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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
PaulC1984 wrote:
AthersT wrote:
@PaulC1984, Turning cold maybe from 27th onwards


Please please please be true Happy



maybe it will.... or maybe it won't. snowHead
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
It's hot in the Alps right now. Killed 2 flys in the kitchen earlier.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
4 flies in the Rostwaldhutte at lunch time.... ( in fact, reliably informed it was 5)
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Had a live butterfly on my house this morning. Shocked
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langball wrote:
It's hot in the Alps right now. Killed 2 flys in the kitchen earlier.


If you don't like the heat get out of the kitchen! Very Happy
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8C at Chamrousse (1750 meters) now, at midnight.



You could be sitting outside on a terrace with nothing more than a jumper.

and just to compare, down in the valley at Vizille

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Why don't we just move Christmas and New Year to suit the weather pattern. Surely that must be easier than the other way around.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Little suggestion of anything in this morning's GFS and ECM output other than mild and dry for the Alps out until at least 28 December.

Should actually be quite pleasant and sunny mind you.
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Whoa, 0C in the valley but already up to 9C on the mountain. Scorchio.
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At last something positive! 11cm predicted in Les Arcs on Monday 21st!

http://www.meteoexploration.com/forecasts/Les-Arcs/

Would be wonderful if it runs true!
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Can't we get an other weatherman, who tells "Snow, snow, snow"?

Even in Nozawaonsen there is a lack of snow so far. Shocked

(no offense, but I need som white powder). wink


Last edited by snowHeads are a friendly bunch. on Sat 19-12-15 11:46; edited 1 time in total
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Its probably rather basic compared to the knowledge some of you have but this has been my go-to site and its always proved pretty accurate:
http://www.sat24.com/foreloop.aspx?type=1
Not that it brings any more encouraging news Crying or Very sad
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@SStreet, I wonder where that came from?

Anyhow, we had planned to ski 3 weeks, from 13 December until January 3rd. I've rebooked to Tignes, which is where I am now, but rebooking the New Years week was proving difficult, as had planned to meet my sister flying in from Milan. As luck would have it, airlines changed her flight time, and she was able to cancel the flights with a full refund, and the new plan is to go to her house in Norway... as she lives south, there is also no snow, but at least we are together and not spending loads of money to be together.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
@SStreet, . I've rebooked to Tignes, .


So will have 1000s of others.

The reports currently coming from the Sella Ronda areas are very positive. No off piste and brown scenery are the only negatives.

They don't spend 12m Euro making snow for a laugh. rolling eyes
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@HeidiAmsterdam,

Myrkdalen is the place to go 160 cm on mountain and 40 in the valley!

http://www.myrkdalen.no/en/weather-and-webcam
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
@SStreet, Tignes forecast also has snow for Monday night Very Happy
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Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
@Mollerski,

I wasn't booked in the Sella Ronda area, I was booked in Milky Way, which doesn't have the snow making facilities the Sella Ronda has. Otherwise I would have just gone there.

Tignes is fine. A lot of lifts open, but we miss the whole freeride experience as the coverage just can't support it. My new game is to find hot chocolates for the kids at 3 EUR or less. I have a small list now Shocked
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@HeidiAmsterdam, the size of an egg cup for 3E I imagine Happy
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@PaulC1984, yes, something like that. In a way, a bit painful to be looking at all the things one could ski, were there another 2 meters of snow.... but still. Lovely temperatures, fresh air, being together. The lodging deal was cheaper than chips, it could be worse.

It's just been a holiday of rebooking, week by week.

Now off to book Norway, and the daunting 18 hour drive + ferry ride and more driving. Thank goodness we have a 3 week holiday!
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@HeidiAmsterdam, try marmottes restaurant, hot chocolate 2 euros.
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@stewart woodward, discovered that on day 1! Also the Sherpa in the Tignes Maison area 1 EUR, and the pizza-crepe place at the skiset is 3 EUR.

Like I could ride a travel guide to hot chocolate in Tignes.... Toofy Grin
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
There is strong consistency in the model output reaching out to 27 December with mild and dry conditions predominating.

There could be some weak snowfall above 1800m in the northern Alps on Monday afternoon/evening, but it does not look like amounting to much.

Beyond next weekend there is more uncertainty, but although there are some suggestions, there is still yet to be much to indicate a substantial pattern shift is in the offing.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
nozawaonsen wrote:
There is strong consistency in the model output reaching out to 27 December with mild and dry conditions predominating.

There could be some weak snowfall above 1800m in the northern Alps on Monday afternoon/evening, but it does not look like amounting to much.

Beyond next weekend there is more uncertainty, but although there are some suggestions, there is still yet to be much to indicate a substantial pattern shift is in the offing.


