The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

A snowHead

What do you think are the chances of snowmaking on lower runs (1200-1500m) over the next few days, are temperatures likely to be low enough even with the high humidity?

A snowHead

@harrymac, it's just a chart generated using the raw GFS op run. It's actually a figure for precipitation rather than snow so in any case the conversion in cm of snow is already a bit dodgy.

However, if you add up the figures on something like Snowforecast.com you'll get a similar type of figure.

The point is the op run is just one run from one model. Beyond say five days out it can change quite dramatically (and actually closer too). Looking at the whole ensemble gives you a much better feel for the confidence in the outcome you are looking at. The figures beyond a few days out are best taken as indicative rather than actual forecasts.

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@Evan Roberts, it completely depends on where you are talking about and when.

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"...cited the difference between Avoriaz (1,800m) and neighbouring resort Morzine (1,000m) as an example of how altitude means everything... Avoriaz has plenty of snow and is now safe, but Morzine has hardly anything. It’s still too warm"...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/snowandski/skiing-news/12080603/Heavy-snow-ends-Alps-drought.html

Val Thorens at 2300m:

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

SLF update for Switzerland from yesterday evening.

In the west a critical avalanche situation will prevail

http://www.slf.ch/lawinenbulletin/schneedecke_wetter/index_EN

Here's their thoughts on the weather.

Observed weather on Monday, 4.1.2016

The night skies were very cloudy. Snow fell in the west and north in particular.

During the day the weather was mostly very cloudy in the west and north. Snow fell at times. The snowfall level was between1400 and 800 m. In the east and south it was sunny at times.

Fresh snow

Since Sunday afternoon the following amounts of snow have fallen:

- Lower Valais: 20 to 40 cm;
-in the regions bordering France: up to 60 cm
- Northern flank of the Alps west of Adelboden, Upper Valais, western Ticino, Glarus Alps: 10 to 20 cm
- Elsewhere: up to 10 cm

Since 1 January, 30 to 50 cm of fresh snow has fallen in the regions of Lower Valais exposed to heavier precipitation, and as much as 70 cm has fallen in some localities in the far west-

...

Weather forecast through

Tuesday, 5.1.2016

The night skies will be very cloudy. Snow will fall in the second half of the night and in the morning. The snowfall level will be approximately 1000 m. In the afternoon it will become increasingly dry and sunny at times.

Fresh snow

- Northern Alpine ridge, Lower Valais: 10 to 20 cm;
- extreme west of Lower Valais: up to 30 cm of fresh snow is possible
- Elsewhere: 5 to 10 cm

...

Outlook through Thursday, 7.1.2016

In the north it will be mostly very cloudy. In the north and west snow will fall at times above 1000 m. The south will be bright at times and mostly dry. On Thursday the wind will pick up, becoming strong to storm force at times from the west. The avalanche danger will change very little. In particular in the west, the situation will remain critical for those engaging in winter sports."

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GFS and ECM both continue to suggest cooler weather around mid month this morning. Whether it is just a day or two or something longer is still unclear.

Here are the temperature anomalies at +216 on ECM via Meteociel.

And yes it still looks like rain below 1600+/- for a while in the west (possibly 1800+/- further south in places like Serre Chevalier) on Thursday.

This gives an idea of snowfall out to next Tuesday.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

The problem I have, @nozawaonsen, with Snow-Forecast is that it seems (or did seem) to represent itself as being fairly definitive (I even subscribed, some years ago) and only with a fine SHs education do I see it as it is.

And clearly, given the conversations on here, I am not the only one to have been taken in...

After all it is free

So after a warm and sunny afternoon #dump4 blew in to the Western half of the Alps last night bringing up to 15cm of snow above 1000/1100 meters in the pre-alps (Bauges, Beaufortain, Chartreuse etc) but it didn't penetrate far south and petered out in the east of the French alps.
While conditions at 2000 meters in the Belledonne are now closer to normal there is still a lack of snow in the Haute-Maurienne and Southern Alps

It will be good for some of the low lying resorts in these ranges, especially those who were able to get the piste bashers out on Monday, and the higher cross country ski trails.

FL is around 1200 meters this morning (some snow ongoing).

Prealps and Western Ranges at 2000 meters approx
#dump1 10cm Thursday night
#dump2 25cm Saturday 2nd
#dump3 15cm Sunday/Monday 4th
#dump4 10cm Monday/Tuesday 5th
total fresh: 60cm @ 2000 m / total 90cm
35cm @ 1300 m

Interior Ranges
#dump1 2-3cm
#dump2 10cm
#dump3 25cm
#dump4 5cm
total fresh: 45cm

Mont Blanc
#dump1 5cm
#dump2 20cm
#dump3 15cm
#dump4 0cm
total: 40cm

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From Radio Val this morning

7h #valdisere : 20 cm de neige fraîche en plus tombés depuis hier. cela fait plus de 60 cm de tombé en 48h.

7 h #valdisere: 20 cm of fresh snow and more fallen since yesterday over 60 cm fell in 48 hours.

