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The All New 15/16 Weather Outlook Thread

 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
zinekar wrote:
i went skiing on 29 December and the conditions at this point were far worse. I was saved by the huge dump on 27 December. I'm going on 2 January this year so I've got an extra 4 days cushion. Fingers crossed. snowHead


Much the same here, first thing each morning I check in here, hoping for a little light at the end of the tunnel, doesn't look like it is going to come this year. Last year our first days skiing was 28th and we were saved. This year it is 31st and am seriously thinking of cancelling and taking a hit on the car hire and flights.
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
it's still 2 weeks away. consider cancelling if nothing changes 8-9 days from today
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
looks like a little band of wet for the 21st and 23rd, where the FL will be would appear to be relatively high still, so anything below 1800m could be rain.........not great for lower lying resorts

we re off tomorrow so what will be will be.......the webcams show sufficient white and i think a good propertion of the area will be open.

will still have a great time
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@2waterford, where are you going? and do you ski off piste?
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 Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
Anyway, snowHeads is much more fun if you do.
I am going on the 26th and will not be cancelling, the snow makers are topping the pistes up and although the 3 valleys look a bit sad, there is enough snow for a family ski holiday. Doing my ACL last year means I am going to be taking it easy anyway.
It's still a holiday !!
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under a new name wrote:
@2waterford, where are you going? and do you ski off piste?


We are staying in Lofer in Austria, and flexible about where we will ski, Skiwelt and Ski circus.

We don't ski off piste, we like to stick to nice blues.

All seems OK now but Temps seem high for next week with not much chance of making snow.

When crowds arrive after Christmas will there be much snow left.

We are only considering cancelling at the moment. Will wait another week to see.
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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Some light at the end of the tunnel. Metcheck reckons heavy snow in Avoriaz on the 27th: http://www.metcheck.com/SEASONAL/ski_forecast_14days.asp?resortID=23&Country=France&Resort=Avoriaz

Accuweather doesn't, so don't look at that one, look at metcheck and you will see the light!
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
@stodge, 10 days out? Would be great if it materialises...

@2waterford, webcams look like they've made decent quantities on piste. I'd be confident snowHead
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My nerves cant handle this year after year Shocked ... Its been a good 3 (soon to be 4) trips to the Austrian Alps, but as someone who only gets to ski one week a year and has to travel from South Africa, I reckon I will be heading over to Japan from now on wink
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I can't see any shift in the pattern coming for at least the next 10 days.

Still plenty to enjoy in the mountains mind you, but substantial fresh snow or cold temperatures don't appear to be on the cards.

Beyond that is of course tricky to tell.

But if it doesn't snow you can at least ask the band to play louder and dance harder.
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well 10 days is only the 27th and that's still 5 days before I arrive in zillertal so I'm still optimistic!!
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
Sorry Noz you've probably explained this before but what is it that is blocking the system. Do you have any pictures to illustrate. Would love to understand more. Feel free to ignore me if my question frustrates 😀
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So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
@nozawaonsen, can a blocking high simply dissipate by a change in what is feeding it or a strengthening of an opposing low pressure system? Can this ever be accurately forecast?

What I'm getting at being, that the current ensembles are surely based on current prevailing conditions (blocking Mediterranean high) and can't account for a sudden or unpredictable weakening in the status quo or am I way off the mark?
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
Met Office UK outlook remains very poor as far now as mid Jan. Its looking wet windy and mild for NW UK, which suggests no significant change in the setup for the foreseeable future Sad

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Peter S wrote:
Met Office UK outlook remains very poor as far now as mid Jan. Its looking wet windy and mild for NW UK, which suggests no significant change in the setup for the foreseeable future Sad

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

They said something similar last year and we did at least get something later in Dec/start of Jan (http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/2014/11/09/the-met-offices-outlook-for-the-start-of-winter-2014/) ... But things aren't looking great Confused

EDIT: Just read that again, it does mention temperatures getting closer to normal than of late and some snow on high grounds... I read that as being quite positive snowHead
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
Hope yet ? the jetstream forecast for around 27th to 30th looks like from the north as it progresses, could explain the potential for cold weather from the 27th seen on some forecasts.

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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
We are in Tignes, we are skiing. We can be happy with what we have, but I'd really like to see more snow too.

And sooner rather than later! I'm here until January 3rd.
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
@Little Martin, if something happens around the 27th, where does the snow look like it will fall?
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from the sky Smile

No idea on precipitation might not bring any, but the cannons can get back to work at least
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Pulled the plug last week on our trip to Europe. A bit of a financial pain but when the conditions are sublime in the PNW, BC, Colorado, Tahoe, why spend 10 hours in a metal tube and another 3+ hrs on a train? And storms are set to hit all areas of the Western USA over the next 7-10 days.

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/northwest

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/colorado

https://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

I do hope that the Alps get a right proper winter.
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@Toadman, wise choice i think , next 10 days looks perfect for BC etc, steady snow fall , cool temps Happy , just booked a last min deal to whistler to see me over the sart of jan , then hopefully things getting colder and snowier in the alps for the rest of the season snowHead
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Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
@Toadman, some of the CA resorts deserve a decent winter with the drought they've been having over the last few years.
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Little Martin wrote:
Hope yet ? the jetstream forecast for around 27th to 30th looks like from the north as it progresses, could explain the potential for cold weather from the 27th seen on some forecasts.



