 Poster: A snowHead
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Irish authorities are telling IRFU to postpone Ireland Italy rugby match, was due to be played in a week and a half from now. Seems sensible, probably only the start of restrictions to come.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@peanuthead, the data are not available to confidently make those assertions (although they may well be true). Has anyone on here stated that it cannot be contained?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @peanuthead, the data are not available to confidently make those assertions (although they may well be true). Has anyone on here stated that it cannot be contained? |
To be fair, I'm sort of suggesting that it's going to be very difficult. It's just an opinion though and a layman's one at that. I'm much better at amateur meteorology 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Bodeswell, Interesting name for such a pessimistic outlook. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Old Fartbag, It's a long story 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Bodeswell, gotcha, it feels that way to me as well. but I am no epidemiologist. and I refer back to my data lack as above.
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One of the senior guys in my firm (Big 4 accounting) had lunch at weekend with a v senior medical expert who told him that the UK authorities are planning for a worst case infection rate of 60%, 100k UK deaths, and virus not peaking outside China til May. Obviously very worst case scenario, but worrying nonetheless.
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| Bodeswell wrote: |
| @Old Fartbag, It's a long story |
Aren't they all!
A touch of irony, maybe?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@under a new name, there is more than enough data to convince most or all public health authorities in most countries that it is significantly more severe and infectious than most strains of influenza!
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If you consider the numbers roughly given earlier in the thread it shows the change in speed of transmission starkly.
1 to 1 infection rate would give, if you take each example transmitted for each day over a 7 day period, weekly total of 128
1 to 2 infection rate over the same example reaches 1458. It's just much harder to reverse this process in reality meaning you've got to act much more stringently to hang on to it.
Coupled with the 14 day incubation period makes it hard for those making the decisions to act fast enough without undue alarm.
Edit; changed the 1 to 2 total to 1458 as corrected maths.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Rois1980, whoaa... I say whoaa there on the panic horse...
Obviously not privy to the actual details of what your friends were discussing, but those magnitude of figures have long been part of the published upper end of government scenarios for serious pandemics. It’s the figures they have to prepare for in a worst case situation which is how you would expect them to prepare.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@nozawaonsen,
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I didn’t know that to be fair, but given the seniority of the person giving the info, and how senior they described the medical professional to be, i’m minded to believe that the worst case is indeed being planned for. And as you say - how you would expect them to react.
Worst case planning is probably more often the case than we will ever know.
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You know it makes sense.
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| Quote: |
first time on snowheads. I'm going go Tonale last week in march & would apreciate all updates ön conditions in resor. Good site, appreciate
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| jbob wrote: |
Just seen this on Facebook.
“Just had this message from someone in Italy now:
I am in Tonale at present and the media have blown thing up a little. At present the bars close at 18:30 and internal sports have been stopped. Skiing is still permitted and they are reviewing 1st March.
Also just heard on news that 2 Uk schools have closed following school ski trips to Italy last week
Not looking good is it....” |
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Quote: |
i’m minded to believe that the worst case is indeed being planned for.
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Well one hopes so - that's reassuring!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Way too much rumour flying around, perhaps unsurprisingly. A quote from a senior WHO person in Rome today
Only 3% of Italian coronavirus patients have died, and all of them had pre-existing conditions, Walter Ricciardi of the World Health Organisation told a Rome press conference Tuesday. “We must scale back this great alarm,” said Ricciardi, a former director at Italy’s Higher Health Institute (ISS).
Of 100 sick people, 80 get well of their own accord, 15 have serious but manageable problems, 5% are extremely serious, of which 3% die. Furthermore, as you know, all the people who died already had serious health conditions.
No doubt it is sensible to try to slow down the spread of the virus to minimise the risk of it mutating and also to allow time to develop vaccines but there really is no need for panic. Hundreds of thousands of people die every year from complications caused by influenza viruses (hence why vulnerable folk are encouraged to get vaccinated) and that is easily transmitted from person to person but we manage to cope with that without mass hysteria. It is quite possible that like the common cold (about 60% of cases are caused by types of corona viruses) the Covid 19 virus will become far less problematic as the weather get warmer, for some reason not completely understood colds and flu are more prevalent in winter.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Worth bearing mind that more people are catching and dieing from common flu than corona virus worldwide. The vast majority of people who catch corona virus are just a bit ill and then recover.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| so I don't think the cold most people had few weeks ago was possibly coronavirus |
The common cold *is* a Coronavirus.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| stanton wrote: |
Masks are not that effective.
Clean Hands
Avoid touching handrails on trains,buses planes, wipe steering wheel gear, handles on rental cars etc
Dont touch your face oe eyes without cleaning hands.
Wear Gloves when travelling.. |
Re face masks not good
Because your eyes are not covered the spor will attach to the fluid on your eye ball
Also do not use Air Hand Dryers...they blow pathog ens all over the place
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@slopemad, got me! Covid-19!
Re likelihood of dissipating in good weather- hasn't really worked out for them in Singapore or Hong Kong
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
| If you are really lucky, you book yourself into a 5*+ hotel for one night get quarantined for 14 nights and this get two weeks free. Always an angle. |
I dont thi k it works like that....
