 Poster: A snowHead
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@iopjkl, "NO BATTLE plan ever survives first contact with the enemy,”
In this case, those plans were totally inadequate for a disease so serious, and so transmissible.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| cheburator wrote: |
What you are arguing is because one didn't drop the apple we don't know that it would have fallen to the floor. Most people don't have to drop the apple to know that it would fall. |
You have no idea...
Clearly millions of Swedish citizens are strewn across the streets of Stockholm, Gothenburg, Orebro and Uppsalla, dead and left for all to see, while the terminally ill 30yrs old vixens are staggering around begging for food...
If you have no idea about numbers, don't start a debate which involves numbers...
Or go back and hide in the cellar, because COVID... 
same in[/quote]
You are comparing apples to oranges I am afraid. Firstly Sweden has had restrictions and social distances etc. and it has had much better compliance with the restrictions by the population than was the case in the UK. Then in December Sweden need help from other nations as their health service was finally overwhelmed as these restrictions eventually proved to be insufficient. Sweden is now in a lockdown like everyone else and has had a much higher death rate.
So again do you have ANY evidence to suggest that if left untreated that the mortality rate in hospitalised patients (aka those given oxygen) is not close to 100%? Because if the ~450k people who have been treated in hospital over the last 12 months all needed treatment in 2-3 months period if the infection was left to rip then around 400k would be dead. Are you arguing that the UK has the capacity to deal with the funerals of around half a million people in a three month period without using mass graves?
I have ideas about numbers, I laid them out and you have presented no valid counter arguments.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@Alastair Pink, Maybe they should change the URL to "don't travel with confidence"
Not surprising really and at least gives people certainty
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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The horrible gut feeling I had about this season since last April is turning out to be correct. Trouble is I still have it about next.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@Boris, yes, obviously going on holiday from the UK is illegal at the moment anyway, but once that restriction is lifted I guess there were some people who were hoping to get in a late season ski trip if there were destinations open to UK visitors with open ski areas. That might still be possible to a few places (though looking increasingly unlikely), but one thing is for certain, they won't be going with Crystal. 
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Listening to the noises coming from central government, they are talking about having a daily case rate of less than 1000 before substantial reopening of travel or hospitality. That equates to a UK wide 7-day per 100,000 case-rate of around 11.0 . It is currently around 140.0 . To put that in context, the last time we were at that level was mid August 2020.
We have a current case rate halving time of around 16 days. My modeling shows that we should get to 11.0 around 18th April 2021 assuming opening up the schools on 8th March does not change the rate of decline.
Either central government is giving us the good-cop bad-cop routine, or we have a substantial wait.
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@ringingmaster, I've done those sorts of extrapolations too, with similar conclusions. And actually to ski you would need to do similar calculations for the destination country, for example while France has done well avoiding another peak there is no sign yet of significant decline that you can even extrapolate from.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Had the email I'd been dreading (but of course expecting) from Crystal earlier. Booked with TUI due to their decent reputation when cancelling (refund or rebook) and COVID conditions so have decided to shift the booking to the same date next season (same hotel). With the 20% rebooking sweetener I'm not any worse off (actually £60 better off) so I'm happy with that.
A word of note though, booking are getting snapped up. Only 2 suites left in the hotel we're going to on that date in March next year. I wouldn't want to leave booking late as I usually do.
Will also take the opportunity to get a cheeky 4 nighter away earlier in the season with just the mrs seeing as I won't be paying again next year. I can deal with that.
Just glad we got to go last year before it all hit the fan. There's definitely a bonus of a Jan ski trip even if it is cold and gets dark earlier.
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| robboj wrote: |
The horrible gut feeling I had about this season since last April is turning out to be correct. Trouble is I still have it about next. |
God I hope you're wrong. The thought of being able to go away next winter is pretty much the only thing keeping me going right now.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
Listening to the noises coming from central government, they are talking about having a daily case rate of less than 1000 before substantial reopening of travel or hospitality. That equates to a UK wide 7-day per 100,000 case-rate of around 11.0 . It is currently around 140.0 . To put that in context, the last time we were at that level was mid August 2020.
