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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
18z GFS shows snow for the northern Alps arriving I the west on 31 and leaving the east on 02 Jan. Then again on 05 Jan. After that snow on and off in FI for the rest of the run.

(The flip side being 30 Dec and 04 Jan look like they could bring substantial rain to parts of the UK which have already seen heavy rainfall).
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
How are north/south and east/west Alps defined?
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@gangstarrrrr, a few pages back on this thread had that question and answer session wink
Try http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=119317&start=800
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This mornings GFS ensemble is showing a little bit of confidence of a flutter of snow on Tuesday. Not been up the mountain yet but VT at resort level is looking better than I'd expected.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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Good to compare the start of this morning's ECM. And contrast it with the end of the run.

The high pressure (red) that has dominated the last month resolutely in charge. Sunshine and mild temperatures.



The fortress has fallen. Low pressure (blue) rushes in cool and snowy.

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noza,you are a star,and much respected on here, keep those updates on those emsembles coming as your understanding of their intracies are far better than any of us. We ski tour around Oetz, Seefeld, Hochzeiger,Ehrwald resorts as we have family friends who live in a village between all those ski villages. They have said that although the resort lift men, pisteurs, etc have been reduced during this spell, the resort managers, resort meteorologists are all ready to go and will call them back when they are sure the snow is coming - it will be mega Austrian efficiency in the fastest time possible, particularly as our friends kids have a week ski lessons as part of their school cirriculem. The Austrian Govt would never let their kids down for their weeks skiing in early Jan. Looks very positive from what I can work out looking at the wiggles, as its looks certain to get cold in the next week,which means snow cannons will be churning it out. The 2 problems that really exist are warm ground as the snow doesn't 'stick' as well and unless its really cold will waste some of the early snow as it will dissepate, and the ecologinists/council who only allow a certain amount of water to be used from the snow cannon resevoirs - could well have already used a large amount of the allocation I suspect. The other good news is something that I do believe in - probability - it can't happen that the Alps can go more than 6 weeks without a proper deluge of snow - never has, never will ( I hope anyway!) Have faith, by Jan 5th/6th it will be sorted! ( going on the 18th so it better be)
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
+100, interesting, educational, exciting and useful.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
chriswg wrote:
This mornings GFS ensemble is showing a little bit of confidence of a flutter of snow on Tuesday. Not been up the mountain yet but VT at resort level is looking better than I'd expected.


a couple of cms above 1500 meters in France. It could help make the man made snow a bit more skiable but won't do anything for where there is no snow but every little helps. Thursday/Friday should see some more precipitation. At what altitude and how much are what's critical.
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Amazed at how well the 3Vs have held up over Xmas week. Just been speaking to guest who left our apartment yesterday and they had a good weeks skiing. I can't imagine the resorts could keep this up for more than another week or so though.
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There seem to be fewer people skiing during Christmas week this year. I don't see many people walking past with skis. Maybe that's what makes current conditions more manageable for resorts. It's definitely quite a bit warmer than this time last year, so people are more inclined to do other things rather than ski.
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Perty wrote:
@Koleoptero, Sympathise. We went to Squaw in Jan 15 to visit Mr P's son who was instructing there last season. Terrible. Sat in shirtsleeves and skied mush for much of the 10 days we were there.
Now he is Vermont, also working as an instructor at a private ski club. It was 20C there yesterday....and the club had not opened! Meanwhile Squaw has already had more snow than the whole of last season.


Wow,that's bad @Perty ! But I heard there are some cold fronts reaching the East of USA this weekend. Good luck for him.
I was unlucky twice last year. First in California with just 92 cm in the season and then I booked 7 days first week of July at Valle Nevado/Chile and my reservation was cancelled due to no snow policy of the resort. Hopping to have good conditions till feb. Going to Andorra feb 10th.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, keep the updates coming. They're very much appreciated.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Not bragging but i went skiing on 29 december last year and it started snowing on the 27th. I'm going on jan 2nd this year and it looks like it's going to start snowing on december 31st. I'll let you know when i'm going next year so everyone plans accordingly Laughing Laughing
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
zinekar wrote:
Not bragging but i went skiing on 29 december last year and it started snowing on the 27th. I'm going on jan 2nd this year and it looks like it's going to start snowing on december 31st. I'll let you know when i'm going next year so everyone plans accordingly Laughing Laughing


I admire your confidence that everything is going to be fine. I'm already more than concerned and my trip starts a week later on the 9th of January.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@mikeycharlton but it does look promising a lot rn.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Sadly, as much as a change looks on the cards, it won't be anything like the game changer last winter after boxing day
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
emwmarine wrote:
Amazed at how well the 3Vs have held up over Xmas week. Just been speaking to guest who left our apartment yesterday and they had a good weeks skiing. I can't imagine the resorts could keep this up for more than another week or so though.


