 Poster: A snowHead
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Will's bar, the Flying Squirrel, is in 'Plan Peisey', near the link between the two big domains that make up Paradiski, on the Les Arcs side. Les Arcs and La Plagne were joined by the Vanoise Express cable car at the start of last season. The village on the Les Arcs side is Peisey.
As you ski down the red (or blue) on the approach to the Vanoise Express, about 200 yards before you get to the bottom of the slope you go past a hotel on your left, "La Vanoise". Or rather, don't go past it. Stop in front of it, walk down the road about a couple of hundred yards until you get to a large block on your right. The Flying Squirrel is one of the shops along the roadside in this block.
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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PG, of course if it doesn't snow soon then that may be "...as you WALK down the red (or blue) on the approach...." 
jungle_ranger, welcome as well (although new here myself), there's a bunch of us off to Arc 1950 on 22nd, currently we're having a collective worry about the weather but hopefully things will change in the next week or so...
Last edited by Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person on Tue 11-01-05 19:31; edited 1 time in total
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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PG, thanks PG. dropped you an email
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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you gotta have faith zippy. meteo france is now showing snow for this thursday
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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zippy, funnily enough as I wrote the post I was thinking that just a couple of weeks back when I last went to the Flying Squirrel, I could ski down the road from the hotel to his bar 
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yep that they do but if you have a shufti at the postings from skanky you'll see the long-range forecasts can vary wildly between different types, so we're all relying on PG - our man at the scene - to give us the real deal when he sees it out his window!! 
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Hello all, and welcome jungle_ranger. 
Well the GFS has decided it isn't going to snow next week after all. 
The thing is don't take anything over ten days with confidence. take a week to ten days with low confidence, and up to a week depending on teh situation (some low pressure systems are a buggar to forecast in detail).
Thursday's looking like it'll be the definition of the word "dusting" and I think most models agree on this (their precipitation maps tend to be for different time periods though, so I often get the comparisons wrong). One or two are showing higher totals, though no more than 5-10cm in 12 hours.
Anyway, there's some agreement about this weekend now, and it's mainly a high pressure ridge over Europe, with mild days and cold(ish) nights. Maybe some artificial snow, at least, but no natural stuff until after Monday, with a reasonably high degree of confidence. Around Tuesday there's a couple of models still suggesting a front could come through, GFS has plumped for the high to re-establish itself, and others seem to be halfway between the two.....so who knows. 
FAX charts currently out to Sunday, so by the time I leave on Friday, we should know about Tuesday and have a reasonable idea about the rest of the week.
It's all gonna change again, and it's a helluva rollercoaster ride. Look Mum, no hands!
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Weather flash! Les Arcs is due snow tomorrow! Sadly, only a few centimetres....
There is talk of some snow starting from Friday 14th, but everyone seems a bit cagey about it.
I'll be renting out my mountain bike for anyone interested however 
Apols for lack of posting recently, but the winter is on me now (all bar the snow), and simply not getting time.
Not been skiing in the squirrel costume yet either - wwe were planning a big fancy dress race tomorrow, but the snow is a bit too dangerous for racing in silly clothing - had quite a few injuries in the resort already, my staff not excluded. Ho hum.
"Naked snow prayer" dance classes commence this week...
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flying_squirrel, welcome back. I'll be taking my hiking boots anyway, should I expect to use them up the mountain?
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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skanky, why do GFS even bother? The 10-14 day outlook always starts with dark blue areas but as time gets closer it just goes! Have you got links to more trusted sites that at least give a dusting in the new few days?
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, hopefully they will stay packed away, but I've given up on any real predictions...
It will be fine as long as we get a foot or so in the next week and it cools down a bit - serious tanning weather right now!
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micksup, try JMA for an optimistic look, otherwsie stick to FAX output for more reliable forecasts, all on the same site. The models tend to have problems with high pressure blocks (and GFS especially). Other situations they can cope with better. They're always looking to improve the models, and they bwil get better - but it's a chaotic system and you don't have to be out by much initially for it to greatly increase.
flying_squirrel, not sure temperature-wise (I'm not good enough to work it out from the charts accurately yet), but I think it'll cool slightly, then warm up over the weekend, then may cool a bit. If the high settles in there will at least be cold nights. Can't see as much as a foot or so at the moment, either.
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You know it makes sense.
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skanky, JAM better but most do seem to show at least some cloud cover for Thursday and who knows what may fall? The Fax chart though has changed in the last 2 hours and shows less that first predicted. After 10 days watching I am reaching a conclusion that they make them up and then fill in the gaps when they 'really' know! What is the trusted National Forecast site for France and/or Switzerland?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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micksup, dunno but wouldn't mind finding - all the ones I've found have had poor graphics, incomprehensible text (my fault there) or are subscription only. Most of this stuff is raw model output and needs forecaster adjustments to make a proper forecast. The FAX chart you're looking at is the USAF one I think which probably uses GFS data (though i don't know). They show the state in 24 hourly intervals so it's difficult to see how much they're thinking for the Alps. Look at the other FAX charts (though they don't indicate precipitation). There will be something on Thursday over the Alps, but some places will get more than others and nowhere will get lots, I think.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skanky, the French one seems to show something starting tomorrow evening. The Swiss one is poor in comparison. I noted that the GFS charts changed around 10pm last night so who knows what they will make up in the next 2 hours. 
