 Poster: A snowHead
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rob@rar asked,
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Does cold and dry mean that the avalanche risk will reduce more slowly than if the weather was a bit warmer?
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Have a look at this avalanche.org link on Depth Hoar
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Depth hoar forms because of large temperature gradients within the snowpack.....
....as long as the ground has an insulating blanket of snow, the ground is almost always warm--near freezing--even with very cold air temperatures....
... the top of the snow surface, on the other hand, can become extremely cold--especially when exposed to a clear sky--thus creating one of the most common temperature gradient conditions.....
.....making the perfect breeding conditions for the dreaded faceted snow near the ground, which we call depth hoar.
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I'm not being a party-pooper, but be aware...
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brian
brian
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hedley, well, the HP hasn't even established itself yet, so we're in the realms of pure speculation but I would be surprised if there's any more significant snowfall in the alps this week or next, so basically up to xmas.
Having said that, if the block doesn't form in the nice stable way it looks on the model output then ...
I miss carled and skanky too, feels like I'm ploughing a bit of a lonely furrow. I'm sure there's others watching the models who know more about alpine weather than me. 
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brian
brian
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geoffers, the snowpack should hopefully be thick enough in most places to prevent too much depth hoar forming. Aiui, it's most likely to form when the snow is thin.
Maybe we could spawn this into a new thread and try and attract the likes of davidof, any passing mods that could help out ?
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I miss carled and skanky too, feels like I'm ploughing a bit of a lonely furrow
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Well please don't stop, brian, it's much appreciated.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Helloooo! Dragged out of furtiveness... Well, to add my tuppence-worth... I kind of agree with Brian (unfortunately in this case...) it's another classic "so near and yet so far" scenario with that high looking like developing in just the wrong place (well, wrong place for the traditional alpine spots... I daresay there are some balkan states in for a bit of a dumping from this set-up if it continues this way). Anyone heading off towards Borovets could be in for some fun and games. There's a stonking little low pressure system set to cruise on up and over Iceland later this week and that, if it takes the predicted track, will rip some rather amazingly warm air up and over the British Isles later this weekend. Indeed, if the low pressure system stays out far enough west to avoid the warm/cold air battle directly over us, then we could get clear skies and very warm daytime temperatures out of that towards the end of the week. Of course, if the LP system moves a little bit East... we're gonna get wet... again...
So, it's interesting, but not potentially great for the alps. Having said that, at least there'll be some nice visibility for people to enjoy the early season snow with!
And, also if the LP system due to pass by the west coast of Ireland does sneak off a little further West instead, all that warm air being pulled up and twisted around in the Arctic Circles is going to be able to drift down a little bit further West than Eastern Europe and Bob's your uncle... I do, however, feel this is unlikely though as that High pressure system is looking alarmingly well set up to be a "blip" on the charts.
I don't know what Brian thinks about it, but I reckon that with the current set up, Greece could be in line for one of those strange snow events it gets every now and then! Won't please those who have snuck over there for warm weather, that's for certain... 
Having had a look at the other (non GFS) models, interestingly they do track the LP further east, meaning that Austria and bits of France also get involved with the Arctic air sweeping down. Outside chance of Austria getting a decent bit of snow into Thursday perhaps?
Still... it's better than last year, innit? 
*edited to correct muppetry of mixed up "wests" and "easts"... 
Last edited by Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do. on Mon 10-12-07 23:13; edited 1 time in total
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brian, See, you ask and he shall appear  I must rub that Magic Lamp again.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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carled, welcome back! I think that you weather people who have produced such excellent snow for us already this year must feel that people are being a bit ungrateful if they grumble because there are no more record breaking falls likely in the next ten days or so. Some people are never satisfied.
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pam w, nah, I'll just be glad to get some snow under my skis, and some sunshine on my face.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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carled, Many thanks for the input. It puzzles me why myself and others are besotted by the weather forecasts as there is bog all we can do to influence them. We get what we get.
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brian
brian
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carled, welcome back
alex_heney, if you read back you'll see I was talking about the dry spell starting from Wednesday onwards.
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You know it makes sense.
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carled, glad to have you back
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Frosty the Snowman wrote: |
| carled, Many thanks for the input. It puzzles me why myself and others are besotted by the weather forecasts as there is bog all we can do to influence them. We get what we get. |
Occasionally useful for planning. I decided where to park the car last week (indoors or outdoors) based on brian's comments.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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with any big and expensive deal in our lives (think - weddings, for example, or buying a new car) we spend far, far, more time thinking, planning, anticipating, dreaming and dithering, than we spend actually doing it. Per minute, a ski holiday is very expensive. Per minute of time spent thinking, planning (etc) it's cheap as chips. Plus, in short range it's vital for planning. Last year my son brought a flight forward by 24 hours so I wouldn't have to drive to Geneva on one of the four powder days we had last season. So we got back up the mountain as it started and woke to a magic world. Even if you're going on a fixed week, it can make a difference to what you pack (large quantities of thermals, if you're going out now, for example!). When in UK I use forecasts to try to organise friends borrowing the apartment to have chains when they need them. They don't always listen though - one lot missed a flight last February because they had not believed me when I told them they wouldn't get back to Geneva without them! (Europcar Geneva hadn't got any, and they were reluctant to buy any). Being a sailor, I find weather awareness second nature - and it's not just a case of looking what's happening the following day. To make sense of it, you need a dynamic feel for what's been happening for some days, because things can evolve faster or slower than forecast. But I don't understand Alpine weather - so am grateful for those who do, and spend time telling us how to read the runes.
