 Poster: A snowHead
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Haha many thanks. I'll also hope for a solid 6"
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The numbers can change in both directions, and the actual snow that falls can be more or less than was forecast. I don't pay too much attention to the precise snow depth which is forecast, especially more than 3 days out, but just think about the broader trend. Will it be a light snowfall, medium, large, mega, etc? I'll also think about what that trend means in terms of the change to skiing conditions. For example, 10cm or is not going to make a significant difference to the skiing conditions in most resorts, so a single light snowfall (whether that turns out to be 10 or 2cm) is not gong to improve things in any meaningful way.
Best not to place precise faith in the forecast depth of fresh snow and think about the broader trend, not least because local geographic factors, which the different meteorological models don't account for, can play a significant part in how much snow actually ends up on the ground.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| Whitegold wrote: |
Gaza -- It's already 20-40% of the way through the Alps' ski season (by days / revenue / profit), and bookings are down across the Alps, so it seems certain the season is not going to be a vintage one for most businesses in the region. |
Shop turnover (clothing sales, skis, ski hire, food) down 30 to 40%. Up to 100% of lift company seasonaires laid off depending on resort, even high altitude resorts have laid off staff. Hotels with big drop in bookings, apartments not so much.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Jones82 wrote: |
I've seen snow forecasts for my resort change from 10cm to 2cm but I've never seen 2cm change into 10cm if that makes sense!
Thanks |
You've been watching Snowforecast, you can always divide their figures by 2 to 4.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Bergfex forecast for Rauris was between 5 & 10cm on 2 days next week. Woke up to 1cm prediction on both days!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Back in the UK for a few days and I'm amazed to see that one of the Camelia shrubs in the garden has started to bloom. I think the earliest I've seen that happen is late February. Crazy warm!
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| Quote: |
back in the UK for a few days and I'm amazed to see that one of the Camelia shrubs in the garden has started to bloom.
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Hopefully it will regret it!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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mañana scorchio!
Pasado mañana, qué sorpresa, scorchio!
Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Tue 29-12-15 10:40; edited 1 time in total
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@davidof, think yesterday we came across the only business that is doing well out the current conditions, Refuge Napoleon just below the Col Izoard.
That's mainly because instead of having to walk for 7km to get there you can now drive up most of the way and only have to walk the last mile or so.
It was the most rammed I've ever seen it!
As for snow predictions when will people learn on here that it's all bollox as to depth and to where will actually get it.
It's the feckin mountains, and they have a habit of being able to have their own climates from one valley to another, so IT IS REALLY VERY COMMON to have 10cm in my garden and then 30cm fifteen mins drive away.
JLOTFW !!!
Out on the bike shortly exploring up another valley!
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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fin di semana
los avalanchas
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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| Quote: |
As for snow predictions when will people learn on here that it's all bollox as to depth and to where will actually get it.
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Probably about 5 minutes after they learn that their assessment of the snow/weather via the Internet from their office in London is not, in fact, more accurate than me looking out my window / going snowboarding.... 
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You know it makes sense.
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@stevomcd, 
JLOTFW
Just
Look
Out
The
Feckin
Window...........
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| Weathercam wrote: |
| @davidof, think yesterday we came across the only business that is doing well out the current conditions, Refuge Napoleon just below the Col Izoard. |
The terraces in Grenoble have been rammed the last few days, probably all the locals who haven't been up to resort.
Should be some good deals on skis.
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Poster: A snowHead
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@Weathercam, wasn't necessary to be quite so rude you could have made your point without it. And to be honest there is a lot more you can learn than you would by simply looking out of your window.
I think @rob@rar has it about right. One of the difficulties is that if you look at the ensemble forecast seven days out you'll almost certainly see a range of different ensembles going for different outcomes. This represents the range of possibilities. So you could have several of the different ensemble members showing no snow and one showing 20cms and a number with outcomes in between. So what you are actually being given is a range of probable outcomes. There is a weighting towards the operational run, but at distance this is less important. However, the majority of forecasts on the internet draw their data from the GFS op run, turning it into a graphic or figure. This is simple but does not actually show what is going on.
There is also a tendency to spot the most favourable outcome and assume that is the most probable outcome which can also distort things.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen, looking out the window is great for knowing what the weather is like right now, and maybe for that day. Nothing to beat it. But having an idea of the likely trend for the weather that week can be invaluable. When I'm teaching in the Alps it can be extremely helpful, for example, to have some idea if the first half of the week is going to have clear skies and the 2nd half of the week is going to be snowy as that has a major impact on my lesson plans. I'm not that interested in whether the forecast is 10cm or 20cm as that often translates in to something different on the ground, but a feel for the general trend and evolution of the weather pattern is extremely helpful. So for that you have my sincere gratitude for your running commentary and your insight. Definitely service above and beyond the call of duty.
