many" |
Avalanche "science" is clearly still mostly guesswork and gutfeel, but there are a few quantitative pointers.
Statistically, most major avalanches in the French Alps happen after midday in the afternoon on 25-degree-plus slopes that face northeast, north or east.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Just posting so i make sure i get notified of any updates. Thanks to all of those sharing their knowledge and info on this thread.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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I think the point is the fact that they are next to the piste makes them more accessible to less experienced skiers who may have a false sense of security.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@langball, you gotta be from Cork with a handle like that........
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@BAJJ, haha, sussed, but nowadays I'm practically savoyard, like. What about you?
The amateur hour models I follow just increased monday/tuesday snowfall estimates....60+cm at 1600
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With rain forecast to low lying resorts in NE Austria at weekend do we expect the rain to help consolidate what little base is around, or is it likely to be a wash out? SF is predicting, and only predicting moderate rain (13.0mm) at 1300m in Ellmau. Be nice to see that FL drop as the front moves in and turn to snow, but the forecast doesn't currently look like that'll happen. 
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| Quote: |
PBJ
super-snowHead
Posts: 447
Location: Cirencester
I think the point is the fact that they are next to the piste makes them more accessible to less experienced skiers who may have a false sense of security
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I expect it is down to %'s.
If a top skier jumps out of a helicopter onto a mountain and ski's down the side he will probably be ok.
If 1 average skier did the same they would probably not be ok.
If 25,000 average skiers skied within 100 metres of a piste some will likely have an accident.
If 25,000 average skiers jumped out of helicopter I expect several hundred would come a cropper.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| @Feast, thanks. Misunderstood thought you were suggesting that in your conversation Met Office was saying no change in pattern at all which would have been slight surprise. Certainly no idea whether it will be sustained beyond mid month. |
My mis-communication, not yours.
They certainly have doubts if this spell will be sustained beyond mid-month.
Thanks for the Brighton ensemble
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@langball, Cork born and bred, Kinsale now, after years of Austrian adventures am making my first trip to France, VT at the end of the month.
Am envious, I would love to live in the mountains but she who must be obeyed isn't having any of it...
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Apparently we have a 90% snow risk next week, yay! We've only had one overnight dusting of snow and three frosts so far this winter, not to mention 3 times as much rain as normal.
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You know it makes sense.
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Snowing at 1550m in Brev now
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| langball wrote: |
| For those interested in exactly what Henry said it's the 34min mark on the video linked above. He mentions avoiding slopes greater than 30 degrees, and steep areas "next to the pistes", which have "caught and killed many" |
A case in point being the Santons avalanche yesterday on the closed Santons blue. Seems like a group remote triggered the slide and of course the Santons is a terrain trap being a gulley. Victim under 150cm of snow and no beacon.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| pam w wrote: |
| Chamonix meteo forecasting snow down to 1500 and then 1600 over the next few days. Not too bad. colder today; quite a lot of snow cannons operating in Les Saisies and Notre Dame de Bellecombe. |
It is currently snowing at 1000 meters here in the Isere.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yrs, it was cold today. But a few very mild days on the way.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@pam w, to be followed by a few much colder ones.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Here's SLF's take on the weather for Switzerland.
"On Thursday morning in the western regions, snowfall is expected to set in, accompanied by strong velocity winds. During the afternoon, snowfall is anticipated on the northern flank of the Alps and in Valais which during certain spells will be heavy. In Grisons and above all else on the southern flank of the Alps, only a small amount of snowfall is anticipated, or it will remain dry. The snowfall level is expected to ascend from approximately 700 m in the early morning hours to altitudes approaching 1500 m during the afternoon.
Fresh snow
By later in the afternoon above 2000 m, the following amounts of fresh fallen snow are expected:
- Lower Valais, northern sector of Alpine Ridge from Chablais to the Grimsel, 20 to 40 cm
- remaining sectors of northern flank of the Alps, 15 to 30 cm
- southern Upper Valais, northern Grisons and Samnaun, as well as northern Ticino, 5 to 15 cm
- elsewhere, only a few centimeters, or it will remain dry.
Temperature
At midday at 2000 m, between -1 °C in northwestern regions and - 5 °C in Grisons and in southern regions.
Wind
During the night, westerly winds blowing at light to moderate strength.
During the day in the north and in high alpine regions, westerly winds blowing at strong velocity, intermittently reaching storm strength.
Outlook through Saturday, 9.1.2016
On Thursday night, the snowfall is expected to come to an end. On Friday and Saturday, conditions will remain variable. Intermittent snowfall in northern and western regions is anticipated above 1200 m. In southern regions it is expected to remain dry, for the most part, and partially sunny. The avalanche danger may will increase somewhat on Thursday evening. In outlying terrain away from the secured ski runs, conditions remain treacherous in northern and western regions. In eastern and southern regions, the avalanche danger is not expected to change significantly."
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I've got an off-piste holiday booked for next month (7th) in Jasna, Slovakia (SCGB course), and I'm getting increasingly nervous that there won't be any off-piste to speak of. I appreciate the Tatras are somewhat outside the areas normally discussed here, but does anyone on here know what weather systems affect the snow there? E.g., if it's good in Austria is it likely to be good there, or is the weather completely separate?
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| J2R wrote: |
| I've got an off-piste holiday booked for next month (7th) in Jasna, Slovakia (SCGB course), and I'm getting increasingly nervous that there won't be any off-piste to speak of. I appreciate the Tatras are somewhat outside the areas normally discussed here, but does anyone on here know what weather systems affect the snow there? E.g., if it's good in Austria is it likely to be good there, or is the weather completely separate? |
About 60% of the lifts are currently open. Chances are, it will up be up around 80-100% by the time you land in Feb.
But Jasna is no powder mecca (despite its famous freeride zones). It only averages about 200cm snowfall a season, which is less than half of a good resort in Austria, France or Switzerland.
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12z GFS has gone even colder for the second half of January across much of Europe. At this stage it still remains unclear whether this will last for a few days or if it is something more long lasting.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Whitegold wrote: |
| "...as employers wait to see if snow will fall... |
Er...
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FAQ
