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Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Quote:

I just don't care anymore. I've had enough


For some of us newer members who are not part of the 'old school' this thread is the best on the forum, I look forward to the views of Carled, Brian and Pam who understand far more about meteorology than I do. They also have the ability to translate this data into an understandable form forthe rest of us.

I have enjoyed my introduction and basic education in the art of wiggly reading ... and the forecast from Carled for my own Holiday in January was spot on in terms of temps, rain and new snow.

Please use the other threads to bitch and moan - leave this one to our 'experts' especially if you have not got the wit to follow the humour and sarcasm in the thread.

nuff sed rolling eyes
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
parallel lines, good point well said ! Dont worry about the old school by the way ! snowHead
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
any chance of an educated forecast in this thread?

Just one ... occasionally? I know it's a bit unreasonable, but .... Madeye-Smiley
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gortonator, Troublemaker! Laughing
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Smokin Joe wrote:
parallel lines, good point well said ! Dont worry about the old school by the way ! snowHead


... Out of interest ... am I "Old Skool" Confused
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You'll need to Register first of course.
Agenterre, too old for skool more like NehNeh
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Agenterre, we are all old school ! Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
rayscoops wrote:
Agenterre, too old for skool more like NehNeh


as soon as I pressed 'Send' ... I realised what I had done rolling eyes Grateful you were gentlemanly in your response snowHead
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
Smokin Joe, Another Gentleman !! I forecast cooling temps tonight and white stuff tomorrow .. there ! wink
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Ski the Net with snowHeads
This is one of the few threads that contains useful information rather than hyperbole and tittle tattle. Can the trolls go somewhere else to cause trouble and those of us who really appreciate the effort that is put in by the wise ones be allowed to benefit from their knowledge and ask the occasional intelligent question?
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Steve Sparks, mid 'weather outlook' tittle tattle is allowed in between forecasts, it keeps the thread at the top of the page snowHead
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Steve Sparks, Name your 'trolls' please Confused
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Agenterre, to do that would be a bit self defeating wouldn't it? Can't we just get back to the weather?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Steve Sparks, but there is no one left here now to talk too about weather?
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Steve Sparks, dunno, can you think of an intelligent question to ask ? NehNeh

(nice troll BTW) Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
rayscoops, Laughing that's cause they're all on the webcams watching it snow rather than speculating about whether it will!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Steve Sparks, Yes , you're right .... but fyi what has been posted above ( by me) is accurate ... the 2 prime posters here are 'bloody good' .. and they don't take themselves seriously !

A few others ( Pam & I to name 2... but I exclude noone, there are others like RQ) have been 'trained' in ST forecasting .... all of us know ( I speak for myself) that weather forecasting is difficult/improbable. Both Carled and Brian have got 'hold' of Alpine forecasting ( beyond me! ) . We're not talking about the various 'models' but interpreting them for 'You & I ' !

Others interjections only add to the 'value' of the thread imho .. 'Education with a Smile' ??? snowHead wink

BTW -- here in Gstaad it looks like the Cold front has moved North ... I'll check the charts later !
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
I was going to send Carled and Brian, in particular as they seem to have a huge amount of valuable input to this thread and across the forum, a PM to say keep up the good work because it, I am sure, is very informative to a lot of other people as well as me. I'd never really got a clue about any of the charts, what they mean, where to find them and how they work. It is informative. Makes me think that the vast amount of my working day that I spend on here is educational and not just shirking my day job Very Happy Really enjoy all the banter and the speculation about snow as it's all part of the season, the ups and downs. Shame to see this go so hopefully it won't come to an early demise part way through the season! Keep up the good work guys!!!

snowHead snowHead
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Steve Sparks wrote:
Agenterre, to do that would be a bit self defeating wouldn't it? Can't we just get back to the weather?


how many times can you ask " is it going to snow?" or " how much snow is going to fall?" or " will we get 32.5 cms of the white stuff on March 17th" before Carled and Brian get Fc*ked off at having to repeat themselves every week.... I've now read the whole 38 pages of this thread and theres an element of repetition wink wink

I've made my mistakes in asking the dumb questions, learnt from it and enjoy the meaningless banter that goes on here..... betwn actually reading the entertaining debates on next weeks forecast. I for one, will be bringing back a stick of rock for Carled off my hols.