Having said that, I understand the frustrations expressed by stevomcd and Weathercam with a very small number of posters (millom where are you now?) who take an argumentative stance with people in resort based on their webcammery and Googling.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Weathercam, wasn't necessary to be quite so rude you could have made your point without it. And to be honest there is a lot more you can learn than you would by simply looking out of your window.
... |
+1
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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| Ray Zorro wrote: |
| nozawaonsen wrote: |
@Weathercam, wasn't necessary to be quite so rude you could have made your point without it. And to be honest there is a lot more you can learn than you would by simply looking out of your window.
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+1 |
+2
Im currently looking out of the window at fields in the midlands UK
Not sure how that helps me when Im going skiing in Italy....... Dick
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@nozawaonsen, Keep up the amazing work!
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| Weathercam wrote: |
@davidof, think yesterday we came across the only business that is doing well out the current conditions, Refuge Napoleon just below the Col Izoard.
That's mainly because instead of having to walk for 7km to get there you can now drive up most of the way and only have to walk the last mile or so.
It was the most rammed I've ever seen it!
As for snow predictions when will people learn on here that it's all bollox as to depth and to where will actually get it.
It's the feckin mountains, and they have a habit of being able to have their own climates from one valley to another, so IT IS REALLY VERY COMMON to have 10cm in my garden and then 30cm fifteen mins drive away.
JLOTFW !!!
Out on the bike shortly exploring up another valley! |
Very arrogant and not at all helpful.
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| Minion1980 wrote: |
| Weathercam wrote: |
@davidof, think yesterday we came across the only business that is doing well out the current conditions, Refuge Napoleon just below the Col Izoard.
That's mainly because instead of having to walk for 7km to get there you can now drive up most of the way and only have to walk the last mile or so.
It was the most rammed I've ever seen it!
As for snow predictions when will people learn on here that it's all bollox as to depth and to where will actually get it.
It's the feckin mountains, and they have a habit of being able to have their own climates from one valley to another, so IT IS REALLY VERY COMMON to have 10cm in my garden and then 30cm fifteen mins drive away.
JLOTFW !!!
Out on the bike shortly exploring up another valley! |
Very arrogant and not at all helpful. |
+1 on that.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Looking out of the window is also a very dangerous approach to take in the mountains. Being aware of the forecast has saved a number of peoples lives over the years.
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The broad point that it is in effect impossible to predict snowfall to the cm in advance is of course true.
There is simply too much variation over small distances which can be caused by local shifts in wind direction, geographical features etc.
Add to that drifting and settling which can make it almost impossible to accurately what has fallen ( https://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/in-brief/4477/how-deep-snow ).
That doesn't mean you can't get a general sense of what is likely. However, for day before forecasts I've always found the weather forecasts on relevant Avalanche sites the most useful. And on the day it is undoubtedly helpful to at the very least glance out the window before leaving your house whilst having a hearty breakfast.
Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads  on Tue 29-12-15 12:26; edited 1 time in total
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@Weathercam, So you never use Windguru or the like to plan your kitesurfing?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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06z carries the unsettled theme through to mid January with repeated snow storms hitting the Alps (though primarily the northern Alps). Suggests some colder weather for the UK as well.
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| cad99uk wrote: |
| @Weathercam, So you never use Windguru or the like to plan your kitesurfing? |
Maybe not when someone lives actually on the beach, but when it takes at least an hour to pack the car and get to the beach those forecasts changed windsurfing from a hit and miss affair to being reasonably predictable when conditions would be worth the trip.
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You know it makes sense.
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Thanks @nozawaonsen, I also appreciate all of the effort you put on getting us the best prediction possible. Many thanks! I find it very useful.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Going to Soll on 16th. Looking promising that might be a bit better than things look at the moment. It just looks a little mild still but hopefully will pull some cold through with it.
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Poster: A snowHead
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I'd echo my thanks to @nozawaonsen. I'm flying to the Austrian alps on the 9th and you're information and interpretation is being spread amongst the family, so thank you.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen keep up the good work mate. I am off to Saas Fee on the 16th and this is the first year ever that I am worried about the snow conditions/quality. Any information on predicted snowfall is greatly appreciated.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I thought those numbers were her measurements 
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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@KennyEverett, And i thought the hand movement in the second picture was her chat up line ;-p
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Can anyone just give me straight answer? Where can I find forecast for snowfall amounts next week which can be relied on as accurate to nearest cm? (apologies if already asked/ answered)
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@peanuthead, in Neverland unfortunately 
i find snow-forcast.com ok but they tend to over egg snow fall until about 2 days out
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@peanuthead, as I understand it probability of precipitation is reasonably robust but quantity is much harder to forecast as is snow vs rain.
Accurate to the nearest cm?
You have to be joking.
Accurate to nearest 10cm not even possible, i.e. Could forecast 20cm in "Chamonix" which could vary hugely depending on height, aspect, wind, drifting, etc. which would not be in the forecast.
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FAQ