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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For Les Arcs the 4 day forecast from meteo France is generally pretty accurate. The temps are at 2040 metres. It suggests we won't be getting more than a sprinkling on Thursday morning, down to 1300m.
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
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For resorts that are high (1600+) the lower temps and snowmaking will provide snow to ski on but how do the lower resorts cope with such a poor snowfall in recent weeks? Are the higher resorts the only ones worth considering?
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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PG, Quick question for your local knowledge if I may. As we can see from your (excellent) webcam, the Cachette slope has snow making facilities but I was wondering what other slopes have the same - not been able to find artifical snow coverage info on-line.
I have three complete beginners coming with us to Arc 1950 and my biggest concern is that they will be able to ski at all with such little snow and mild temps. I guess the beginners will be on the nursery slope next to Arc 1950 to start with and moving to the St Jacques at 2000 - do you know if they have snow making facilities or if they are in a really poor condition I guess the lessons may shift down to the slopes with artificial snow at 1800?
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either that or they'll provide roller skates for the skis
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Update: snow forecast from http://www.meteonews.ch/, click on the Apline Weather link on the right hand side. At last some more local agreement of the 'dusting'. Also shows for Passes. Where there is hope etc!!
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sorry but the only proof i will now accept is a real snowflake sellotaped to this thread 
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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Bungle,
Arc 1600:
Cachette
Combettes
Pierres Blanches
Mont Blanc (bottom)
Belvédère (from the top of the Cachette to the Arpette restaurant)
Arc 1800:
Grands Mélèzes (middle section)
Chantel (top and bottom)
Charvet (bottom)
Vagère (bottom)
Belvédère (between Arpette restaurant and Haut Chantel)
Grand Renard
Carreley (from the Chantel chair)
Villards (top and bottom)
Vallandry
Les Aigles
Morey (end section)
Flocon
Myrtilles (end section)
Plan Peisey
Ours
Plan Peisey approach
Grive (end section)
But... I don't know about 2000 / 1950 - though there will be sufficient beginner zones to practice on in reasonable condition.
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micksup, The Swiss one is better in German, but could be better, you're right. GFS runs at 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z so updates fairly frequently.
Well the models are starting to agree on the development of the high pressure system. All have it spreading over central Europe over the weekend, though the exact position and shape vary a bit. It looks like we'll get a reasonably sized blocking high. Even GFS (which doesn't like blocking highs) is starting to come into line. The next couple of low pressure systems (and their fronts) look to stall out in the north Atlantic (though Scotland will still be affected), and only JMA still insists on precipitation middle next week (the FAX charts are still a day or two short for comparison). If the hp moves NE, or SW enough, we may get some fronts slip down through Europe, but otherwise it could be a cold/cool, dry week.
To see how much confidence there is within a GFS run for the near future, look at http://129.13.102.67/topkarten/tkavnmgeur.htm (Genf is Geneva) and select the Ensemble diagram from the drop down. The more runs that are grouped closely around the Hauptlauf (operational run) and closer it is to the Ensemble mddle, the more confidence there is (the Hauptlauf is the run that produces the charts, the others are separate runs with slightly altered inputs). Here you can see it all starts to go a bit haywire over the weekend. The European models are looking more in agreement with each other.
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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Groan
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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skanky, point me to somewhere I can learn to read these weird and wonderful graphs.
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skanky, what is the likely falls this evening and tonight. Could this be it for another week?
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You know it makes sense.
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micksup, unless the white stuff can fall out of a completely blue sky, I wouldn't be too optimistic about tonight's snowfall I'll be updating the webcam in 15 mins or so, you'll see what I mean...
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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jungle_ranger, if it's the Ensemble graph, the top line is temperature and the bottom is precipitation. Each line is a separate run of the model, with slightly altered inputs (to reflect the chaotic nature of the weather). The hauptlauf is the operational run (with what is supposed to be the actual inputs) and it is compared with the others (the others are to cope with inaccuracies etc. in inputs). If you google for "Ensemble forecasts" and maybe GFS you may find a decent explanatory site. If so, let me know as I don't have any (a bit busy at the moment, too).
micksup, not much tonight (apparently, I don't have the ability to work out amounts for myself). I'm waiting for the FAX charts for next week now.
PG, clouds do move though.
Hopefully, this lot won't fade away too much as it gets SE, but it should fade.
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Poster: A snowHead
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So near, yet so far. That darker stuff is a bit heavier. 
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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skanky, a little fluffy white one is just drifting over. Was that the one you meant?
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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PG, must be stalling against the hp. I'll try and find a more up to date picture.
BTW did you get that PM I sent?
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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PG, cheers for the detail on slopes with snow machines. Give us a shout if you are going to be meeting next week. My crew of grockles will love me if I can give them the low-down on the best pistes to ski in these conditions
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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PG, sorry to be a pain, sure you've probably posted this a thousand times but could you send me the link to your webcame please mate? ta
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skanky, thanks. is that a giant mogul field I see before me or just a trick of the light?
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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zippy, My kind of piste, horrid bumps for tthe kids and the wife, and I meet them at the bottom after a gentle run down the smooth bits
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zippy, looks smooth on the left (but not all the way left), as Frosty the Snowman says.
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FAQ