snowHead
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Clearly as I said a little while back its not a great season as people are bickering about when its going to snow. Very sad indeed....plus a variety of people (so called in the know) need to chill out and get off their high horse. Like days becomes night, it WILL snow again and indeed did today !
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Alex A, Grrrr ,,, grrrr...chomp...chomp ..... boy am I looking forward to a 'Great' season having been 'unable' to ski for perhaps 4 days this year ( mainly due to winds at 1000m+) ( including 2 of those when it was raining) ...since November rolling eyes snowHead
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
ok , not had many posts , but taken on the advice , and read http://snowheads.com/ski-forum/viewtopic.php?t=14852 , so here goes , I have produced a model twice a day since Friday last week , not using the graph with lots of different plots but the http://www.arl.noaa.gov/ready/cmet.html website. There are a number of aspects that I believe are (shoot me down if flames if wrong) going to influence whether I get fresh snow when I am on holiday next week. Temp to low lower levels (below 0 degrees) , "dew point temp" (this I think is crucial to turn ANY watery precipitation into SNOW) and any precipitation. OK I have tracked this based on Val D'isere (lat 45.49 long 6.92) and guess what when it says there will precipitation it has fallen , and as snow, but before everyone jumps in , based upon what was being predicted 10 days ago , any possible snow was quickly evaporating by the next model run before it hit the Alps. The model since Saturday has being predicting snow (consistent models) to lower levels and it has delivered to many resorts. More is predicted from Sunday through to Tuesday next week , if this keeps up then anyone skiing next week depending upon area , wind direction , speed could be in for some fun in powder but I am not predicting how many CM's(fatal mistake). But just think youself lucky if you get more than 6 inches (13.2 cm) "as the actor said to the bishop."
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Looking at the charts for the upcoming couple of weeks, what's looking promising is the sheer number of opportunities for snow. Usually you have one or two areas where the frontal systems will cause precipitation and you have to hope that this ends up being where you want it. The difference with the current set-up is that there are waves of fronts sweeping through from the west and these are just throwing up precipitation options all over the place. It really is an exciting prospect as I think pretty much everywhere will get some quite heavy snow both this week and next week.

There will be one or two instances where a strong cold front undercuts some seriously wet and warm Mediterranean air and if we're lucky it'll be far enough north to stall over some lucky mountains that will get a serious dumping - one of the epic ones with a metre of snow over a couple of days. There are a few chances of this in the offing in the models, but at the moment the weather system is too far south and east to be of help to the Alpine region (instead giving Croatia and Albania a bit of a wellying).

Slightly warmer than you'd want at times... but that is the double-edged sword of the warm fronts needed to bring in the decent precipitation. Doesn't seem to be any periods of extended warmth around at present, but a slight danger of a few days of warmth developing towards the weekend after this one (so that'll be around the end of the MSB and right when I'll be arriving to get rained on... rolling eyes
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carled, thanks. Looking good. We'll all be grumbling about poor vis soon.

I make no claims to knowing anything about alpine weather by the way; rather alarmed to see my name bracketed with yours and Brian's. Shocked

I know about sailing weather in England, a bit. But that's it.

Quote:

its not a great season

sorry, have to disagree Alex A, until the last 10 days or so it's a fine season. And even for the last 10 days pistes above 1500m have been fine in most places from which Snowheads have reported. I think I said before that I doubted whether many seasons had featured such a high proportion of "Excellent" or "good" skiing days, straight through from before Christmas. If Carled is right about the next week or so we'll be set up for a good second half to the season, too. Which seasons do you think have been better? This is my sixth on the trot, and the best so far, so far. snowHead
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pam w, My fourth and the best so far. Had a cracking day today.
carled, your expertise appreciated.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
maggi wrote:
Never had so much fresh snow in one season! Have I just been lucky?
Wengen next week? - looking good? Cool


carled wrote:
If this run comes off then we're going to lose half the MSB lot under several feet of snow...

WOOHOO!

Edit: I've just edited this post. By mistake. I meant to make a new post today (Wed 5th) but I've screwed up and deleted most of the original post and added a quote from carled which he hadn't made when I originally posted and so I look like Mystic Meg. If you follow me......

I think the excitement of snow has got to me big time Embarassed .


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Wed 5-03-08 16:19; edited 2 times in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
maggi, four trips so far!! You're damn right you're lucky wink
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
maggi, I guess some people are just temperamentally inclined to complain. I feel very cheered up by looking at the NIVOSE snow measure for Les Saisies - showing heavy snow, over 20 cms by 15h this afternoon, after a rather slow start.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/france/nivose/pics/SAISIS.html
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
ickabodblue, five actually Embarassed .
I didn't mention the PSB as it was
like this rolling eyes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
maggi, Laughing Laughing Laughing
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Agenterre wrote:
Alex A, Grrrr ,,, grrrr...chomp...chomp ..... boy am I looking forward to a 'Great' season having been 'unable' to ski for perhaps 4 days this year ( mainly due to winds at 1000m+) ( including 2 of those when it was raining) ...since November rolling eyes snowHead


Thought that might get the cat amongst the pigeons !

