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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@mystyc, there can be too much snow but for piste skiing the main problem in much of the alps is still too little. It takes more than 2 or 3 days of modest snowfall to open up all the pistes in a big area and contrary to some rumours a good many French pistes are below 2000m and were grass until very recently. It's still warm, with no chance of snow making at lower altitudes now that December 's inversions are history. And many pistes have no snow cannons. people about to come to French resorts have incomparably better conditions than Christmas and New Year with a lot more snow to come so shouldn't be whingeing. Evil or Very Mad
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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did you really say
Quote:

Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency?

The Italian's must be the most in-efficient race known to mankind
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
not when it comes to snow making......
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Plus the Italians in that part of the Dolomites are more Germanic than Italian
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gwatts10 wrote:
did you really say
Quote:

Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency?

The Italian's must be the most in-efficient race known to mankind


World's 6th biggest manufacturing nation.
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scotspikey wrote:
not when it comes to snow making......


and providing good food on the mountain...
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
was looking for the weather thread but seem to have stumbled into the casual racism thread.
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Think it might be something to do with man power, in that many pisteurs may have not been taken on at the start of the season simply because they were not required.

I'm not too sure of the actual terminology, but akin to our zero hours contract etc, it has been mentioned on here before.

Would make a lot of sense.

There was a rumour flying around that if the snow had not come, the resort would have shut down for Jan opening up again for the hols, taking those people on, maybe there was a degree of economic logic to that in keeping things going on the bear minimum.

That said there are more lifts and pistes opening here all be it slowly.
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I tried not to rise to the bait, as my sister is now a Gallucci, however....off to Selva in 5 weeks, and cannot wait. All my best holidays have been in Italy - not just skiing. Never had any efficiency problems at all. A titanic effort to sort out 70 to 80% of the Dolomite ski area. All credit to the Italians, even if a lot of German is spoken there. (Was Austrian once) snowHead
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Looks like it will feel very different around mid month with temperatures a lot colder than they are now.

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That's -8 at lunch time? Hmmmm cold beer.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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gwatts10 wrote:
did you really say
Quote:

Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency?

The Italian's must be the most in-efficient race known to mankind


They're not Italian in the Dolomites though, they're Tirolean wink

It's still Sud Tirol, and it's not that long since it was actually part of Austria. Most locals still speak German (occasionally Ladin) as a first language (at least in Val Gardena region), all the towns have German names too (Val Gardena = Wolkenstein), official and legal documents legally have to be available in German as well as Italian, the locals enjoy many rights in Austria (guaranteed places at Austrian universities etc), and as they're under Austrian 'protection' (such a mighty military force Laughing) taxes gathered in Sud Tirol are only allowed to be spent in Sud Tirol - not the rest of Italy.

The mix of Austrian beer and Italian food is $$$ though wink
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Well for what's worth my "digital" thermometer is reading minus 6 here at 1,400m that's the coldest it's been at this time of day since we've been out here!

Sky is around 3/8's

And interestingly enough the Circuit de Glace have all their main events in the month of January just 500m from me!
http://www.circuitserrechevalier.com/evenements-glisse.htm


Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much on Tue 5-01-16 20:36; edited 1 time in total
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
clarky999 wrote:
gwatts10 wrote:
did you really say
Quote:

Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency?

The Italian's must be the most in-efficient race known to mankind


They're not Italian in the Dolomites though, they're Tirolean wink

It's still Sud Tirol, and it's not that long since it was actually part of Austria. Most locals still speak German (occasionally Ladin) as a first language (at least in Val Gardena region), all the towns have German names too (Val Gardena = Wolkenstein), official and legal documents legally have to be available in German as well as Italian, the locals enjoy many rights in Austria (guaranteed places at Austrian universities etc), and as they're under Austrian 'protection' (such a mighty military force Laughing) taxes gathered in Sud Tirol are only allowed to be spent in Sud Tirol - not the rest of Italy.

The mix of Austrian beer and Italian food is $$$ though wink


Northern Italy, Milan and above, is one of the richest places on Earth.

Central and southern Italy. They have nice food and weather.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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leggyblonde wrote:
The Dolomites snow making capablities has been discussed before and is certainly the main contributor. The Dolomites have better snow making conditions (drier air) and have invested large amounts in reservoirs, cannons etc. as they get much less natural snow.
L2A is also rockier and so will require a larger base before pistes are safe.

Yes, somewhere like Cortina (Italy) averages 200-400cm snowfall a year. Val d'Isere (France) gets about 400-600cm a year. Italy needs more snowmaking. But France is getting drier due to global warming -- Val gets far less snowfall than it used to -- so they will also eventually need to install more snowguns.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I crunched all the Meteo France per massif data (average snowfall from automatic stations and ground observers) to draw a map of recent snowfall, darker is more



details here: http://pistehors.com/where-the-recent-snow-has-fallen-24200411.htm
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Whitegold wrote:
clarky999 wrote:
gwatts10 wrote:
did you really say
Quote:

Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency?

The Italian's must be the most in-efficient race known to mankind


They're not Italian in the Dolomites though, they're Tirolean wink

It's still Sud Tirol, and it's not that long since it was actually part of Austria. Most locals still speak German (occasionally Ladin) as a first language (at least in Val Gardena region), all the towns have German names too (Val Gardena = Wolkenstein), official and legal documents legally have to be available in German as well as Italian, the locals enjoy many rights in Austria (guaranteed places at Austrian universities etc), and as they're under Austrian 'protection' (such a mighty military force Laughing) taxes gathered in Sud Tirol are only allowed to be spent in Sud Tirol - not the rest of Italy.

The mix of Austrian beer and Italian food is $$$ though wink


Northern Italy, Milan and above, is one of the richest places on Earth.

