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Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
brian,

Looking at the BBC Weather for tomorrow morning it is suggesting a temp of 2 degrees at low levels with a couple of big white blobs across the region. Do you think there could be some snow above 200m on the Sperrins or Antrim Hills?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
ski wrote:
So ..gong to Tignes on the 17th. Should I take my phat skis, or my rock skis ? Confused


Decide on the 16th...
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 brian
brian
Guest
johnboy, possibly, but if there is I think it will quickly be washed away as it turns to rain. I think rain all the way is more likely but the Met office should know a lot better than me !
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 brian
brian
Guest
pam w, wow !

Batten down the hatches ...



Amazing that for the same forecast time, it's almost calm over Cairngorm.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
brian, I'll be windsurfing that on Sunday ooohhh yeah. Very Happy

There's lots more windy weather nerdishness on this windsurfing forum: http://www.boards.co.uk/forum/forum_posts.asp?TID=18409&TPN=11
Some of the posters take weather related geekery to levels far beyond those seen here... wink
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hd, another boards forum user , hello!
Considering going windsurfing this weekend, see how busy i am with work Sad
I guess your local spot is the south coast?
I'm stuck with rutalnd water most the time, not much wind forecast there for sunday.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
waynos, let's not go off topic on a weather thread... Wink Wink Wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
kitenski,
Quote:

Decide on the 16th...


Good idea.... need to pack on the 13th Sad
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 brian
brian
Guest
pam w wrote:

Fantastic. Let's hope freezing levels are low enough.


So by tomorrow morning there'll be nice cold air over the alps. Then warm front arrives tomorrow evening, initially bringing snow, then rain in the warm sector (hopefully only for a few hours and confined to below 2000m) and followed up by a cold front turning things colder again with snow right down to below 1000m by Sunday afternoon.

Cold on Monday with a bit more snow, colder still on Tuesday with snow easing off and staying cold but brightening up on Wednesday. Continuing cold (potentially very cold) and dry thereafter with winds from the north east.
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Last November, the average sea surface temperature in the Northern Hemisphere was higher than it's ever been (during the period of reliable measurements) and the Alpine season was a bit of a disaster. This year's figure is way down (nearly a quarter of a degree, which must represent one helluva lot less energy) and the coldest November since 1995.

Could this be a reason for optimism?

The figures are here:

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/hadsst2nh.txt

On the same site, there are gridded 5 deg x 5 deg figures, so anyone who has the time could look at the North Atlantic and North Pacific separately for European and N. American forecasts (assuming my theory has any validity).
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freezing level has seemingly crept down to below 1400m as its snowing in meribel at the moment Laughing
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
laundryman,

Didn't know you were a weather nerd wink
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
johnboy, well I'm most other types of nerd! Toofy Grin
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
laundryman,

Where did you find that data? Makes sense though
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Snowing at 1300 in stanton too
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
and now just starting to settle in Chamonix snowHead snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Heavy snow in St Anton now at 1300
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
changed from rain to snow last night, still snowing now.
Monetier opens this morning, should be fun Very Happy
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johnboy, the data is at the University of East Anglia Climate Research unit.

http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/

I follow the global warming debate quite closely, so that's how I came across the figures.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
ski, phat mate, phatter the better. It snowed big time over the last 24 hours. I was just speaking to an ESF instructor in Les Arcs and these are the best opening conditions he can remember for a long time.
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rob@rar, after last year, we all deserve this. snowHead snowHead snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
pam w wrote:
rob@rar, after last year, we all deserve this. snowHead snowHead snowHead


Yes, although as I was walking around the lake at Tignes at 4am this morning in a mean blizzard I was wishing for slightly calmer conditions Wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rob@rar, Tignes website reports 40+ cms at 2100 overnight. Looking at A N Other webcam wink It would look much the same in other parts of the valley. Looks set to continue until Wednesday morning. Take care, but have fun Very Happy
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Quote:
as I was walking around the lake at Tignes at 4am this morning

Try a nice glass of warm milk and whisky before you go to bed!
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rob@rar, Clubbing in Val Claret again? Shocked Shocked Shocked Very Happy
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Frosty the Snowman, yes, it was officially a Big Night. I'd finished my BASI course and some friends were at the end of their gap course so to celebrate we partook of the delights of the Crowded House, Blue Girl and Melting Pot. Strangely nobody have given any thought to a strategy for returning to Le Lac rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
rob@rar, The Boss and I have done exactly the same. The walk along the road is MUCH further in a blizzard Embarassed Sounds like a good time was had by all.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Frosty the Snowman wrote:
rob@rar, The Boss and I have done exactly the same. The walk along the road is MUCH further in a blizzard Embarassed Sounds like a good time was had by all.

Yup. I've not woken up drunk for many a year Embarassed
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Heavy reain here. The wee river that runs through the farm has just burst it's banks
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
rob@rar, snowHead snowHead snowHead Phat it is then snowHead snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
there's certainly a lot of weather about. lots of "violent storm 11" in the shipping forecasts tonight; in many of the western sea areas. That's not something you see very often. We're only getting force 10, but that's something we rarely see; a full gale is impressive enough. Waiting for the midnight pressure update from the met office to decide whether I have to get up early to think about flood defences. Anyone know the relationship between atmospheric pressure and differences from predicted tidal height. Average, on which predictions are based, is 1012mb, I think, and the last chart suggested we would have 970 tomorrow. 42mb could make quite a difference to the height of tide. I guess I am about to find out, empirically - a google search didn't find it.

When it hits the Alps tomorrow night........ should make for some good webcam watching, if a bit boisterous out on the slopes.
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 brian
brian
Guest
Outlook for the alps from Wednesday until into next week in 3 words: cold and dry. Potentially very, very cold.

Good news for wrongsideof30 and any other pyreneean snow watchers, there is considerable potential for the cold air flooding western Europe from the north east to meet some moist med air round about the mountains from next weekend. When/where/if is very vague at this stage but I thought you might like a straw to clutch at wink
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Does cold and dry mean that the avalanche risk will reduce more slowly than if the weather was a bit warmer? There seemed to be a lot of loaded slopes when I was out there last week.
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Fantastic start to the season. This should provide the base up high right throughout the season. The next time we'll see some of this snow again should be in May Laughing

There is always a 'however'. Nature has a way of balancing things out so the question is when will we get the inevitable drought ? Are we destined for a snowless January or February? This is a good excuse for having at least two trips. One at the beggining of the season to enjoy the snow low down and one in April to enjoy it high up. snowHead

Its going to take a bit of digging out from here to make things safe but its certainly looking good for Christmas right now.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Peter S, I'm booked for february and can't make 2 trips, please don't jinx the one I've got!

Seriously though, is there any reason to fear that all this early snow will mean less in January and February? Do previous records back this up? I hope it just keeps coming! snowHead
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Quote:

is there any reason to fear that all this early snow will mean less in January and February?

no.
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 brian
brian
Guest
^^^

What she said !
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 brian
brian
Guest
rob@rar, interesting question. If only we had a qualified instructor around to help us answer it .... wink

Seriously, I'm far from an expert in avvy matters but I'd imagine that the sun will be getting to work on stabilising anything with a bit of southerly aspect but that steep north facing terrain will remain dangerous for a while to come. I, for one, shall be religiously reading the bulletins ...
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Peter S, I have taken heed and booked three trips. Am I obsessing?
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brian, Any thoughts on when the high may break down and be replaced by westerlies again??

Just before xmas week looks promising?

What happened to 'Carled' I used to love his Weather Attitude wink
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