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some forecasts of fairly heavy rain at 1200 metres thursday.

snow reports

Thinking about the off piste. I'm wondering just how much needs to go down to create a base. Especially in Chamonix where you're not skiing meadows. Ten years ago a friend broke her back (not too badly) boarding in the first snows and I'm always a little cautious.

You know it makes sense.

what about these calls: season is over, spring is coming, FL will be over 2000, it will rain a lot, boatmageddon etc....50% out i reckon

only messing, but recording numbers for a range of mountains is massively subjective....let alone individual resorts / microclimates and about 10 other reasons listed recently

as it happens I did write down some numbers for snowforecast for les gets 1587m, just to see how much they changed each day. Below I've noted the prediction one day out (eg on 30th dec, they called for 5cm on 31st dec)

31st Dec 5
1st Jan 1
2nd Jan 22
3rd Jan 12
4th Jan 19
5th Jan 4
6th Jan 12

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

A snowHead

A snowHead

Good call. I can't predict what I'm doing 2 weeks away, never mind the weather for alps

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

Just in from Pelle at the Skiers Lodge La Grave via newsletter email

Dear Skier, Have You Heard!
More than 2 meters of snow coming up! http://wepowder.com/playgrounds/la-grave

The new year starts white in the western and northern Alps! Let's get this party started. A turbulent period begins and that might possibly persist for two weeks. It's a time that will bring lots of snow and multiple PowderAlerts to the western and northern Alps. The countdown to the end of 2015 and the beginning of The Big Change has started. Don't be surprised that between 100 and 275 centimeters of freshies came down in the western and northern Alps at the end of this period.

The only drawback is the snow line that keeps on shifting. In this forecast:The jetstream is moving south. The western and northern Alps are getting hammered. Four dumps coming up.

The jetstream is moving south. The Big Change is coming after a long period without any precipitation. I already told you in December the 20 that the weather would change around New Year. Long story short: pretty much all the cold air got sucked to the North Pole, and as a result the jetstream moved north as well.

The jetstream separates the cold air in the north from the warm air in the south and functions like a highway for storms to reach the Alps. If the jetstream is positioned north of the Alps, it's pretty warm in the Alps (thanks to the warm air from the south) and dry (no highway for the storms to reach the Alps). But fortunately the jetstream is moving south and is heading straight for the Alps.The western and northern Alps are getting hammered The jet stream is heading for the western Alps. It's still a bit of search the first couple of days, but France will get hammered from Friday. Storm depressions consist of a warm front followed by a cold front and this means that the snow will come from the southwest at first.

The snowline will be quite high at first, but will drop when the cold front arrives from the northwest. Those cold fronts will also bring snow to the northern Alps. The French Alps and the northern Alps will get plenty of snow. You know what, the change from warm to cold gives the best snow. Some warm and heavy snow at first, finished by cold, fluffy powder. Love it!

Four dumps coming up! I wrote about three dumps yesterday, but it's even getting better with four dumps!

The good news is that the warm air is followed pretty fast by cold air. The snow line therefore stays at reasonable altitude and won't rise above 2000 meters. It all became even better.

In short:
Dump 1 (December 31st - January 1st) 3-10, locally 20 centimeters of freshies above 1800 meters. Especially in the French northern Alps, western Switzerland and northern Austria. In almost all cases too little for a powder day and thus primarily intended to get us used to the weather phenomenon called snow again. Details can be found here.

Dump 2 (January 2nd) With 25-50 cm above 1900 meters it starts to look like it. The first snow comes down in the southern French Alps on Friday, then the snowfall extends to the northern French Alps and the northern Alps. Sunday will be a powder day in the French northern Alps. Be careful, because the base is very thin off-piste. You'd better ride on the slopes on Sunday. Only the higher parts of Val Thorens and the Espace Killy offer a reasonable base. More details can be found here.

Dump 3 (January 3rd and 4th) The third dump looks a bit like the second dump with 15-40 cm of freshies. It will start snowing on Sunday snow and it won't stop until Monday afternoon. It will start in the French Alps again and will expand to the north (and even to the Ortler region in Italy) later. Monday could be a powder day, but it will probably snow all day as well. Because dump 4 is waiting to hit the Alps! More details can be found here.

Dump 4 (January 4th - January 6th) The details of this dump are still uncertain, but it looks promising. The French Alps and the north of the Alps might expect 30-80 cm, locally even more than one meter of freshies. Details will follow later this week, but it looks very good.

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Am starting to worry about my intake - i'm sure i've not been imbibing exotic substances, but the Sherlock Holmes time machine (as featured on New Years day) seems to have taken over this thread.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

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Bit late that lot WC http://wepowder.com/forum/topic/219723.

Or YOU could just look out the fecking window snowHead

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

@jbob, down in this part of the world it might look nice off piste but if venturing off piste then use your rock-hoppers.

Below was this morning, might look sweet but going through to the bottom on most turns, snow boarder (track to the right) managed a better line, but he was going way to fast for such limited snow cover, my more cautious tracks are to his right.