We have a current case rate halving time of around 16 days. My modeling shows that we should get to 11.0 around 18th April 2021 assuming opening up the schools on 8th March does not change the rate of decline.
Either central government is giving us the good-cop bad-cop routine, or we have a substantial wait. |
This is what I don't get, what truly keeps me awake at night. Why if the numbers of deaths and serious illnesses that require ICU are low and heading towards zero does it matter how many folk are inconvenienced by moderate at worst cold and flu symptoms for a few days.
If we got that low last summer without vaccines then I'm sure we'll be tickety boo this and every other summer coming. Problem is that for at least the next few winters the cases will go up and we'll not be going anywhere near an Alp.
It's not just no Alps, it's all this shït every winter and even if we did get to the Alps it being more of an ordeal than a holiday.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@robboj, I think the concern is to keep case levels really low whilst a large % of the adult population are unvaccinated. People who are 30-50 (say) may have a very low chance of getting ill-but a small probability x a large number (E.g. around 20 million in that age range?) of people can still equal lots of people needing hospital care.
When all adults have been vaccinated, then I think you're definitely right-you've pretty much eliminated the risk of serious illness, lift everything and crack on.
And whoever has decided not to take a vaccine will have to take the risk-I can't see any reason at all for keeping restrictions because of the refusniks. There will be a less than 100% effectiveness like any vaccine, but maybe our old friend herd immunity (remember him from last year?) should come to our rescue.
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| robboj wrote: |
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does it matter how many folk are inconvenienced by moderate at worst cold and flu symptoms for a few day
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@robboj, As someone who's sister has gone from healthy 46 year old to still almost totally incapacitated 11 months after 10 days in Annecy ICU with COVID in April 2020, I somewhat disagree with the assertion. Long-COVID is a serious problem that cannot be ignored.
Last edited by So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much  on Tue 16-02-21 16:05; edited 2 times in total
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You know it makes sense.
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@snowhound, thanks for that, I hope you're right. My glass is decidedly half empty today.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| snowhound wrote: |
@robboj, I think the concern is to keep case levels really low whilst a large % of the adult population are unvaccinated. People who are 30-50 (say) may have a very low chance of getting ill-but a small probability x a large number (E.g. around 20 million in that age range?) of people can still equal lots of people needing hospital care.
When all adults have been vaccinated, then I think you're definitely right-you've pretty much eliminated the risk of serious illness, lift everything and crack on.
And whoever has decided not to take a vaccine will have to take the risk-I can't see any reason at all for keeping restrictions because of the refusniks. There will be a less than 100% effectiveness like any vaccine, but maybe our old friend herd immunity (remember him from last year?) should come to our rescue. |
That's pretty much my thinking. If we can't open up once the adults have been vaccinated, then I'm not entirely sure what the point of anything is anymore. I think it's right to keep restrictions in place unlit then, but we can't just carry on like this for ever.
The vaccine only needs to be about 60/70% effective for it to work, which it seems to be, so I'm keeping everything crossed. As for the refusniks, I'd either make vaccination compulsory for those that can safely have it (not the first time the UK has done that) or at least do similar to what Australia have done in the past, not make it mandatory, but refuse access to certain things unless you've had a vaccine. I don't say that lightly either. I'm acutely aware of the moral implications of such a policy.
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| snowhound wrote: |
@robboj, I think the concern is to keep case levels really low whilst a large % of the adult population are unvaccinated. People who are 30-50 (say) may have a very low chance of getting ill-but a small probability x a large number (E.g. around 20 million in that age range?) of people can still equal lots of people needing hospital care.
When all adults have been vaccinated, then I think you're definitely right-you've pretty much eliminated the risk of serious illness, lift everything and crack on.
