 Poster: A snowHead
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Yes it’s notable that average 1500m (850hpa) temps are hugging the zero line right thru to end of run / nov. It’s rare to see such relatively tightly bunched ensembles so far into the unreliable. It’s also very rare to get a decent scandi high in November when the Atlantic is usually dominant, aided by a strengthening polar vortex.
But the vortex is showing signs of splitting higher up, with a little warming on the Asian side. All those rossby / eddie flux waves from twin pincher pac / scandi highs are interfering with the upper thermal gradient. Could lead to an early (Dec) SSW split, or useful displacement of PV lobe over to European side.
Anyway all that mumbo jumbo aside, the Atlantic is hitting a wall over the North Sea and disrupting energy SE. At the same time we have freezing air marching west under the high.
Here’s yesterday’s UKMO for next weekend
And todays 00z
Other models don’t have the same extent of cold undercutting but it’s good to see UKMO on the colder side as it’s usually more accurate.
Looking further out, it’s all about the scandi block limpet and how the Atlantic gets disrupted. As it can’t go thru or over, the jet stream will digger further south. Really could see an ideal set up as W to NW flow meets a cold continent, with med lows thrown in for good measure.
Here's ECM mean pressure anom for 19th....almost cross polar arctic high, pusihing lows into US / atlantic / west EU. Scandi high moving north, jet digging south
And GFS temp anomalies next 9 days across US....coming soon to a theatre near you?
Worst case would be the atlantic trough stays too far west, euro-scandi high shuts the door and we are back to sq 1....but not likely at the moment.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Some lower temperatures and some (slightly delayed) early season accumulation on the way. In the Alps the French Alps and nearby Swiss areas look like profiting most over the next week.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Excuse my ignorance, in theory do resorts with 100% snow cannon coverage need any natural snow to open if it is cold enough? ie a base layer? - Or could they just pump out enough to cover the slopes...
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@nozawaonsen, Yep looks like the start of the base above 2000ms in the west .
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@geomar, providing temps are cold enough they don't need any natural snow. I've skied early season on entirely artificial white stripes and it was a lot of fun. A bit firm and grippy, but I've skied much nastier real snow at times.
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Pretty good start to the week snow settling above 1500m and 15cm at 2200m. More forecast Tuesday night and Thursday…
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| geomar wrote: |
| Excuse my ignorance, in theory do resorts with 100% snow cannon coverage need any natural snow to open if it is cold enough? ie a base layer? - Or could they just pump out enough to cover the slopes... |
Yes they can 'just pump it out' but once they have emptied their water reservoirs, what do they do then? What happens if the temperatures increase?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Henry and his team generally worth listening to.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
| some interesting sage/non scientific words here |
Indeed kitenski  Not when opened on my phone!
"And brillig were the slithy toves..." 
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I know nothing about weather, however the weatherman on tv blames the warm temperatures on the jet stream. Is this changed by global warming or is it something else?
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@mountainaddict, yep that link isn't working anymore for me either, but I did skim thru it a few days ago.....didn't learn anything though, mostly just asking questions about if it will snow and will it be cold enough. Maybe I missed it but didn't see which part of the alps he was questioning. Clearly it is going to snow (already plenty above 2000) and it is going to get much colder everywhere. I guess websites like that and wepowder need to remain conservative as ultimately they are selling something....ad's, courses, books, merch. I rarely read any forecasting on those sites that isn't already 80% in the bag.
So we're at the 16th, which I've been looking at since the 8th Nov for the start of a pattern change. The GFS was definitely closest to the mark, in the 8-10 day range. I think the fact that it runs twice as often and almost twice as far as other models it will inevitably highlight more options in the unreliable time frames. But it is very good at sniffing changes in direction, the difficulty is knowing which ones are likely to work. In this case it was consistent over several days and eventually supported by ECM / GEM (regarding scandi high not sinking too much). But while it's useful at that range, it struggles more I believe with resolving blocking patterns as time draws in. Here it makes sense to focus on UKMO and ECM, as they have proven better accuracy in the 3-7 day range.
GFS still lagging behind other models in snow extent predictions....which is a bit unusual, as mostly it's one of the more 'overly eager' models for precipitation.
Link here showing 7 models precip totals out to next thursday, with GFS in the bottom 2. So let's go with ECM and 1m+ in the NW.
https://meteologix.com/fr/model-charts/euro/switzerland/accumulated-precipitation/20221124-1800z.html
22nd still looking good, 80% dans la poche.....temps a bit more marginal into next week as some slightly milder air tries to mix in (main trough too far west)....and a bit far away time wise for that detail just yet.
