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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hyst wrote:
Finally the snow has come to Nozawa and the other resorts around! Madeye-Smiley


I'm going to be there on the 4th, it looks to be getting a lot warmer for a few days before Christmas with rain Confused
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
In Tignes, top of Toviers, at 1 pm. Slushy conditions. Going to find a terrace and say I had a good morning.

It feels like last week of the season, especially in terms of conditions of the pistes.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Very late springlike!!
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Skiing in the warmth.
Slush in the afternoons.
Snow line visibly rising up the valleys.
The lakes down to the bottom.
Above freezing overnight.
The sound of melt water in the main village stream.

Perfect day in Val Thorens in late April.
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
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@AthersT, I'm not sure its very uncertain. More like a few outlying runs going for precipitation raising possibility rather than probability of same. Maybe noza can further enlighten
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Yes, emwmarine and others: quite right.
We had lunch today at Dou du Praz (La Plagne, 2100m) with Mr and Mrs skichampcouk: blazing blue sky, only needed a shirt and sunglasses (and maybe trousers rolling eyes ).
The last time we were there was April, and it was warmer today . . .

Local forecast for tomorrow suggests 5-10cm snow above 2000m and rain below.
Maybe time to get the Deadwood box set out . . .
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Very warm at my apartment at 1550m, south facing, surrounded by grass. But the floor of the Doron valley is all white after these weeks of big temperature inversion plus few hours of sunlight down there.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
emwmarine wrote:
Perfect day in Val Thorens in late April.
I've skied VT in the last week of April lots of times (at the EoSB) and conditions in Les Arcs today were not really like that at all. The snow had definitely softened but certainly couldn't be called slushy, not even getting down towards 1800m on the final ski home. I thought piste conditions today were generally much better than last week, although with the forecast for continued unseasonable temperatures and increasing numbers of skiers during the holidays I'm not sure how long it will last like this.
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12z GFS smashes the high pressure over Europe as first one then another low pressure system crashes through at the turn of the year as high pressure retreats north allowing heavy snow to fall across the Alps and Pyrenees (although you'd want to watch the temperatures).

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=240&mode=0#


http://youtube.com/v/VbxgYlcNxE8

Will it happen like that? It's too far off obviously and the low pressure system GFS models seems a bit OTT, it alpmost certianly won't happen quite like that, but will be interesting to see if this is picked up in this evening's control or ECM.
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@nozawaonsen, what's the opposite of shooting the messenger? Happy
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You know the day destroys the night
Night divides the day
Tried to run
Tried to hide
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side, yeah
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, only a few days too late! I'm going on boxing day Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
You can forget about any snow for the week beginning on the 3rd. I've the worst Juju going!
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
I'm out on the 10th, so fingers crossed! Looks like things shouyld have improved by then.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Put the TV on this morning to see the local tv showing webcam at the top of the mountain as 7C at 8am this morning. By 3pm as I was stood in the same place as the webcam the sign said 15C. Amazing for 1800m at the end of December. However, conditions are actually great. It doesn't seem to be sugary or mounding up anywhere - unlike Easter. Judging by the garmin I think today may be my fastest first day skiing of a holiday ever, I'd like to think it was the investment in new skis, but I can't be too sure.

(Wagrain, Ski Amade where it is a lot colder in town than on the mountain).
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
martinm wrote:
I'm out on the 10th, so fingers crossed! Looks like things shouyld have improved by then.


Might have, not should.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Thought I'd share this nice weather prospects blog

http://www.icyblasts.com/superb-snow.aspx
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
langball wrote:
You know the day destroys the night
Night divides the day
Tried to run
Tried to hide
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side
Break on through to the other side, yeah


Seasons over
For the unknown skier
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nozawaonsen wrote:
martinm wrote:
I'm out on the 10th, so fingers crossed! Looks like things shouyld have improved by then.


Might have, not should.


I'll settle for should have not will have !
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Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
"Shoulda Woulda Coulda

Are the last words of a fool"
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@davidof, come on we need positivity on here, and that song ironically is from the album "waiting for the sun" ! If we get much more of that I'm gonna end up in the next whiskey bar wink
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
18z GFS op lands a sucker punch on the Alps on New Year's Eve and New Year's Day.

With the full force of the Atlantic behind it it would be very stormy and mild as the snow arrived cooler as it pushes through.

Then bam. With a one two lands another blow on the third.


http://youtube.com/v/Hj0jzepk0WA

As ever way too far out at this stage. But will be worth taking a seat to watch how it plays out tomorrow...
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
00z GFS again introduces a dramatic shift at the turn of the year with stormy weather hitting the Alps from 31/01 Jan, bringing heavy snow to the Alps though temperatures could be raised at times. Scottish mountains and the Pyrenees would also see stormy weather (the latter towards the end of the run). Worth keeping an eye on.
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I prefer optimistic weather forecasts, so I've been liking this one as for the last few days it has consistently been showing snow for the start of the New Year for where I'm going in Jan.

http://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/ski_forecast_14days.asp?resortID=48&Country=italy&Resort=champoluc
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@nozawaonsen, looks like the 00z is an outlier on the temp too - if it were to stay high that it would not be good for anywhere!


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Mon 21-12-15 8:56; edited 1 time in total
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@Ray Zorro, that's just a different way of showing the GFS operational run.

@AthersT, not sure what you mean? Doesn't look that much of an outlier to me in terms of temperature (in FI) and at times would be good.

Tignes



Arlberg



The key would be the shift in pattern if it comes off.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@nozawaonsen, I was being a bit vague, I was talking about where I'm going sorry -
26th to 29th

Those tignes temps look a bit of an outlier too in the short term.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
Where can I get these graphs for the SkiWelt region? A link would be greatly appreciated Happy... Thanks
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@Don87, there you go.

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=47.5&lon=12.2
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@nozawaonsen, Many thanks!
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Just looked at the 00z for the Dolomites, the precip for 5th Jan goes right up off the scale!! They want some snow, but not another Snowmageddon!! Shocked

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&lat=46&lon=12

At least there are more & more indications of a breakdown of this current blocking High. snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
luigi wrote:
but not another Snowmageddon!! Shocked


eerr yes we do, and early jan would be lovely - just in time for the 22nd when most of us get out there Happy
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
am off to Saalbach on 2 January all the way from South Africa, holding thumbs that this forecasted breakdown of the high pressure system comes just in time!

Thanks all for the constant updates
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@rrd3718, will also be in Saalbach for a week from 2 January (also from South Africa). Been watching this thread with great interest, its a long way from South Africa to Saalbach for there to be no snow!!

Please let the updates continue to show snow in the not-too-distant future!
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i refresh this thread every 5 mins hoping for a change! haha.

Never been to Saalbach (previously been to St Anton, Ischgl, Serfaus, Neustift etc) so am so keen to give it a go as I've only heard good things. I've organised the trip with mates this year so I feel almost personally responsible for good conditions.

Good luck!
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06z holds the pattern shift until 02 Jan, but the brings cold and snow for early January.

Mixed outcome in that it keeps a shift in place, but would increase confidence to see it drawing closer.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@nozawaonsen, like a dagger through the heart!! Sad


http://youtube.com/v/ohzhHKf2VIw
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@AthersT, not that bad!! Only delays snow by 24 hours or so.
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Isn't it common for a forecast breakdown in a prevalent system to get gradually pushed further and further back? I'm sure I remember this happening last year (and previously).


Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Mon 21-12-15 12:36; edited 1 time in total
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@nozawaonsen, not good when you go home on the 2nd!!
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