 Poster: A snowHead
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Sterling is looking very attractive as inflation starts to grow, putting pressure on UK interest rates. The BoE have already said they will react very quickly to contain it below 2.5%.
That the UK and US are so exposed to potential inflation makes their currencies under valued against such a strong euro. Eurozone rates will not need to rise to stem inflation (they cannot do so in individual countries, inflation must be controlled by taxation and money supply) as the inflation prospects for Europe as a whole remain low.
Whether Sterling will return to €1.45 again, soon, is unlikely. That the euro, is will continue to slide as money leaves its safe haven for better return on interest rates, is likely.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Broken above 1.13 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| thefatcontroller wrote: |
| Broken above 1.13 |
the $ is kicking some Euro butt too, almost 1 % up at the moment
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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And from someone who has been saying it for over 20 years... Well he hasn't bought one for 23, so its safe to say he's been saying it for that long.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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oh well, that didn't last long, did it 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Boredsurfing wrote: |
| oh well, that didn't last long, did it |
It's risen 3% in a month and there is no reason why this shouldn't continue until its in the 1.20s. It will be at around 1.15 by Christmas.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Euro taking bit of a bashing in early trading
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Public Borrowing up and Retail sales up one balances out the other 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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rayscoops, bashing
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Turns out we got a rate of 1.08 for our season passes this year - marginally better than last year I think.
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You know it makes sense.
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| bar shaker wrote: |
| Sterling is looking very attractive as inflation starts to grow, putting pressure on UK interest rates..... |
How do you reckon the unwinding of QE will effect future interest rates? QE and a tightening of ms4 have to be taken hand in hand. Any increase in interest rates before QE has been unwound will only exacerbate inflation problems. Mortgage trackers will increase ( going from 0.5 to 1.0 will be a 100% increase), most public sector pay increases, annuities, state pensions, rail fares, etc etc are based on RPI. Any control based on marginal increase of RPI will put the entire country in recession for a good few years. If they need to unwind QE after this, they won't be able to do it until something around 2017/2018. They can't leave that amount of cash lying around for that long..... it will lead to inflation. If they try to unwind QE first, it will look like a fire sale, BoE will lose a large proportion of the 200 billion they have chucked in so far and the recession will carry on or double dip depending on what happens in the next month or two. If they stop adding to QE and hold rates for a year or two, they might be able to avoid a double dip, but STG will look risky in comparison to skiing blacks on one leg with no skis. The flip side is that if STG gets the poo-poo kicked out of it and we have a high inflation rate, exports will become very attractive and the net debt of the UK will be eroded by inflation. Am I the only one seeing that the only way forward for any party in power is devalued STG and rampant inflation?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Thornyhill wrote: |
| bar shaker wrote: |
| Sterling is looking very attractive as inflation starts to grow, putting pressure on UK interest rates..... |
The flip side is that if STG gets the poo-poo kicked out of it and we have a high inflation rate, exports will become very attractive and the net debt of the UK will be eroded by inflation. Am I the only one seeing that the only way forward for any party in power is devalued STG and rampant inflation? |
Every UK government has done exactly this after every recession in modern times. Inflation will raise the tax take and erode the debt value at the same time, so its a win win for everyone... except those that have savings or pensions.
The inflation pressure is there but maybe over stated. A lot of the QE expenditure went off shore. The money is not washing around in High Street, GB and is not leading to high demand for goods, through increased ability to afford. Inflation pressure will come from factory gate price rises in Jan to March. Companies have been assaulted by rising borrowing costs (SMEs are typically paying 6-8% over base for their overdrafts now), rising business rates and rising fuel costs. Many companies cannot cut costs further and cannot survive on current incomes. They must increase prices.
The way round this for any chancellor, as all in modern times have found, is to recalibrate how inflation is measured. The basket of goods is frequently being changed and will be changed again to suit the chancellor of the time.
Whether interest rates will remain low for long is open to debate. Rampant inflation will damage the governments ability to borrow and, boy, does this country need to borrow. A reduction in borrowing requirement is not no longer needing to borrow, its a case of not needing to take on so much additional debt this month. I think the next 5 years will see headline inflation of around 3-5% but underlying inflation of 5-10% and interest rates around 3%.
The problem with looking for a bright side to a weak pound in exporters is that we make very little that can go abroad. How many people do you know who do make things that are sold abroad?
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Poster: A snowHead
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| bar shaker wrote: |
| The problem with looking for a bright side to a weak pound in exporters is that we make very little that can go abroad. How many people do you know who do make things that are sold abroad? |
That's a meme that has more currency (excuse the pun) than it deserves.
There's also the export of services to consider. That covers me, and I can tell you I've racked up plenty of air miles in 2009 exploiting the weak pound. More than half our customers account in something other sterling (including some with a presence in the UK who pay us in sterling).