Decent consistency across the 3 means.
  
And looking even further out, not seeing a big change.....atlantic stuck, high pressure to NE, likely very wet Ire/UK....alps might get more marginal again unless atlantic ridge can build and lead to NW-SE flow instead of defaulting to SW-NE. Supporting that idea is a sign that AO and NAO are both heading negative.
edit...updated link above now has GFS 06z as the least snowiest out of the 7.... all of the others have over 1m in western parts......upgrade after upgrade keep rolling in
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Poster: A snowHead
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| polo wrote: |
| Clearly it is going to snow (already plenty above 2000) and it is going to get much colder everywhere. |
it needs to. I cycled back from work today at 7pm in shorts. The snow fell above 2000 meters yesterday but not much and melted up to 2300 during the day in the sun. Another warm day tomorrow in the French Norther Alps.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@davidof, it sounds very depressing 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Yes I did mention on the previous page there would be mild SW flow mixed in at the beginning of this snowy period. Temps will drop almost 10 degrees from a balmy 7c at 1500m lunch time today to -3 by Sunday and stay low to wed 23rd (although high snow line Monday). It will also be windy today in the NW alps, and with the air mass already feeling chilly (coming in my window) I’d be reaching for thermals under those shorts.
The real action should arrive mon-tues, hope your area does well, still looks like some places could get a meter plus, but let’s go with a more conservative wide area call of 50cm at 1800m and 25cm at 1200m (NW alps) will have fallen by mid week. GFS is starting to pull up its socks now as well so look on the bright side. I’ve been telling mates that Tuesday will be epic. Let’s see.
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@polo, if this comes to pass, are you expecting enough for a spot of skin up/slide down meadow action up near Chavannes? Out in Morzine next weekend (25th) and a half day off from sorting the bike room out would be a welcome distraction!
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@andy from embsay, yeah I’ll update on the PdS thread as week progresses. 10 days out is too far to call, and although ECM 00z has just rolled out showing a small Atlantic ridge forming I’d say it’s 50/50 right now whether it will be too warm below 1800m into next weekend.
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The 50cm on Tuesday for Zillertal that was on the forecast when I went to bed last night is now 15cm…
Anyway cold temps allow should allow the cannons to get going. It will be tight for a 3rd Dec opening.
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Booked Val Thoren on the 10th to 17th December. Looking like it's going to be borderline but hoping doable... checking webcams 24/7!
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| userscott wrote: |
| Booked Val Thoren on the 10th to 17th December. Looking like it's going to be borderline but hoping doable... checking webcams 24/7! |
Will you have students out then?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Kenzie wrote: |
| userscott wrote: |
| Booked Val Thoren on the 10th to 17th December. Looking like it's going to be borderline but hoping doable... checking webcams 24/7! |
Will you have students out then? |
No idea as to how busy or otherwise it will be, I've never been VT either... it's just always a good week for me and the boys and it's the day before the ski passes go into peak rates..! Hoping for a good time. 
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| userscott wrote: |
| Booked Val Thoren on the 10th to 17th December. Looking like it's going to be borderline but hoping doable... checking webcams 24/7! |
every chance of a biggy rolling in between now and then.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Yup we’re out 10th to 17th Dec at Belle Plagne too. Hopefully the gamble will pay off
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Snow down to 1500 meters here in Kitzbühel
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Another nice top-up last night
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You know it makes sense.
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@BobinCH, nice!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Poster: A snowHead
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| dkimble wrote: |
| @davidof, it sounds very depressing |
early days but clearly an exceptionally warm autumn this year.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Finally some lying snow in Tignes today - more updates from the experts please, only 2 weeks to go  Will it get warm again and melt forcing me to walk to a lift?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
| Will it get warm again and melt forcing me to walk to a lift? |
Where are you staying in resort Dubmuffin?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Verbier today
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@mountainaddict, I'm going to the PSB so Taos at Le Lac
@kitenski, every resort should have one of these 
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@kitenski, so that's what 6 inches looks like?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| under a new name wrote: |
| @kitenski, so that's what 6 inches looks like? |
you wouldn't want to ski those slopes behind
As for the 15cm/6inches you can always use "tassement" as an excuse.
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| Quote: |
I'm going to the PSB so Taos at Le Lac
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It's looking good for Le Lac skiing access/egress Dubmuffin
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