And whoever has decided not to take a vaccine will have to take the risk-I can't see any reason at all for keeping restrictions because of the refusniks. There will be a less than 100% effectiveness like any vaccine, but maybe our old friend herd immunity (remember him from last year?) should come to our rescue. |
That's pretty much my thinking. If we can't open up once the adults have been vaccinated, then I'm not entirely sure what the point of anything is anymore. I think it's right to keep restrictions in place unlit then, but we can't just carry on like this for ever.
The vaccine only needs to be about 60/70% effective for it to work, which it seems to be, so I'm keeping everything crossed. As for the refusniks, I'd either make vaccination compulsory for those that can safely have it (not the first time the UK has done that) or at least do similar to what Australia have done in the past, not make it mandatory, but refuse access to certain things unless you've had a vaccine. I don't say that lightly either. I'm acutely aware of the moral implications of such a policy. |
Israel is threatening to make it compulsory to have a (very uncomfortable) test twice a week if you are not vaccinated.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
| Timmycb5 wrote: |
| snowhound wrote: |
@robboj, I think the concern is to keep case levels really low whilst a large % of the adult population are unvaccinated. People who are 30-50 (say) may have a very low chance of getting ill-but a small probability x a large number (E.g. around 20 million in that age range?) of people can still equal lots of people needing hospital care.
When all adults have been vaccinated, then I think you're definitely right-you've pretty much eliminated the risk of serious illness, lift everything and crack on.
And whoever has decided not to take a vaccine will have to take the risk-I can't see any reason at all for keeping restrictions because of the refusniks. There will be a less than 100% effectiveness like any vaccine, but maybe our old friend herd immunity (remember him from last year?) should come to our rescue. |
That's pretty much my thinking. If we can't open up once the adults have been vaccinated, then I'm not entirely sure what the point of anything is anymore. I think it's right to keep restrictions in place unlit then, but we can't just carry on like this for ever.
The vaccine only needs to be about 60/70% effective for it to work, which it seems to be, so I'm keeping everything crossed. As for the refusniks, I'd either make vaccination compulsory for those that can safely have it (not the first time the UK has done that) or at least do similar to what Australia have done in the past, not make it mandatory, but refuse access to certain things unless you've had a vaccine. I don't say that lightly either. I'm acutely aware of the moral implications of such a policy. |
Israel is threatening to make it compulsory to have a (very uncomfortable) test twice a week if you are not vaccinated. |
Can't really argue against that.
Also reminds me of a sign outside my inlaw's local bakers..... "Please wear a mask. If you don't wear a mask, we will need to take your temperature, and we only have rectal thermometers".
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| jabuzzard wrote: |
You are comparing apples to oranges I am afraid. Firstly Sweden has had restrictions and social distances etc. and it has had much better compliance with the restrictions by the population than was the case in the UK. Then in December Sweden need help from other nations as their health service was finally overwhelmed as these restrictions eventually proved to be insufficient. |
I’m not pushing the Swedish model as I don’t really know enough about it, but i thought that compliance with restrictions in the UK had amazed the boffins? I’m sure I read they expected c75% compliance and they’ve actually had 90%+? And most transmission hasn’t come from rule breaking/non-compliance but from people doing things that were allowed (like going to work, travelling there etc)?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
| robboj wrote: |
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does it matter how many folk are inconvenienced by moderate at worst cold and flu symptoms for a few day
...