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| laundryman wrote: |
| There's also the export of services to consider. That covers me, and I can tell you I've racked up plenty of air miles in 2009 exploiting the weak pound. |
Same here. Haven't done a contract for a UK customer for over 2 years.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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laundryman, RobW,
I live in Gloucestershire where with 40 mins we have Europes largest Honda plant, Ultra, Messier Dowty, QinetiQ, the list is long and could go on. Most of it is hight tech and knowlege based but lots and lots of export going on in this neck on the woods!!!!!!!!!!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Most of my friends who are in export services are in banking or services to banking (such as specialist software) and almost all work for US or Canadian companies, with only one working for a UK bank.
The Honda plant is, I understood, an assembly plant. Bits of cars are made in other countries, imported and delivered to the plant for final assembly. Its good that its here and not somewhere else, but its not like true manufacturing... making high value products from cheap raw materials. In Chelmsford, where I live, we have BAe Systems who export all over the world and do make things from raw materials. Its very high value products too, but companies like BAe are a rarity now as inflation made us uncompetitive in the 70s and our major industries (cars, ships, aircraft) couldn't sell their wares or win non domestic orders. Those industries went to countries with a cheaper labour force or those with a labour force that cost the same but was better educated and less militant.
None of which has anything to do with sterling's prospect over the next 6-8 weeks 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Nick Dawes wrote: |
| Turns out we got a rate of 1.08 for our season passes this year - marginally better than last year I think. |
Did even better, 1.11 and a bit.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Dubai has probably now wrecked any chance of the pound being north of 1.10 for quite some time.
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Didn't see Dubai coming. Saw a lot of other things that didn't happen, but Dubai World being skint? No chance. I haven't been paying enough attention to the Dubai World cash cow to work out what it means, but given a days worth of info, I think it will more than likely mean the dreaded double dip. The only people who owe UK PLC more than Dubai World are......... Gordon and Alistair - Gedwair.... Sadly Jedward are more talented
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My theory is that Abu Dhabi has temporarily pulled the plug on Dubai to teach its brash (and oil-less) neighbour a lesson.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I think the title of this thread needs an overhaul, until Mr Brown leaves No. 10. 
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| bar shaker wrote: |
| Dubai has probably now wrecked any chance of the pound being north of 1.10 for quite some time. |
The £ has helped manufacturers become competitive - the manufacturing company I work for has just sent output to Eastern Europe. All helps our employees stay employed.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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saw-25, I put in £500 to see what I'd get. Very depressing
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| Dypcdiver wrote: |
| I think the title of this thread needs an overhaul, until Mr Brown leaves No. 10. |
I duno, in my eternally optimistic world it seems OK. But as I have now been down-sized from a MegaSnowhead to only a SuperSnowhead by Mr Admin, what do I know.
But here is my prediction for the future (you read it here 1st)
Very soon an extremely unimaginative photo editor of a tabloid rag will put up a photo of Brown and Darling with a cut-n-pasted Jedward hairdo. As for the currency rates, who knows ?
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You know it makes sense.
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I'm now reaching the end of the €5000 bought at 1.23... now facing a much harsher reality this year 
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Scarpa, . That was an astute purchase.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Checked my bank statements last night. ON the same date (Nov 3rd), I received a rate of 1.08 from Barclays (debit card), and 1.114 from Nationwide (debit card), proof if any was needed that the Nationwide one gives the best rates.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Helen Beaumont, It was actually my Dads for his trips but he bought extra so I could buy from him when I went... Awwww... bless him
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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well the Euro has been hit hard today against Dollar (up 1.2%) and Sterling (up 1.1%) so far !!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I have finally realised that there are less costly ways of making a money transfer to my french bank a/c than through Lloyds TSB - any recommendations from you more experienced intenational guys about a reliable and good value organisation to handle this for me please?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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pam w, thanks for that. my searching only showed a 2004 thread.
Last edited by You'll need to Register first of course. on Mon 7-12-09 15:24; edited 1 time in total
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| Helen Beaumont wrote: |
| Nick Dawes wrote: |
| Turns out we got a rate of 1.08 for our season passes this year - marginally better than last year I think. |
Did even better, 1.11 and a bit. |
Just got the credit card bill and got €1.1060/£ on the passes on 24th Nov, not too bad.
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a weak pound, deleveraging and a tory govmnt with a big enough majority to cut the defecit and job done.. this recession wil be forgotten along with the last dozen as the next greedfest commences!! hurrah!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Bset way to spend in Europe is to buy a prepaid card with fairfx. bought E335 for £300 10 days ago. looks pretty good value now. No charges for using the card except for cash withdrawls and then only a fixed fee.
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jzBun, Still usually more expensive than a Nationwide debit card.
No fees even for cash withdrawals on that, and nor are you charged to put money on as most (not all) prepaid cards do.
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FAQ
not much in it, but it means the first couple of beers are effectively free