That chart looks like its based on the GFS 6Z operational run. That run was a cold outlier from the 29th onwards and has little support, though this doesnt mean it cant happen. From the 28th there is a big spread of the ensemble members with some showing warmer and some showing colder. I would be very wary of any forecast that far ahead which is based on the GFS operational run.
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Trois Vallees goes on the offensive!! http://www.latania.co.uk/blog/?p=9359
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Some parts of Europe and UK shaping up for the warmest December on record...

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@kitenski, rather sneaky and selective choice of pictures though! Picking a webcam at 600m in Mayrhofen where there's no skiing at any time of year, compared to the Hintertux Glacier in the same ski area where there's plenty of skiing rolling eyes

And also incorrect: Ski Amade has 218 pistes open, compared to the 3V's 145 (yes I had to count them all individually as SkiAmade's website is crap).
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 And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
And love to help out and answer questions and of course, read each other's snow reports.
@clarky999, don't shoot the messenger (or cut n paster!!), what do you expect from marketing!
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 So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
So if you're just off somewhere snowy come back and post a snow report of your own and we'll all love you very much
clarky999 wrote:
@kitenski, rather sneaky and selective choice of pictures though! Picking a webcam at 600m in Mayrhofen where there's no skiing at any time of year, compared to the Hintertux Glacier in the same ski area where there's plenty of skiing rolling eyes

And also incorrect: Ski Amade has 218 pistes open, compared to the 3V's 145 (yes I had to count them all individually as SkiAmade's website is crap).


Not just Hintertux - most skiing in Mayrhofen itself is above 1700m on Penken. Unusual for the Tyrol.
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 You know it makes sense.
You know it makes sense.
interesting first minute (for explaining the warmth) on BBC Weather for the week ahead

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35117803
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 Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
Otherwise you'll just go on seeing the one name:
buchanan101 wrote:


Not just Hintertux - most skiing in Mayrhofen itself is above 1700m on Penken. Unusual for the Tyrol.


Also, Mayrhofen/Zillertal is reporting 50cm of fresh on the mountain from the recent snowfall on Bergfex...

http://www.bergfex.com/oesterreich/schneewerte/?sort=BergNeuschnee24,DESC

Looks like Ischgl (20cm), Stubai and the Arlberg (both 15cm) also picked up some accumulation at altitude.
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 Poster: A snowHead
Poster: A snowHead
clarky999 wrote:
@kitenski, rather sneaky and selective choice of pictures though! Picking a webcam at 600m in Mayrhofen where there's no skiing at any time of year, compared to the Hintertux Glacier in the same ski area where there's plenty of skiing rolling eyes

And also incorrect: Ski Amade has 218 pistes open, compared to the 3V's 145 (yes I had to count them all individually as SkiAmade's website is crap).


Yeah I thought it was a bit sneaky, especially as the south facing slopes in the 3V seem to be starting to look a bit bare. The Mayrhofen shot is the real pisstake, clearly in the valley floor while the one at the top of Saulire is bound to have at least some snow on it at this time of year....Serre Chevalier looks a bit brown though, surely that can't be current?
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 Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
Obviously A snowHead isn't a real person
and mayrhofen unlike almost any other Austrian resort doesn't really have skiing down to the valley - just one ski route on the Penken and a run on the Ahorn
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 Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Well, the person's real but it's just a made up name, see?
Serre chevalier is the cucumelle webcam, and yes its current...
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ractys wrote:
Serre chevalier is the cucumelle webcam, and yes its current...


Ouch! Not familar with SC, but did a google search and apparently that's at 2300m? Have pretty much been concentrating what I've been looking at on the 3V but didn't realise there were resorts at that height with virtually no cover at all.
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kitenski wrote:
@clarky999, don't shoot the messenger (or cut n paster!!), what do you expect from marketing!


Sorry, didn't mean too! Eye-roll was at them not you.
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Point sur l'enneigement... in France...

Point sur l'enneigement naturel dans les massifs français au 15 décembre 2015
16/12/2015 http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/31741867-point-sur-l-enneigement-naturel-dans-les-massifs-francais-au-15-decembre-2015

- Autumn remarkably mild and dry.
- Last 10 days of November however were cold and snowy, but did not reach Southern Alps or Corsica.
- Return of sunny and very mild weather has however unermined the earlier snowfall
- No snow below 1500m to 1800 m in the Northern Alps and Pyrenees, 2500m to 2800m in the Southern. French Alps
- Natural snow everywhere shows a significant deficit up to 50% below average (80% in the Southern Alps).

Some sunny and mild weather to come too.

Not all bad mind you...

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 Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
Then you can post your own questions or snow reports...
nozawaonsen wrote:
Not all bad mind you...
Laughing
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 After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
After all it is free Go on u know u want to!
Is that Jimmy Saville on the right?
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@red 27, no I don't think so.
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@nozawaonsen, close but (wait for it)... no cigar?
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