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@robboj, As someone who's sister has gone from healthy 46 year old to still almost totally incapacitated 11 months after 10 days in Annecy ICU with COVID in April 2020, I somewhat disagree with the assertion. Long-COVID is a serious problem that cannot be ignored. |
Sorry to hear that and yes its a matter of concern as to why that should happen but if she had 10 days in ICU then she must have had more than a moderate case of Covid. A lot of data is needed yet but if the initial signs about the rates of serious cases are accurate then hopefully very few will go on to suffer like your sister. I sincerely hope she gets better.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Timmycb5, I can see where they’re coming from for this new policy but it does annoy me that this was never part of the lockdown 3 ‘deal’ and not one of the metrics which were initially mentioned. And it was entirely predictable. Remember the ‘save it for Easter’ message? Those people shouting about goalpost shifting have a point and all it does is reduce people’s motivation to comply when they wonder what reason they’ll come up with next for delaying further.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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Just found out our trip to la plagne at 10th April is cancelled. Not that surprising but confirms this season is over
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| ringingmaster wrote: |
Listening to the noises coming from central government, they are talking about having a daily case rate of less than 1000 before substantial reopening of travel or hospitality. That equates to a UK wide 7-day per 100,000 case-rate of around 11.0 . It is currently around 140.0 . To put that in context, the last time we were at that level was mid August 2020.
We have a current case rate halving time of around 16 days. My modeling shows that we should get to 11.0 around 18th April 2021 assuming opening up the schools on 8th March does not change the rate of decline.
Either central government is giving us the good-cop bad-cop routine, or we have a substantial wait. |
A few key dates I've heard:
22nd Feb - Johnson to announce plans for next period of restrictions. Expected to include some degree of loosening.
8th March - Schools open
29th March - Three weeks later, which is the period the government have been advised to leave between rule changes, so the implications of one rule change can be assessed.
31st March - The last day of lockdown under current legislation. Johnson will need to convince a lot of skeptical tories if lockdown is to be extended beyond this date, and as your modelling shows the per 100,000 rate should be much lower by then.
So my guess is that next week he will announce a significant easing of restrictions from 1st April. Something along the lines of Tier 2 from the autumn (maybe a bit stricter, depending on the reaction of his MPs).
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@thelem, they’ve actually got a perfect short window of opportunity coming up to see what effect (if any given a report out yesterday showing schools lag communities in terms of infections) schools have because they close anyway at the end of March! They can then try something else for the first weeks of April whilst schools are on holiday.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@thelem, I hadn't seen that three week suggestion.
I have long suspected that, symbolically, Johnson would like to end what we hope will be the last lockdown on March 23rd, the anniversary of the start of the first.
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If schools start to return on March 8th it will be at least 3 weeks before the effect of that is seen
If other relaxation is allowed we will be back on the roller coaster hopefully to a much lesser level but every chance of issues in 8 weeks if things go to quickly
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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| j b wrote: |
| I have long suspected that, symbolically, Johnson would like to end what we hope will be the last lockdown on March 23rd, the anniversary of the start of the first. |
He could maybe put us back in tier 3 on that date, with a further relaxation in April. Depends on how willing he is to rely on Labour.
There's not much pressure for him to relax travel restrictions before the end of the ski season. Quite the opposite, as Scotland are quarantining everyone flying in from abroad, and want England to do the same.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Boris will announce COvid beaten one year on, call an end to lockdown and move us into a new three month circuit breaker, followed by six weeks of Tier 5.
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You know it makes sense.
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The big problem once European nations have got the numbers down, will be keeping the virus out. As an island, I think that we could have done better, but continental borders are porous too of course. Various snowheads threads have shown skiers keen to work around border control rules; there will be non-skiers doing much the same. And whilst each individual lorry/van driver is a low threat, their combined effect must be considerable.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@achilles, half the problem is that we don't know how big the problem is.
Clearly a year ago when there were hardly any UK cases, even a low proportion of travellers carrying infection seeded a surge right across the country. Right now, with relatively few travellers mostly from countries with similar incidence, it isnt clear that it is actually a big problem. Everyone is worried about new variants, but by the time they are identified it is already too late to stop their spread, ultimately they just underline the need for a global effort towards vaccination.
