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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead

http://youtube.com/v/JeqqmSQNgJk
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Old friend/acquaintance got some in Lech today:



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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
But is that David Beckam on the left. Meanwhile we had another glorious day on piste in Tignes (above 2000m) just like the end of March.
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@toadman - I think you showed incredible constraint before you pulled the plug.

Where are you off to now?

***jealous***
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
@clarky999, Lorraine Huber and Stefan Häusl had some good shots from the Arlberg today though I suspect hiking was involved...
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Good snow report.

Morzine, France, looking grim. Baqueira Beret, Spain, and Aspen, US, looking good...

http://www.planetski.eu/news/7514



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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
HeidiAmsterdam wrote:
@toadman - I think you showed incredible constraint before you pulled the plug.

Where are you off to now?

***jealous***


@HeidiAmsterdam I am always looking at the bright side of snow forecasts. But after last Sunday's forecast for the Alps + the 7 day forecast for the US West Coast = Trip to Sun Valley. (First time skiing there.) Was able to find last minute accommodations, and surprisingly not too high prices for air fare from Seattle to Boise outbound, and then direct from Sun Valley back to Seattle. Leaving tomorrow, and so excited to hit the slopes with forecasted snow all but assured the entire week. Supposed to be excellent with 3 storms coming. One started already into Friday morning. Then another coming in on Sunday, and then at least one more for Tuesday/Wednesday. Could see anywhere from 30CM to a meter by Christmas. Smile

Then it's off to Mt. Bachelor in Bend for New Years which is also getting hit with lots and lots of snow. (That trip was already planned after Europe.) Just will be way easier without the jet lag!

I bought a Mountain Collective Pass for Sun Valley, ( http://mountaincollective.com/ ) which has got to have some of the most expensive lift passes I have ever seen $!!!! So I hope that deters crowds and I can chase powder. Very Happy

Then I will hope to hit Whistler sometime near end of January or maybe Alta and use that Mountain Collective Pass and put it to work! Cool
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@Toadman, I'm not entirely sure why one would regularly travel Eastwards across the pond given the generally very fine skiing you have in the Americas.

(Equally in the other direction). Once or twice for the ambiance and experience, but still...
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Looks like GFS is showing a signal for snow for Sat 26th in the Western Alps. snowHead Course, at that range it may be 30degrees Cool

Snowmaggedon 2? Probably not as the freezing level is a tadge high.



Last edited by You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net. on Thu 17-12-15 23:55; edited 1 time in total
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mcspreader wrote:
Looks like GFS is showing a signal for snow for Sat 26th in the Western Alps. snowHead Course, at that range it may be 30degrees Cool

Snowmaggedon 2?


id say as much chance of Michael Fish getting it right!
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
It is starting to look like snow at higher altitudes and rain at lower altitudes in the Alps between Xmas and New Year.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
This gives some idea of the level in confidence in forecasts as time goes on. OK to about 5 days then total fantasy by day 10.

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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@mcspreader, Jesus - That looks like the diversion route for the fourth bridge! Happy
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
under a new name wrote:
@Toadman, I'm not entirely sure why one would regularly travel Eastwards across the pond given the generally very fine skiing you have in the Americas.

(Equally in the other direction). Once or twice for the ambiance and experience, but still...


Change of scenery. Change of diet. Go soak up the ambiance and wine/beers, food and so forth of the Alps. We always end or start a ski trip to Europe in some place like London, Paris, Munich, etc so it's not 100% about the skiing when we cross the pond. But right now, it's all about the skiing.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
@mcspreader, wtf do those diagrams actually show??? apart from mass confusion Smile Is it temp, precip, pressure, wind, humidity?????


Last edited by Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name: on Fri 18-12-15 1:06; edited 1 time in total
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
kitenski wrote:
@mcspreader, wtf do those diagrams actually show??? apart from mass confusion Smile


Ever played play dough spaghetti?! Happy
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
kitenski wrote:
@mcspreader, wtf do those diagrams actually show??? apart from mass confusion Smile


A 5 year old let loose with a box of coloured crayons! Laughing
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@kitenski, bit like europe in general , close agreement on a subject followed by total disagreement on the same subject Puzzled
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mcspreader wrote:

Snowmaggedon 2? Probably not as the freezing level is a tadge high.