Afaik you still will get a invoice from tbe Hotel and it will be down tou you and your insurance company...
I know in Austria if you refuse to pay a bill they call the Police and they confiscate your passport..
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@stanton, I suspect the Austrians might been keener on getting you out of Austria rather than keeping you in the country..............
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We have rebooked to fly to Zurich tomorrow instead of Venice (same times from Luton) and booked a hotel in Lech instead. The hotel in the Dolomites have let us cancel the booking and it cost us £150 each to change the flights on Easyjet so not horrific. We all have our own businesses and ageing parents with health issues so just couldn’t risk Italy and quarantine. Hopefully it won’t spead to Lech/Zurich in the next five days and we can make it there and back.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@bambionskiis, I had the dry cough for about 3 weeks but comfortably passed the inbound temp scan at TRN 2 weeks ago. Lots of people seem to have had a dry annoying cough this winter, just this year's common cold variant I think.
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@Ajn12345, it sounds like a smart and relaxing choice. I LOVE that area.
If the Tirol situation stays more or less the same, I'm so flying in 2 days to my ski safari.
In the worst case scenario, I'll confine myself to the local mountain upon return and ski with a N95 mask instead of a buff
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| munich_irish wrote: |
| Hundreds of thousands of people die every year from complications caused by influenza viruses... |
I guess the "comforting" thing with proper/normal flu is that it is reasonably well understood in terms of impact, even if the impact is actually numerically quite serious e.g thousands of old folk die from it each year in the UK. Anything new has the potential to wipe us all out, hence the greater concern.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I have had an annoying cough since December ...
I’d also note that the human reference temperature is actually wrong...
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| Rois1980 wrote: |
| One of the senior guys in my firm (Big 4 accounting) had lunch at weekend with a v senior medical expert who told him that the UK authorities are planning for a worst case infection rate of 60%, 100k UK deaths, and virus not peaking outside China til May. Obviously very worst case scenario, but worrying nonetheless. |
So only one order of magnitude worse than ‘flu? As a “worst” case, that’s pretty reassuring.
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You know it makes sense.
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| peanuthead wrote: |
| @under a new name, there is more than enough data to convince most or all public health authorities in most countries that it is significantly more severe and infectious than most strains of influenza! |
No, there isn’t. And so far, doesn’t seem to be so significantly worse. Read the Atlantic article. And stop panicking. Panic breeds panic.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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The issue with COVID 19 is that there is no prior immunity due to immunisation or previous exposure in the high risk groups ( including the elderly). These patients are currently protected by the yearly flu jab. The elderly were not affected by H1N1 swine flu because they had been exposed to this virus decades previously, swine flu was a problem in children.
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Poster: A snowHead
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La Grave considering quarantine
I propose that La Grave should close the village before this storm starts and the snow arrives. We need a full quarantine of the village. No visitors, no one should be allowed in until we know whats up with this virus thats going around. I think it is in our best interest and for the safety of our village that we quarantine ourselves from the rest of the world until the lift closes or we know more about the virus.
This is about our health and safety.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@Weathercam, 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@Weathercam, you noble martyrs, you, civilisation will thank you.
“ Sharon Begley lays out two scenarios based on interviews with epidemiologists if the virus isn’t contained: In one, covid-19 becomes one of the mundane coronaviruses that’s always floating around in the world (there are currently four, they cause about a fourth of all colds). In another, it’s less mundane and more like the flu, which causes a lot of havoc every year”
From, https://slate.com/technology/2020/02/should-you-panic-about-coronavirus-now.html (answer, “No” )
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| @bambionskiis, I had the dry cough for about 3 weeks but comfortably passed the inbound temp scan at TRN 2 weeks ago. Lots of people seem to have had a dry annoying cough this winter, just this year's common cold variant I think. |
Thanks Dave, that's reassuring. I'm not bothered about myself but just don't want to pass onto anyone. My symptoms aren't worsening so I'm sure I'm ok
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Rois1980 wrote: |
| One of the senior guys in my firm (Big 4 accounting) had lunch at weekend with a v senior medical expert who told him that the UK authorities are planning for a worst case infection rate of 60%, 100k UK deaths, and virus not peaking outside China til May. Obviously very worst case scenario, but worrying nonetheless. |
Infection rate of 60% combined with the apparent mortality rate of 2% is 800k deaths not 100k. They are probably allowing for the reported number of cases in China greatly underestimating the real number of infections and that UK healthcare would save some that would have died in similar conditions in China
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| Old Fartbag wrote: |
| I'm afraid nobody has a crystal ball on this. |
What??!! I booked through Crystal specifically!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Orange200 wrote: |
| Old Fartbag wrote: |
| I'm afraid nobody has a crystal ball on this. |
What??!! I booked through Crystal specifically! |
That's so bad, it's almost good!
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@orjan, Welcome to SnowHeads
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One positive to this virus outbreak is the influx of new members to the SnowHeads Forum …
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