Central and southern Italy. They have nice food and weather.


But it wasn't always that way... 50 years ago it was poor, but through astute organization combined with conservative business acumen, they indeed have turned into one of the wealthiest areas - all very quietly, and quite under the radar screen.
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@davidof, good effort!
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rob@rar wrote:
@davidof, good effort!


+1
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The sad events in Val d'Isere today are a stark reminder of the way the risks rise following heavy snowfall.

The Avalanche risk will rise again later this week and next in many places as strong winds and heavy snow arrive. There will be more accidents.

@davidof, has put up an account of what happened which is worth reading

http://pistehors.com/one-dead-and-two-seriously-injuried-in-val-disere-avalanches-24200227.htm

As has Henry at HAT

http://www.henrysavalanchetalk.com/two-avalanche-accidents-val-disere-today

EDIT and @Steve Angus, has a useful account on his thread too.


Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Wed 6-01-16 0:30; edited 1 time in total
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davidof wrote:
I crunched all the Meteo France per massif data (average snowfall from automatic stations and ground observers) to draw a map of recent snowfall, darker is more



details here: http://pistehors.com/where-the-recent-snow-has-fallen-24200411.htm


That's really cool!
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Winds in the west look very strong on Thursday and Friday. I would anticipate a fair amount of disruption.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
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clarky999 wrote:


That's really cool!


Thanks, Darkest blue is over a meter of fresh snow in 6 days, lightest blue, 20cm. These are average depths for the range. As has been pointed out different valleys can have different climates, some drier, some wetter. So if you want the deepest powder, head for the Bauges... only it is not that high so you maybe want somewhere else.
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@clarky999,

That's awesome work!
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sparkzter, always good to give congratulations, but if you look carefully you will see davidof did the awesome work.

(clarky999 is an excellent bloke, but he was just quoting davidof's picture - and i do apologise if i have clarky999's gender wrong: so easy on a forum like this Embarassed )
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And in the third chapter... It got colder.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
The Dutch site always has this kind of snow map standard:

http://www.wintersporters.nl/weersneeuw/sneeuwverwachting
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
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So far this winter we have had two dominant patterns in the Alps.

First off much of December was of course mild and dry with high pressure anchored over Europe.

More recently with the block removed the jet has roared into the western Alps with stormy, mild and wet weather. There's a few more days of this to come. Both these patterns have had a very + NAO.

But as we approach mid month a further change looks likely with much colder weather arriving next week. Snowfall on Monday and Tuesday looks like dropping to low levels and further cold is now being suggested by all the major models. This will likely mean less heavy snow, but also much colder temperatures than we have had this season at least for a few days. And with a switch to a -NAO it opens the possibility of more snow fall in the southern Alps as we progress.

Schladming



Courchevel



Likely to mean colder and drier weather for the UK too.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Thanks david and noza as usual for great charts and links.....I listened to Henrys avalanche talk and learnt that one of the most dangerous places for triggering an avalanche is just off the edge of a piste.

Weather wise looks like heavy rain below 2000 for friday, then heavy snow mon / tues. Henry also mentioned that it can be good for the safety of pistes if we get rain that then refreezes and acts as a bind on the weaker sub layers.
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Yikes! the temperatures being forecast for the week I'm away. Daily high of -13! Skullie
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
langball wrote:

Weather wise looks like heavy rain below 2000 for friday


This seems too high to me.
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@langball, is it more dangerous, or is that where more people get caught?
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@nozawaonsen, hope you're right....was looking at wunderground, snowforecast, yr and icyblasts calling for rain at 1600, FL's 2000

@rob@rar, both, he said he has seen loads of people get caught in avalanches just off the edge of pistes. It's briefly discussed at the end of the video, probably 35-40min mark. He specifically mentioned it for novices and such who are normally on piste but starting to explore the off piste areas. Maybe due to the fact that you have a safe compressed area (piste) meeting an unsafe loose area.
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@langball, I can understand more people getting caught near the piste because more people are skiing there, perhaps including getting caught in a slide triggered by someone else. I've never heard of a risk factor related to piste/off-piste boundary, but I bow to HAT's experience. Instinctively I assume that snowpack stability is the same near or far from the piste, all other factors being the same.
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Quote:

he said he has seen loads of people get caught in avalanches just off the edge of pistes

@langball, that's very interesting in the way that anything that seems wrong or counter-intuitive should be. My first thought would be that "these days" pistes - at least "new" ones - would surely be planned and constructed to minimise maintenance - i.e. you don't want to "install" a new piste in an area that you know would be a bvgger to keep safe. "Old" pistes probably not thought about as much (who knows?).

Interesting. I wonder if there's anything published about it.
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@under a new name, I've been taught that on courses I've done (although "close to" is perhaps within 100m, rather than just off the edge of the piste). Makes sense to me as that's the area where more people are going to be skiing, including a higher proportion who do not have much understanding of snowpack stability.
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rob@rar wrote:
including a higher proportion who do not have much understanding of snowpack stability.


Remember that the majority of people injured or killed by avalanches are experienced, frequently with some or a lot of avalanche training. A quarter of the fatal incidents in France last year involved professionals (guides, instructors etc).


That doesn't mean what Langball quoted is wrong.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
I took an avalanche safety course a couple of years back.

In which it was stated that taking the course makes you statistically more likely to get avalanched.
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Quote:

Darkest blue is over a meter of fresh snow in 6 days, lightest blue, 20cm.


Looks like the next dump is giving a similar distribution. The Les Contamines resort forecast now calls for "neige forte" from this afternoon until Friday night! That is quite a dump if it happens.
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by the way @davidof, love the map
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