 Poster: A snowHead
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Any links to the charts? Thanks.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Hey 18Z. How you doin'
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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It sure was 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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...it's just a long range forecast ...it's just a long range forecast...
...must resist ...urge to ...overreact
...
ITS GOING TO SNOW SO FRICKIN HARD!!!
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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I don't understand the graphs, in the same way I don't understand most foreign languages when spoken to me, but I like the cut of your jib!
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It can snow all it wants just not on the morning of the 2nd when I transfer 
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| Quote: |
It can snow all it wants just not on the morning of the 2nd when I transfer
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If thats the only day it snows i'll take a 12 hour transfer and good skiing the rest of the week thanks
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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@Tom B82, absolutely!
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@nozawaonsen, that's good, is it?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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At last some snow showing up on these.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@snowheads68, it is, though be careful as it will come and go as the pattern shift comes into range.
06z has snow across the Alps arriving in New Year's Eve followed up by a further burst on 01/02 January.
Out in FI more snow on 03 Jan with low pressure developing in the Mediterranean and hitting the southern Alps as well as the Pyrenees.
Details are shifting from run to run, but there are increasing indications of a shift to the predominant pattern at the end of the year.
However, ECM is still not for turning. And without that caution is the watchword.
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| Quote: |
| mountainaddict wrote:what exactly are ECM and GFS?? |
The ever so helpful response that was posted was to send a link to the Google search page, which included a p1$$ taking message saying 'Was that so difficult?'
But wouldn't typing the words 'They are computer generated weather models' have been easier? (Though obviously nowhere near as hilarious.)
I must do the same in response to fellow Snowhead queries. In fact why doesn't Admin simply replace the whole website with a link to Google?
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You know it makes sense.
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@mountainaddict I received an email notifying me of a new post, and logged in hoping ECM was now predicting the same cold snowy weather GFS is.
Instead it was you having a lengthy whine about someone giving you a humerous answer to a question that gets asked in some form or another at least once a page, and has a dedicated sticky providing the info you required. Perhaps the fact you have several thousand posts but still chose this course of action was the reason you received the response you did.....
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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| mountainaddict wrote: |
| Quote: |
| mountainaddict wrote:what exactly are ECM and GFS?? |
The ever so helpful response that was posted was to send a link to the Google search page, which included a p1$$ taking message saying 'Was that so difficult?'
But wouldn't typing the words 'They are computer generated weather models' have been easier? (Though obviously nowhere near as hilarious.)
I must do the same in response to fellow Snowhead queries. In fact why doesn't Admin simply replace the whole website with a link to Google? |
I would have responded with a sensible answer if i'd have know that the link posted took you to that page.
But yes they are computer generated weather forecast models. The ECMWF model is a European based model and is updated twice a day. The GFS model is North American based and is produced four times a day. Along with other forecast models such as GEM & UKMO and other weather based data, forecasters can use these charts to give a weather forecast. For a few days ahead, they should all ideally show the same or similar charts (but not always the case). Roughly five or more days in the future, they are unlikely to show similar charts (but sometimes they do). This is just a brief summary of them!!
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Poster: A snowHead
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| Nelbert75 wrote: |
@mountainaddict I received an email notifying me of a new post, and logged in hoping ECM was now predicting the same cold snowy weather GFS is.
Instead it was you having a lengthy whine about someone giving you a humerous answer to a question that gets asked in some form or another at least once a page, and has a dedicated sticky providing the info you required. Perhaps the fact you have several thousand posts but still chose this course of action was the reason you received the response you did..... |
Or perhaps someone could have just pointed mountainaddict to the sticky at the top of the page?
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Scotland also looks like it could pick up more snow from the turn of the year though continuing stormy.
Cairngorm
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=57.2&lon=-3.8
@mountainaddict, GFS is a US weather model run four times a day (00z, 06z, 12z, 18z) out to 16 days. It is widely used as the basis for most (not all) forecasts you come across on the Internet, largely because the US approach to government data means it is given away free. Almost all these forecasts simply use the main GFS operational run rather than try to represent the complexity of the full ensemble run (made up of 20 ensembles).
ECM is the European model (actually based in Reading) run twice a day out to 10 days with 50 ensemble members. The European model is generally (though not be everyone) recognised to be slightly better than the US one. Though that does not mean it is always correct and GFS always wrong.
There are other models (the Met Office has it's own one). But not that many as they require super computers to be run on.
http://www.ecmwf.int/en/about/what-we-do/supercomputer-centre
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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MetO UK outlook looks pretty grim out to mid January.
More rain and gales for the north west on top of the flooding yesterday. There is currently a warning out for up to another 6inches of rain over Christmas in the hills. Terrible news.
A few cooler spells and always drier in the south east from this set up, but no signal for any significant pattern change well into the foreseeable future. Hope its wrong.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast 
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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Yes the possible shift being signalled by GFS relates to the high pressure over continental Europe. If that moves it allows the Atlantic (wet and mild) weather reaching the UK to travel on to the Alps bringing snow in the mountains, but it's a downstream shift as far as the UK is concerned.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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mayrhofen......Nice!!
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Does that not look a touch on the warm side??
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how do i get that ^^^^ for Passo Tonale? Apologied, no doubts has been asked many times before.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| mattiwilkin wrote: |
| Does that not look a touch on the warm side?? |
Looks to be going back down to the 30 year average after a warm 4 or 5 days
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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@mattiwilkin, I think there is something odd about wetter.de at present. The 30 year mean shouldn't be gapped like that and then it seems out of sync.
This is how it appears on meteociel.
http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47&lon=12
That wouldn't be a huge amount of snow in a single fall, but regular medium top ups over several days.
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| zzz wrote: |
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MS_746_ens.png
If this comes to fruition in Morzine we are going to need a boat! |
Average temp when the precipitation falls is only 1 to 3deg above 30 year average. Wouldn't have thought rain/snow split was that borderline in January
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You know it makes sense.
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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Cheers @noza I have no idea what any of it actually means 
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Poster: A snowHead
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| scotspikey wrote: |
| Cheers @noza I have no idea what any of it actually means |
Looking possible that there will be continuous moderate amounts of snow for a week from ~30/12
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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@nozawaonsen,
That does look better but as you say, still on the warm side.
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Great to see all the cannons firing again on the web cams in Tonale. Come what may, starting to think its gonna be alright.........
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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| Quote: |
| Cheers noza I have no idea what any of it actually means. |
Don't worry scotspikey - someone will be along soon to abuse you for having the temerity to ask a question on something you don't understand....
Thanks nozawaonsen and jimmybog for your constructive and helpful responses to my query.
| Quote: |
| Or perhaps someone could have just pointed mountainaddict to the sticky at the top of the page? |
Have to say....hadn't noticed that before. Oops... And ta for that.
Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Wed 23-12-15 20:52; edited 1 time in total
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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I like the way the graphs describe the weather, is there anywhere I can get more accurate ones? I mean more accurate as in longitude and latitude rather than predicting the future
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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nozawaonsen should have his own BBC channel, he's bloody brilliant.
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@rogg, Just to add to your helpful reply.
And to change the time of the run change the run=
So run=12 will give the 12Z run. 18Z not out yet so will get yesterday if put run=18 at this time.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Decent 12z GFS suggesting colder and snowier weather in the Alps from 31 December. But. ECM is being pig headed.
Also some quite powerful storms starting to be shown heading towards the UK 30/31 December.
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At what point (days in advance), can we assume that these forecasts are going to be reasonably accurate?
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FAQ