You'll be surprised. Once the xmas and new year crowds have left, and the piste groomers go to work, the snow quality will improve.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Up to 10 cm and then a few showers on top of it is not bad at all. It will save the 1st week of Jan
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It's interesting to read the reports from the various regions. Although the Sella Ronda has zero natural snow it would appear that the skiing conditions are much better. Although the lower resorts in the Western Alps have residual natural snow, the rocky sub-base is making the pistes very icy and stony. In contrast the grassy meadows of Austria and Italy are holding up well during the snow drought.
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Why would there not be a game changer in the offing when 35cms is predicted over the 4 days from the 31st? OK, ok, I fully accept that this needs to get within 3 days to be wholely accurate, but lets be positive this time and accept whats coming in good faith. The planets look as though they are lined up to produce some cold temps, which is our start point, and the ensembles are, at present, giving us the precipitation that is needed.
Lets go with it until something tells us otherwise, snow fans going after the 5th Jan or after should have a ball - just keep looking at the 3 day forecast and its generally pretty accurate
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oscarkat wrote:
snow fans going after the 5th Jan or after should have a ball


snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead snowHead
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@jellylegs, that old pasture versus rocks story wears as thin as the pistes. Wherever do you think French cows go in the summer? Laughing
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After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
pam w wrote:
@jellylegs, that old pasture versus rocks story wears as thin as the pistes. Wherever do you think French cows go in the summer? Laughing


Not all the way up the mountains. French mountains are generally higher than Austrian. Higher up is less hilly (I.e grassy) and more mountainous (I.e rocky).

Simple geology.
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@pam w, didn't you know that french cows feed on stones and rocks?
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@buchanan101, I'd guess the majority of French pistes are on pasture. Maybe that's why the ones I was skiing on yesterday, though with thin snow, had no stones.
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buchanan101 wrote:
pam w wrote:
@jellylegs, that old pasture versus rocks story wears as thin as the pistes. Wherever do you think French cows go in the summer? Laughing


Not all the way up the mountains. French mountains are generally higher than Austrian. Higher up is less hilly (I.e grassy) and more mountainous (I.e rocky).

Simple geology.


Geology ... What a load of .... rolling eyes rolling eyes rolling eyes
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
pam w wrote:
@buchanan101, I'd guess the majority of French pistes are on pasture. Maybe that's why the ones I was skiing on yesterday, though with thin snow, had no stones.


I must have been imagining walking through the grass pastures of the Belleville valley in the summer.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pam w wrote:
@buchanan101, I'd guess the majority of French pistes are on pasture. Maybe that's why the ones I was skiing on yesterday, though with thin snow, had no stones.


Ah... The old if a tree falls in the woods does it make a noise (or something like that). If the stones were covered how do you know there were no stones?

How high were you?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@buchanan101, i hiked in Fr mountains in summer, including the TMB, I saw grass in high areas that are flat(er). On steep sections there was no grass indeed, but this is equally the same in Fr, It, At or elswhere ... And I saw cows at and above 2000 m
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
This is what those "rocky" ski pistes look like in the summer



they bring in a bulldozer, then a machine that crushes all the surface rocks to gravel, then they plant genetically modified grass that can survive at altitude. These ski runs will be visible until the next ice age.
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 Poster: A snowHead
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mooney058 wrote:
And I saw cows at and above 2000 m


We have cows at 2100m in Tignes during the winter, although they are in a stable (cow shed). During the summer months they roam higher pastures fertilizing in a natural way Very Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
I was at 2000m which is as high as my area goes. the pistes - 195 kms- are pretty well all on pasture. I'd guess there are a lot more French pistes below 2000m - with cows - than above - with rocks
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@stewart woodward, investigated our local cheese offering last week. Summer Beaufort vs Winter Beaufort. Almost the same price but definitely a different taste!
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@andy1234, winter Beaufort for me Smile
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pam w wrote:
@jellylegs, that old pasture versus rocks story wears as thin as the pistes. Wherever do you think French cows go in the summer? Laughing


I agree it was a generalisation, but the fact remains, the reports coming out of the dolomites are much more positive than those i've read on the GM, PDS, La Plagne pages. Perhaps there's a less obvious reason??

And French cows, they go to mootiers for the summer NehNeh
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Oh dear: not onto French cow jokes now ...oh dear, oh dear, moo-là là Laughing
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@jellylegs, better marketing?
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
geoffers wrote:
Oh dear: not onto French cow jokes now ...oh dear, oh dear, moo-là là Laughing


Herd 'em all before .....
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Pull the udder one.
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@mooney058, agreed, the winter Beaufort is better, sharper taste.
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