It worries me that unless you are realistic, you are chasing the impossible. New Zealand put a whole region into lockdown at a time when they are only recording 1-2 cases a day!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| snowhound wrote: |
| @Timmycb5, I can see where they’re coming from for this new policy but it does annoy me that this was never part of the lockdown 3 ‘deal’ and not one of the metrics which were initially mentioned. And it was entirely predictable. Remember the ‘save it for Easter’ message? Those people shouting about goalpost shifting have a point and all it does is reduce people’s motivation to comply when they wonder what reason they’ll come up with next for delaying further. |
Thats the thing that bothers me. It obviously doesn't bother enough people with shorter memories. In terms of the communications from the outset I've often thought that it can't possibly be this bad unless its wholly intentional and thus the sheer extent of opinions and views reported, official or otherwise, are indeed deliberate to confuse expectation.
They keep pushing it out further because they see people accepting that. Its probably helped by the above but maximised by a constantly stoked blaze of fear with the mutations being the preferred fuel at this time.
At some point there will be a sizeable, maybe even a majority pushback. I've no idea what the triggers will be but I think it's bound to happen.
They just better hope that the country as a whole is not like the quiet person whom takes and takes the abuse until such times as their protagonist comes to on the floor wondering where all the budgies came from?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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If memory serves, I'm sure the message at start of new year was if priority groups vaccinated by Feb we can look at easing restrictions.
Priority groups now seem to everyone!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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| robboj wrote: |
Thats the thing that bothers me. It obviously doesn't bother enough people with shorter memories. In terms of the communications from the outset I've often thought that it can't possibly be this bad unless its wholly intentional and thus the sheer extent of opinions and views reported, official or otherwise, are indeed deliberate to confuse expectation.
They keep pushing it out further because they see people accepting that. Its probably helped by the above but maximised by a constantly stoked blaze of fear with the mutations being the preferred fuel at this time.
At some point there will be a sizeable, maybe even a majority pushback. I've no idea what the triggers will be but I think it's bound to happen.
They just better hope that the country as a whole is not like the quiet person whom takes and takes the abuse until such times as their protagonist comes to on the floor wondering where all the budgies came from? |
I'm pretty sure that most people will remain bothered by continuing restrictions except if they are misanthropic hermits. The problem is that there isn't a "they" as in a shadowy controlling body with a god's eye view and ranting about mutations being a propaganda tool just makes you look more like a conspiracy theorist than a pragmatist.
Yes it galls me that ministers largely go about their lives as normal (workplace, travel around the country to put on a labcoat or a hard hat etc, no doubt flitting between London and other homes) while most of us haven't had normality in a year but I don't think they actively want to keep us down longer than is absolutely necessary. The challenge is determining the boundaries on that necessity. Sunak's "Eat Out" giveaway in hindsight looks like the most disastrous policy imaginable as an example.
I personally think the government will have to grasp teh nettle and declare that a death rate of X is acceptable as a price for us continuing our lives. And I think it's fair to say that relatively minor societal changes like mask wearing indoors/on public transport might be an acceptable part of that deal.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Boris wrote: |
If memory serves, I'm sure the message at start of new year was if priority groups vaccinated by Feb we can look at easing restrictions.
Priority groups now seem to everyone! |
Yep, IIRC timelines discussed since the vaccine announcements have thus far included the words February, March, Spring, Easter, April, May, early Summer, Summer, late Summer, September, Autumn and 'by the end of this year' and probably more.
It can only be deliberate to try and manage expectations by ensuring people have absolutely no idea what those expectations are.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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It strikes me that it's time this thread was either renamed for next season, or a new thread started. It's drifted way off anyway, with most of the sentiments being repeated on other Covid threads.
Let's face it, with the exception of the few lucky ones who live near certain hills, this season was/is never going to start for anybody currently in the UK. Even if we get out of lockdown, most of the European Countries will still have serious restrictions for many months and are not going to let us in. Even if they did, there will be complications on return. Forget it.