Its got to snow at some point right?! have we ever had a season where theres been no snow......
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PaulC1984 wrote:
nozawaonsen wrote:
There is strong consistency in the model output reaching out to 27 December with mild and dry conditions predominating.

There could be some weak snowfall above 1800m in the northern Alps on Monday afternoon/evening, but it does not look like amounting to much.

Beyond next weekend there is more uncertainty, but although there are some suggestions, there is still yet to be much to indicate a substantial pattern shift is in the offing.


Its got to snow at some point right?! have we ever had a season where theres been no snow......


1974 or 75??
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So I googled no snow 1974 and this came up Shocked Shocked Shocked Toofy Grin


http://youtube.com/v/HBFXKZkM9Yk
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
1994


http://youtube.com/v/16UJ4ADpUVU
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@davidof, Which was an El Nino year Sad
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
PaulC1984 wrote:
So I googled no snow 1974 and this came up Shocked Shocked Shocked Toofy Grin


http://youtube.com/v/HBFXKZkM9Yk


I do sometimes wonder what settings you have in your search engine Very Happy

It will snow, we're just currently in one of those 4 or 5 or 6 week periods when it doesn't snow Shocked 2015 has been a strange year for weather so come January the slate will be wiped clean as a new year begins and the weather can gain some normality! That's what I've convinced myself with anyway Very Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Matrski wrote:
PaulC1984 wrote:
So I googled no snow 1974 and this came up Shocked Shocked Shocked Toofy Grin


http://youtube.com/v/HBFXKZkM9Yk


I do sometimes wonder what settings you have in your search engine Very Happy

It will snow, we're just currently in one of those 4 or 5 or 6 week periods when it doesn't snow Shocked 2015 has been a strange year for weather so come January the slate will be wiped clean as a new year begins and the weather can gain some normality! That's what I've convinced myself with anyway Very Happy


Ive no idea what you mean Happy

I did sit on santas lap today though and he reasured me there was a change coming - I assume he was on about the weather Shocked Shocked Shocked Toofy Grin
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
For what it's worth CFS currently suggests a shift towards January being above average in terms of precipitation for the northern Alps and below average for the southern Alps. It also suggests the Alps will be milder than average.



I'd take that with some caution although I would note that that pattern has been coming up consistently for several months now.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
davidof wrote:
1994


http://youtube.com/v/16UJ4ADpUVU


The year the tdf cycled up to the top of Val Thorens!!
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
martinm wrote:
Had a live butterfly on my house this morning. Shocked



Ladybird. Tree blossom. Mother Nature thinks it's Mar / Apr.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
PaulC1984 wrote:


I did sit on santas lap today though and he reasured me there was a change coming - I assume he was on about the weather Shocked Shocked Shocked Toofy Grin


Try googling this one: Santa Claus by Kevin 'Bloody' Wilson. Toofy Grin Toofy Grin (not for the faint hearted).
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Finally the snow has come to Nozawa and the other resorts around! Madeye-Smiley
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00z GFS FI does indicate a change in pattern in the distance with both the operational and control runs bringing snowfall to the Alps and Pyrenees (more so on the northern side of both ranges) although not until 31 December. Obviously that is too far out to have much credibility, but there is support from the control as well as operational so something to keep an eye on during the next couple of days.
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nozawaonsen wrote:
not until 31 December. Obviously that is too far out to have much credibility

I've seen something around this date too, like you say, you can't be sure, and it does keep changing.
Is the high pressure finally going to weaken around 31st?
Around the 3rd the low could extend to the Alps, however it looks like it might get pushed away fairly quickly.
Fingers crossed.

My boss was mountain biking on dry dusty trails at Pila yesterday!
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
First morning's skiing in Zermatt - sunny, almost everything open, Cervinia's open, no queues - snow's not bad either. ..
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
06z has another go at shifting the pattern at the end of the year. Less comviction this time round though.

@caughtanedge, yep. Sun gonna shine a lot over the next week. And if you are out and about in the mountains there is fun to be had. So turn it up...


http://youtube.com/v/iPUmE-tne5U
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It seems to be about as stuck a pattern as any I can recall. I think fair to say that hopes of it "unsticking" still quite weak? Interesting how these patterns can develop and remain so for so long. It seems to have quite a lot of energy to it judging by the battering British Isles, Norway etc are getting. Still I suppose even if jet stream briefly shifts south once or twice during next few weeks there is potential for one or two heavy storms to save the season, much like snow at end of November set things up least for the Northern Alps during December
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This mornings 00Z has alot of uncertainty in the ensembles post boxing day - from very cold to very warm - then eludes to precipitation from anywhere post 27th with some substantial amounts around new year. Could be very good (cold + snowy) or could just continue in the same vein. The fact everything is so uncertain only 6 days out is making the suspense worse!


Last edited by Ski the Net with snowHeads on Sun 20-12-15 14:14; edited 1 time in total
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