And it's soooooooo exciting!
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brian
brian
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Frosty the Snowman, if you spend any time skiing in Scotland and have the flexibility to go at a moment's notice, then having some idea of the weather is a big bonus. That's how I got into it and once you're sucked in it becomes a bad habit. We're totally spoiled nowadays with all the freely available data online. I remember the old days screaming at Michael Fish to get his arse out of the way of the highlands for the 4 and a half seconds he was showing an atlantic pressure chart 
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pam w, some friends had to buy some once as hire company did not have any, the hire company bought them back.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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for the 4 and a half seconds he was showing an atlantic pressure chart
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Ah! the days before they dumbed down the weather forecast and tilted the map to make Scotland look smaller...
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Helen Beaumont, it would always be worth asking, I suppose. French side of Geneva, it was....
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Hmm... that high is still around on today's model runs... Also the GFS has that low pressure system a bit further west than yesterday, moving the cold air a bit more towards Austria/France/Switzerland than the last few runs. Still see a worrying trend of that high settling back into central/southern europe into next week... could be a tad warm, but should be nice and clear.
On another note... you know what? I'm really starting to like the way things are developing for dear old Blighty... A White Christmas is not a forlorn hope at all if this keeps on going as it is at present... There is every chance of a decent Scandinavian high forming (then collapsing) but this leads very nicely into a potent Northerly blast of air smacking into a large amount of warm air all around... big time snow... of course it'll probably all end falling into the North sea, but we can hope. Unfortunately the formation of a damn Bartlett High is also on the cards, which leads to mild drizzle for most of the time... However (again!) once that collapses, there's a real chance of some sustained cold set-ups occurring, bringing benefit to the continent and even some serious snow down into the UK... Yes please Santa!
*Expect me to retract all this early January when we're into the 3rd week of mild zonality and an established Bartlett High... 
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| carled wrote: |
| On another note... you know what? I'm really starting to like the way things are developing for dear old Blighty... A White Christmas is not a forlorn hope at all if this keeps on going as it is at present... |
Funnily enough the BBC local weather chappy said something similiar last night, with all the usual caveats of too far away to be sure etc etc 
regards,
greg
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brian
brian
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christmas day skiing on the south downs.....we can but dream 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Hi all, sorry this is a bit of a blatant plug, but just wanted to let you all know that we've relaunched the ski/board resort forecasts over on Netweather today. They're much improved on last year, with forecasts for both the base and the top of the mountain in there.
If you do see any odd forecasts for certain locations on there, please let me know as it's more than likely to be a case that there is a mistake on the latitude and longitude setting for that resort, which is easy to fix once it's noticed!
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=ski;sess=;
Cheers
Paul
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Paul - Netweather, thanks for the link. Also, why not stick around here from time to time and chip in to the discussion - always good to have people with a bit of expertise make a contribution.
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Definitely will do, I tried to drop in from time to time last year to take part a bit (I board as well, off to fernie this year), so will certainly be around again this winter
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You know it makes sense.
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Thanks for all the info; I for one am glad that a) there is snow in St Anton, b) there is quite a lot of it, c) I'll be able to see where I'm going and d) I'll have sunshine on my face. Shame it isn't looking like there are going to be any lovely overnight dumps of powder but I'm still rather chuffed I guessed right and booked this week to go to Austria
Five sleeps to go although the last one doesn't count!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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RobintheBobin, what day(s) are you there, and I don't suppose you've booked with pistetopowder have you? I have 2 mates going out on Friday who are joining a group.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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brian
brian
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RobintheBobin, which is exactly the time you need a guide, to find you the goods when the obvious bits are tracked !
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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I suppose you're all skiers? I'm a boarder heading out Friday night for a week, wanted to do a week with Piste to Powder but they don't have a group running. Almost worth hiring a pair of skis except I never quite conquered powder in my skiing days (not surprising, used to ride around on 2m long pencil thin jobbies). Anyway, conditions look great so my mate and I will find our own fun...
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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elvis, boarder mate
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brian
brian
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Well here's my last bit of chipping in to this thread for a few days as I'm going skiing tomorrow !! Happy Days !
Anyway, back to the weather ....
The next few days look pretty settled over the alps with a big High pressure area sitting over the North Sea extending its dry influence over the UK and most of europe. All of the big 3 models (GFS, ECMWF and UKMO) keep it sitting there until Monday dragging pretty cold air from the east (possible chances of at least a bit of snow for the western end of the pyrenees).
Outside of the reliable timeframe, GFS and ECM move the high a little west over the UK in the middle of the next week and then sink it SE, this happens quicker on GFS so atlantic lows get back to pounding the UK round about the 21/22nd. ECM looks like it would be going the same way a bit later. All this is deep fantasyland but the degree of consistency between runs has been surprisingly high.
However, this evening, UKMO's 12z breaks ranks and moves the high north over Norway on Tuesday with an undercutting atlantic low diving south ! Could be very interesting for a spot of winter in England (and Scotland down the line if the high would retrogress just a teensy little further) if that's the start of a new trend ....
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brian, have a good trip. When will your forecasting service resume?
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Have fun brian, look forward to a TR.
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brian
brian
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Thanks chaps, back in the office on Tuesday.
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brian,
Is it too early to see a trend for Christmas week over the french alps?
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FAQ
) and I suppose we just want to make sure we have something to ski on? Also beats work 