Lets all just move on and be optimistic about the future, and the remote possibility of a late summer trip as a trial run for the winter season.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
| robboj wrote: |
Thats the thing that bothers me. It obviously doesn't bother enough people with shorter memories. In terms of the communications from the outset I've often thought that it can't possibly be this bad unless its wholly intentional and thus the sheer extent of opinions and views reported, official or otherwise, are indeed deliberate to confuse expectation.
They keep pushing it out further because they see people accepting that. Its probably helped by the above but maximised by a constantly stoked blaze of fear with the mutations being the preferred fuel at this time.
At some point there will be a sizeable, maybe even a majority pushback. I've no idea what the triggers will be but I think it's bound to happen.
They just better hope that the country as a whole is not like the quiet person whom takes and takes the abuse until such times as their protagonist comes to on the floor wondering where all the budgies came from? |
I'm pretty sure that most people will remain bothered by continuing restrictions except if they are misanthropic hermits. The problem is that there isn't a "they" as in a shadowy controlling body with a god's eye view and ranting about mutations being a propaganda tool just makes you look more like a conspiracy theorist than a pragmatist.
Yes it galls me that ministers largely go about their lives as normal (workplace, travel around the country to put on a labcoat or a hard hat etc, no doubt flitting between London and other homes) while most of us haven't had normality in a year but I don't think they actively want to keep us down longer than is absolutely necessary. The challenge is determining the boundaries on that necessity. Sunak's "Eat Out" giveaway in hindsight looks like the most disastrous policy imaginable as an example.
I personally think the government will have to grasp teh nettle and declare that a death rate of X is acceptable as a price for us continuing our lives. And I think it's fair to say that relatively minor societal changes like mask wearing indoors/on public transport might be an acceptable part of that deal. |
'They' are the government and their advisors, I never said or implied anything different. Of course mutation is a genuine concern but FWIW and IMHO the current mutations are being used as a propaganda tool and perhaps that's with good enough reason for now and until such times as the vaccinations get to where they need to be.
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| brianatab wrote: |
It strikes me that it's time this thread was either renamed for next season, or a new thread started. It's drifted way off anyway, with most of the sentiments being repeated on other Covid threads.
Let's face it, with the exception of the few lucky ones who live near certain hills, this season was/is never going to start for anybody currently in the UK. Even if we get out of lockdown, most of the European Countries will still have serious restrictions for many months and are not going to let us in. Even if they did, there will be complications on return. Forget it.
Lets all just move on and be optimistic about the future, and the remote possibility of a late summer trip as a trial run for the winter season. |
You're quite right but my earlier posts about the terminology used including 'by the end of the year' impacts upon next season and thus my gut feeling that it could be seriously affected. Right now I think that we, as in the British, will be able to go. But I'm not so sure that Alpine countries will be able to have us. I really hope I'm wrong
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Some of our politicians (and their highly influential advisors) are making it increasingly clear that while they might reluctantly permit us to holiday internally within the UK by some time in the summer, they have no intention of allowing unquarantined international leisure travel. From their standpoint, they find it annoying that people should persist in wanting such a frivolous luxury.
Especially when there's a worldwide pandemic, with risk of further variants. And while millions endure disease & poverty & deprivation etc [insert list of evils which aren't going to end any time soon].
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| Dave of the Marmottes wrote: |
Yes it galls me that ministers largely go about their lives as normal (workplace, travel around the country to put on a labcoat or a hard hat etc, no doubt flitting between London and other homes) while most of us haven't had normality in a year but I don't think they actively want to keep us down longer than is absolutely necessary. The challenge is determining the boundaries on that necessity. Sunak's "Eat Out" giveaway in hindsight looks like the most disastrous policy imaginable as an example. |
Note that it is only "Westminster" ministers that are doing that. Ministers in devolved nations are simply not doing jollies around the country for press opportunities.
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No but they are the ones most anti- leisure travel.
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FAQ