I cant be bothered to reply to everyone, but I wasn't complaining! I'm just stating facts. There has not been "that" much snow this season. Thats a fact. Does anyone here actually know the average precipitation for the Tarentaise for example? Well its below average by some margin. There has only been 9 feet of so. Thats not that great for week one of March. No base above 140 or 150cm etc... http://www.meteofrance.com/FR/montagne/hneige.jsp?LIEUID=HTETARENT

With regards being able to ski @ 1000m. Thats considered normal not exceptional. Last year and perhaps 87/88 aside.

There have been 2 periods of more than 2 weeks with no snow and recently a 3 week period. In the 5 seasons i've worked I never had that. Maybe I was lucky.

The other factor is the wind. The coverage is terrible off piste in a lot of places with the wind stripped away. I've never seen Tignes the way it is this season. Yeah there are plenty of good stashes and I had a great week without any new snow.

My original post was meant to make two points.

Carled - stop thinking you are the bees knees and give some people a break. There are a load of excited "punters" wanting it to snow. Nothing wrong with that.

and secondly to point out that in a great season you dont need to argue about when its going to snow as it snows all the time.... like here http://www.jacksonhole.com/weather.snow.report.asp 39 feet and counting !

Enjoy...Alex
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
maggi wrote:
Alex A wrote:
Clearly as I said a little while back its not a great season

What!!!!
I've been away:
Beginning of December - Tignes - dumped
Mid January - Saas Fee - dumped
1st week February - 3 Valleys - dumped
Never had so much fresh snow in one season! Have I just been lucky?
Wengen next week? - looking good? Cool


Either you booked very last minute or you have a great gift ! Very Happy

On piste conditions have remained very good this season thats for sure. So if you get new snow you will have had a great holiday for sure.

I think i'm talking more overall and on a statistic basis. Also if working a season you would not be saying how many powder days you have had as there haven't been as many as people think.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Alex A wrote:

Carled - stop thinking you are the bees knees and give some people a break. There are a load of excited "punters" wanting it to snow. Nothing wrong with that.

Enjoy...Alex


You were going along quite nicely until then... now you just look like a muppet. I can only think that you have sorely misunderstood the position if, at any point, you think I have portrayed myself as the joints of any insects going... I have frequently pointed out that I have a zero tolerance level for daft questions, that hardly means I'm trying to come across as the best thing since sliced bread now, does it? It just means I'm moron-intolerant... with some people it's lactose, with others it's gluten... with me, it's people that can't be bothered to spend 5 minutes having a quick scan through a few posts to see how the land lies before diving in with both metaphorical feet...

I think it says more about you than it does me that you think that you have summed up the situation regarding me and my "persona" on this forum. Hey... I want it to snow, I'm an excited punter, but that doesn't mean that I should put up with some of the bilge that gets posted on here about the weather or snow-predicting sites. I'm not infallible, neither have I ever claimed to be - all I do as an enthusiastic amateur is interpret the weather charts as I see them and it gives me an outlet to vent my spleen on occasion. It appears that some people enjoy my writing style and others find it intensely irritating - such as yourself. To be honest, that's pretty much the reaction I get from people in real life.

Feel free to hold your opinion, but I'm equally allowed to venture an alternative one and that is that you've got me entirely wrong, I'm afraid... not that it greatly matters. It won't stop me calling a berk a berk and enjoy doing so...

love and kisses,
Carled
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pam w wrote:
carled, thanks. Looking good. We'll all be grumbling about poor vis soon.
Which seasons do you think have been better? This is my sixth on the trot, and the best so far, so far. snowHead


92/93, 94/95, 95/96, 98/99, 00/01

Even last year had 200cm more snow high up than now. The Lac Blanc depth in Chamonix was 260cm this time last year. Its 55cm now. And that was apparently a rubbish season. I dont think so. Last year above 1800 metres from end Jan onwards was actually pretty good I reckon. I've not seen such good coverage on the glaciers this year. Low down last year was terrible I grant that, but at altitude it was a myth that it was rubbish.

This year had a great start, but people even then were forgetting other years (or they are too young to remember). October 92 had more snow than the whole of this season added together so far.

There is still time left for us to have bucket loads of snow and that will probable happen. I just think that at this point its average and not anything more than that.