Hope not, I've booked next week knowing that conditions are poor, but if there's a massive dump on leaving day then it'll be a tad frustrating Sad
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
GFS is mild and dry for the Alps all the way through to January this morning.

ECM however brings in interesting changes after Christmas with below average temperatures.



That could be something or nothing at this stage (it's still 10 days out), but will be worth keeping an eye on over the next few days to see if it develops any support.
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@SnoodyMcFlude, Sorry, but I hope your really frustrated Madeye-Smiley
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
kitenski wrote:
@mcspreader, wtf do those diagrams actually show??? apart from mass confusion Smile Is it temp, precip, pressure, wind, humidity?????


I'm guessing its the ensembles for the jet stream forecast. Not sure why you would post them in this forum though as many on here have trouble understanding the precipitation/850hpa temperature ensemble charts!!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
gandie wrote:
@SnoodyMcFlude, Sorry, but I hope your really frustrated Madeye-Smiley


Where's your Christmas spirit?! snowHead Would be better for all if it starts snowing sooner, I can cope with loads of snow on Boxing Day, just as long as we've had some in the few days before it.
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You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
kingwhite wrote:
Evertime I log in ... I'm hoping to see the wonderful wizard of Noz saying ECM is showing something ... or lets see if GFS holds that for a couple of runs ....


... but nothing ... meh!

Come on the 17th December ... you did it last year


Textbook Noz this morning ... c'mon the ECM ... we're all behind you snowHead
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Arrived in les Saisies last night. Beautiful sunny day. They're busy moving snow around for opening tomorrow and the north facing slopes not looking bad with snow cover to village level at 1650 and still snow on some rooves but south facing slopes bare except artificial snow. Probably similar picture across much of the area.
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 snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
snowHeads are a friendly bunch.
Actually, south facing not bare but not skiable with lots of grass.
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Can anyone comment on the systems that yr.no use and therefore the veracity of their 10 day forecasts, with the proviso that I've followed this thread for long enough to know 10 days is a loooong time in forecasting! Loving the 'pretty pictures' from mcspreader which illustrate this perfectly.
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
pam w wrote:
Actually, south facing not bare but not skiable with lots of grass.



http://youtube.com/v/Q7oUwPIWCYI
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
@grazzenger, I believe they use ECM. But as you say all the usual caveats about a forecast 10 days out apply. If it is some sort of icon type forecast (cloud, sub, snow, rain) you are referring to then keep in mind that it will almost certainly have been generated using the single operational ECM run. The full ECM run has 50 different members.

http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverwachting/?type=eps_pluim

It's not possible to reflect that spread in a simple forecast.
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
As above, I'm almost 100% sure the yr.no forecast is based on the ECM model. As such it will probably be showing a cooler forecast near the day 10 stage than those based on the GFS models because of the last ECM run (as shown a few posts above).

Tenuous hope for post-xmas that one at the moment, but it's better than no hope.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
I'm going out on the 2nd to Val di Fassa, I've gone from wishing for snow so it looks great, to hoping it stays cool enough to make artificial snow, and doesn't rain. As long as I can get round the Sella Ronda and ski on something, I'm a happy bunny.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
2400 meters in the Southern Alps



still shame to waste the lake

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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Wow that's incredible. Well done that man.
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@nozawaonsen, is it me or has the 12Z GFS fell in line with the last ECM run......biting my nails!

Madeye-Smiley


https://gyazo.com/8f3ae17e56f0be7ad3820e77043cc16f

https://gyazo.com/26d8c4ff6f762e5d34bafee54c92b78e


Last edited by You need to Login to know who's really who. on Fri 18-12-15 18:14; edited 1 time in total
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
AthersT wrote:
@nozawaonsen, is it me or has the 12Z GFS fell in line with the last ECM run......biting my nails!

Madeye-Smiley


Which means? Happy
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You'll need to Register first of course.
I've always quite liked Norway
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@PaulC1984, Turning cold maybe from 27th onwards
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
AthersT wrote:
@PaulC1984, Turning cold maybe from 27th onwards


Please please please be true Happy
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 You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
You'll get to see more forums and be part of the best ski club on the net.
FFS - anyone know what the Emoji for keeping EVERYTHING crossed is??
(- or should that read Emoticon?? - even more debate!) Puzzled
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12z GFS ensembles look just like a continuation of the present pattern, at least as far s Dolomites are concerned Sad
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