 Poster: A snowHead
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Oh please please let this be true!! I have everything crossed!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Yep next year Xmas bookings will be down and Sod's law dictates they will get loads of Xmas snow! Winter 2010/2011 was very snowy and cold in the UK but how many of those have we had in the last 10...20... Even 50 years. I remain optimistic, the weather is unpredictable and just when you think you see a pattern... The complete opposite occurs!
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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18z GFS brings snow into the Alps on 30 December, as it progresses into FI it brings heavy snow and stormy weather into the Alps at altitude, though rain lower down.
At this point the detail is very uncertain, but there is a continuing indication that there may be some form of pattern shift coming around the turn of the year.
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| Jones82 wrote: |
| Yep next year Xmas bookings will be down |
I don't think this will be completely true. People have seen that the higher resorts are offering good skiing and also resorts where large amounts have been invested in snow making. I think you will see bookings in those resorts going up for early and late skiing.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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00z GFS goes snowy and cold from 01 Jan with a switch allowing below average temperatures and above average snowfall for the first week of January. Will ECM pick this up too now that it is in range?
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You'll need to Register first of course.
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@nozawaonsen, you are making me so happy and excited! holding thumbs 
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The problem with higher resorts during poor snow periods is that they get rammed and conditions in these higher resorts can be best described as challenging if you factor in the crowds. Last Saturday just in the first hour on slopes I saw three people being taken on sledges by pisteurs. Now, that holiday-makers arrived accidents will only increase. I doubt there will be a noticeable increase in bookings for higher resorts, there is no need to create demand and push prices up, since even if you book a lower resort you will be bussed to whichever nearest to you resort has snow. Yes, this transfer may take time but who seriously wants to ski bell to bell in these conditions? After three hours it's time for a celebration drink if you haven't been skied into.
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Hmm. ECM not following the same path. Caution required.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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I am not booking in January again in advance, cannot handle the stress.
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@nozawaonsen, I think a bit of wee just came out 
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@nozawaonsen, you seem to give with one hand (5:20am) and swiftly take away with the other (8:17am)... with Grand Massif trip starting on 2nd Jan, it's currently more nerve-wracking than supporting Newcastle United!
(jk of course - invaluable getting updates and expert views from you - keep up good work! ) 
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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Here in Saalbach 59 out of 70 lifts are running, and there is enough skiing for the number of people on the pistes. The general sentiment has been one of relief, after all the media reports about lack of snow. Our current guests have been planning excursions over to Leogang and Hinterglemm, and a guy I was talking to yesterday had just done the circuit of the entire valley, including Leogang. Another told me he'd been averaging 50km a day since he arrived about 10 days ago. I managed to get up the Kohlmais mountain yesterday and did some enjoyable skiing in the late afternoon, before waiting for the piste bashers to come up at 5.30pm and then skiing down, all the way to the bottom, with fresh tracks on the freshly groomed 'carpet'. So it's much, much better than this time last year, but not as good as the previous 8 pre-Christmas weeks (which I can vouch for as this is our 10th consecutive Christmas here).
I agree that, if it doesn't snow, the picture could well deteriorate markedly when the New Year crowds arrive - so much so that I will seriously consider whether it's worth skiing,
As for next year, I wouldn't envisage any impact on bookings for Christmas and New Year - as I said people seem to be having a good time currently, and NY week is always pretty well rammed to capacity. However I would expect pre-Christmas bookings to suffer, unless there are some supreme optimists out there, or of course we get good early snow say in late November or early December.
It's been interesting to see the wonders that can be achieved with snow-making.
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You know it makes sense.
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I read that and it seems to be based on historical stats rather than any concrete sign of a change. The most important word in the sentence "Such situations usually no longer hold than 45-60 days" is the word "usually". However I hope he is right!!
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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As someone said last week this season seems a lot like 2006/07. IIRC from about the third week of January the snow came and kept falling well into spring. But as he says "such situations usually no longer hold (more) than 45-60 days" and if thats a thread to cling to and I'll be happy to do it!
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Poster: A snowHead
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Interesting post @Dr John. Ah I guess its all about probability. I guess its not too dissimilar to a summer heat wave in the UK (but longer  ), eventually the patterns shift and go back to normality but its just a question of when. The good news is some of the weather forecasts seem to be also suggesting a change and possible snow at the very end of the month/beginning of January. Lets hope these long range forecasts are correct this time as it seems a lot of us are skiing in January!
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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The latest AO discussion from the Cohen team suggests an increased chance of SSW (sudden stratospheric warming) in early-mid January. This should put the brakes on the strong westerly circulation we have seen around the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes over the last few weeks that has caused the mild conditions over Europe and NE North America. Unfortunately they seem to think Europe will probably be the last mid-latitude region to see a transition to cooler conditions.
http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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@stef88, that's not probability...
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@FreeBeer, yes interesting read. Though SSWs and their impacts can be tricky to call with confidence.
Some similar points made in the latest Met Office Contingency planners update.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/f/A3_plots-temp-JFM_v1.pdf
"El Niño moderately increases the probability of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in early winter. At this time of year, the positive phase of the NAO is associated with milder- and wetter-than-average conditions, whilst the negative phase is associated with colder- and drier-than-average conditions. In late winter El Niño increases the probability of sudden stratospheric warming events occurring. These events disrupt the stratospheric polar vortex and, more often than not, bring cold weather to the UK...
...At the start of the 3-month period, milder-than-average conditions are more likely than colder-than-average. However later in the period, particularly from February onwards several seasonal forecasting systems, including the Met Office system, are in good agreement in suggesting a shift towards more blocked weather patterns; these patterns increase the chance of cold northerly or easterly winds affecting the UK."
And the potential for a more blocked set up from February has bee cropping up in CFS charts for a while.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/htmls/glbz200e3Mon.html
Slightly nearer term 06z GFS also breaks the pattern early in the New Year with snow arriving in the Alps 02/03 on this variant.
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@nozawaonsen, keep up the excellent work. We all appreciate it
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@Dr John,
Stay stoked
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@nozawaonsen, I'm checking every 6 hrs now!- great to see your updates.
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Jackson Hole, Wyoming, looks set to get another 50-100cm freshies this week...
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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| alj wrote: |
| @nozawaonsen, I'm checking every 6 hrs now!- great to see your updates. |
everyone knows that this thread becomes worse than a crack habit about this time every year...
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snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
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@ansta1, well I am a bloke, gotta live upto the reputation .....
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And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
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I seriously suffer from OSD (Obsessive Snow Disorder).
I have several Italian websites open all day.3 different resort webcams in the area.
Now I have discovered this place.
I need help.
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You know it makes sense.
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WTF????????
That must be an error. Mustn't it?
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Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
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@Gaza, yes.
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Poster: A snowHead
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
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Wetter has had problems for a while now displaying GFS FI (though that is a more extreme example).
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Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
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Bring it on!!
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You need to Login to know who's really who.
You need to Login to know who's really who.
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@blahblahblah, see above. 
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@Gaza, I know but it would be nice if it was real.
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You'll need to Register first of course.
You'll need to Register first of course.
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| blahblahblah wrote: |
| @Gaza, I know but it would be nice if it was real. |
As if by magic... 15 feet of snow falls... Poor old @Gaza would have to eat his hat!!
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@letsgetpiste, if it did happen I'd happily eat my hat.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
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so much for snow canons
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@davidof, Where is this?
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FAQ