Alex
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Alex A, don't forget that in at least one of those years you mentioned, too much snow was a major problem and led to multiple fatalities. Doesn't necessarily make it a good season then Sad
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carled wrote:
Alex A wrote:

Carled - stop thinking you are the bees knees and give some people a break. There are a load of excited "punters" wanting it to snow. Nothing wrong with that.

Enjoy...Alex


You were going along quite nicely until then... now you just look like a muppet. I can only think that you have sorely misunderstood the position if, at any point, you think I have portrayed myself as the joints of any insects going... I have frequently pointed out that I have a zero tolerance level for daft questions, that hardly means I'm trying to come across as the best thing since sliced bread now, does it? It just means I'm moron-intolerant... with some people it's lactose, with others it's gluten... with me, it's people that can't be bothered to spend 5 minutes having a quick scan through a few posts to see how the land lies before diving in with both metaphorical feet...

I think it says more about you than it does me that you think that you have summed up the situation regarding me and my "persona" on this forum. Hey... I want it to snow, I'm an excited punter, but that doesn't mean that I should put up with some of the bilge that gets posted on here about the weather or snow-predicting sites. I'm not infallible, neither have I ever claimed to be - all I do as an enthusiastic amateur is interpret the weather charts as I see them and it gives me an outlet to vent my spleen on occasion. It appears that some people enjoy my writing style and others find it intensely irritating - such as yourself. To be honest, that's pretty much the reaction I get from people in real life.

Feel free to hold your opinion, but I'm equally allowed to venture an alternative one and that is that you've got me entirely wrong, I'm afraid... not that it greatly matters. It won't stop me calling a berk a berk and enjoy doing so...

love and kisses,
Carled


I think I can sum up my feelings torwards that post with this statement.

You dont have the right to "own" this thread because of your ability to crunch a few numbers into a few websites. Other people have a right to post questions as silly as they like (in your opinion). If you dont like the questions then dont post on the thread and ignore them. I have not posted for a while but could not watch you being rude to people any further.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Woah! Toys all over the playroom. Let's get back to the weather - what's the snow going to be like in Engelberg at 2pm this Thursday wink
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Elizabeth B wrote:
Alex A, don't forget that in at least one of those years you mentioned, too much snow was a major problem and led to multiple fatalities. Doesn't necessarily make it a good season then Sad


True 98/99 was epic in many ways, but tragic in others. Feb was the most abusive i've ever seen guests as they couldn't ski when the resort was shut. Outside of those 3 weeks it was just incredible and the longest gap with no snow was 9 days. I have a diary from that year and we had 45 powder days ( excluding the days the resort was shut - about 10 days) and over 1m base in Aime and skiing to the valley floor for months. Resorts closed with 400cm of snow. Crazy stuff....
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Alex A wrote:

I think I can sum up my feelings torwards that post with this statement.

You dont have the right to "own" this thread because of your ability to crunch a few numbers into a few websites. Other people have a right to post questions as silly as they like (in your opinion). If you dont like the questions then dont post on the thread and ignore them. I have not posted for a while but could not watch you being rude to people any further.


Oh blimey, it's Alex A the superhero... righter of wrongs, crusher of oppressors, doer of good. Aw, you're such a nice chap to stand up for all these poor people I'm picking on. I'm sure they'll be a long any minute now to thank you for your concern and for sticking up for them against big, bad ol' carled. What a simply horrid thing I am, and no mistake.

You remind me of Mary Whitehouse. She thought she knew what was best for people too.

Me? Yeah, of course I "own" the thread... nice one. Good grief what a bell-end. Did you fail "Internet arguing 101" and now feel the need to take out your inadequacies against those you feel have slighted you or that which you stand for? Just think about it for a moment Mary, if others have the right to post stupid questions, I then have the equal right to post stupid answers, so your argument, such as it is, is self-defeating...

I will bow to the will of the masses - do a poll, ask admin, canvass opinions, whatever you like. If people want me to shut up and sod off then I'm gone... However, it appears that there are at least a few out there (judging by recent posts) that are happy for me to continue posting. What a dilemma! What will super-Alex do, folks? Tune in next time for another exciting episode of, "adventures in bad logic."

Christ... it's like being savaged by a pair of pink fluffy slippers... No, really, I'm blubbing here, blubbing I tell you...
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Well that made me smile. Very Happy

Quite funny how you have taken this so personally. I couldn't give a toss what anyone thinks. Weather nerds are like plane spotters...they cant fly but are experts.

Alex
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