More images in the Serre thread.

After all it is free

In the West of Switzerland - the amount of snow is now averaging 60-70% of long term mean values - with a maximum of about 90% - http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hsm/index_EN
And almost all of it has come in the last 3 days.....
http://www.slf.ch/schneeinfo/schneekarten/hn3d/index_EN

There are going to be a lot of avalanches whilst it settles down....

@Weathercam, looking nice.

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It's still pretty warm. I'm sitting in Albertville with a coffee (95p, France is absurdly expensive) having dropped son and GF to catch a train in Chambéry. Temperature is 9 degrees and the snowline is still quite high. But it's white and snowy up in the mountains. 90cms of fresh snow at 2000m in Saisies.

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Fairly heavy snow down to 1400m in the central Pyrenees overnight and this morning which has given our guests some great skiing at Peyragudes, and with cooler weather and more snow forecast it should continued to be good evening if the temps rise for a while at the end of the week.

Our other local resort Superbagneres however is struggling, though snow has fallen it is too thin on the lower slopes and the high humidity at the moment is preventing the cannons from working.

Fingers crossed for much cooler weather coming in next week.

snow reports

Latest from SLF for Switzerland

"Weather forecast through Wednesday, 6.1.2016

In the north the night will be cloudy but mostly dry. During the day in the north it will be mostly cloudy. Towards midday light snow will begin to fall above approximately 800 m. The south will be sunny at times and dry.

Fresh snow

- Northern flank of the Alps and Lower Valais: 5 to 15 cm;
- along the border to France: up to 20 cm in some localities
- Elsewhere: a few centimetres or none

Temperature

At midday at 2000 m: -5 °C

Wind

In the north at elevated altitudes and in the Prealps, moderate, elsewhere mostly light from the west to southwest

Outlook through Friday, 8.1.2016

On Thursday snow will fall in the north and west. The snowfall level will rise to 1400 m at times. On the northern flank of the Alps and in Valais strong wind is likely to be accompanied by up to 40 cm of fresh snow. Friday will be mostly cloudy. Only a little further snow will fall. In the south and east only a little snow will fall in the next two days.

The avalanche danger will increase on Thursday, in particular in the west and north. In the east and south the danger will not change significantly."

You know it makes sense.

Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:

https://next.ft.com/content/3d46eaf0-b3a1-11e5-b147-e5e5bba42e51

This is one of the top 3 strongest El Nino events of the past 50 years.

A snowHead

Why are so few pistes open in France compared to the Dolomites?

We're headed to Les Deux Alpes on Sat to take advantage of a cheap deal. It has been snowing and lots more is forecast, so I had a quick look online to see how many pistes were open. 65% of lifts are running and 42% of pistes are open (http://www.2alpesnet.com/lifts/status). Which is a bit disappointing. In the dolomites where they have had v little snow, they have still managed to get 85% of lifts running and 72% of slopes open (http://www.dolomitisuperski.com/en/live-info/open-slopes). The Dolomites is a huge area too.

Is the difference down to national character -- French insouciance, Gallic shruggery vs Tyrolean efficiency? Or is it that the French just haven't invested in snow making kit. Webcams in the dolomites almost invariably show snow cannons going full blast. I must say that in my experience the ski lift system in the Dolomites is rather slicker that in France.

It looks like studying the forecasts and following the snow might not always be the best plan.

A snowHead

@chomski, no idea, but perhaps there recent heavy snowfall on to an unstable base has meant more lifts and pistes are closed while pisteurs are securing terrain from avalanche danger. Sadly there have been at least three avalanche deaths in the last two days.

Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?

The Dolomites snow making capablities has been discussed before and is certainly the main contributor. The Dolomites have better snow making conditions (drier air) and have invested large amounts in reservoirs, cannons etc. as they get much less natural snow.
L2A is also rockier and so will require a larger base before pistes are safe.

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@rob@rar, I agree. Too much snow could well be the problem rather than too little.

Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.

Strong winds, combined with high avalanche risk and general volumes of wind blown snow I suspect and until things stabilize and slow down there is probably only so much that can be opened?? Thats just a guess, someone more knoweldgable will probably know!

I have watched today as quite a bit of La ros has opened up through the day but access to much of the fun stuff across towards la thuile side is well and truly locked down still it seems. Fingers crossed they get it open for next week just for me, but there will be a lot more snow to make safe and shovel about I suspect before then.

Having furiously snow danced and sacrificed many many things to get the snow to come to the western Alps I am wondering if I have overdone things .......... No I retract that, there can't be too much snow..... can there? Toofy Grin

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@chomski, the Dolomites haven't had any natural snow.

Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...

After all it is free

@rob@rar, thankfully. Monterosa (which I kno is not in teh Dolomites wink

) is finally getting its act together.

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@under a new name, indeed. Next few days also look snowy, so finally some natural stuff to build on the man-made which has saved their season so far.

Help!!

The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

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